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More gridlock ahead?

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Illinois

* My syndicated column takes a look at the gridlock in our future…

For years, reporters and pundits have said that Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan preferred Republican governors because Madigan wanted to be the state’s most powerful Democrat.

There is some truth to that. Madigan hasn’t played well at all with the two Democratic governors he’s served under as speaker. He battled constantly with Rod Blagojevich, and he’s made Pat Quinn squirm time and time again, including holding a news conference during which he repeatedly castigated Quinn for “flip-flopping.”

But there always was much more going on than just Madigan’s desire to be the absolute top dog. As we’ve seen time and time again over the decades, Madigan prefers to share the pain of governing with the other party in order to deflect blame from his own party. It’s one way he’s held on to power for so long. And it’s tough to do that without a Republican governor.

A Republican governor usually can bring Republican legislative votes on to a bill that wouldn’t be there otherwise. Every income tax hike that’s ever passed was done under a Republican governor. Some of the biggest ever goodies for Chicago were nabbed because a Republican governor helped the Democrats bring GOP legislators onto the roll calls.

That all ended when Rod Blagojevich became the first Democratic governor elected in 26 years. Since then, we’ve had almost seven solid years of grinding gridlock.

This past year, for instance, Madigan said over and over that he wouldn’t advance important legislation without significant Republican votes, including tax increases and reforms to the pension systems to balance the state’s outrageous $11 billion budget deficit. The Senate Democrats passed a tax hike all by themselves, but Madigan refused to touch the issue without Republican votes even though he had more than enough Democratic votes to pass a bill on his own.

Madigan is so politically cautious because he is so power-hungry. By sharing the pain in a bipartisan manner, voters can’t totally blame Madigan’s majority party. So it’s highly doubtful that Madigan ever will budge on a hugely unpopular but desperately needed tax hike without GOP votes. Voters don’t care much about the deficit, but they would care - a lot - about any drastic measures to erase that deficit.

And right now, anyway, there’s really not much benefit for the Republican Party to cooperate. Why should it “share the pain” by helping the Democrats solve a problem for which the Democrats are universally deemed responsible?

Perhaps the only way this will change is if a Republican governor is elected and decides that a tax hike is necessary. Then, some Republican legislators will feel an obligation to support their governor. A Republican governor also will have all the usual bags of goodies to cajole and pressure the party’s members.

We actually saw a little bit of that during the spring session when two former Republican governors, Jim Thompson and Jim Edgar, made calls to GOP members on the income tax hike plan. It didn’t work, mainly because neither of them has the power to do much of anything. But what we essentially witnessed back then was an admission that these major issues won’t be advanced in the House without a big-time Republican pulling strings behind the scenes.

A few years ago, I asked Madigan why he didn’t just find somebody to run against Blagojevich in the 2006 Democratic primary. Madigan replied the last time he did that (when he was a point person against the anti-Machine Democrat Dan Walker) it led to 26 years of uninterrupted Republican rule, more than just implying that he’d rather have a “bad” Democrat as governor than a “good” Republican.

Some wonder whether Madigan will quietly lie down next fall if the governor’s race looks winnable by the GOP and if the Republicans nominate a candidate who can “do business.”

I was, however, recently reminded by one of Madigan’s guys that the new legislative district maps have to be drawn during the next governor’s term. Madigan will want total control of that process in order to hold on to power, and he’ll need a cooperative, partisan governor to guarantee his control.

In other words, if a Democrat wins the governor’s race next year and Madigan doesn’t radically alter his governing style by actually doing something constructive with his majority no matter what the Republicans say, this horrific gridlock will continue unabated for another four disastrous years.

Wonderful news, eh?

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 9:31 am

Comments

Madigan best hope his strategy doesn’t result in him losing control of the House to the GOP…

Comment by Segatari Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 9:39 am
Good article. No - not wonderful news for us at all.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 9:40 am
Good point: “Every income tax hike that’s ever passed was done under a Republican governor.”

And not only that, a Republican governor first instituted the state income tax. That was of course Richard Olgivie. Jim Thompson was then the first to raise it.

Comment by just sayin' Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 9:48 am
Great analysis Rich,
But I think that we will get an income tax hike after the general in november.

Comment by Get it straight Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 9:49 am
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the voters in Madigan’s district rightfully held him personally accountable for the state’s mess in his next election. After all, hasn’t he been the most common factor in years of bad political gamesmanship vs. doing what is in the state’s / state’s residents best interest?

Comment by TiredofGamesmanship Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 9:52 am
Why would madigan want to change anything…the last 7 years under his rule have worked out great. We are now the second-worst state in nearly every economic category.

Comment by Easy Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 9:59 am
Well… Now I wish I could delete my comment. Knowing a little about Chicago area politics, I realize there is a real risk we could get someone even worse if Madigan were to lose.

Comment by TiredofGamesmanship Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 10:00 am
Master of the House & State…

Someone, anyone, PLEASE write a book about Mike Madigan, along the same vein of the book LBJ: Master of the Senate.

Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 10:21 am
==Someone, anyone, PLEASE write a book about Mike Madigan, along the same vein of the book LBJ: Master of the Senate.==

How about a collaboration by two ex-governors of Illinois with plenty of time on their hands, and no place to go?

Comment by Anon Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 10:31 am
LBJ took plenty of risks as both Senator and President, particularly in the area of civil rights.

If you read the transcripts of his Oval Office conversations and telephone calls, he outlines with eery precision how the civil rights acts passed while he was president would lead to the rise of the GOP in the south.

He was a master strategist and a very complex man, but in some cases, he did the right things just because they were the right things to do, politics be stuffed.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 10:40 am
Well, the book would need biographical component/sketch. We need an accounting of the childhood/teen/young adult years. the two ex-gov’s wouldn’t be able to provide that key examination. But, their thoughts on Madigan as speaker and a political force with which they had to reckon would certainly be helpful.

Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 10:41 am
I guess everyone is willing to throw the most disadvantaged under the bus and back up a few times….I say lets all vote for the Green Party and start over….I am so tired of all of the egos, short sightedness and plan greed

Merry Christmas…..

Comment by CCC in Illinois Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 10:50 am
Great insights Rich, One concern for the Speaker may be if the State’s economy and budget is not fixed soon, he may not have to worry because the electorate may finally just rise up and throw all the bums out.

Merry Christmas to you and everyone.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 11:00 am
Sorry word, but as a senator LBJ was not exactly pro-civil rights. in fact he was a dixiecrat through and through!

“He was a master strategist and a very complex man, but in some cases, he did the right things just because they were the right things to do, politics be stuffed.”—Wordslinger

I think this is true of Mike Madigan too.

Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 11:11 am
Gridlock is good.

Comment by Gordon Gecko Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 11:12 am
The wreckage of the State finances will not let things continue for four years after the General election. I’m not sure how far along this coming year will go before things reach a head.

Our only hope is that the general economy will improve and the decline in revenues will reverse on its own. The current legislators are clearly not cut out to make any difficult decisions.

It is amazing how far brinkmanship and a desire to keep the status quo will keep the current power structure in place.

Comment by Plutocrat03 Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 11:19 am
Compare Madigan to Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. The latter are willing to risk losing control of Congress to pass health care reform. They realize power for power’s sake is wrong. Many moderate Dems told Bill Clinton in 1993 they were sacrificing their careers with their vote for the 1993 budget and they were right: it brought the most sustained period of prosperity most in my generation will ever know. And much good government came out of the Clinton administration even after the GOP took Congress (generally progressive legislation with fiscal sanity).

The problem isn’t “gridlock,” it’s politicians like Mike Madigan.

Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 11:20 am
At least Capt Fax was able to debunk his own theory (which was not a feature he offered subscribers earlier in the week)
Those who call for terms limits and ouster should really worry about what happens next,which is likely to be near total control by special interests.
Keep in mind this is a state that put a nuke on the shores of Lake Michigan.
At least Madigan provides some common sense decision making and a strong caucus to stand up to the special interests.

0

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 11:21 am
I really don’t see the recipients of human services getting thrown under the bus this year, primarily because of the likelihood of substantial additional financial aid from the feds (although they won’t be calling it a simulus). With the mid-terms coming up, many political observers in Washington have noted that the Obama administration will focus primarily on economic issues in 2010, including jobs creation and the maintenance of a middle class safety net until the economy recovers. The states are likely to get considerable revenue this year from the jobs bill heading for the President’s signature. One of the stated purposes is to prevent state and local government layoffs. Substantial additional funds for other purposes will also likely be available.

The availability of federal monies is likely to be a challenge for our Pat. It makes the doomsday scenarios he so fond of less compelling as he pursues a middle class income tax increase. He’d prefer to have both the federal money and the middle class increase. Should he pretend the money isn’t there and keep doomsday-ing. Or should he actually pay the bills.

Comment by cassandra Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 11:21 am
“Our only hope is that the general economy will improve and the decline in revenues will reverse on its own. The current legislators are clearly not cut out to make any difficult decisions.”

Isn’t our state too far in the red for that to happen/really help at this point. And, our current government is not exactly a pro-business or business friendly type. His history, er 30 years worth of baggage of ’sticking it to’ big business is another reason why he isn’t exactly helpful in the governor’s office. So assuming that the economy does do a miraculous turnaround in the next six months maximum, it is highly doubtful that the current governor will be able to attract business to Illinois.

Now, if (only) we had a governor like Mitch Daniels, of Indiana, currently governing our state…

Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 11:39 am
Mike Madigan is Illinois’ best living argument for term limits. The system is rotten with corruption and nothing will change as long as the same players keep being sent back to Springfield.

Comment by Aldyth Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 12:47 pm
Aldyth,

be cautious of what you ask for. The special interests (Com ED) and the rest of them want your money without representation. Let me ask you, would you give up your best baseball players if you were the head coach ? Or would you protect your players in hopes of winning for the people ? 7 years of Blagovich, and a recession are not going to be remedied in 12 months..What has the Republican Party suggested that would have put us in better economic conditions ? Nothing. We need to solitify the middle class in this state, and Im confident that the R Party wont be in favor of that policy. What you will have are tax cuts for the wealthy, again, that we just had under the failed Bush policies. If it wasnt for Madigan can you imagine what Blago and all the special interests would have done to us over the last 7 years ??

Comment by Stallion Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:24 pm
I agree with -Stallion-…Say what you want about Madigan, but there is a list of things that Madigan prevented Blagojevich from doing while he was in Office. Not all people forget.

Comment by anon Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:34 pm
Cross is equally willing to place partisan advantage above the common good. Several members of the House GOP caucus recognize there must be an income tax hike, but he hasn’t given them the green light.

Comment by reformer Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:36 pm
It is a mistake to cast aspersion toward businesses as the only special interests in town.

The status quo consists of regulated business, union representatives and citizens who have placed themselves on the state gravy train. None of them want to lose their position at the trough.
No one is standing up for the taxpayer or front line state worker.

It is a shame. Ultimately eveyone loses. It is a strange game.

Comment by Plutocrat03 Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:49 pm
The Fall of the Speaker of the House from Illinois: a true story

The Speaker’s power was absolute. And he reveled in it.

And the Speaker was utterly ruthless in its exercise. No one in the chamber dared cross their autocratic Speaker.

The imperious and impetuous parliamentarian reserved for himself the right to appoint all committee chairs and members, and he made a point of choosing only sycophants completely beholden to him.

Because he also chaired the Rules Committee, the iron-fisted Speaker controlled every detail of the legislative agenda. No bills advanced without his approval. No member could even take the floor without the consent of the dictatorial Speaker from Illinois.

One day, a courageous band of members saw and seized their chance. With many of the all-powerful Speaker’s fawning minions absent from the chamber, a resolution was introduced to remove the Speaker as the Rules Committee chair, and to limit his authority over the committees.

After an epic day and night of maneuvering, the Speaker finally ruled the resolution out of order. Chamber members then forced — and won — a vote to override the ruling of the Speaker. They then proceeded to adopt the resolution, thereby ending the Speaker’s brutish and thuggish rule.

So — of whom do you think I speak?

A resident of Danville, Illinois, Joseph G. Cannon was speaker of the United States House of Representatives between 1903 and 1911.

www.politicsol.com/govsites/congress-bio-guide/C000121.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Gurney_Cannon

Comment by Scott Summers Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:54 pm
What I find troubling about Speaker Madigan is….his apparent lack of concern over Illinois’ budgetary woes. He doesn’t display any sense of urgency. If he is waiting for Republicans to sign on to a tax increase, I don’t see why this spring would be any different from last spring, with the Republican gubernatorial candidates all saying we don’t need one. So we probably wait at least until Spring 2011—9 months from the next primary, the apogee from the nearest state rep election.

I recall someone on this site once saying: Madigan doesn’t tell you what he wants, you have to figure it out. That’s unusual—most politicians articulate a vision regarding their policy preferences, and a roadmap to get there. When asked a really tough question, Speaker Madigan turns on that 1000 watt smile, which is not at all mirthful, and says…nothing of substance.

Comment by rudy Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:57 pm
I should have said, can you imagine what Blago, Emil jones, and the special interests would have done to the people of the state? Emil Jones cant be forgotten in this equation.

Comment by Stallion Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:00 pm
So we will have to wait until after next November’s election for our elected representatives to address the budgetary woes of the state? Very sad, with the saddest part being that probably 90% of those elected reps lacking the backbone to do their jobs will be re-elected.

Comment by Jimmy Joe Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:32 pm
The budgetary woes need to start being addressed at the Federal level. That will in effect trickel down with the creation of jobs, thus revenue for the state, we just cant print our way out of this. Under what US President did this crisis happen ? Regulating banks was abandoned, now we all suffer, R’s & D’s…

Comment by Stallion Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:04 pm
I agree with Rudy…I can forgive or at least understand his desire to preserve himself and his majority, but his predilection to help run State finances into the ground baffles me…he doesn’t deplete his ow resources, why does he seem hellbent to sink the State’s…maybe it helps to preserve his power, but how?

Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:20 pm
Agree with Rich that Madigan will support Quinn in order to control the gerrymandering, er, re-districting, process.

This assumes, of course, that ‘10 is not a blood bath for D’s ala l994.

Comment by Dem observer Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:05 pm
Stallion, the fed doesn’t need a balanced budget, the state does. It doesn’t matter what caused it, it is the GAs and the governors job to balance the budget.

Comment by Jimmy Joe Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:11 pm
MJM has been in power how many years for people to figure out his ego and power is what is important to him. He has been a State Rep since he was 28 (1970) and now he is pushing 68 (04/19)and for all the time in the middle he has been the #1 Dem in Illinois. This began when he helped Walker go to jail and Jim Thompson became Governor in 1977. It further increased in 1983 when he first became Speaker and remains soo today. This is the main reason his adopted Lisa remained AG, because daddy wasn’t ready to step down. On the other hand, with Madigan reaching 40 yrs in power and Illinois turning 192 years, there will become a point when the two cannot go on forever!

Comment by It only took how many years for people to figure this out??? Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:27 pm
===in power how many years for people to figure out his ego and power is what is important to him===

Could you be sillier?

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:33 pm
It is overstatement to state that Speaker Madigan operates by iron precepts. One cannot stay in power as long and as much as he has except by being flexible to circumstances, like any good politician. He is an extremely good politician, but that is part of the problem.

Madigan wants Republican participation only when it suits his purposes, either to get a bill passed or to cover his butt with the voters. I note that Madigan simply ignored the House Republicans in recent years - until he needed their votes in overtime session.

In the end, the gridlock is Madigan’s child. Give Illinois a Republican Governor who won’t “do business” with the Chicago Machine and expect Madigan to declare war, and force yet another “grinding gridlock” to get his way. I would encourage any upcoming Republican Governor to pick up that gauntlet and hurl it right back, as the problem has been the ever more strongly laced power of Madigan, not the succession of governors.

Comment by Bubs Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 5:02 pm
It must be flattering to Mr. Madigan that so many invest him with almost supernatural political powers.

Comment by cassandra Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 6:49 pm
Auto Industry, Banking, Health - All taken over nee “rescued” by the Administration. Perhaps Illinois is economically ripe to be “rescued” or should we simply jump to Nationalized! Yes! We can be a territory again . . . . and MJM will probably be the Territorial Governor.

Comment by A Citizen Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 8:57 pm
–Sorry word, but as a senator LBJ was not exactly pro-civil rights. in fact he was a dixiecrat through and through! –

As usual, WCW, you’re in over your head. LBJ rammed through the Civil Rights Act of 1957 (psst, he was Senate Majority Leader then). He, Gore and Kevauver were the only Southern federal lawmakers not to sign the Southern Manifesto (look it up).

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 10:38 pm
Also, Dixiecrat was a term for those who supported Strom Thurmond when he walked out of the 1948 convention for a third-party run against Truman. Johnson supported Truman.

Not to let facts get in the way.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 11:36 pm
lake county “democrat,” Mike Madigan is the reason that Illinois Democrats had any relevance whatsoever in the 1990s, and consequently, the reason that Dems now control the GA. Food for thought.

With a GOP Senate GOP governors, the fact that Madigan was able to maintain a Dem majority in the House four out of five elections in the 1990s - under a GOP map, mind you - is the only reason Dems had a say in anything. Couple that with the fact that if not for a Dem House majority in 2001 - thanks again to Madigan - to block a GOP Senate and GOP governor, the GOP would have had a free hand to draw the 2001 map. How many progressive laws do you think you see under a GOP Senate still controlled by Pate Philip? Minimum wage hike? See ya. Prescription drug discount plan? I don’t think so. It’s not unreasonable to suggest that Pate doesn’t retire unless the Senate goes Dem in 2003. Maybe, maybe not. But I don’t think Frank Watson was known for being a progressive, either.

Yes, let’s compare Madigan to Pelosi and Reid, the latter who at least right now is in danger of getting himself re-elected, let alone ensuring a Dem majority in the Senate. Yep, that’s the tops for leadership. Get Dem majorities and give ‘em right back because you can’t pick your battles. Madigan has proven throughout his career that he’s willing to do the politically unpopular by passing tax increases in 1989 and 1997. But endangering the electoral success of your party the election before the remap is just stupid.

The Dems may be in a precarious situation in 2010 because of the sour economy and no thanks to Blago, but MJM is not going to hand the House over to Cross on a silver platter. For pete’s sake, you can’t do anything for your party if you lose the majority.

Comment by Professor Chaos Tuesday, Dec 22, 09 @ 12:57 am