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* UPDATED x1 * New Giannoulias ad whacks Hoffman, and new poll has Hoffman a tiny bit higher - Plus, Coulson goes up

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* Alexi Giannoulias has responded to David Hoffman’s new TV ad by hitting back. Rate it…

*** UPDATE *** Hoffman responds…

“Mr. Giannoulias’ new ad attempts to take David Hoffman to task for daring to question his work record. True to Mr. Giannoulias’ form, his ad does not address the well documented facts of his relationship with Tony Rezko. They are well-sourced. They are well-reported. They are true. These are questions Mr. Giannoulias continues to dodge. Mr. Giannoulias also fails to mention in his ad that not one newspaper in Illinois has determined him fit for the Senate.

“Mr. Giannoulias also misrepresents the facts saying the Tribune called out David on a misstatement. David, in fact, took it upon himself to clarify after making a minor error. Imagine a public official who believes they should be held accountable to the voters for their public statements and actions - a lesson that is lost on Mr. Giannoulias, who has yet to apologize for his mismanagement of the Bright Start Fund and purposely misleading the investors regarding the amount of the losses.”

[ *** End of Update *** ]

In case you missed it, here’s Hoffman’s ad…

* Meanwhile, the respected Public Policy Polling firm is releasing a new survey that shows Giannoulias ahead and Hoffman in second place…

According to a yet-to-be-released survey from Public Policy Polling, Giannoulias has the support of 32 percent of Democratic primary voters — just 2 percentage points shy of the 34 percent he received in a similar poll released Sunday by the Chicago Tribune and WGN.

Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman (D) scored 20 percent in the PPP poll, while former Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Robinson Jackson scored 18 percent. About 27 percent of respondents reported they were undecided in the automated poll of 400 likely Democratic voters conducted Jan. 22-25.

Kirk holds an even more commanding lead in the GOP primary field with 42 percent. His chief competition, real estate developer Patrick Hughes (R), had 9 percent of support in the poll and 39 percent were undecided. These results were also similar to the Chicago Tribune poll, but Hughes scored better by about 20 points in his own poll that he released today from a relatively unknown polling firm.

Let’s compare PPP’s poll to the Tribune results, which are in parentheses…

Giannoulias 32 (34 )
Hoffman 20 (16)
Jackson 18 (19)
Undecided 27 (13)

Kirk 42 (47)
Hughes 9 (8)
Undecided 39 (35)

Not a huge difference at all, but Hoffman can probably better use these numbers to his advantage. Whether it means anything is debatable, at best.

…Adding… It should be noted that this PPP poll is much more current than the Trib poll, which was taken Jan. 16-20. Some of those Trib numbers are nine days old.

* In another campaign, 10th CD Republican hopeful Beth Coulson is up on cable TV with a new ad. Rate it…

I expected better.

From a Coulson press release…

Earlier in January, Coulson’s radio ads started airing on radio stations throughout the Chicagoland area, touting her experience as a leader in the 10th Congressional district in bringing lower property taxes and small business tax credits, as well as the endorsements from leaders like former Gov. Jim Edgar. Starting Sunday, Coulson’s media campaign hit television with a district-wide cable buy focusing on her ability to bring fiscal conservatism to Washington.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:09 pm

Comments

Giannoulais has topped out.
Hoffman is picking up the undecideds.
Jackson will do better than she is now polling.

This will be close.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:13 pm
Hughes’ biggest problem is that he doesn’t have the money — only $22K in the bank as of Jan. 13th — (or the time left) to move his numbers to even move within striking distance of Kirk as we move in to the stretch.

Comment by Team America Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:14 pm
Note the PPP survey is more current than the Trib #’s.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:15 pm
I really do like and admire Beth Coulson. But this ad is so amateurish, it looks like she’s running for class president, not a seat in Congress. I agree Rich, I was expecting better than that. Oof.

I think Alexi found his ceiling. It’s still his race to lose though. His ad is a good counter to Hoffman’s. Not sure Hoffman will have enough to finish strong, but he is moving in the right direction.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:16 pm
Have to agree with 47th on Beth Coulson, it had a student body president on the campus TV channel feel…

Also what sort of Republican does their ‘talking to the camera’ part with somewhat modern art in the background? It’s American Flags man, don’t they teach anything in school anymore?

Comment by OneMan Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:26 pm
agree 47 as usual, she should fire the person who made that ad - if she wants any $ from me . . .

Giannoulias is doing more than topping out, he will start to drop. All along many of us have said his numbers are soft. When people start to vote and Dems realize that he has no chance to beat Kirk - they will move to Hoffman. I expect that race to get very very close. Giannoulis obliviously does too, or he wouldn’t be responding at all.

I don’t think Alexi’s response ad is good. the shots of him talking to the working person are phony - very Blago-ish (Blago walking through a corn field in jeans . . . .)

Comment by siriusly Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:32 pm
Coulson’s ad doesn’t address the hot botton issues that hardcore Republicans care about. That’s because she’s on the wrong side of them as far as conservatives are concerned.

Comment by Reformer Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:36 pm
That Coulson ad is terrible. Who’s exercising quality-control at her campaign? Her whole approach makes one wonder if she thinks she’s still running for the State House. Dold could have an edge, as he’s at least trying to run a congressional-level campaign.

Comment by Ugh Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:40 pm
It’s hard to take coulson seriously on spending given springfield she is leaving. the ad is awful. The north shore is a very well to do area, there is plenty of money for a 1.5 decade legislator to raise to get someone beyond the freshman level of columbia college to do an ad.

Alexi looks like a frat boy in these ads. someone needs to remind the democratic party that a senator is supposed to have dignity and look like a national figure that can vote on a supreme court judge or ask tough questions of a 4 star general.

Then again they gave us roland, and carol.

Comment by shore Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:42 pm
I don’t think Alexi’s response ad is good. the shots of him talking to the working person are phony - very Blago-ish (Blago walking through a corn field in jeans . . . .)

I’m sorry, what election did Blagojevich lose? If your ads are as good as his, you’re in fine shape.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:45 pm
Hoffman is clearly picking up steam–this poll is newer than the trib’s poll, and he’s already gained a few percentage points. Alexi isn’t getting any higher–he could be in trouble.

Comment by champaign campaign Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:46 pm
Also is it just me or does the still that shows up before you hit play on the Beth Coulson ad look like she is about to introduce a class session on WYCC 20?

Comment by OneMan Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:54 pm
Hoffman picking up steam? Seriously 2 point change within the margin of error, and that’s “picking up steam”!?!? Ohhhh watch out now, at this rate he may actually come in a distant second instead of a pitiful third.

Question: if hoffman has such great (yet silent to date) support, why did he have to loan his campaign 1 million?

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:03 pm
I haven’t seen any reporting on the expected aftermath of the Senate primary, but with things this close, you have to figure that Alexi and Hoffman empty the tank this week. Someone can check my figures, but I thought I read that Alexi had 1 million cash on hand, and Hoffman had about 700,000. I know both can self fund (and Hoffman already dumped a bunch of money in) but I don’t think either has Peter Fitzgerald money.

Either way - being 3 million back from Kirk right out of the gate isn’t an ideal spot to be in and just fuels the story that Illinois is in play.

Comment by Joe McCarthy and the Red Scarecrows Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:04 pm
Is it just me, or is the way Rich frames things constantly slanted towards Giannoulias? I don’t understand, did anyone else see any “whacking” in there?

Note, by the way, that the headline is “New Poll has Hoffman a Tiny Bit Higher”, “and not “Hoffman Jumps into Second Place in Newest Poll”.

A 25% jump in poll numbers is a “Tiny Bit”? Really?

Comment by Alyssa Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:09 pm
Rich did say over the weekend that the Hoffman campaign was surging. An 11 point jump since December is quite a surge.

Comment by Kate Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:24 pm
Alyssa, I got one guy saying I’m blatantly Hoffman and you saying I’m slanted to Alexi. Sheesh.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:24 pm
First off, that Coulson ad is just awful. Geez Beth, you’re running for Congress not dog catcher, can you show a little ENERGY?

Second, the only movement in the Senate race is towards Hoffman. Alexi plants can say anything they want but they can’t change that reality. The only question is will it be enough. Also keep in mind that all of this movement happened with almost no money on TV. Now that Hoffman has launched a significant buy, we’ll see how he finishes.

And as to the money, it’s hard as a first time candidate with Federal limits who gets in a race late and refuses to take money from not just federal pacs and lobbyists, but state ones too. If he wins the primary, though, money will not be an issue as all the folks at the DSCC knows that Hoffman is the only one who can keep this seat blue.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:29 pm
I am waiting for Jacob Meister to sue the Tribune and PPP for not including him in their poll results! Unless Rich just left him out for brevity?

Comment by Lakefront Liberal Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:34 pm
The Coulson ad is weird. She comes across about twenty years older than I thought she was, and she promises to fight for me. You promise to fight in a Democrat ad, not in a Republican ad.

Comment by T.J. Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:42 pm
Rich, anything is better than the Ali G lovefest at a certain national blog where the Ali G campaign hired away one of the commentariat. It’s become sort of like the John Laesch phenomenon on the Intertubes awhile back except on a much more prominent stage. I appreciate this blog for playing it down the middle.

Comment by Stuck with Sen. CPA Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:44 pm
Coulson should have stayed where she was. Her state house seat is going to the Dems now for sure, and Coulson isn’t going to Congress.

Comment by Niles Township Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:47 pm
Very very funny, LFLiberal!

Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:48 pm
Niles,

I agree that her campaign is lame, but you really think Seals would win? I’ll be stunned, particularly this year.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:49 pm
Rich it is obvious you are a total cheerleader to whomever someone is not supporting…

Duh…

Comment by OneMan Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:52 pm
The hair.

She watched too much Mad Men.

Coulson wont get anywhere with the Netsch look.

It went out of style long ago.

Anyway, all the Netsch voters are taking the Dem ballot.

Come to think of it,

Comment by True Observer Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:55 pm
The PPP poll only has a sample size of 400, so I wouldn’t get too excited about it until its confirmed.

Alexi’s message is very concise and disciplined…his pollsters must have confidence in the Jobs message.

Hoffman’s ad seems to jump around a bit.

Alexi doesn’t need to win the argument about Hoffman’s integrity, just keep raising doubts.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:55 pm
Coulson ad is symbolic of her campaign…amateurish and wishy-washy.

“I’ll take on health care reform.”???????

What in God’s name does that mean?

She won’t hold the seat if she runs a campaign like that, even if Seals wins the nomination.

Comment by E Pluribus Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 4:14 pm
Beth’s ad is not that bad. It is ok for a 30 second spot. She looks good and sounds good.I sure am sick of seeing Edgar though.

Comment by Bill Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 4:42 pm
Anyone else think David Hoffman looks like Batman?
Random, I know, but I keep imagining him as the upright moral crusader by night, then he dons his cape and mask and goes out to fight Chicago’s supervillains by night.

Comment by ZC Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 9:56 pm
Beth Coulson has repeatedly lied about health care over the years. She votes against things that she rails about being for publicly. In the one time I interviewed her, she lied to me face to face without flinching. I consider her scum. Arie Friedman totally blows me and is an obvious choice for Republicans seeking quality in the 10th congressional district.

Comment by Avy Meyers Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 10:41 pm
Meant to say blows me away

Comment by Avy Meyers Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 10:42 pm
Arie Friedman did not raise enough money to buy a roll of stamps let alone get his message out. His FEC reports are under question.

Coulson PBS ad is a joke but she is going to win. Every other GOP in that race is not known.

Comment by Ava Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 7:26 am
The trib poll had a sample size of 600, larger than ppp, but still 4% margin of error. Meister and Marshall both polled under 1%. Hoffman can and should win this thing, it’s only an issue of time.

Comment by Northside Nelly Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 9:04 am