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* Crain’s…
Moody’s Analytics, which prepared a sobering long-term economic forecast for COGFA in February, already has been trimming its growth projections for Illinois and other states. Recently, Moody’s cut its forecast for Illinois GDP growth by half to 0.8% for 2025 and reduced its expectation for employment growth to 0.4% from 0.6%.
“Revenue growth is going to be weaker than we were expecting in previous forecasts, and state and local government hiring is going to slow because funds are going to be drying up,” says Sarah Crane, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s going to be a tight budget situation for most state and local governments.”
Job growth, which climbed modestly in the first quarter, “is going to flatten out for sure,” Crane says. “We already were expecting things to wind down in terms of job growth. Now we’re all but certain it’s going to happen. We’ve been surprised before by the strength of the U.S. labor market and job creation, but . . . we do think that things will go sideways for a few quarters.”
* So far, though, jobs are holding up…
The U.S. labor market remained resilient in April, with employers adding 177,000 jobs, a solid showing despite ongoing economic uncertainty that has caused many employers to put hiring plans on hold.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent, near historic lows, according to a jobs report released Friday by the Labor Department. Economists had largely expected growth to cool, following the addition of 185,000 jobs in March, figures that were revised downward.
The labor market has been a pillar of strength for years, helping to prop up the economy through a period of high inflation and elevated interest rates. Economists have been on high alert that surrounding weakness — including data this week showing the U.S. economy shrank in the first three months of 2025 — could drag down the labor market. But, so far, the slowdown has been gradual.
As I’ve noted before, jobs are the real issue here. If jobs crater, we’re in for a world of hurt. And the same applies if Congress approves huge cuts to Medicaid and other programs that the state relies on.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, May 2, 25 @ 1:50 pm
Previous Post: George Ryan (Updated x2)
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MAGA’s War on Science
Why do these people believe that ignorance is strength?
Paul Krugman
May 2
From Paul Krugman
First, about the employment report. I’ve seen some descriptions of this as a post-tariff report. C’mon, people. Job numbers for a given month are actually for the pay period including the 12th of the month. So these numbers are for early April, reflecting the number of jobs at most a few days after Trump’s Liberation Day (ugh) announcement of massive tariffs. They tell us nothing — positive or negative — about the tariffs’ impact.
Comment by very old soil Friday, May 2, 25 @ 2:45 pm
From the BLS, the preliminary nonfarm jobs added in January, February, and March (when the economy shrank 0.3% annualized) were…
Illinois: +11,300 (+0.2%)
Indiana: +500 (+0.0%)
Iowa: -500 (-0.0%)
Kentucky: +9,100 (+0.4%)
Missouri: +6,300 (+0.2%)
Wisconsin: +7,600 (+0.2%)
The region overall is starting to experience some weakness.
Nationally, the February and March jobs were revised down by 58,000 total in this latest report, so hopefully Illinois still added jobs in the first quarter as well as in this good April number.
Comment by Frank Manzo IV Friday, May 2, 25 @ 3:06 pm
Illinois Flash Index Stable at 102.4
“State tax revenues for April (adjusted for inflation) increased compared to last year for all three major taxes. Individual income tax receipts were strong, registering the highest monthly total in history, impacted by taxes on capital gains from robust equity returns in 2024. Both sales and corporate tax revenues increased more modestly.”
https://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/april-illinois-flash-index-remained-stable
Comment by Frank Manzo IV Friday, May 2, 25 @ 3:20 pm
==Illinois: +11,300 (+0.2%)==
+11,400 just from government
Comment by City Zen Friday, May 2, 25 @ 4:12 pm