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* Gov. Pat Quinn has a new TV ad that speaks directly to voters. I think it’s pretty good, but is it enough? You tell me…
* Rasmussen Reports has a new poll on the Democratic primary. But its sample size is tiny - just 300 likely Democratic voters - so let’s be very careful with it, OK? Thanks.
Anyway, the poll has Hynes leading Quinn 43-37 with 14 percent undecided…
Given the survey margin of error and the large number of undecided voters, the race is clearly a toss-up heading into Tuesday’s primary vote.
One reason the race is close is Democratic Primary voters give Quinn mixed reviews on his job performance. Overall, 53% say they at least somewhat approve of the job he’s doing. That’s pretty tepid support from the party’s base voters. Only 13% Strongly Approve, while 21% Strongly Disapprove.
On a personal basis, as distinct from job approval, Hynes is viewed favorably by 54% while Quinn earns positive reviews from 51%.
Just 12% have a Very Favorable opinion of Quinn while 18% hold a Very Unfavorable view.
For Hynes, those numbers are 16% Very Favorable and 11% Very Unfavorable.
Toplines are here, crosstabs (subscribers only) are here.
* Public Policy Polling has a new survey of over 1,000 likely Illinois voters that has the governor’s approval rating in the tank and has him losing to two GOP candidates in the fall. Hynes, on the other hand, is ahead of the same Republican candidates. All emphasis added…
We looked at four potential November match ups and found Dan Hynes leading Jim Ryan 40-35 and Andy McKenna 38-36 with Pat Quinn trailing Ryan 42-35 and McKenna 42-36.
Here are our takeaways from those numbers:
-Hynes is a more electable candidate for Democrats than Quinn. Quinn’s approval rating has fallen to 25/55…those sorts of numbers make him virtually unelectable in the general election. His 9% approval with Republicans is par for the course in a time of polarized politics but the 16/55 spread with independents is bad and the fact that his standing with Democrats is under 40% is even worse. Matched against the Republicans Hynes gets around 70% of the Democratic vote and Quinn gets just 60%, which is why Hynes is ahead and Quinn is behind.
-This is probably going to be a close contest no matter who gets nominated. Three out of the four scenarios we looked at came out within the margin of error and there are a decent number of undecideds. Illinois will be one of the most watched states in the country this fall with close races for both the Senate and Governor.
-The same trends that fueled Republican victories in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Virginia are showing up in Illinois. Independents are leaning strongly toward the GOP, leading by anywhere from 5 to 21 points in these head to heads. And Republicans are also more unified, getting 71-80% of their party’s vote compared to 60-69% for the Democrats. That’s the formula that makes Republican victory possible in Democratic leaning states.
*We tested Ryan and McKenna because earlier polling in the race suggested they were the GOP front runners. Given the lack of variability in their performance relative to Hynes and Quinn it seems likely Kirk Dillard or Bill Brady would have polled similarly.
Full results and crosstabs are here.
* Related…
* Early release plan haunting Quinn
* Will Harold Washington Ad Backfire On Dan Hynes?: But only one voter we spoke with indicated the Hynes ad would influence her.
* Poll shows race for Illinois governor virtual dead heat
* More than $5 million rolls into governor candidates since Jan. 1
* Governor’s race tightens in final week
* Axelrod Glad He’s Not Involved in Illinois Politics: “I miss Chicago every day. I’m homesick every day,” Axelrod said at a Chicago home for those with developmental needs where he was the keynote speaker. “But the one virtue of being away is that I don’t have to be in the middle of a contest between very good friends.”
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 9:56 am
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To a large extent this primary was always going to be a referendum on Quinn’s competence. Unfortunately for Quinn, that hasn’t gone well of late. Here he basically acknowledges that Hynes has defined the campaign and asks you to ignore all the noise. Unfortunately for him, negative ads work.
Comment by Kyle Boller's Clipboard Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 10:11 am
– Independents are leaning strongly toward the GOP, leading by anywhere from 5 to 21 points in these head to heads.–
If there’s not some good economic news this summer and fall, that will only get worse — and Dems are in a lot of trouble.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 10:20 am
Word,
I worry what the independents will do once the general is in full swing. Hynes is getting good training in total war vs Quinn. If McKenna wins the primary how will he handle that? Run away? Hide behind daddy? Declare he has a prior commitment?
Paid for by “Republicans for anybody but McKenna”.
Comment by dupage dan Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 10:25 am
word-couldn’t agree with you more…MJM may get his wish for a Republican Governor…
Comment by Loop Lady Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 10:30 am
The Quinn ad is good, but he missed an opportunity to seal the deal. He should have talked about what he has gotten done under very difficult circumstances. He passed a jobs bill that will put Illinoisans to work. He brought home more stimulus money for Illinois than any other state which will create jobs, build schools, and repair our infrsastructure, and he created 1,200 jobs by beating out Canada and several other states to expand Ford production at the south side plant. Quinn has always said that this election will be about jobs and the economy, and he is getting real results. Hynes will try to tell you otherwise through negative ads. Politics aside, Quinn is putting people to work.
I hope that there is time to get out one more ad that can communicate these accomplishments.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 10:33 am
McKenna is hiding in his mansion, afraid of the voters.
Has anyone see McKenna on the campaign trail?
Has he looked anyone in the eye while shaking their hand?
Has he told anyone how he plans to balace the budget?
Do we really want another person with a cloud of unethical behavior hanging over his head, like McKenna, to be governor? Again?
McKenna wants to stay home under daddy’s wing and buy the governorship. McKenna will never be elected in a general election.
Comment by Joe from Joliet Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 10:43 am
Quinn’s best ad by miles, but wonder if it is enough to eek out a victory. This should have been on the air two weeks ago.
Comment by Niles Township Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 10:43 am
This data is not surprising.
Hynes is the best Democratic candidate, and Dillard is the best Republican candidate.
That has been the case for over a month.
Now, let’s see if the primary voters give these two their party’s nomination. Hynes looks set to do it, and Dillard may do it.
If the GOP nominates Ryan, we have a repeat of 2002-style replay, and Ryan can only beat Quinn.
If the GOP nominates McKenna, they will lose because McKenna has never won a statewide race as either a candidate, or as a party chairman. His electoral record is worse than Keyes.
Only Dillard can beat Hynes, and it would be close, because both parties would be sending voters a new message. The Democrats would be saying that they have turned a leaf regarding nominating charismatic crooks, and the Republicans would be saying that they are not just a bunch of right wing kooks.
Voters want to consider both parties, and only Hynes and Dillard will allow them to do that.
By offering fiscal moderates into the gubernatorial race, Illinoisans will be able to move forward during these days of crisis. It will take bipartisanship and teamwork to bury the years of partisanship, gridlock and corruption. A Hynes/Dillard gubernatorial race can do that.
We couldn’t get a constitutional convention passed, so let’s hope that both parties serve up their best this year, so that we can begin again.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 10:52 am
==MJM may get his wish for a Republican Governor==
Loop Lady, can you explain why you think Mike Madigan would want a republican governor when legislative reapportionment is 18 months away?
Comment by Knome Sane Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 10:55 am
QOTD: What would you have said 10 years ago if someone told you that the 2010 General for Governor could be Quinn vs. McKenna?
Comment by Stupid Human Tricks Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 10:56 am
“Call an ambulance.” lol
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 10:58 am
Vanilla, you rip McKenna for never having won a statewide race…but what statewide race has Dillard ever won? A similar tag was attempted against Obama. Didn’t hold much water then either. It’s a new year and a new election. That weak argument goes out the window when McKenna wins the primary next week.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:00 am
Quinn’s best ad by a mile so far. More of this plus examples of job creation and footage of the Ford announcement. Whoever comes out of the primary on either side, we are going to witness another absolute bloodbath. I think its looking less and less like Ryan, but if undecideds are still at 20% come Tuesday, the vast majority of them will break for Ryan because they have voted for Jim Ryan three times before.
Further, if you think Ryan’s campaign finance troubles end with Stu Levine- you are wrong. If McKenna succeeds in buying the GOP primary, he can spend millions more of his Dad’s money and will still get his but kicked in November.
Comment by Big Policy Nerd Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:02 am
And Joe, articles on the debate state that McKenna was in Central Illinois last night. I wasn’t aware that he had moved to central illinois, but thanks for informing us. Republicans will have a legitmate downstate voice now!
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:02 am
In light of the tribune story, I do not like the Quinn ad. if I’m hynes I try to get an ad up no later than Friday using that Tribune story and letting voters know that the story is dated 1/27/2010. if hynes has an ad with quinn gushging over Blago as rich wrote over the weekend, hynes should run it and/or re-work today’s tribune story about quinn into it with a m,essage like “here we go again” or something to that effect.
Comment by Will County Woman Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:08 am
KS: I think Madigan would like to hang a tax increase on a Republican Governor…
reapportionment in a heavily democratic state with a greater and greater % of Latinos/Hispanics is not going to help the GOP much…
I hope the best man wins in each of the races…IL needs some real leadership yesterday…
Comment by Loop Lady Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:26 am
Vanilla, you rip McKenna for never having won a statewide race…but what statewide race has Dillard ever won?
When was Dillard a state party chairman? McKenna isn’t just a loser because of his current campaign - his record as a loser of campaigns precedes him.
If the GOP wants a winner, they don’t nominate a perennial loser like McKenna. If McKenna was a general in our war with Missouri - we’d all be speaking Ozarkian, while he would have us serving him Happy Meals on his palatial estate.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:30 am
Big Policy–
Those who think Dems have this in the can if the GOP candidate ain’t Jim Ryan remind of the same folks who thought Hilary Clinton would NEVER lose to Barack Obama, that Obama would get crushed by an unpolled angry white male vote, that Rezko and Cellini would never get indicted and that Blago had “weathered” the storm.
They’re also the poll dissers out who think every poll they don’t like is somehow being manipulated by 13th Ward precinct captains through a series of strategically placed secret webcams.
The Dems have some problems come November no matter who comes out of that GOP primary. Believe it or not.
Comment by Big Mistake Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:37 am
The Quinn ad is good but doesn’t address the issue moving voters—Quinn’s inept management. The sad truth is that Quinn isn’t tough enough nor does he have the executive skills necessary to run state government. He’s a nice guy with good intentions, but he’s not able to wrestle with Madigan and the legislature and come out on top. He had a year to prove that he was up to the job, and failed to deliver.
Comment by Louis Howe Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:38 am
The Dillard drones keep saying Dillard would be better in general with NO evidence or logic. Dillard has plenty of vulnerabilities that haven’t even been explored yet.
Comment by Alex Carbo Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:41 am
Alex, I agree. (M)y (S)entiments, (I)ndeed.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:04 pm
@ Big Mistake
-The Dems have some problems come November no matter who comes out of that GOP primary. Believe it or not.-
Both sides got tons of baggage. There is no denying that. But spending the last six months traveling around the State calling Barack Obama a “socialist”, while talking about how “you enjoy bringing your family to tea bag rallies” and how you will “sue the federal government” when you get elected Governor isn’t going to do you any favors.
Comment by Big Policy Nerd Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:11 pm
the real shame is that mckenna was trying to get vallas to run for cook county board president, and failed. peraica said that last year vallas still seemed way more interested in state government than anything else.
i suspect that because lisa madigan was widely believed to be running for governor in the early part of last year that’s the only real reason why vallas was forced to look at the county board.
had she not played around and wasted everyone’s time, we (illinosians) maybe could have gotten vallas to reconsider and run for governor in time. he’s a problem-solver and he loves challenges which is what illinois so badly needs right now and in the 4-8 years ahead.
maybe with the 2009/10 school winding up in the spring he could be talked into running as an independent? he wouldn’t have to worry about raising money. my sense is that voters are not very pleased with the current crop of candidates on either side. all vallas basically has to say is that he’s neither republican nor democrat and that he has a proven-track record of turning things around and good getting results.
vallas would play well against Quinn’s incomptence or Hynes’ machine background and GOP weakness. he has instant name recognition. also Daley doesn’t like and neither does Madigan,and he wouldn’t be beholden to anyone, which are all the more reasons for illinoisans to vote for him in droves.
Comment by Will County Woman Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:15 pm
As a lameduck for the rest of the year, Quinn will have a miserable time dealing with the General Assembly. As the state meltdown continues on his watch, his reputation will decline even further. I wonder if he’ll support Hynes or do his best to undermine him?
Comment by Reformer Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:16 pm
If the best candidate won, Paul Vallas would still be governor.
Comment by Michelle Flaherty Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:46 pm
Regarding pensions, Hynes web site is very specific about ending early retirements and ending those “end of career” pension sweeteners.
Apparently that’s just a fraud because he didn’t say that to the Trib, and you can bet that the IEA woudln’t endorse him if he were serious.
Comment by PalosParkBob Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:54 pm
Let me clarify somehting… I really intended to write that: It’s not so much that Mike Madigan and Rich Daley don’t like Vallas, it’s more the fact that HE is not afraid of them. That’s what makes him very appealing, to me.
Comment by Will County Woman Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:56 pm
If McKenna is the candidate, I don’t know what I would do–he did a terrible job of running the state GOP–I can’t imagine he would do any better at running the state. Although I know it won’t happen, I would like for any candidate to propose a tax increase to be devoted solely to paying down the overdue bills. Instead, we just get more of the same while the University of Illinois is talking about furloughs and social service agencies are closing their doors or laying off almost all staff because of unpaid STate bills.
Comment by Champaign Dweller Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 1:14 pm
instaed of “me i’m counting on you” at the end of the ad he should have said “i’m pat quinn and i am counting on you”. odd that quinn would say hynes’ name in the ad but not his own. just a thought.
Comment by EIRE 17 Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 2:29 pm
The Quinn ad is good, and would have been good two weeks ago. Then this week he should have had a “I can do the job and here is what I have done” message, to counter Hynes’ claims. He does not refute the claims (just calls them negative ads — well negative ads may still bear the truth). He would have been much better saying “Dan Hynes’ has called me incompetent; well I have stood up to …… that is doing the job well. Or something powerful. This ad is weak as we are less than a week before the election. Elect PQ cuz he’s a nice guy won’t cut it.
Comment by Paul S. Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 5:27 pm
The PPP poll released yesterday had Dillard in the lead for the GOP; yet the linked poll does the head to heads with McKenna and Ryan.
What am I missing here?
Comment by Quinn T. Sential Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 9:38 pm
QTS, subscribe.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:17 pm
“This data is not surprising.
Hynes is the best Democratic candidate, and Dillard is the best Republican candidate.”
That’s fascinating, since Dillard has the same speaking style as Quinn.
“If the GOP nominates McKenna, they will lose because McKenna has never won a statewide race as either a candidate, or as a party chairman. His electoral record is worse than Keyes.”
McKenna has run once before ever. Keyes has spectacularly lost more than one Senate race in more than one state.
Comment by T.J. Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:39 am
As the GOP Party Chairman, McKenna didn’t win a single statewide election for the Republicans.
Having him as their nominee is like selecting General George Custer to continue fighting the Little Big Horn because he is the last guy standing.
McKenna didn’t create new GOP troops, because he led them to electoral slaughter every two years. He created nothing for his party as it’s chairman, except for the purpose of using it’s resources to further this gubernatorial race.
He can’t run this state any better than he ran his party.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 9:12 am