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Polling charts, exit polling and electoral predictions

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* Polling charts can be very helpful in analyzing campaigns. These are from pollster.com. Their javascript is not working properly, so I’m using screen caps. Click the pics for larger images.

Let’s start with the Democratic governor’s race…

The trend is obviously not the governor’s friend. The question now is whether he’s stopped the bleeding. Still, his job performance numbers with undecideds are just awful. Very tough to overcome. And his campaign mechanism has imploded in recent days as Quinn has taken complete charge of his schedule and his message.

The Republicans…

For me, the question here is whether McKenna can get himself over the top. He has the bucks and the message, but he’s still a relatively unknown quantity to regular Repubs. Notice how everyone is moving up but Jim Ryan, who sat on his big lead, didn’t raise enough money and could pay for those mistakes tomorrow.

Also, I just got a call from the Adam A campaign. Apparently Rush Limbaugh just called him “the Scott Brown of Illinois.” He’s been getting a ton of late help from conservative media the past few days, but, as I said, it’s late. The Right was so outraged by Mark Kirk that they ignored a guy who had a shot.

…Adding… I just listened to the audio file of Rush’s show. He didn’t mention Adam A by name. Probably because he didn’t know how to pronounce it.

* The Senate Democratic primary…

That downward trend line for Giannoulias and the steep upward line for Hoffman are what has the Giannoulias campaign more than a bit freaked right now. He’s still got the lead, but it’s dwindling and there are still lots of undecideds.

Nate Silver thinks it’s a two-person race…

The race is for all intents and purposes between Giannoulias and Hoffman; Jackson, a former communications spokeswoman for Rod Blagojevich, will probably be limited to 15-20 percent of the vote, mostly coming from Chicago’s predominately Afrian-American South Side. Hoffman, however, has gradually been creeping up on Giannoulias, the front-runner.

And the Republicans…

No analysis necessary.

* Oh, goodie. Exit polling. I’m not sure how scientific this will be, but I’ll be watching tomorrow. From a press release…

The Chicago Current, Chicago’s political journal, will conduct exit polling for the Feb. 2 Illinois primary election. Voting data from polling places across Cook County will be collected to provide media outlets and the public with accurate trends to gauge voters’ preferences.

Analysis of the data will be available throughout Tuesday at www.chicagocurrent.com. Data will include trends for the Democratic Illinois Senate and gubernatorial races, as well as for the Cook County Board president’s race.

“Our study will show which candidates are trending upward or downward throughout the day, while providing statistical analysis of which way voters are leaning,” says Current editor Geoff Dougherty. […]

Current reporters will be following the race throughout the day, and reporting on Twitter, using the hashtag #ILVote.

Fun.

* Bernie Schoenburg has posted his statewide predictions, which were compiled by Eric Zorn…

* GOVERNOR: Hynes, Dillard
* U.S. SENATOR: Giannoulias, Kirk
* LT .GOV. Turner./ Murphy
* COMPTROLER . Miller/Topinka
* TREAS: Kelly (Dan Rutherford is running unopposed for the GOP)

Russ Stewart and Tom Roeser have also posted their predictions and my intern Dan Weber has compiled them for easy viewing…

* Russ Stewart:
Gov - Hynes, McKenna
Senate - Hoffman, Kirk
10th - Seals, Dold
Cook County Prez - Preckwinkle, Keats
DuPage County Chmn - Pankau
Lt Gov - Link, Murphy
Treasurer - Oberman
Comptroller - Topinka, Miller

* Tom Roeser:
Gov - Hynes, Dillard
Senate - Hoffman, Patrick Hughes
10th - Hamos, Friedman
Cook County Prez - Stroger, Garrido
DuPage County Chmn - Cronin
Lt Gov - Link, Plummer
Treasurer -Oberman
Comptroller - Dodge, Krislov

Your predictions?

* Zorn also has a long list of newspaper endorsements in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:28 pm

Comments

Gov: ?,?
U.S. Senate: Kirk, Alexi G.
10th: Seals, Dold
Treasuer: Kelly, Rutherford
Comptroller: Dodge, Miller

Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:40 pm
Gov - Quinn, Dillard
Senate - Hoffman, Kirk
10th - Hamos, Dold
Cook County Prez - Preckwinkle, Keats
Lt Gov - Turner, Murphy
Treasurer - close race between Kelly and Oberman
Comptroller - Miller

Comment by Niles Township Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:45 pm
Gov: Hynes, Ryan
Lt. Gov: Cohen, Murphy
Sen: Alexi, Kirk
10th: Hamos, Coulson
Treasurer: Kelly, Rutherford
Comp: Miller, Topinka
CC Board Pres: Toni, R doesn’t matter
DuPage Pres: D doesn’t matter, Cronin

Comment by Obamarama Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:50 pm
Gov. - Quinn, Dillard
Lt. Gov - Link, Murphy
Senate - Alexi, Kirk
10th - Hamos, Coulson
Cook Prez - Preckwinkle, does it really matter?
Treasurer - Kelly
Comptroller - Raja

Comment by SweetLou Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:50 pm
Gov. Hynes By 4%/Dillard By 1.5%
Lite Gov. Link by .5%/Murph
US Sen. Alexi Geo by 3%/Kirk 6%

.. Gawd this is fun

Comment by VoterUSA Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:51 pm
First off, why give Tom Roeser’s predictions any credibility? His GOP picks are just the darlings of the right wing who have no chance of winning (with the exception of Dillard who has Jack Roeser’s backing and Plummer who’s spending his dad’s money.) Roeser forfiets any credibility claiming that Hughes or Friedman or Dodge will win anything, ever.

Predictions not based on personal favorites or irrational bias…

Gov-Hynes/McKenna
Sen-Alexi/Kirk
Lt.G-Cohen/Murphy
Treas-Kelly
Comp-Krislov/Topinka
CD-10-Seals/Dold
CD-14-Hastert
Cook prez-Preck/Keats

Comment by E Pluribus Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:52 pm
Gov: Hynes, McKenna
Lt. Gov: Turner, Plummer
Senate: Hoffman, Kirk
Treasurer: Oberman
Comptroller: Miller, Topinka

Comment by anon Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:55 pm
Gov - Hynes, Ryan
Senate - Alexi, Kirk
Cook County Prez - Preckwinkle, who really cares?
Lt Gov - Link, Murphy
Treasurer - Kelly, Topinka
Comptroller - Raja, Miller

What about your predictions, Rich? Or are ya waiting until it’s too late for the [insert name here] campaign to issue a triumphant press release touting “Illinois political uberguru Rich Miller predict’s I’ll win!” press release?

Comment by TJ Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:57 pm
CD 14: Hultgren
Cook County Board: ?, Keats
Cook County Assessor: Figueroa (i’m praying for you cook county people);)

Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:57 pm
The exit polling is only for Chicago area? Too bad.

Also, remember, voters to vote for all “constitutional” offices or your ballot could be thrown out or an election judge may review it. Champaign County is the only county keeping watch in favor of voters regarding the new law.

I also just heard Rush mention Adam A-ski and Lech Walesa.

Comment by Peggy SO-IL Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:00 pm
===What about your predictions, Rich? ===

I don’t do predictions.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:01 pm
Pat Hughes has to be the biggest flop of the primary season. for a conservative to not be able to get off the ground given the state of the moderate wing of the gop says a lot about him.
senate:alexi/senator mark kirk
gov:hynes/mckenna
ltgov:hendon/murphy
10th:seals/coulson

Comment by shore Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:01 pm
My prediction is that no one will ever pay Tom Roeser for his predictions. Hughes? Friedman? Stroger (he wishes)? Krislov?

Comment by JonShibleyFan Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:02 pm
Gah, and I just noticed the mistake in my predictions. Obviously, Topinka’s not running for Treasurer…. but, it doesn’t matter, as I’d have her losing in the general whether it’s up against Raja for Comp and Kelly for Treasurer.

Comment by TJ Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:02 pm
U.S.Senate-Alexi
Gov.-Quinn
Lt.Gov.-Link
Treasurer-Kelly
Comtroller-Miller

Comment by (618) Democrat Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:04 pm
Rich:

Predictions 24 hours out aren’t easy, but it might be more insightful to ask folks (if they can put aside partisan differences) who they think will be our next governor, lite guv, senator etc.

Comment by Niles Township Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:07 pm
GOV-HYNES/DILLARD
LT. GOV- LINK/PLUMMER
U.S. SENATE ALEXI/KIRK

Comment by Tired Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:07 pm
Lets see…I’ll go with
Gov - Hynes/Dillard
Sen - Giannoulias/Kirk
Lt Gov - Whoever occupies the top slot on the ballot (both Dem and Rep)
Comptroller - Raja/Topinka
Treasurer - Kelly/Rutherford
Cook Cty Prez - Preckwinkle/top slot

Comment by jerry 101 Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:07 pm
NT, one election at a time, man.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:08 pm
Gov - Hynes, Adam
Senate - Hoffman, Kirk
Cook County Prez - Preckwinkle
Lt Gov - Henderson (just a hope), Murphy
Treasurer - Oberman
Comptroller - Topinka
CD 14 - Hastert

Comment by OneMan Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:10 pm
I predict Armageddon if Tom Roeser’s predictions are 100% accurate.

US Senate: Giannoulias/Kirk
Governor: Hynes/Dillard
Lt. Governor: Who cares*
11th: Kinzinger

*except for the inordinate amount of jockeying and promotion that has occured this cycle for this do-nothing position.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:11 pm
Well, maybe it is a better Wednesday morning question. Have fun tomorrow!

Comment by Niles Township Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:11 pm
I predict the groundhog will not see his shadow tomorrow and we’ll have 10 more months of Governor Quinn.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:12 pm
-Hynes by 6 points over Quinn
-McKenna by 5 points over Dillard
-Kirk but Hughes will get between 22-24%
-Alexi wins by at least 10 points.

Comment by Pre Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:28 pm
Gov–Hynes/McKenna
Lite Gov–Link/Murphy
Comptroller–Raja/Topinka
Treasurer–Oberman
Cook Co–Preckwinkle

14th Congress–Foster/Hastert

train111
train111

Comment by train111 Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:28 pm
Gov–Hynes/McKenna
Lite Gov–Link/Murphy
Comptroller–Raja/Topinka
Treasurer–Oberman
Cook Co–Preckwinkle

14th Congress–Foster/Hastert

Forgot on the 1st post

Senate: Hoffman/Kirk

train111

Comment by train111 Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:29 pm
Peggy, DeKalb County (where I’m from) has tried educating the public on that issue… hopefully the judges are informed. Our Clerk said that the machines (we have the scantron type) will alert the judge that you didn’t vote in a race, and that the judge just has to come clear the message, but that the rest of the ballot will still be counted. Hopefully that’s actually what happens. :/

Comment by Kristen Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:30 pm
By the way, I got a “party” robocall for Alexi, Quinn and O’Brien.

Comment by Niles Township Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:30 pm
Governor — Hynes/ Dillard
US Senate — Hoffman/ Kirk
Lt. Gov. — Link/ Murphy
Treasurer — Kelly/Rutherford
Comptroller - Miller/ Topinka
Cook Co. Pres. — Preckwinkle - landslide!!

Comment by dupage progressive Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:36 pm
Sen: Alexi, Kirk
Gov: Quinn, McKenna
Lt. Gov: (meh…)
AG: Madigan, some poor sap
SOS: White, another poor sap
Compt: Raja, JBT
Treas: Kelly, Rutherford

Comment by Pot calling kettle Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:37 pm
These are not who I wish will win…

Gov - Quinn/McKenna
Senate - Giannoulais/Kirk
10th - Hamos/Dold
Cook County Prez - Preckwinkle/Keats
Lt Gov - Link/Murphy
Treasurer - Kelly/Rutherford
Comptroller - Miller/Topinka

I also hope I am wrong!

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:42 pm
Gov: Hynes, Dillard
Lt. Gov: Turner, Murphy
Comptroller: Krishnamoorthi, Topinka
Treasurer: Oberman
SGOP: Kirk
SDem: Alexi
8th CD GOP: Beveridge (sp?)
10th CD GOP: Dold
10th CD Dem: Seals
11th CD GOP: Kinzinger
14th CD GOP: Hultgren
18th CD Dem: Kirner
Cook Co. Prez GOP: Keats
Cook Co. Prez Dem: Preckwinkle

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:45 pm
[…] UPDATE: More here, including a poll that suggests it’ll still be hard for Andrezejewski to make it, but who knows? […]

Pingback by Instapundit » Blog Archive » A RELIABLE READER EMAILS that Rush Limbaugh just endorsed Tea Party-backed Illinois Gubernatorial ca… Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:49 pm
Gov: Quinn 53%-47%
GOP: Dilard 24%, McKenna 22%, Brady 20%, Ryan 20%, Proft 8%, Adam A 8%

Cook County Pres: Periwinckle
Lt Gov: Turner, Murphy
Comp: Raja
Treasurer: Oberman
10th CD: Hamos over Seals

African-American turnout carry’s it for Quinn and he wins downstate. Periwinckle wins with at least 48% Brown nor Stroger fail to break 20%

Comment by Big Policy Nerd Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:51 pm
The one thing I know for sure (?) - Look for Preckwinkle to get real close to 50% in a four way race …

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:53 pm
ov - Quinn/McKenna
Senate - HOFFMAN/Kirk
10th - Hamos/Dold
Lt Gov - Link/Murphy
Treasurer - Oberman/Rutherford
Comptroller - Miller/Topinka

And dare I say it again…HOFFMAN, HOFFMAN

Comment by LaurenA Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:54 pm
p.s.

@ Rich

Rich, my apologies but I forgot… Are you pulling a DEM or GOP ballot this round. If it is a DEM ballot, will you at least come clean and tell us if you are going to vote for Ricky “Hollywood” Hendon? Inquiring minds want to know.

Comment by Big Policy Nerd Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:54 pm
I am predicting Roeser had a few too many glasses of wine before the Hughes pick (or did we not want snark here)?

Comment by Bakersfield Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:56 pm
U.S. Senate (percentages reflect chance of winning, not vote totals)

Giannoulias (40%), Hoffman (30%), Jackson (20%)

IL-03

Lipinski (98%), Mujica (2%)

IL-07

Davis (90%), other 10% with Ascot being the most likely

IL-10

Hamos (65%), Seals (35%)

Gov

Hynes (55%), Quinn (45%)
Lt. Gov. Turner (35%), Cohen (30%), Boland (12%), Link (11%), Castillo(10%), Hendon (2%)

Comp

Raja (40%), Miller (30%), Krislov (20%)

Treasurer

Kelly (97%), Oberman (3%)

President of Cook County Board

Preckwinkle (56%), O’Brien (28%), Brown (20%), Stroger (6%)

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:57 pm
Sen - Kirk, Hoffman
Guv - McKenna, Hynes
LG - Murphy, Turner

AG, SOS - Lisa, Jesse vs. Dr. Seuss’ “thing 1 & thing 2″ or two candidates unknown outside their families, one of those two options…

Comp - Raja, jbt
Trea - Kelly, Rutherford

14th - Hultgren, Foster

Cook County Prez - As stated, Preckwinkle

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:01 pm
I’m pulling an R ballot this year.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:02 pm
remember pollster.com is a compilation of all other polls so its not a new poll. It probably includes the Tribune’s orginal poll inflating Ryan’s numbers.

Senate: Kirk/Alexi

Governor: Dillard/Quinn

Lt. Gov: Plummer/Cohen

I will go out on a limb and rank the GOP as Dillard, Brady, McKenna, Andgrweski, Ryan, Proft.

Comment by 4 percent Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:05 pm
Senate: Hoffman, Kirk
Gov: Hynes, Brady
Lt. Gov: Cohen, Plummer
10: Seals, Crofts
Comptroller: Topinka and D doesn’t matter
Treasurer: Oberman, Rutherford
7th Senate: Steans

Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:06 pm
47, don’t be a wus. What are your predictions for real? Inquiring minds that count on your wisdom want to know.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:10 pm
Latest poll in this compilation… 1/25.

Do I need to list all the things happened since then, Walesa endorsement, Beck & Rush today, and that’s just for Adam.

Big news on both McKenna and Dillard too (largely negative).

Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:13 pm
I hate predictions Cynic. So the following are who I hope will win more than who I know will win:

Giannoulias/Lowery
Hynes/Proft
Turner/Plummer
Raja/Topinka
Oberman
Preckwinkle/Keats

And Ann Williams for 11th St. Rep.

Regardless, I am on record predicting the start of Spring; March 21. And pitchers and catchers report this month.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:16 pm
It’s gotta be tough for Rich. The best person for the office would probably make a lot less news, resulting in less traffic to the web site.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:16 pm
That’s why I’m voting for Proft. lol

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:17 pm
Gov: Quinn/McKenna
Sen: Alexi/KIrk
Lt. Gov: Link/Murphy
Cook Co Board Pres: Preckwinkle
Comptroller: Miller/Topinka
Treasurer: Kelly
10th: Seals
Ann Williams beats the two dudes.

Comment by Anon Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:23 pm
Rich-

ROFL!

Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:25 pm
Kristen. That’s good news. I saw a wire article in the BND about the possible complications tomorrow.

Comment by Peggy SO-IL Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:31 pm
US Senate — Giannoulias/ Kirk
Governor — Hynes/ Dillard
Lt. Gov. — Link/ Cook
Treasurer — Kelly/Rutherford
Comptroller - Miller/ Topinka
Cook Co. Pres. — Preckwinkle/ Keats
DuPage Co. Chair. - Cronin
10th CD - Hamos/ Coulson

Comment by Anon Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:41 pm
Gov: Quinn/ McKenna

Comment by joe the IL plumber Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:47 pm
Gov: Quinn/ McKenna
Lt. Gov: Link/ Murphy
Treasurer: Kelly/ Rutherford
Comptroller: Miller/ JBT

Comment by joe the IL plumber Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:48 pm
CD 8: Bean vs Rodriguez
CD 10: Seals vs Coulson

Comment by Ela Observer Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:48 pm
For those races that appear on my ballot:

U.S. Senate: Giannoulias/Kirk
Governor: Hynes/Dillard
Lt. Governor: Link/Murphy
Attorney General: Madigan/Kim*
Secretary of State: White/Rodriguez*
Treasurer: Oberman/Rutherford
Comptroller: Miller/Topinka
10th CD: Seals/Dold

I decided to really go out on the limb and include all uncontested races.

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:58 pm
Rich,

How about what is the “scariest” ticket each party can have … “scary” good or “scary” scary …

Like a Hoffman, Hynes, Turner, Lisa, Jesse, et al for the Dems ….

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:01 pm
On Roeser’s radio program last night — which I try never to miss because you really never do know what he might say! — he couched these “predictions” as preferences. I’m usually not shy about political predictions but in the two big races — GooberFest — all I’ve got are coin-flip style guesses. Quinn v. Proft would make for the best copy, though….

Comment by Eric Zorn Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:02 pm
Old Guard will get out the vote for the GOP
Gov McKenna
Lt Gov Murphy
US Sen Kirk
Comptroller Topinka
CD 14 Hastert

So much for reform in Illinois if this proves correct. I would like to believe the Adam A. surge but am not convinced.

Comment by Oswego Joe Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:03 pm
Joe… find another town! …lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:04 pm
Gov-Hynes/McKenna
Surrogates for two influential Dem families. Should jointly write a book, “Making It On Your Own in Illinois Politics”. lol

Lt Gov-Link/Plummer

I just don’t see Murphy clinging tight enough to McKenna’ coattails, even though he’s been speaking for McKenna in his radio ads.Does McKenna have laryngitas, or just does he not have anything to say in ads and debates?

Senator: Gianoullis/Kirk

Broadway Bank will catch up with Alexi in the General, not the primary. Kirk’s radical left wing postions on abortion and gay rights might actually be an asset in November.

Comptroller: Miller/Topinka

Judy shows that a raspy cigarettes and whisky voice and being a political combine retread beats youth and competence in people like Dodge every time in the GOP. Miller’s bright, attractive and trustworthy. If I vote for any Dem, it’ll be for him against Judy.

Cook County Pres: Preckwinkle v. Garrido

Can African American Chicago Alderman beat bright, young Hispanic Policeman/lawyer, who has “Dem” written all over him, in Cook County? Should be interesting.

Comment by PalosParkBob Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:12 pm
Quinn & McKenna
Hoffman & Kirk
Link & Murphy
Miller & Judy
Kelly & Rutherford

Preckwinkle

Comment by conventional wisdom Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:31 pm
for gov. I would say it will be Hynes & Dillard who win the primary.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:38 pm
All the major races on my ballot:
Senate: Kirk/Alexi G.
Governor: Adam/Hynes (what the heck, the beck/rush endorsements might do it, and there’s no clear front-runner on the GOP side)
Lt. Governor: Murphy/Cohen
Treasurer: Kelly
Comptroller: Topinka/Miller
10th Congress: Hamos/Dold

Comment by Ben S. Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:42 pm
Senate: kirk/ alexi G
Gov: Dillard/hynes
Lt. Gov: Plummer/Cohen
Treas.: Rutherford/ Kelly
Comp.: Topinka/ Muller

I truely believe with all of Mckenna’s tricks and money, Murphy and Mckenna will be out. I think dillard will win by 3% and not many people believe plummer can win against the machine, but he has a strong support up north as well as down south. Sorry, Mckenna, Murphy…your corruption will end feb 2, 2010

Comment by ironman Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 5:17 pm
DuPage Board Chair - Debra Olson

Comment by True Observer Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 5:25 pm
Gov - Quinn & Ryan
Lt Gov - Turner & Murphy
Senate - Alexi & Kirk
Comp. - Miller & Topinka
Treas - Kelly & Rutherford

Quinn is the Gov and will win a close. Ryan will do very well in DuPage and that will put him over the top..there is no downstate candidate so it will be split up..Mckenna didn’t show up to close the deal, and Dillard peaked a little to late.

I do think that if theis were a March Primary…then Hynes and Dillard would win.

Comment by scoot Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 5:45 pm
Senate: Kirk/Alexi
Gov: Ryan/Hynes
Lt. Gov: Murphy/Link
10: Dold/Hamos
14: Hastert
11: Kinzinger
8: Honestly, no clue; none of them have done anything to establish themselves as the frontrunner…I’ll guess here and say Rodriguez just because she has the most endorsements, is a woman, and began her campaign the earliest, but other than that I have no other real info to base my prediction off.
County Board: Keats/Preckwinkle (On a side note, I know its a long shot, but I really hope Roger can pull this one off, he will get a good deal of money invested into his campaign and with high suburban turnout and a none-inspired urban electorate…maybe, just maybe; depends on if his strategy, targeting and message are executed/delivered properly.)
DuPage: Cronin
Comptroller: Topinka/Miller
Treasuer: Kelly

We’ll see how these playout.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 5:52 pm
Sorry Rich, forgot to sign my last post.

Senate: Kirk/Alexi
Gov: Ryan/Hynes
Lt. Gov: Murphy/Link
10: Dold/Hamos
14: Hastert
11: Kinzinger
8: Honestly, no clue; none of them have done anything to establish themselves as the frontrunner…I’ll guess here and say Rodriguez just because she has the most endorsements, is a woman, and began her campaign the earliest, but other than that I have no other real info to base my prediction off.
County Board: Keats/Preckwinkle (On a side note, I know its a long shot, but I really hope Roger can pull this one off, he will get a good deal of money invested into his campaign and with high suburban turnout and a none-inspired urban electorate…maybe, just maybe; depends on if his strategy, targeting and message are executed/delivered properly.)
DuPage: Cronin
Comptroller: Topinka/Miller
Treasuer: Kelly

We’ll see how these playout.

Comment by TW Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 5:53 pm
I don’t watch TV at home — I’d rather spend my limited funds on internet than cable. Normally, I only watch TV when I am visiting someone else’s home, or stuck in a doctor’s office, quick-lube station, etc. This means I have been, mercifully, spared most of the campaign ads

Well, today I was in a situation where I was able to watch about 2 hours of daytime TV, and in that time, saw McKenna’s ad slamming Dillard for endorsing Obama at least half a dozen times. Maybe more than that. I also saw, twice, Brady’s ad slamming Dillard for the same thing.

If Dillard has been getting hammered that badly downstate (and God knows how much in the Chicago media market) then, sad to say, he’s probably toast. McKenna will probably win by 3-4 percent, with Dillard and Ryan second and third.

The only commercial I saw that turned me off more than McKenna’s, was the NBC promo for Celebrity Apprentice with Rod!

Other races: Hynes pulls off the gov win on the Dem side; Kirk and Alexi G. for Senate; Murphy and Cohen for Lt. Gov; and that’s as far as my crystal ball can see

Comment by Bookworm Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 7:12 pm
I’ll be the first and maybe only one to say it:

If past trends among black Democrats as late deciders hold, Hoffman will come in third and this is actually a race between Alexi and Cheryle Jackson.

If you think that’s far-fetched, remember that Joyce Washington ran an invisible campaign for Lt. Governor in 2002, and still came in second to Pat Quinn with 32% of the vote in a three-way race.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 7:19 pm
Gov. Hynes & Brady
Senate Hoffman & Kirk
Lt. Gov no clue on the Dem side & Murphy

Comment by RMW Stanford Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 7:53 pm
Democrats
10th Dist - too close. Three way split with Richardson as a big surprise.

Gov - Hines by 3 points

Senate - Hoffman by 2 points. Close 3 way race.

Comment by Anon Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 8:30 pm
Why not include everything?!

Gov: Pat Quinn vs. Kirk Dillard
Lt. Gov: Scott Lee Cohen vs. Matt Murphy
AG: Lisa Madigan vs. Steve Kim
SOS: Jesse White vs. Robert Enriquez
Comptroller: David Miller vs. Judy Baar Topinka
Treasurer: Robin Kelly vs. Dan Rutherford

Cook County Prez: Toni Preckwinkle vs. Rogers Keats
Cook County Board of Review: Brendan Houlihan vs. Dan Patlak

U.S. Senate: Alexi Giannoulias vs. Mark Kirk

CD 1: Bobby Rush
CD 2: Jesse Jackson Jr. vs. Issac Hayes
CD 3: Dan Lipinksi vs. Michael Bendas
CD 4: Luis Gutierrez
CD 5: Mike Quigley vs. David Ratowitz
CD 6: Ben Lowe vs. Peter Roskam
CD 7: Danny Davis vs. Mark Weiman
CD 8: Melissa Bean vs. Maria Rodriguez
CD 9: Jan Schakowsky vs. Joel Pollak
CD 10: Dan Seals vs. Robert Dold
CD 11: Debbie Halvorson vs. Adam Kinziger
CD 12: Jerry Costello vs. Theresa Kormos
CD 13: Scott Harper vs. Judy Biggert
CD 14: Bill Foster vs. Ethan Hastert
CD 15: David Gill vs. Tim Johnson
CD 16: George Gaulrapp vs. Don Manzullo
CD 17: Phil Hare vs. Bobby Schilling
CD 18: D.K. Hirner vs. Aaron Schock
CD 19: Tim Bagwell vs. John Shimkus

Comment by Suburban Republican Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 8:44 pm
Gov: Dem, Quinn by less that 2 points
GOP, Adam A. in an absolute stunner

Senate: Alexi (all three bunched very close,) Kirk

Lt. Gov: Cohen, Murphy

Cook Pres: Preckwinkle (GOP doesn’t matter unless stroger wins.)

Comment by Sam E. Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 8:56 pm
Weber made a mistake. Tom Roeser “agreed” with Stewart that Keats will win the primary, but likes Garrido as a candidate.

Comment by Conservative Republican Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 8:58 pm
Gov-Hynes/McKenna (belch)
Senate-Alexi/Kirk (Kirk in the fall)
Lt. Gov-Cohen/Murphy
Treasurer-Kelly/Rutherford (Rutherford in the fall-Alexi’s banking issues will hurt her)
Comptroller-Miller/Topinka

Comment by ourMagician Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 9:02 pm
Hynes-Adam
alexi-Kirk

Comment by votecounter Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 9:37 pm
I was very pessimistic about Quinn as I went out on the near NW side this past weekend. However, plenty of apathy and ignorance around. With the traditional organizations able to pull out voters, the black vote, and many suburbanites who would vote for Hynes pulling a GOP ballot this time, PQ’s still got a chance. My gut tells me it will be Hynes, though. Also, Alexi, Turner, Kelly, Preckwinkle & Berrios.

Also, my history with Russ Stewart going back 30 years is he’s “prediction-challenged.”

Comment by Rambler Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 9:42 pm
Gov Dem: Hynes
Gov GOP: McKenna, by less than 1%

Senate: Alexi, Kirk

Lt. Gov: Cohen, Murphy

Cook Pres: Preckwinkle by a large margin

Comment by UI Chancellor Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 10:11 pm
Hynes and brady (Gov)
Cohen and murphy (Lt Gov)
Hoffman and Kirk (Sen)
Oberman and Rutherford (treas)
Miller and Topinka (comp)
Shimkus by a 85-15 margin in CD 19

Comment by illinois democrat Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 10:54 pm
Surprised there aren’t more predictions for Plummer. Murphy’s the favorite, but I don’t think it’s a done deal.

Comment by T.J. Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 11:03 pm
Wow. If this election was just a week ago, it was probably completely different. Now, it is close, and down to which candidate turns out their voters.

Senate: Alexi holds on barely (then will get gutted by the media in the fall). Kirk wins easily.
Gov: I think Quinn wins a close one- less than two point victory. Last week, Hynes peaked, I think. I think Dillard also wins by a point or two- and I think if the election was last week, it would be different. Had Ryan had any money, or guts to raise and spend the money, he would have held. I also think if it were next week, McKenna would probably pull ahead. Very close. But, I think the Thompson/ Edgar “old guys” win this for Dillard at the end.
Lt Gov- Murphy probably holds on…if it were next week, plummer wins. On the Democratic side, it won’t stun me if Link wins…just based on simple name ID.

Comment by Roy Slade Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 11:04 pm
So everyone here is saying the tea partiers are a big zero? They will have nothing to do with the outcome in the GOP primary?

We will see! To me you guys are whistling past the graveyard literally!!!

Comment by votecounter Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 11:54 pm
===So everyone here is saying the tea partiers are a big zero?===

Who said that?

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 12:45 am
===So everyone here is saying the tea partiers are a big zero?===

Who said that? –

A tea partier. They thrive on anger and perceived sleights.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 9:09 am