* Press release…

Today, the Hands Off Chicago coalition released a new poll showing large majorities of Chicagoans oppose President Trump’s plans to send ICE into Chicago neighborhoods as well as his proposal to send the National Guard into the city. These results hold true across age, ethnicity, and gender. Click here to see the poll results and cross tabs.

The poll, which surveyed 582 registered Chicago voters on September 11-12, found:

• 63% of Chicagoans oppose sending the National Guard into Chicago, including 56% who strongly oppose, while only 31% support the idea. That number grows to 65% who oppose the idea after respondents were given additional information.

• 66% of Chicagoans oppose increasing federal immigration enforcement, including 56% who strongly oppose, while only 29% support the idea. That number increased to 68% opposed after respondents were given additional context about the proposal.

• A whopping 73% of Chicagoans think Trump is threatening to deploy the National Guard mainly for political reasons as opposed to a goal of reducing crime.

• 76% of respondents – including 92% of African-American respondents – agree more with the statement that while Chicago has problems with crime, the federal government should partner with the city on proven crime reduction solutions, not bring in the military or National Guard. Only 22% agreed more with the statement that Chicago is a crime-ridden “hellhole” and deploying the National Guard would make us safer.

• 69% of respondents said they are somewhat or very worried that deploying the National Guard or aggressive immigration enforcement in Chicago could violate residents’ rights or freedoms.

Hands Off Chicago, a coalition of Chicago and Illinois advocacy organizations, released the following statement in response to the poll:

“The data confirms what we are hearing repeatedly in our communities: Chicagoans do not want and do not need ICE, the border patrol, the National Guard, or the military in our region. Chicagoans overwhelmingly believe Trump is doing this for political reasons, and strongly prefer a partnership with the federal government to address our problems, not a unilateral occupation. While a tiny minority tries to overinflate their presence, the reality is that Chicagoans fiercely oppose Trump’s moves.”

Public Policy Polling conducted the survey.

* Let’s focus on the racial/ethnic crosstabs. This is a poll of 582 Chicago voters with a Margin of Error of +/- 4.1 percent. But the MoE for the subsets we’re looking at are much, much higher…

Hispanic +/- 9.3%
White +/- 6.0
Black +/- 7.5%
Other+/- 16.6%

* With that in mind, we’ll start with Trump’s Chicago approval…

* Trump sending the National Guard into Chicago…

* President Trump has called Chicago a ‘hellhole and ‘most dangerous city in the world.’ He says deploying the National Guard would ‘clean up’ the city, though the National Guard would not have police powers. Local officials say they welcome federal anti-violence resources and law enforcement cooperation, but declining crime rates show there is no emergency that merits a military response and deployment of the National Guard in Chicago. Having heard some more information, let me ask you again: do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose President Trump’s proposal to send the National Guard into Chicago?…

Notice how support rises among Latinos with the “informed” question, but opposition remains the same. That indicates some persuadability. This poll was taken before everything really ramped up, so we’ll see what happens when reality has kicked in.

* Chicago crime…

* Trump increasing federal immigration enforcement in Chicago…

* President Trump has directed Immigration and Customs Enforcement or ICE to aggressively enforce immigration laws nationwide. These enforcement actions have increased deportations of undocumented residents, but have also resulted in cases of unidentified agents detaining and deporting American citizens and valid visa holders, while separating some families. Supporters say that strict enforcement of immigration laws upholds the rule of law, while critics say that recent enforcement action undermines the rule of law, because it lacks due process and transparency. Having heard some more information, let me ask you again: do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the Trump Administration increasing federal immigration enforcement in Chicago through aggressive ICE detainments, expedited deportation removals, and workplace raids?…

No real change in the Latino response with the “informed” question.

* How worried are you that deploying the National Guard or aggressive immigration enforcement in Chicago could violate residents’ rights or freedoms: very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?…

Again, this was taken before the big ramp-up.