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Que Sera, Sera

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* I’ve been thinking about and quietly discussing this scenario for at least a week, pondering what might happen during the upcoming session and after. It’s still too early to go too far into it, but “disaster” is a word that has crossed my mind…

If Gov. Pat Quinn winds up losing the Democratic primary on Tuesday, it will be more than just a stinging political defeat for him. It means Illinois would be stuck with a lame duck governor for the next year.

Losing the election would significantly weaken Quinn’s leverage over lawmakers and make it harder for him to get things done.

Democratic state Rep. Lou Lang says that could be dangerous given the state’s financial problem. The budget deficit could reach $13 billion, requiring a tax increase, painful budget cuts or both.

To take a page from Gov. Quinn and quote Abe Lincoln…

“The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time.”

Then, of course, there was Dan Quayle…

“The future will be better tomorrow.”

And Yogi Berra..

“The future ain’t what it used to be.”

* To quote another famous politician, “Where’s mine?”…

The Civic Committee of the Commercial Club announced that it is buying ads in major publications (including Crain’s), setting up a Web site — IllinoisIsBroke.com — and taking other steps to build pressure for big state pension changes.

Ads to appear on Friday and over the weekend in the Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times, Daily Herald and other publications urge voters “to keep in mind” that the state budget, by its estimate, currently is at least $14 billion in the hole. […]

“The state is headed for a huge financial disaster, which will affect everyone in the state,” said Jim Farrell, the retired chairman and CEO of Illinois Tool Works Inc., who is helping coordinate the campaign. “We’re trying to get the politicians to focus on this issue.”

This late in the election process, the ad won’t have much of an impact — particularly since it doesn’t urge a vote for or against any single candidate. But it is an indication that, as soon as the General Assembly resumes session, the group will step up lobbying and other activities in a campaign that committee President R. Eden Martin said could exceed $1 million.

Ummmm. Hmmm.

* Anyway, on to something else. Simon Edelman, that young, underpaid, overworked Quinn campaign staffer, has produced yet another marvelous Internet video for his boss that, unfortunately, only a few of us will see. Watch it…

* According to a press release I just received, US Sen. Dick Durbin will do a fly-around with Gov. Quinn tomorrow to tout the new federal cash for high speed rail. Durbin and Quinn will appear together in Chicago, Alton and Bloomington. Mayor Daley will be at the Chicago event. Nice press pops before the election, for sure.

* Related…

* Q-C fails to secure stimulus rail funds

* $1 billion high-speed rail grant less than Illinois sought

* High-speed rail plan to move at slower pace

* Illinois in line to get $1.2 billion for high-speed rail

* Metro-east will benefit from Obama’s high-speed rail plan

* High-speed rail funding seen coming down the tracks

* Federal money to state includes quicker rides to St. Louis

* Gov. Pat Quinn releases $10.3 million for Cole Hall and Stevens building renovations

* Students offer differing opinions on Cole Hall’s plans for renovation

* Officials say AFSCME deal good for both state, union

* Quinn administration hopes to save $200 M in deal

* Illinois, Under Siege, Turns to Big BAB Sale

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:38 pm

Comments

Hynes’ woman has nothing against Quinn’s women.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fc5iDJPdI-g

Comment by The Shadow Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:45 pm
The state is screwed either way. I agree that if he loses he doesn’t have any teeth but if he wins he will be too scared to make any meaningful moves until after the general election.
I wish this wasn’t a primary

Comment by Hank Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:48 pm
===if he loses he doesn’t have any teeth===

There’s more to it than that. Which Pat Quinn are we gonna see if he loses? I shudder to think.

===if he wins he will be too scared to make any meaningful moves until after the general election.===

That’s a very good point.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 1:52 pm
It’s inappropriate in state and local elections to have primaries this early. It simply paralyzes the political process and creates the effect of a permanent election campaign. In Minnesota they don’t even face a filing deadline until July and the primary is in mid-September.

Either way, it’s disruptive. I’m not sure if it’s a valid reason for choosing between Hynes and Quinn, however. Frankly, I see a loss as being somewhat liberating for Quinn. The problem is that I think it would also make Speaker Madigan more awkward to deal with.

Comment by Angry Chicagoan Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:05 pm
Mike Flannery reported yesterday on the Ford Explorer production moving to the South Chicago plant. He quoted Quinn on the tax credits used to recruit Ford to move production to the site.

Flannery goes on to note that when asked about using tax credits for all industries to recruit them to the state the governor had no answers.

Comment by Brennan Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:06 pm
I suppose the IllinoisIsBroke site is where they’ll roll out their new reinterpretation of the Constitution on earned pensions.

Comment by Cindy Lou Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:06 pm
==It simply paralyzes the political process and creates the effect of a permanent election campaign.==

Actually it protects incumbents. Want to ask Minnesotans what they think about slugging through the state from November through February?

Cold weather chills voter turnout.

Comment by Brennan Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:08 pm
If Quinn loses? I am not convinced that he will. But, if he does I hope he will work hard in the public’s interest. He took an oath and is therefore obligated, in my view.

I would like for him and mike madigan and his house dems to pass Quinn’s 50 percent tax too because i hope they don’t think they can just borrow all year long and continue to expand the debt without having the ability to generate some new revenue. Pat quinn should not make any “investments” as he likes to put it, which really just means that he wants to spend, because he shouldn’t be making such decisions.

the republicans have the dems coming and going, so the dems might as well go on and pass the tax increase without the repubs.

Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:12 pm
If Quinn loses, then one possible scenario is that the General Assembly tries to make him wear the jacket for everything. The best-case scenario there is that they actually take some of the tough medicine they need to (addressing spending, revenue, and pensions) with the idea that they can blame Quinn for it and he’ll be gone soon anyway. Quinn, to his credit, would probably be willing to take the hit for the good of the state if we end up in that scenario. Of course, it’s at least equally likely that if Quinn is a lame duck, the GA will throw the state’s problems over the transom by passing appropriations authority up to what it thinks the revenue will be and let Quinn sort it out from there (which we’ll all seen in the past), in which case he’ll end up taking the blame for massive cuts and none of the systemic problems will end up getting dealt with.

Comment by Kyle Boller's Clipboard Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:23 pm
- I would like for him and mike madigan and his house dems to pass Quinn’s 50 percent tax too… -

Oh thats nice WCW. You have dozens of comments railing against Quinn’s tax proposal, but really you’d love to see him do it if he loses because then if your guy wins he won’t have to take the blame for it. What a joke.

Comment by Small Town Liberal Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:25 pm
A lame duck governor for almost a full year? It’s happened before — Dan Walker lost the primary in 1976. Anyone remember what happened then?

Comment by Secret Square Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:27 pm
Rich, in this case you are a victim of your own success, your readers know the state is toast financially….

Comment by OneMan Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:29 pm
stl, i have consistently stated that a tax increase of somekind is inevitable to help deal with the state’s budget crisis. i have!

i have been very critical of house dems disengenuous claims that they simply cannot pass the tax without republicans signing on.

Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:30 pm
===Anyone remember what happened then?===

Good question.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:31 pm
Big Business wants to cut pension benefits. What a revelation. Do they feel that the state and school districts should start paying Social Security too? I am sure the Trib will give them as much space as they want.

Comment by Obamas' Puppy Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:32 pm
An interesting tid bit…Ethisphere, a magazine focused on ethics, just came out with its list of the 100 most influential people in ethics for the year. Guess who came in at #86? Why, our Governor, Pat Quinn. The specically mention that he did not abuse travel priviliges at Lite Guv and Guv. No other governor made the list.

Comment by Niles Township Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:33 pm
Actually - George Ryan would be the most recent example.

I could see Quinn taking up a cause like the Death Penalty (but different) that only requires executive action.

Comment by George Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:34 pm
What Durbin and Quinn not doing a high speed rail stop in Durbin’s home town Springfield? Probably scared they would be run out of town on the high speed rail!

Comment by Not Springfield? Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:42 pm
I don’t think the question should be how will Quinn govern if he loses the primary, it should be what is the speaker’s plan. I’m sure the chess master has laid out every possible scenario not only for the primary but also the general. It’s simple really, what does the speaker want and how does he intend to get it? The gov is just his pawn.

Comment by casual observer Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:42 pm
If Quinn loses the primary, he may return to his earlier incarnation of Quinn the eternal populist. Or he may be Quinn the avenger.

Get even by forcing the legislature to make hard decisions on the budget and other matters during an election year. Holding them hostage in overtime sessions until “they do the right thing.”

Rich, you would have a lot to write about the next nine months if Quinn loses and decides to get even.

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:48 pm
Would Quinn be crazy enough to run for governor as an independent if he lost the primary? Could he?

Comment by pothole Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:49 pm
Quinn’s mom looks and sounds GREAT! for her age. I can only hope that I hold up that well should I live long enough to reach my early 90s.

pothole, don’t give him or his cult-like supporters any ideas, ok.

Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:52 pm
He can’t.

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:53 pm
I believe that you have to support the candidate that you believe in. To me, blindly voting for the imcumbent because you are afraid what might happen when he / she is a lame duck is a poor use of your vote. Remember, the sun always rises in the morning.

Pothole - that cannot happen (’86 Democratic Primary LaRouche debacle)

Comment by Stones Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:55 pm
really WCW, I think you have a ton of nerve for that last comment…as Rich says, bite me…in a way, I hope Hynes pulls it off on Tuesday just so I can watch him squirm for the next NINE months…

Comment by Loop Lady Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:58 pm
Rich, there are only a handful of scenarios…based on my Game Theory analysis, the most likely scenario is that after a bunch of political posturing that ends in a stalemate, the Democrats pass a Doomsday budget, knowing that we’ll revisit it in November…

…if a moderate Republican wins in November, a tax hike will be passed before they take office, but otherwise we’re looking at 2011 at the earliest, because the Republican Party will want Hynes to wear the jacket if he wins and Business interests will want their conservative GOP guy in the Mansion to get the best deal for them.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:58 pm
47 is right. Unlike Connecticut, Illinois has a sore loser law.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 2:59 pm
Pothole - Quinn can’t run as an independent, but he could endorse the Green Party candidate, which would be an interesting spectacle.

He could also declare “The People have spoken,” and step down. That would make Lisa Madigan the governor, I believe, which would also be interesting.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:03 pm
In my humble opinion:

We have career politicians who are intent on serving those (lobbyists and contributors) who helped elect them first and foremost. Their allegiance, secondly, is to themselves and their careers, and then last to the voters. I do not see any of this changing, regardless of who is elected.

Either way, the balance of the term before the general election will be used to blame others and sit idly until we hit the wall and fall completely apart. I blame both parties equally. I blame the selfish attitude of all our elected officials.

We have let ourselves be led by the nose by those we elected, who themselves are led by the nose by the people pouring money into their campaigns. We are a pitiful lot, not looking out for each other, but looking out for what is in our own best interest. We are a house divided.

When I vote, it will be for someone new, for anything other than who we have, for hope.

When you say “disaster” you hit the nail on the head. Until all of us stop pitting one group against another, grabbing what we can for ourselves, and holding our hand out for something we haven’t earned, we will fail.

I hear “for my district”, “for my constituents”, for my fellow union workers.” What happened to “for my fellow Americans?” We are smothering the greatness of our state and trashing the opportunity for success. Is it any wonder we see disaster in our thoughts? It’s time we set the agenda for success.

I apologize for the rant, but I see too much divisiveness and too little “lets do this together.”

Comment by Justice Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:04 pm
Quinn has been sitting on his hands since he was inaugurated so that he wouldn’t make any enemies this year. If he wins, he will continue to sit on his hands.

If he loses, we may actually see the guy we thought we got a year ago.

I don’t like Quinn the Governor. I am willing to risk making him Quinn the Lame Duck.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:06 pm
By the way - no way would the Speaker hand a Republican Governor a tax increase (and all that great new revenue) on his way into office. Why give him the benefit of the new revenue without the pain of having to vote for/sign the tax increase?

Comment by George Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:15 pm
===Why give him the benefit of the new revenue without the pain of having to vote for/sign the tax increase? ===

Exactly

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:15 pm
WCW - Oh, I know you’ve supported Hynes’ mythical progressive income tax. But you’re lying if you say you haven’t jumped all over Quinn for proposing a tax that could actually be a reality in time to fix the budget, not one that requires a constitutional amendment that may happen years down the road.

Comment by Small Town Liberal Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:17 pm
“We have career politicians who are intent on serving those (lobbyists and contributors) who helped elect them first and foremost. Their allegiance, secondly, is to themselves and their careers, and then last to the voters. I do not see any of this changing, regardless of who is elected.”–Justice

Justice, I agree 100 percent.

Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:18 pm
A “disaster” as opposed to the runaway success of Quinn’s tenure so far?

Comment by Dirt Digger Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:18 pm
George has me convinced.

If Quinn loses next Tuesday, no tax hike until 2011.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:46 pm
Can you provide the location of the Bloomington HSR presser?

Comment by Apple Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:47 pm
===If Quinn loses next Tuesday, no tax hike until 2011. ===

Probably even if he wins. lol

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:50 pm
Apple, the presser is at 2:30 near the Amtrak Depot in Normal (100 Parkinson St.)

Comment by Dan Weber Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:52 pm
Whew!!! I just finished selling all of my stock in Illinois - now I’ll be able to sleep at night.

Comment by A Citizen Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 3:54 pm
The change in the law to insure that Illinois was right in the mix for helping nominate its’ favorite son for president is now reaping benefits that were perhaps unintended. It appears that those in power don’t want that law to be changed since it appears to benefit them. And so it goes.

Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 4:06 pm
Of course, a lame duck Quinn could “go rogue” and show Palin what that really means. If he switches to his populist mode and takes up a new cause every couple of weeks and starts issuing exec orders and canning the campaign workers that are camping out as employees in every department. In the words of Kelly Bundy: “The mind wobbles.”

Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 4:45 pm
@ Dan Weber Thanks!

Comment by Apple Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 5:39 pm
STL,
Were it not for the size of budget crisis I would not support any tax increase. I’m not entirely thrilled about a progressive tax. Don’t know where you were, but I’ve stated all of this before. If you don’t wan to, you don’t have to believe it.

Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 5:59 pm
You’re welcome.

Comment by Dan Weber Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 6:06 pm
I think Dan W. turned to playing gin full time rather than 8 hours a day…Nortie you out there?

Comment by Reddbyrd Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 6:14 pm
lol. Yeah. He was pretty much ignored

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 6:22 pm
–If Quinn loses the primary, he may return to his earlier incarnation of Quinn the eternal populist. Or he may be Quinn the avenger–

Avenger. Count on it. To lose after playing ball with a lot of these guys…. He wouldn’t take it well.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 7:19 pm
The best possible scenario for the state of Illinois is Quinn loses the primary. At least financial editor thinks it is possible for California to default on their debt (http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/miarticle.htm?id=5917); Illinois won’t be far behind. Quinn needs to go now; the state can’t wait until Nov or next year to get back on track.

Comment by Angry Republican Thursday, Jan 28, 10 @ 7:48 pm