I’d give it a B+ for craftsmanship and reach. It’s a weird case though and I’m not sure anyone would expect a guy to go from one shoplifting incident to random shooting.
Have they identified why this guy shot her? It’s a weird story that he just came out from shrubbery and randomly shoots someone.
F-. Baylee: President Biden and Congress offered a deal to Republicans to fix the problem. Private citizen Trump said no. The blood is on your hands. What are you going to do in Illinois Baylee? Roads? Schools? Anything?
The old adage “insanity is doing the same thing expecting different results” comes to mind.
I guess the Bailey campaign thinks a scary Bruckheimer-movie musical score combined with dishonest edits will make for a dog-whistle powerful enough to get their xenophobic base even more motivated than in ‘22 (and ‘24 in the primary against Bost) to carry him over the line this time.
The soft and cuddly Bailey, allegedly chastened by his last election and rededicated to the Lord following his family’s tragedy, was nice while it lasted.
“Then JB Pritzker released him again” is a straight up lie.
All this does is crack open the door to nasty for Team Pritzker. Bailey better buckle up, 2022 is going to seem like a pleasant dream in comparison.
F. Exploiting a young woman’s death to make cheap political points shows he learned nothing from his family tragedy.
- Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:49 pm:
A for folks who believe the lies and misleading implications. F for people who have a better understanding of how things work. I would like to think the electorate has more of the latter folks, but I know the former makes up a pretty large bloc.
- Peoples Republic of Oak Park - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:54 pm:
Democrats need to be able to hold two very distinct ideas in their head and communicate them to the public.
1.Trumps ICE is out of control and is making us less safe.
2. There is a very real danger to unchecked immigration and people like Gorman’s murderer should not be in the country.
To the ad. Its meh. Its red meat to the base and anyone whose opinion on JB changes because of this was not a JB voter to begin with.
Bailey is playing stand-in for Donald Trump. Pritzker gets to practice against Bailey to prep for the Big One next year.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:08 pm:
At best the ad will only appeal to the maga base, who were all voting for Bailey anyway. The best ads expand the reach of potential voters, and this one misses the mark.
It’s a D. The current policies around immigration coming out of Washington don’t play well with the overall population. And in Illinois the contrast is even larger.
Bailey’s challenge lies in appealing to Independents and possibly converting some Democratic voters. While this ad will certainly appeal to his base voters, it will not add any new voters. I would have expected this message in the primary. In the general election it makes no sense.
“Exploiting a young woman’s death to make cheap political points”
This has been the Republican model the last few years. Literally anytime a woman is murdered by a POC, their name gets picked up by the FOX/social media ecosystem and used as a political hammer. Bailey’s campaign is naive enough to think this is good enough to drive up his vote totals in the suburbs. All it does is confirm that he’s pro-ICE and full MAGA.
- DarkestBeforeDawn - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:33 pm:
F- due to the exploitation described above. Shameful.
I give the ad a C. On message. Does not speak to much beyond the established base.
=They are operating on the assumption that if they can just get republican turnout up to presidential election levels they can win=
Explains the huge jump in our national deficit if that is how maga math works. The 2024 election did not earn mean any new seats in Illinois in the house. And trump lost big here.
If Darren Bailey now feels that he needs to fully embrace his inner-MAGA instead of running away from it, I’m fine with that. But he might want to take a look at how that’s playing out across the country in other races.
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:53 pm:
Rated F. This is the reddest of meat to the right wing base. Republicans only have hatred and fear, which is the natural culmination of decades of right wing media and politics. Obviously, they support their own leader with his legal history, and their own history of acquittal in impeachments.
This is the kind of stuff that guarantees superminority status. Illinoisans overall have aspirations other than hypocritical and deliberate stimulation and exploitation of fear and hatred against large groups of the most powerless.
By virtue of the standard the Bailey sets here, it could easily lead into an ad that shows all the bailey gun posts and shooting videos that states “Bailey has blood on his hands” for his support for unfettered gun ownership. I mean, if anyone from the Pritzker campaign happens to read the blog.
- don the legend - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 2:26 pm:
I don’t understand the ad. I thought Bailey would just say “Let’s move on”.
- Give us Barabbas - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 2:32 pm:
I’m looking at his campaign logo and it’s clear he’s feeding the divide between rural and urban populations. The language in the spot and choice of visuals is all “boogah-boogah” against cities and the crime in them, coming to your little agrarian community.
It tells me how little he thinks of his voter base. And no, this won’t earn any new GOP voters. But it eats up republican donor dollars that could have been used more effectively elsewhere else, that’s a plus. I guess..
I will say it again. He has to motivate his base if he has any sort of chance, and I, for one, think he has zero chance. Base first, then persuadables. But base plus persuablables many not add up to 50 percent plus one. Talk about rough sledging. I give the ad an A for his base to get motivated. But again, I won’t say never, but he’s a long shot at best. A loss is almost assured.
The issues are real. It’s the style of the video that is so ridiculous. Don’t follow the Trump model. Keep focused, be exact, be tough and don’t be silly sensational.
D- — Once again the Bailey campaign seems to be failing to understand that the goal of running for office is supposed to be winning a majority of the votes. This ad isn’t going to help him do that.
He didn’t win the GOP’s nomination for Mayor of Loserville and maybe someone should try to convince him that even if he doesn’t have a path to victory at the top of the ticket he should at least be trying to run a campaign that would help others within the GOP to win.
- NIU Grad - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:11 pm:
I guess people can stop thinking about a “new and improved” Darren Bailey. He just can’t help himself.
- ArchPundit - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:17 pm:
I’d give it a B+ for craftsmanship and reach. It’s a weird case though and I’m not sure anyone would expect a guy to go from one shoplifting incident to random shooting.
Have they identified why this guy shot her? It’s a weird story that he just came out from shrubbery and randomly shoots someone.
- Jerry - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:20 pm:
F-. Baylee: President Biden and Congress offered a deal to Republicans to fix the problem. Private citizen Trump said no. The blood is on your hands. What are you going to do in Illinois Baylee? Roads? Schools? Anything?
- CA-HOON! - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:30 pm:
The old adage “insanity is doing the same thing expecting different results” comes to mind.
I guess the Bailey campaign thinks a scary Bruckheimer-movie musical score combined with dishonest edits will make for a dog-whistle powerful enough to get their xenophobic base even more motivated than in ‘22 (and ‘24 in the primary against Bost) to carry him over the line this time.
Let’s see how that works out for him, Cotton…
- Steve - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:31 pm:
I’d rate it an ‘A’. The national media is talking about this story. Bailey , himself, got free media attention off this story.
- Socially DIstant Watcher - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:32 pm:
It’ll help consolidate the Republican base after the primary, but won’t broaden his vote at all
- Demoralized - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:32 pm:
The ad is an F for a general election ad. All this does is speak to his base again. He’s not changing anybody’s mind with this ad.
- Highland, IL - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:35 pm:
For being a professional candidate, Bailey isn’t very good at it.
- here we go again - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:35 pm:
Not bad. I’ll give it a B. Not having to listen to Darren’s Bailey’s Mr. Haney (Green Acres) voice is a big plus.
I guess we’ll just forget the fact Bailey’ Republican chum Bruce Rauner signed the TRUST Act into law and made Illinois a sanctuary state. Cool.
- btowntruth from forgottonia - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:36 pm:
D.
Plays to his base and that’s it.
- Moe Berg - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:42 pm:
The soft and cuddly Bailey, allegedly chastened by his last election and rededicated to the Lord following his family’s tragedy, was nice while it lasted.
“Then JB Pritzker released him again” is a straight up lie.
All this does is crack open the door to nasty for Team Pritzker. Bailey better buckle up, 2022 is going to seem like a pleasant dream in comparison.
- Big Dipper - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:48 pm:
F. Exploiting a young woman’s death to make cheap political points shows he learned nothing from his family tragedy.
- Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:49 pm:
A for folks who believe the lies and misleading implications. F for people who have a better understanding of how things work. I would like to think the electorate has more of the latter folks, but I know the former makes up a pretty large bloc.
- Peoples Republic of Oak Park - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:54 pm:
Democrats need to be able to hold two very distinct ideas in their head and communicate them to the public.
1.Trumps ICE is out of control and is making us less safe.
2. There is a very real danger to unchecked immigration and people like Gorman’s murderer should not be in the country.
To the ad. Its meh. Its red meat to the base and anyone whose opinion on JB changes because of this was not a JB voter to begin with.
- Irma Gerd - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:54 pm:
F. Won’t win over any new voters with this. And, the nerve of JB to lay flowers at the memorial of someone killed by ICE. /s
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 12:58 pm:
Bailey is playing stand-in for Donald Trump. Pritzker gets to practice against Bailey to prep for the Big One next year.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:08 pm:
At best the ad will only appeal to the maga base, who were all voting for Bailey anyway. The best ads expand the reach of potential voters, and this one misses the mark.
- Pundent - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:10 pm:
It’s a D. The current policies around immigration coming out of Washington don’t play well with the overall population. And in Illinois the contrast is even larger.
Bailey’s challenge lies in appealing to Independents and possibly converting some Democratic voters. While this ad will certainly appeal to his base voters, it will not add any new voters. I would have expected this message in the primary. In the general election it makes no sense.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:13 pm:
===At best the ad will only appeal to the maga base===
They are operating on the assumption that if they can just get republican turnout up to presidential election levels they can win
https://www.facebook.com/thomas.devore.92/posts/pfbid02zDDQauPUqZxdXcHn9TbEFo4uyeov93PddqeENaASAsd916n9fgFvAbPK6kLUgavYl
- Former Downstater - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:25 pm:
At least he didn’t use Emma Shafer’s story over the objection her family, like Kristi Noem did.
I’ll give it a passing grade for that. D-
- NIU Grad - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:26 pm:
“Exploiting a young woman’s death to make cheap political points”
This has been the Republican model the last few years. Literally anytime a woman is murdered by a POC, their name gets picked up by the FOX/social media ecosystem and used as a political hammer. Bailey’s campaign is naive enough to think this is good enough to drive up his vote totals in the suburbs. All it does is confirm that he’s pro-ICE and full MAGA.
- DarkestBeforeDawn - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:33 pm:
F- due to the exploitation described above. Shameful.
- Big Dipper - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:35 pm:
I’m also wondering about the choice of blood on his hands being a coincidence or a nod to a trope.
- JS Mill - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:41 pm:
I give the ad a C. On message. Does not speak to much beyond the established base.
=They are operating on the assumption that if they can just get republican turnout up to presidential election levels they can win=
Explains the huge jump in our national deficit if that is how maga math works. The 2024 election did not earn mean any new seats in Illinois in the house. And trump lost big here.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:46 pm:
===And trump lost big here.===
They don’t seem to recognize that flaw in their argument.
- Pundent - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:51 pm:
If Darren Bailey now feels that he needs to fully embrace his inner-MAGA instead of running away from it, I’m fine with that. But he might want to take a look at how that’s playing out across the country in other races.
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:53 pm:
Rated F. This is the reddest of meat to the right wing base. Republicans only have hatred and fear, which is the natural culmination of decades of right wing media and politics. Obviously, they support their own leader with his legal history, and their own history of acquittal in impeachments.
This is the kind of stuff that guarantees superminority status. Illinoisans overall have aspirations other than hypocritical and deliberate stimulation and exploitation of fear and hatred against large groups of the most powerless.
- Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 1:54 pm:
It’s a solid B. Fear sells. Doom sells. Death sells. And Americans buy it like no other people.
- zatoichi - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 2:13 pm:
OK spot for the MAGA crowd, but will not cause anyone else to change their vote
- JS Mill - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 2:19 pm:
=JB PRITZKER HAS BLOOD ON HIS HANDS=
By virtue of the standard the Bailey sets here, it could easily lead into an ad that shows all the bailey gun posts and shooting videos that states “Bailey has blood on his hands” for his support for unfettered gun ownership. I mean, if anyone from the Pritzker campaign happens to read the blog.
- don the legend - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 2:26 pm:
I don’t understand the ad. I thought Bailey would just say “Let’s move on”.
- Give us Barabbas - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 2:32 pm:
I’m looking at his campaign logo and it’s clear he’s feeding the divide between rural and urban populations. The language in the spot and choice of visuals is all “boogah-boogah” against cities and the crime in them, coming to your little agrarian community.
It tells me how little he thinks of his voter base. And no, this won’t earn any new GOP voters. But it eats up republican donor dollars that could have been used more effectively elsewhere else, that’s a plus. I guess..
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 2:34 pm:
===But it eats up republican donor dollars ===
It’s just a video. Costs basically nothing.
- DupageKid - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 2:36 pm:
Grandson of Man —
They only have the senate, house, executive branch, and judiciary.
To the ad, it’s a solid B. Pritzker and the party are vulnerable on this issue. Bailey needs any lever he can pull.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 2:43 pm:
===Bailey needs any lever he can pull. ===
The problem is in how he’s pulling it.
- Tom - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 3:07 pm:
I will say it again. He has to motivate his base if he has any sort of chance, and I, for one, think he has zero chance. Base first, then persuadables. But base plus persuablables many not add up to 50 percent plus one. Talk about rough sledging. I give the ad an A for his base to get motivated. But again, I won’t say never, but he’s a long shot at best. A loss is almost assured.
- Jon - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 3:21 pm:
Can someone repost the statement Bailey put out after ICE executed two American citizens? That’s what I thought.
- Big Jim - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 3:44 pm:
If your claim is true, why are there no criminal proceedings against ICE agents either nationally or at the State level?
- Mason County - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 5:06 pm:
The issues are real. It’s the style of the video that is so ridiculous. Don’t follow the Trump model. Keep focused, be exact, be tough and don’t be silly sensational.
- Patty - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 6:17 pm:
Funny Bailey sounds exactly like lefty college protetsors.
- Candy Dogood - Thursday, Mar 26, 26 @ 10:54 pm:
Late to the party, but here’s my rate.
D- — Once again the Bailey campaign seems to be failing to understand that the goal of running for office is supposed to be winning a majority of the votes. This ad isn’t going to help him do that.
He didn’t win the GOP’s nomination for Mayor of Loserville and maybe someone should try to convince him that even if he doesn’t have a path to victory at the top of the ticket he should at least be trying to run a campaign that would help others within the GOP to win.