Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

* UPDATED x1 * Poll: Jim Ryan has 7-point lead over Quinn, trails Hynes by 2

Posted in:

Illinois
Polls

* Last week, I wondered aloud why Rasmussen Reports didn’t bother to match the two Democratic gubernatorial candidates against Republican frontrunner Jim Ryan. Well, RR has now conducted another poll, and the results aren’t encouraging for Gov. Quinn’s backers…

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Illinois voters finds former state Attorney General Jim Ryan leading incumbent Democratic Governor Pat Quinn 46% to 39%. Nine percent (9%) of Illinois voters like some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Ryan’s is within two points of Illinois Comptroller Daniel Hynes, who hopes to wrest the Democratic nomination from Quinn. In that match-up, Hynes attracts 42% of the vote while Ryan gets 40%. Seven percent (7%) opt for another candidate. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided.

Quinn and Hynes both polled ahead of the other major Republican contenders last week, although Hynes polled marginally better than Quinn.

Good point from Rasmussen…

It’s important to note that at this stage, the close contest between Quinn and Hynes may be depressing the Democratic vote in match-ups with the Republicans. Once the party selects a gubernatorial candidate in its February 2 primary, supporters of the losing candidate can be expected to begin moving into the winner’s column.

That theory bears fruit in the crosstabs, which I’ll discuss with subscribers tomorrow.

Back to the pollster…

Ryan carries male voters over both Quinn and Hynes. He has a nine-point advantage among female voters against Quinn but loses women by 10 points to Hynes.

Voters not affiliated with either party strongly prefer the Republican over either of the Democrats. […]

In a generic Illinois gubernatorial ballot match-up in October, a Democratic candidate held a 43% to 37% edge over a Republican.

Ryan is viewed more favorably than any other GOP candidate and his favorables are in roughly the same territory as the two Democrats.

Toplines are here. Crosstabs are here.

Methodology…

Illinois Survey of 500 likely Voters conducted December 20, 2009. Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

This is a one-day, Sunday poll. There are all sorts of problems with that, but the automated dial is the least of them.

Discuss.

*** UPDATE *** Jim Ryan was at the Daily Herald edit board today and talked about Stu Levine and his own health…

“Stu Levine gave me a lot of money over my entire career,” said Ryan, who also was DuPage County State’s Attorney for three terms. “I thought he did it because he believed in me. He did a lot for me, I didn’t do anything for him except to be his friend.” […]

Ryan went on to say he is anticipating a barrage of attacks in the final weeks of the campaign about Levine from others in the seven-candidate primary race.

“I’m not going to cower,” he said. “If people think I’m going to back down because of that, they are wrong.” […]

Ryan also talked his health Monday. The 63-year-old battled non-Hodgkin’s large cell lymphoma cancer three times, most recently during his first campaign for governor eight years ago.

“I think I’m healthy or I wouldn’t do this,” Ryan said. “If that changes, you will know because I will probably won’t stay in the race.”

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:32 pm

Comments

What is the over/under on which date Andy McKenna is up on TV with his Stu Levine spot???

Comment by Big Policy Nerd Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:42 pm
Memo to Hynes: focus on the women.

Memo to Laborguy: tell me again that Quinn is the stronger D candidate in the general because you know more about polling than I do.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:42 pm
The hits come after New Years.

The crosstabs on this are interesting. For instance, Ryan does “better” in the African American voting block against Quinn than he does with Hynes. That one was surprising, in particular.

Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:43 pm
McKenna also has serious egg on his face after the triumphalistic email blast he sent Friday titled “Polling Confirms McKenna Surging in Race for Governor… in best shape to defeat Democrats”. and “McKenna in best shape to win”.

FAIL

Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:47 pm
This poll should help Ryan refute the accusation from opponents that he couldn’t win the general. On his radio show last night, Tom Roeser expressed that Ryan-can’t-win view. Rep. Franks seconded the notion.

Comment by reformer Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:53 pm
close contest between Quinn and Hynes may be depressing the Democratic vote in match-ups with the Republicans

But would that theory not work the other way as well? As in making any given R look worse against a D?

Comment by Pat Collins Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:55 pm
===But would that theory not work the other way as well?===

No, because the crosstabs don’t show the same thing. Repub voters tend to support the two Dems about equally among all GOP candidates.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 1:59 pm
his has to be absolutely demoralizing to McKenna & Co. He spends 1.5 million dollars in the past month on ads and still can’t catch Ryan for the nomination, let alone beat Quinn in November 2010. I don’t care how much money he attempts to throw at Jim Ryan. He is running out of time to buy an election against a guy who clearly has broad public support in the Primary and General Election.

Comment by Public can't be bought Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:06 pm
Once Andy McKenna goes up with the $1 million ad buy featuring Stu Levine, Tony Rezko, state pension boards, private jets and all night drug-fueled hotel parties, that will drive those Ryan negatives up.

Comment by Burrito Bandit Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:14 pm
Is Andy McKenna, who preached not trashing his own for years, really going to launch smear ads on a fellow Republican who can win?

Comment by Alex Carbo Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:17 pm
And when McKenna goes up with those attack ads, he will have become the Jim Oberweis of 2010- a wealthy negative campaigner who has little to offer in his own candidacy.

Comment by HRH Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:34 pm
The Ryan Juggernot rolls forward!

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:34 pm
@ Alex Carbo- Is Andy McKenna, who preached not trashing his own for years, really going to launch smear ads on a fellow Republican who can win?–

Well… If McKenna didn’t want to go the Stu Levine route, he could run ads with some quotes from the Illinois State Police and the Tribune Editorial Board regarding Ryan’s actions in the Nicarico murder case. That could do the trick too.

Comment by Big Policy Nerd Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:34 pm
Maybe, HRH. But Oberweis was almost purely negative.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:35 pm
I think the Tribune endorsed Jim Ryan so that would be a stretch too.

Comment by Alex Carbo Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:36 pm
If McKenna can bring now Ryan with $1,000,000 in ads then I think he steers the nomination toward Dillard or Brady. Not many leaving Ryan will move to the man attacking him JMHO.

Comment by downstate hack Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:41 pm
@ Alex Carbo- I think the Tribune endorsed Jim Ryan so that would be a stretch too.

From Eric Zorn’s webpage on the Nicarico murder case….”Cruz was acquitted at a 1995 retrial, and DuPage shortly thereafter dropped charges against Hernandez. At the time, the Tribune editorialized: “None of those involved in the Cruz prosecution deserves ever again to enjoy a position of public honor or trust.”

Comment by Big Policy Nerd Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:42 pm
Jim Ryan *can’t* win the general. Poll numbers 11 months out before the primary is finished is little more than curb appeal.

For as much as conservatives supposedly scare suburban women, you think they’ll break for the guy at the center of the Nicarico screw up?

You think the reform crowd will break for Stu Levine’s BFF? (Fair or not, politics is perception and Ryan can’t defend himself on Levine)

You think conservatives will support the gun grabber and tax hiker?

Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:45 pm
The average Illinoisan doesn’t care about Stu Levine. All of that stuff with him was inside politics. Get over it! Voters have and were never really into it for that matter. I don’t think they were keeping tabs on Levine/Rezko to the extent that political-insider folks were/are.

Besides, from the polling we saw late in the summer, economic issues are of primary concern to voters.

Now, G-Rod is very different from Stu Levine because voters are aware of him. When his trial starts he, and the corruption that surrounded him, will be more of a focal issue again.

Comment by Okay Then... Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 2:48 pm
HRH…You think that Ryan is going to sit back and let McKenna attack without response? McKenna is more of a Pat Omalley. Attack in the late game and still come out losing. This time Ryan will respond with gusto. Prepare for battle. Lesson learned.

Comment by Public cant't be bought Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:00 pm
Ryan appoints Stu Levine, who has a seat on a state pension board to be his Finance Director. Levine arranges for Ryan to take trips out of state on private jets. Levine helps arrange a big Ryan fundraiser with firms that want to manage state pension funds. A few days after the fundraiser, the firms get the pension contract. A few years later, the pension funds continue to take a dive. Ryan refuses to return the money. And voters don’t care about this?

Comment by Burrito Bandit Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:07 pm
===This time Ryan will respond with gusto. ===

Only if he has lots of cash. Does he?

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:09 pm
Jim Ryan=Bob Dole with even less excitement and “gusto”.

Comment by Easy Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:15 pm
Confidential Memo:

The real Rasmussen poll is now out. Please fire up your laptops and begin savaging fellow Republicans.

End Memo.

Comment by McKenna/Murphy HQ Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:17 pm
OK, Ryan is history.

When the next poll comes along and he’s up 10, he’ll REALLY be done.

Comment by Will Blume Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:26 pm
==And voters don’t care about this?==

In the greater scheme of things? probably not.
Do you think voters want to re-tread old Stu Levine stuff that happened and is water under the bridge at this point or would they rather hear about Ryan’s plans to move Illinois out of its fiscal mess and other current quality of life issues?

I agree the Stu Levine stuff is not pretty, but I’m afraid it isn’t enough to sink his aspiration to be governor. Ryan should address it whenever it is brought up, and not be defensive about it, though.

The Dems have similiar dirt on their side both being Chicago Dems and all, no to mention their old and new political connections of dubious character and reputation (old in the case of Hynes and new/old in the case of Quinn. Quinn’s old is G-Rod.) Let’s just call it a draw?

Comment by Okay Then... Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:31 pm
Probably the better jimRYAN ad is the wobbly debate performance. Many said it sounded like he had looked at a paper in over 8 years and offered zero ideas on budget slashing.
But then the GOP primary is the Idea Free Zone.
Maybe CaribouBarbie can sled dog in a clear this up

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:35 pm
A one-day poll taken on the Sunday before Christmas, presumably while the Bears game was on? That’s a new low fow BS polling techniques, even for Rasmussen (a polling firm whose credibility is next to nonexistant among Democrats and progressives, and for good reason; its polls are nearly always found to be distorted towards the GOP, once the votes are counted on election Night).

Comment by fedup dem Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:38 pm
Every day during the Blagojevich trial the unions and Democrats will run this ad.

“Before Stu Levine was fixing political deals for the Rod Blagojevich corrupt political machine… he was fixing corrupt political deals for Jim Ryan. Isn’t it time we turn the page on Rod? This November, say no to Rod Blagojevich’s 3rd term, vote for Pat Quinn”.

Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:43 pm
On the other hand, the ad could say:

“While Rod Blagojevich was destroying our Great State, his LT. Governor Pat Quinn only had good things to say about Blagojevich even when he was under investigation. “insert quote and or video of the comments here.”

Comment by One of Three Puppets Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:51 pm
It goes both ways but is easier to attach it to Quinn.

Comment by One of Three Puppets Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:52 pm
===its polls are nearly always found to be distorted towards the GOP, once the votes are counted on election Night===

Actually, not.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:53 pm
===A one-day poll taken on the Sunday before Christmas, presumably while the Bears game was on? ===

Well, we know people are home. Sunday is a good polling day because of that.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:54 pm
You’re kidding me, right? I’ll grant you that guilt by association could work against Quinn, but no one has him participating in any of it. Rezko didn’t raise a dime for him.

Ryan, on the other hand, not so much. He may not have known (as if it matters in politics), but he had the same corrupt fixers Blago had. Ryan’s much closer than Quinn was.

And that’s before you bring up Nicarico.

Heck, I’m just waiting for the ISRA ad: “You are more likely to be accidently killed from being prosecuted by Jim Ryan than an accidental firearms discharge.”

Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:55 pm
==It goes both ways but is easier to attach it to Quinn. ==

Agreed!

Comment by Okay Then... Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 3:56 pm
Hey, there are a lot of dots that you need to connect in a 30 second ad and each one you have laid out contains too many dots to resonate with the voters.

The one that does is Rod Blagojevich’s LT Governor did nothing but talk glowingly about him while he destroyed our state. I think there is footage or audio of his quotes. Just saying……. That creates a great 30 second impression.

Comment by One of Three Puppets Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:00 pm
Say this, time it…

“Before Convicted Felon Stu Levine was fixing corrupt deals for Rod Blagojevich, he was fixing corrupt deals for Jim Ryan. Haven’t we had enough?”

Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:02 pm
As it has been stated by others, insiders know Levine. Everyone knows Blago.

Comment by One of Three Puppets Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:03 pm
I’m still iffy on automated polls, and highly skeptical of the significance of trial-heat polls this far out. Further, the male-female and Republican-Independent-Dem subgroups are pretty small, with way-big margins for error. Don’t bet your lunch money on any of this.

Comment by Ray del Camino Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:04 pm
The others are the same kind of stupid political consultants that talked Jim Ryan into the race so they could collect a paycheck knowing his reputation will be completely and utterly destroyed in the general.

It’s an idiotic argument. It’s nothing running a few thousand points of network TV ads during all the newscasts on the Blago trial won’t fix.

Quinn would have a problem with the “I think he’s basically an honest guy” footage if he were up against anyone but Jim Ryan.

I mean, do you guys think the unions and Democrats just aren’t going to spend money and effort spinning during the Blago trial? Do you think they’re just going to self-flaggelate?

“When we’re in, we’re in. When they’re in, where in. We’re always in… This november, vote them out.”

Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:09 pm
The poll showing the people wanting another candidate and undecided only show ONE thing…
Richard Whitney will take it all!
He is going to get 97% of the vote in the general election. He is the political juggernaut that made quite a few people from deciding to run for governor. All those running now are Don Quixotes against Rich Whitney!

Comment by Richard Afflis Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:17 pm
RA, enough, please. You keep posting the same stupid comment on every poll. The joke is old. Move along.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:19 pm
==You’re kidding me, right? I’ll grant you that guilt by association could work against Quinn, but no one has him participating in any of it. Rezko didn’t raise a dime for him.==

There is a Quinn/Rezko connection, and if memory serves it came out during Rezko’s trial. It was something relatively minor, or at least appeared to be on the surface. I think the two had dinner at Rezko’s house or something to that effect, but if memory also serves it wasn’t something that Quinn was too happy to have put out there. In fact, if memory serves, it was something Quinn quickly sought to distance himself from too.

Comment by Okay Then... Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:19 pm
Idiotic, kidding, whatever. It is a matter of opinion that the entire corruption connection can be made easier with Quinn than any GOP candidate. Ryan does have his own issues, if you detest him, fine. The statements that I made was simply to say the blame is easier to place on Quinn regardless of the GOP nominee.

Comment by One of Three Puppets Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:21 pm
The worry among top GOPers is that RRB could be partly, mostly, completely (pick ‘em) taken off the table if JRyan is the nominee. Plus, there’s other stuff, some unresolved from his last campaign. The doo-doo will hit the fan after the holidays, I’m assuming.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:24 pm
“Nine percent (9%) of Illinois voters like some other candidate…”

and rising every week. Whitney did get 11% last time. And another party or two might make the ballot. Now if they just were given 10% of the coverage, we might hear some new ideas that are actually good.

You’d think the media, desperate for readers/traffic/revenue, would stop ignoring a 10% market segment.

This poll should have asked specifically about the Green Party candidate who will be on the ballot, and also ask about “other”. The Greens are now “equal” to the Rs and Ds according to the state, so why not “unbiased” polls and media?

Comment by TaxMeMore Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:24 pm
==RRB==

What does RRB stand for?

Comment by Okay Then... Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:34 pm
I am shocked that Ryan leads Quinn in this poll. Something just does not seem right here. Jim Ryan disappeared for 8 years, his name recognition cannot be that of Quinn, this is still a “blue” state. Something just smells fishy here and I am not smart enough to figure out what it is.

Comment by Moving to Oklahoma Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:38 pm
Moving, there’s really a pretty simple answer and it’s in the xtabs.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 4:44 pm
The obvious observation is that unfortunately for Jim Ryan, the election isn’t today.

I think Ryan fades in January. McKenna remains infamous among Republicans as a doofus. The race comes down to Dillard and Brady, and Dillard wins.

Comment by just sayin' Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 5:01 pm
RRB = Rod R. Blagojevich

And I’m sorry JB, but as much as I like Pat Quinn, it’s easier to pin Rod’s sins on his running mate than on an opponent who shared a fundraiser with Rod. It’s a direct connect. Plus, they have Pat quoted as saying Rod is honest and not corrupt. If you think it won’t be a problem for him (and I’m not saying fatal), I think you’re looking through partisan and not political glasses. I want Pat to win and think Ryan is vulnerable in a variety of ways (not the lease of which is that he was a LOUSY candidate), but these issues will haunt Pat and they know it.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 5:12 pm
Rich, i tend to bet that after each released poll that Jim Ryan was winning by double digits and currently the only one to actually be beating the incumbent Gov. brings more of the large money folks to his side. After all, in the end, those guys like to be with a winner. He will have the cash.

Comment by Public can't be bought Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 5:40 pm
Good news for Jim Ryan and good news for the ILGOP. Seven point spread on the sitting Governor is impressive…especially since Jim Ryan hasn’t done much on the campaign trail. Quinn is not a good candidate & if this spring session gets sloppy, he’s in a real uphill battle in November.

RRB is on the table no matter what…how can he not be? Just a lousy Gov, Arrested, Impeached, Indicted, prolly found guilty before the fall’s elections. It’s clear that Stu Levine was working w/ Rod’s crew…not Jim Ryan’s.

Comment by scoot Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 5:44 pm
Forget Levine and Nicarico. The ad that will do Jim Ryan in is quite simple.

“Does Illinois really need another RYAN running this state?”

Sure, it’s dishonest by its suggestion, but the last name Ryan is and still will be radioactive by the time November rolls around. I’m still not convinced that Quinn can win anything. His bungling since he took the reins, the incessant flip-flopping, and the comment about RRB could be used to whack him hard in the general. I tend to agree with those that discount the accuracy of this poll. Then again… didn’t SJR have an online poll that decided the people would rather have George Ryan than Blago? LOL

Hynes is clearly the best candidate to keep the mansion for the Dems, but incumbency has its advantages I guess. On the GOP side if anybody but Dillard gets the nod, I’ll wager everything I have in my wallet right now (lint and all) that they lose in spectacular fashion as usual. It’s incredible to me that even when the GOP has a golden opportunity, they always manage to find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Nominating Ryan will seal the deal.

Comment by unnamed for now Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 5:55 pm
rich- was the tribune poll simply a disaster all together?
who did that poll, and how?

how could it be wrong?

Comment by quinn fan Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 6:54 pm
Is it not correct that 60% of the D vote is in Cook and Chicago? and isn’t it true that approx. 20% is in the collars? SO where is MMs energy being focused? Check appointments! And is it not true Daley gets along better with a GOP Gov. So where are the 18th and 19th wards at? This is goin to be fun to watch folks, to the victor goes the spoils!!!! RE-MAP

Comment by bwana Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 7:39 pm
Rich, What “other stuff…unresolved from his last campaign” are you referring to?

Comment by Curiousity Killed the Cat, but Satisfaction brought it Back Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 9:04 pm
why does hynes do so much better in the polling with female voters?

Comment by george Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 10:37 pm
–Jim Ryan=Bob Dole with even less excitement and “gusto”. –

What’s with the knock on Bob Dole? The GOP, local and national, would be a lot better off with more like him.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Dec 21, 09 @ 11:21 pm
I love Bob Dole, but we all know how he did in 1996.

More pure name recognition that counts for diddly squat. The only one who would do worse than Jim Ryan next November is Dan Proft.

Comment by T.J. Tuesday, Dec 22, 09 @ 12:54 am
Bambi, could you post a short list of your campaign win-loss record jusr for the undecided out there?

Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Dec 22, 09 @ 1:43 am