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* Council on Criminal Justice…
On Thursday (July 24), the Council on Criminal Justice will release its Mid-Year 2025 Crime Trends report, examining changes in 13 offenses across a sample of 42 American cities, including Chicago. The analysis shows that:
• Homicide and other violent crimes continue to drop below pre-2020 levels, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and nationwide social justice protests.
• Reported levels of 12 of the 13 offenses were lower in the first half of 2025 than in the first half of 2024, with domestic violence the lone exception. Motor vehicle theft is the only offense that remains higher than mid-year 2019 levels.
• In Chicago: Homicide decreased 33% from mid-year 2024 to mid-year 2025 and is down 25% from mid-year 2019. Motor vehicle theft decreased 29% from mid-year 2024 to mid-year 2025, but remained 80% higher than mid-year 2019.
In the cities studied, homicides were down 17 percent from July of last year through the end of June this year. Homicides decreased nationally by 14 percent from July of 2019 through June of 2025. So, Chicago is about double the decreases in the other states.
* Percent change in homicide in 29 cities, January to June, 2019-25…
Homicides in Chicago are also down 13 percent from July of last year through the end of June this year. New York City homicides increased by 17 percent during the same time period.
Chicago homicides increased every July-June 12-month period starting in July of 2020 through June of last year: 30 percent 20-21; 39 percent 21-22; 27 percent 22-23; 4 percent 23-24.
* Background…
This report updates CCJ’s previous studies of crime changes in larger American cities. The series began during the early months of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, and this report extends the analyses with data through June 2025. The 42 cities included in this study were selected based on the availability of data at the time of data collection in early July 2025 (see the Appendix for the full list). They range from Cary, NC, the smallest, with about 182,000 residents, to New York, the largest, with around 8.3 million residents. The mean population of the cities for which crime data were available is approximately 822,000, while the median population is roughly 510,000.
* And more from the NY Times…
The Real-Time Crime Index, published by Jeff Asher, a New Orleans-based crime analyst, tracks a much larger number of cities than the council does. That index, which follows more than 400 police agencies, shows that murders are down 20 percent through May, compared with the same period in 2024. […]
In addition, the Major Cities Chiefs Association, an organization of police executives from 69 of the largest cities in the U.S., reported double-digit declines in four violent crime categories in most of the cities they represent in the first three months of this year as compared with last year. Homicides and robbery were each down 20 percent, while rape fell 14 percent and aggravated assault was down 11 percent. […]
That the trends have been national in scope has challenged assumptions that local factors, like policy decisions or funding for safety programs, are the most important. “It feels like what’s happened over the last five years has upended some long-held beliefs about crime,” [Adam Gelb, the president and chief executive officer of the Council on Criminal Justice] said. “In particular, that levels of crimes and patterns are very locally driven and determined.” […]
“The theories and credit-taking claims are abundant,” Mr. Gelb said. “And a lot of the arguments have familiar contours. The right says it’s tougher enforcement and penalties. The left says it’s better programs and community investment. The bottom line is it’s likely a blend of both.”
Except penalties have not increased in Illinois since 2019. Some might say the same about enforcement.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 11:37 am
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Incarceration in Cook County is up significantly under States Attorney Eileen Burke
Comment by Johnny B Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 12:20 pm
I am always leery of stories like this that compare cities with large number of homicides to smaller markets. I think Lincoln averages 8 homicides a year. All it takes is one person to skew those percentages. This year Joe Blow kills 3 people. Homicides are up 40%. Next year no mass shooter so homicides are down 30%. I know you can drill down and find rates per 100,000 etc but these headlines can be misleading.
Comment by Been There Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 12:27 pm
===I am always leery of stories like this===
Then ignore the rates for smaller cities and focus on Chicago compared to NYC, Philly, etc.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 12:29 pm
=I am always leery=
Remember that when comparing states like Indiana to Illinois when it comes to financial data as well.
At the end of the day Chicago had a significant drop in homicides. That is good for people.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 12:38 pm
Good. We could all use a little good news in our sauna time.
Comment by Mason born Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 12:47 pm
=== Incarceration in Cook County is up significantly under States Attorney Eileen Burke ===
Is Eileen Burke the reason crime declined in nearly every other major American city, too?
Give it a rest, man.
Homicides are down. Let’s just be happy about it for a New York minute.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 1:46 pm
===Incarceration in Cook County is up significantly===
Jail population July 23, 2024: 4,964
Jail population July 23, 2025: 5,874
18 percent increase.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 1:57 pm
However, when you look back further (because crime began falling last year), You’ll see these jail population numbers for July 23…
2023: 5,623
2022: 5,565
2021: 5,896
All close to what it was yesterday.
But crime rates were higher then.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 2:03 pm
Trump will be weighing in shortly claiming credit.
Comment by Blue Dog Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 2:26 pm
What’s going on with Lincoln, Nebraska?
And how can we make it Pete Ricketts’ fault?
Comment by Candy Dogood Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 2:39 pm
That’s a weird list of cities. I wonder why they have Lincoln, but not Omaha, why they have Long Beach but not LA or San Francisco.
Comment by Duck Duck Goose Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 4:42 pm
=== I wonder why===
Read the post.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 5:21 pm
I haven’t checked any of the links but is there a corresponding decrease in domestic violence? Could taking away cash bail as an option for violent offenders be saving lives?
Comment by Excitable Boy Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 6:18 pm
===is there a corresponding decrease in domestic violence===
Opposite.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 6:40 pm
- Opposite -
Just reread the post, missed that part.
Comment by Excitable Boy Thursday, Jul 24, 25 @ 7:08 pm