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Question of the day

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* Which candidate(s) do you think will be the most surprising winner/loser next Tuesday? Explain.

And, please, don’t just use this thread as an opportunity to push your little dark horse candidate who hasn’t raised any money, hasn’t worked much at all and - in all reality - has no shot whatsover.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:23 pm

Comments

Hynes, which really won’t be a surprise because of the win, but it will be a surprise because how big the margin it will be. No one a month ago would have thought Hynes could win by 7, 8 points.

Comment by UI Chancellor Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:29 pm
I think the surprise will be Don Lowery for U.S. Senate. Don has done an incredible amount of driving and meeting people south of I-80. Maybe this is straying off the question, but I dont think Lowery will win, but I think he will surprise with 20 - 25 % of the vote.

Comment by Moving to Oklahoma Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:31 pm
If Scott Lee Cohen wins, expect a major legislative push to abolish the Lt. Governor’s office. While he isn’t a LaRouchie, ala Mark Fairchild, it will be a huge embarrassment running with him in the fall for either Hynes or Quinn.

I keep hearing his ads, and in my opinion, they are quite good. I have no data to support this, but it appears he’s done way more advertising than Link, Turner et al.

Cohen winning would be a nasty surprise for the Dems.

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:32 pm
Jonathan Goldman. He’s working hard, raising money and is the best candidate. He knows the rail and the community.

Comment by cleanairguy Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:33 pm
The biggest loser is going to be Scott Lee Cohen when he realizes the $1 million he dropped on the race didn’t even get him 15% of the vote.

Comment by Big Policy Nerd Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:34 pm
I think Joe Laiacona (running against Deb Mell) and John Burros (running for Turner vacancy) have shots at upset victories.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:34 pm
Schroeder over Dunkin in the State House 5th. That district has changed dramatically over the past few years, Schroeder has picked up the Trib, Sun-Times, ILNOW, Deb Shore and the progressives, and the 42nd and 43rd ward people. He’s running a very serious campaign and Dunkin seems to be nowhere. Plus, it is a good year to be an outsider.

Comment by OdysseusVL Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:36 pm
I don’t know Nerd, Jacob Meister might sue you for omitting him from consideration…

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:37 pm
I’d have to say the loss margin for Pat Hughes. I don’t think the undecided voters will go his way. I’m thinking he’ll get 12%-16% at most.

Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:38 pm
Jason Plumber, he has been impressive these last few weeks.

Comment by annon Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:39 pm
My prediction would involve some ifs, frankly, but with 35% of the GOP Senate primary electorate still undecided, Kirk could lose. I think the 35% is anti-Kirk. His support is soft. We see he will lose against Gianoulias (spelling). It would require that the 35% to all go to one candidate, however, eg, Hughes. So, you could call it a stretch.

The GOP governor’s primary race is too crowded to predict–for me. I don’t care about the Dem outcomes, although it would be funny if Jackson pulled out a surprise, which you (Rich Miller) suggested was possible a week ago.

Comment by Peggy SO-IL Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:40 pm
Rudy Lozano Jr. over Dan Burke. There will be an incredible Latino turnout in that district because of Lozano and Garcia. They’ve been pounding the pavement non-stop for months. The word is that Latinos with signs for Burke are actually promising to vote for Lozano.

Comment by KGB Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:40 pm
Keith Wheeler is going to beat Kay Hatcher in the primary in the 50th…

Also I still think Andy may pull it off for governor (but that is a bit dark horsy)

Comment by OneMan Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:44 pm
@ 47th Ward

_I don’t know Nerd, Jacob Meister might sue you for omitting him from consideration… _

Good point 47th Ward. I have not thought about him since I saw his ad go by on the #77 CTA bus a few weeks ago. There is another $1 million down the tubes for 2% of the vote. I will call my lawyer.

Comment by Big Policy Nerd Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:45 pm
Anyone thinking Hoffman?

Comment by Will Guzzardi Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:47 pm
Jim Madigan over Heather Steans for the Illinois State Senate, 7th District. Madigan corners the gay vote despite Greg Harris endorsing Heather, plus Madigan’s negative ads on Heather’s failure to appear at debates plus her large donations to Blago spring the upset.

Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:48 pm
Hynes win by 10 points… Terry Link wins, so does Dillard… in a squeaker.

Comment by DemVOTER Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:49 pm
I agree with OdysseusVL. Dunkin may be a long time (though forgettable) incumbent but it is certainly hard and rare for an incumbent to be knocked off in a primary. Schroeder has out raised Dunkin and the two newspaper endorsements should help him alot in a down ballot race.

Comment by LouisXIV Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:50 pm
Roland Burris, as a write-in for Senator. On the Republican ticket. Explanation: just imagining the look on everyone’s face.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:50 pm
Forgot the why on Wheeler… Well I have seen a ton of his signs in various parts of the district, about a 4 to 5 to 1 ratio vs Hatcher signs. Also some vibes I am getting locally. Also see his signs with a lot of established candidates.

Comment by OneMan Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:50 pm
Yes, Will, I think Jay Hoffman will win in a landslide.

Comment by Bill Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:51 pm
Jonathan Goldman would be great-but isn’t his opponent backed by the Great Chicago Machine?
Never underestimate it. Especially if the weather’s bad, as it surely will be.

Anyway, I have tried to put aside my preferences and despite my previous predictions, I think Hynes could win it. After all, the President’s speech last night was all about propping up the middle class economically. He is advised by some of the smartest political advisors in the US and they seem to think it’s a problem. And tax-increase-averse Oregon passed an income tax increase on the wealthy this week–(and on business, too). A centerpiece of Hynes’ plan is not to increase the income tax on the middle class (unlike our Pat, who wants to cut taxes on the poor by increasing them on the middle class). The Prez and Oregon voters may be on to a trend. Maybe Hynes can ride it.

Comment by casssandra Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:51 pm
Unfortunately I don’t think any of the most colorful candidates are going to win (Andy Martin/William Kelly/Rickey Hendon) but if somehow the good lord could find it in his heart to at least let them go 1 for 3 the humble masses would be very grateful, and entertained.

Also, side note (sorry), what has happened to the Green party and that story? With Whitney’s statewide showing in 2006 they qualified for easier ballot access throughout Illinois and there was rampant speculation of the Green party playing a bigger role in state politics, but it hasn’t materialized and no one has seemed to write about it either.

Comment by Scooby Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:52 pm
Few pundits expect Quinn, Hoffman or Hughes to win at this point, but if Dillard manages to squeak out a victory, given his less than stellar fundraising and performance on the stump, I think that makes him the most surprising winner and Andy “Deep Pockets” McKenna the biggest loser.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:54 pm
KGB. I agree. I think Burke is going to get a pretty sound beating. His constituency is just smiling in his face and all the while calling him every name in the book. No doubt when they accpeted his free food giveaways over the holidays they were totally smiling and talking about him in Spanish.

Sad part is that he was on tv recently saying how this is the first time he’s ever had to actually campaign and how hard he working. Wow, um okay.

Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 12:54 pm
Ravenswood,

Dream on. First off she did debate Madigan - I was there. Second, Madigan’s campaign has been breathtaking in it’s ad hominem attacks and vacant in its lack of substance. Steans wins in a walk.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:07 pm
Winners: 10th Congressional District: GOP: Bob Dold. His yard signs are in YARDS seemingly everywhere, followed by Beth Coulson and Ari Friedman. That Edgar magic doesn’t seem to be saving Coulson right now. All the GOP candidates are good decent people. Democrats: Dan Seals. Hamos seems to have run a very lackluster unfocused campaign. Ground game for both of my projected winners is a major positive.

Governor: Kirk Dillard momentum may put him over the top for the GOP. I see Quinn losing to Hynes by a handful of votes.

The electorate seems very riled up and confused in my area. They are looking to send a message but aren’t sure which candidate will be the messenger.

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:08 pm
Ravenswood,

It’s not all about the gay vote. And even the LGBT community is ticked that Jim Madigan pulled a Republican ballot in the 2000 Presidential Primary. He’s nothing but a Log Cabin Republican.

Comment by AndersonvilleBabe Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:13 pm
Look for Hultgren to take out the Speaker’s kid, Ethan …and don’t be suprised if Preckwinkle getting quite close to 50% in a four-way race…

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:13 pm
I think those who will be most surprised are those who thought the messages from the Massachusetts election would carry over to Illinois. Given Illinois’ blue leanings, the “RINOs” may well win and the ultra-right will by crying in their Kool-aid.

Comment by Deep South Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:14 pm
I’ll also go with Jonathan Goldman. If you drive through Lincoln Park and Bucktown, all you see are his signs, and he’s been working very, very hard. A lot of people have met him or heard about him.

Comment by Don't Worry, Be Happy Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:19 pm
Hamos is just too liberal for that district. She’s 9th district liberal just like her gal-pal Jan. The people in the 10th knew what they were doing sticking with Kirk, though some considered Seals. Seals is not flammin’ liberal the way Hamos is.

Truth be told had she run for AG she would have lost that race too.

Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:20 pm
If Carl Officer rallies his folks below the hill, he could pull that off. Eddie Jackson isn’t as well liked in East St. Louis as people think.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:26 pm
Oberman makes it alot closer than people think against Kelly, but Kelly still wins. Quinn wins by less than 500 votes and there will be a recount (he’s seen that episode before).

Comment by Niles Township Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:27 pm
So everyone probably expects me to predict Hoffman will win. Yes, naturally I do. 37 H, 36 G, 27 J.

But my real prediction is that with little money but a lot of hard work, Todd Connor wins for water rec commissioner.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:34 pm
Eamon Kelly in the 18th. Another blow to the once powerful Shakowsky machine.

Comment by Bill Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:34 pm
I am inclined to believe that McKenna will be beaten by Brady, Ryan, and Dillard but “the real surprise” will be by how large the percentage of votes that he gets beaten by turns out to be. It will show both the GOP and Dem Party that “money can’t buy you happiness” (at least in this election).

Comment by Donovan Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:36 pm
Here’s my upset — Quinn will win! Momentum shifted to Hynes, but Quinn has strong organizations that can actually turn out votes, and Dan doesnt. Many people are talking about Hynes short memory for those who helped him, which has really motivated some of the best organizations. Also, SEIU is in so deep that they will pull out all the stops to get his plusses to the polls.

It will be close, and we may not know the outcome until very late on Tuesday, but Quinn will win.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:41 pm
Most surprising winner, or near-winner: Bill Brady. No, I don’t think he will actually win, but he will do a lot better than expected. He will beat or tie Jim Ryan, and finish third behind Kirk Dillard and Andy McKenna. (Not saying which of the latter two will come out on top, however.)

Most surprising loser: I don’t really foresee one. Either Hynes or Quinn losing wouldn’t really be a “surprise” to me at this point.

Comment by Secret Square Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:42 pm
Anon @ 1:41- I had dinner with someone who recently spoke to a SEIU leader who had been at Quinn’s campaign office. He said the level of disorganization is appalling and that they had only id’d 32,000 people so far. Not 32,000 plusses, but 32,000 voters TOTAL. There is no field operation to speak of with Quinn.

Comment by Former Downstater Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:44 pm
Todd Stroger.

Four more years!

Comment by Menken Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:44 pm
I really think that Hoffman will pull off a victory on Tuesday. I hope so at least.

Comment by Chathamite Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:45 pm
Ann Williams defeats the organization backed candidate, Dan Farley. She has outspent, out-muscled and out-maneuvered Farley from the get-go.

And, in a stinging rebuke to the heave-handedness of the unions in the 36th District (Brosnahan vacancy), Kelly Burke defeats union man Mike Macellaio. Burke appears to have run a clear-cut grasstoots campaign while Macellaio relied too heavily on support from outside the district.

Comment by Knome Sane Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:50 pm
I dont know if it will be the most surprising win of the night given how close the Governor’s race is on the Republican side but I think that Bill Brady will pull it out be a few percentage points.

Comment by RMW Stanford Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:52 pm
==but Quinn has strong organizations that can actually turn out votes==
LOL
Most of the committeemen are trying to ignore Quinn and work on the down ballot candidates. They wish he would just go away and they’re really worried about the whole ticket in Nov if Quinn wins.
Some advice…never say Quinn and organization in the same sentence.

Comment by Bill Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:52 pm
Quinn will win.

It won’t be his organization, but the organizations of his supporters who are IDing and calling on their own.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:04 pm
Dillard,

Not a surprise, but republicans want a winner, and he’s perceived as the best shot.

Comment by curious Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:12 pm
.. was thinking Hoffy yesterday, but it doesn’t seem like the Bank story has legs… so Lexi by a hair…

Comment by DemVOTER Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:15 pm
Bill Brady could win the Governor’s race. Dillard finally has enough money to get on the air to beat up McKenna, McKenna’s beating up Dillard on doing the Obama commercial and Ryan has been in free-fall since he announced.

This is going to be a super low turnout election. If Brady simply gets the same number of votes he did downstate 4 years ago, he’s the winner by default.

Comment by Steve Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:25 pm
I am predicting upset wins for both Hynes and Dillard. As much as I want Hoffman, I just don’t think he’ll pull it off. Hamos wins 10th CD in sqeaker.

Comment by siriusly Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:31 pm
I think that Scott Cohen will win, in Lt Gov race, I saw his commercial right before the State of the Union last night, looks pretty to me.

I met him once at a parade last summer, he stopped and talked to me for 5 min. seems like a real genuine guy. I think Quinn will win too, Hynes seems very desparate right now, and Hoffman is picking up steam for sure

Comment by Cardinals2006 Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:35 pm
Hynes beating an incumbent governor would be the biggest surprise by far. Besides the Hynes campaign, who would’ve predicted this 4 weeks ago? Hynes winning will be THE story.

Comment by leadbutt Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:35 pm
Rudy Lozano Jr. State Rep 23rd District. With the amount of times they have knocked on my door, I can only imagine that he has a real chance. The Jesus Garcia and Lozano both being on the ticket might just be enough to get people out on the cold winter day.

Comment by southside irish Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:38 pm
Chuy Garcia very well might beat Mario Moreno. They are running some hard hitting negative mail. As for Lozano, he is being used by Garcia as a means to keep Ed Burke busy and out of their race. His people spend more time stealing signs than anything else.

Comment by L.S. Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:54 pm
I think Hoffman has a shot. The new Rasmussen poll has him down only 8. My guess is he’ll run out of real estate and fall a little bit short. But if has any money left to run ads on the bank story, he could pull it out. I’d put his odds at about 1 in 3.

Comment by moddem Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:09 pm
Menken, Rich said no dark horses who haven’t raised any money and have no shot at winning lol.

I think the biggest surprise will be by how much Toni Preckwinkle wins, especially in the suburbs.

I smell a couple upsets: Lozano over Burke, Chuy Garcia over Moreno, and while I don’t think he wins, Jorge Mujica getting over 45% of the vote against Lipinski.

Oh, and Quinn wins by under 1,000 votes and Dillard squeezes by for the GOP.

Comment by SweetLou Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:11 pm
===The new Rasmussen poll ===

300 respondents.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:18 pm
Dan Farley will win in a rout on Tuesday

Comment by g man Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:18 pm
Stroger–they never should have walked away from this guy in the first place. The establishment he believed should help him still underestimates his loyalists–and they will count on primary day.

Scott Lee Cohen–Everyone else assumed they were legends in their own minds. Cohen ran a real primary campaign.

Dan Burke goes down. Maybe not a surprise here (on the blog), but the numbers finally do him in.

Chuy Garcia, an honorable guy who never should have been ousted in the first place, makes a welcome comeback. Real workers, real voters.

Amy Bliefnick surprises the establishment and wins (she already has a countywide notch in her belt and she has worked circles around the competition). Dudley spent a lot of money on parties. Her R credentials will serve her well with the business and conservative types in the general.

Fred Snodgrass in the Hannig seat. That’s a sleeper. Fred comes out as the statesman.

Michele Zippay gets beat for Macoupin County Clerk by an Obama upstart. The kid filed nearly 1,000 signatures for a clerk’s race and has worked his tail off! Yikes.

Comment by Placebo Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:23 pm
Tom Morrison beats Suzzi Bassi and Kay Hatcher narrowly survives while McKenna gets beat. Tom Cross gets egg on his face for not protecting incumbents while engaging in a Don Quiote quest. So much for tilting at windmills…

Comment by 4 percent Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:56 pm
Public Policy Polling (not a Hoffman poll) showed that Hoffman is now in second place behind Alexi Giannoulias, and that poll was made before Hoffman’s TV ads started to be shown. He is the only candidate moving up in the polls and undecideds are breaking Hoffman’s way.

Hoffman has an unassailable clean record. He has proven to be incorruptible as Inspector General of the City of Chicago, and as Assistant U.S. Attorney with Patrick Fitzgerald he investigated and prosecuted drug and white collar crime.

Hoffman can win against GOP’s Mark Kirk, whereas Alexi is very vulnerable to attack considering that the FDIC has shown lack of confidence in him and other senior officers of his family’s Broadway Bank this week. Also, Alexi has personally made loans to Tony Rezko, a convicted felon, his bank has made loans to convicted mobsters, and he has mismanaged the Bright Start college savings fund.

Alexi would lose against Kirk. David Hoffman is therefore my choice for the next Senator from Illinois.

Comment by georger Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 4:00 pm
I’m with Ravenswood. Jim Madigan has done a great job letting voters know the real story on how Steans got her job. Cynic and Andersonville should take a closer look at Madigan’s cite - he’s got a ton of great proposals for how the state can prevent more finanial debacles (like the TIF abuses and selling off the parking meters). It would be great to see someone smart and innovative like Madigan in Springfield.

Comment by RidgeAve Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 4:08 pm
Enough. Answer the question and move on.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 4:09 pm
What up, kids? Hoffman’s at 23, Sexy Lexi at 31 according to the new Rasmussen. I think we may have a bona fide surge on our hands. Anyone been able to find the sample size?

Comment by North Side Nelly Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 4:13 pm
Who cares how big the sample size is? Its Rasmussen. When have they ever been right in a close race?

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 4:16 pm
Hynes peaked too soon. This race is coming back to Quinn. I wish I had a better feel for the Dem. Senate race since I don’t think anyone is excited about AG, but I’m not sure there is enough of a reason for most voters to vote for Hoffman. Upset: Raja over David Miller.

Comment by The 'Dale to HPark Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 4:37 pm
O, ya Cohen willl win.

Comment by New Leadership Now Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 4:52 pm
- Scott Lee Cohen sabotages Terry Link. Race opens up for Art Turner to win.

- Brady will finish third.

- Raja beats Miller.

Comment by Heller Highwater Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 4:57 pm
Alexi wins, but it’s close…too close. Shake-up close.

I’ll go with the bigger-than-expected Hynes margin of victory as the surprise, though. Quinn is bleeding out & Hynes could hit double digits.

Comment by Bardo2 Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 5:14 pm
On the GOP Side:

McKenna is the biggest loser, finishing 3rd in the governor’s race. He’s spent tons of money, but he’s just too boring.

Plummer is the surprise winner in the LG race. He’s run a brilliant campaign and has spent lots of personal money to take himself from an unknown to winning the primary in a 6 way race.

Dodge pulls a huge upset of Topinka, and then she finally goes away.

On the Democrat side, I think Alexi wins, but barely squeaks it out, which will be a surprise, considering where he was 6 weeks ago.

Comment by Steve-O Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 5:49 pm
Hoffman, Dillard and Hynes. I think anyone, other than Kirk, who was identified as a front-runner at the beginning will get beat. People are really honked off, and will take it out on the presumed early front-runners.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 6:03 pm
My upset picks are oberman and brady. Brady will do better downstate than what is expected and pull the upset. I also think hynes will win but it will be very close (less than 1 point). Hoffman will win and by at least 4 points. The latest news will sink Alexi.

Comment by illinois democrat Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 6:27 pm
Cohen probably will win.

Come to think of it, given the financial condition of Illinois, it certainly wouldn’t hurt to have a pawn broker on the job. Wonder how much he’ll give us for each state owned vehicle? Really funny, in a sad way, if you sit and think about it.

train111

Comment by train111 Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 6:43 pm
Hoffman only seems to be gaining in the polls. Will he win? It’s a long shot, but with all the news breaking about Giannoulias’s bank, and Hoffman surging, it certainly is possible.

Comment by dark horse Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 7:03 pm
My GOP predictions:

Patrick Hughes
Bill Brady
Matt Murphy
Jim Dodge
CD8: Maria Rodriguez
CD10:Dick Green
CD11:Adam Kinzinger
CD14:Randy Hultgren
LD54:Tom Morrison
LD56:Ryan Higgins
LD59:Dan Sugrue

Comment by Fatburger Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 7:31 pm
Plummer would not be a surprise for lieutenant governor. Brady will finish fifth for governor.

Dodge would be a David-and-Goliath surprise. Kelly has lost several sizable endorsements to Dodge in the home stretch.

Comment by T.J. Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 8:52 pm
Dan Burke wins in a landslide!! (Mexicans don’t vote.)

Nah…just kidding. Dan’s toast!!!

Comment by Oh really? Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 10:11 pm
Today, I have just seen a new Rasmussen Reports poll of likely Democratic Primary voters that finds David Hoffman continuing to surge. The poll shows that he is now within 8 points of Alexi Giannoulias (23% to 31%) with 24% of voters still undecided. The poll, taken right before Hoffman’s major statewide TV buy, shows considerable movement for him, which is bound to improve as more people see the ad. Hoffman has picked up 14 points since December, while Mr. Giannoulias remains stuck at 31%.

Comment by georger Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 10:40 pm
The surprise in that Comptrollers race will be that William Kelly comes in second and Dodge pulls up last. Nobody knows either of them and the Irish ballot name and bottom ballot position help Kelly. Last polling I saw in that race in early January had JBT ahead by 48 points, Kelly in second, ahead of Dodge by 4. Not much has changed since then.

The big surprise on the GOP side might be that Jim Ryan comes in fourth.

On the Dem side, Seals beats Hamos….not sure if that is a surprise or not but it won’t bode well for the Dems in the fall.

Comment by raising kane Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 10:54 pm
We should hope that Hoffman wins. Who in the heck is going to vote for a banker in these times!! Especially one whose bank has a dubious reputation for risk and funds questionable criminal types. If Braun would have run an anti-banker race in her re-election, she would have had a second term. Hoffman needs to be the nominee if Dems want to hold on to the seat.

Comment by Save the Senate Seat Friday, Jan 29, 10 @ 8:35 am
I think the margin of Tim Dudley’s win will be a surprise, and will put a fear into Kyle McCarter

Comment by Decatur Dem Friday, Jan 29, 10 @ 11:53 am
Predicting a surprise doesn’t make it a surprise.

A good campaign doesn’t get surprised, regardless of the outcome.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Jan 29, 10 @ 1:05 pm
The shocker will be Ari Friedman in the 10th. It won’t be surprising that he wins as he has had momentum for weeks, but I believe he will win handily. He campaigns with Lake Co. Sheriff Mark Curran, his grass roots efforts is amazing, his radio ads are the best by far, and he has coalitions and excited supporters.

Dold - Coulson - Col. Sanders; is anyone really enthused?

I predict Friedman, Coulson, Dold and the Col.

Comment by Deerfield Dave Friday, Jan 29, 10 @ 1:37 pm