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* I mostly agree with Politico…

By midday, a look at precincts in Springfield and Champaign might prove instructive for Giannoulias and Hynes. If turnout is steady and strong south of Peoria, it’s most likely a soothing sign for the two, because both are more familiar to downstate voters.

A Hynes aide said recent polling has shown the comptroller surging into the lead over the governor in rural areas, but the aide cautions that “it has to translate into actual votes cast.”

Hoffman lacks strong name identification outside Chicago, and a potentially damaging story about Giannoulias’s role in his family’s bank has been bumped from leading the evening newscasts in favor of the racially charged gubernatorial primary. On the flip side, a big turnout on the North Shore and Lakefront would be beneficial to Hoffman.

The timing of this election makes enthusiasm even more difficult to measure.

“With how early the election is, it’s very difficult to gauge who’s going to vote and whether it’s going to line up with traditional votes,” said Jerry Morrison, political director of the Illinois Service Employees International Union.

* Not so sure of this yet, though. From CQ Politics…

Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, said he thought the undecided voters would break for the front-runners, Giannoulias and Kirk, because those are the more familiar names in the race.

Kirk, yes. Alexi? We’ll see.

* We already kinda know this. From the National Journal…

If Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes beats Gov. Pat Quinn in today’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, the political wires will once again be buzzing about the anti-incumbent and anti-establishment mood out there. […]

The mood is very anti-Washington and very anti-status quo. If you are a sitting governor, senator or House member, you already know this. That said, simplifying this as an anti-government backlash misses the point. It’s about competence. When voters are hurting they really don’t care to hear excuses from those who are in charge. They want results. And if you are someone who can sell that — whether you are a longtime legislator or a first-time candidate — you can get the ear of voters.

* Cillizza sticks with the anti-incumbent theme…

Looking for an overarching theme in the voting? How about the latest test of just how anti-incumbent/anti-establishment the voters are feeling. Gov. Pat Quinn is in serious trouble and, while his challenger — state Comptroller Dan Hynes — isn’t exactly an outsider, the defeat of a sitting governor in a primary race is a rarity. (The last governor to lose in a primary? Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski in 2006; he lost to a little known mayor named Sarah Palin.) The insider/outsider dynamic is even more clearly at work in the Democratic Senate primary where state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has lined up the support of much of the party establishment but has seen former Chicago inspector general David Hoffman making up ground with a law and order, outsider appeal — think Elliot Ness. In one ad, Hoffman paints Giannoulias as an insider’s insider — lumping the treasurer in with disgraced former governor Rod Blagojevich and real estate developer Tony Rezko while touting himself as the only one who can bring real change to the state’s politics. Wins by Hynes and Hoffman today would rightly be interpreted as voters in Illinois sending the same message that the voters of Massachusetts did last month when Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R) scored an upset victory in the heavily Democratic Bay State.

The same message as Massachusetts? I’m not sure of that. We’ve had some pretty specific issues here that they didn’t have there.

* Most impenetrable lede of the day goes to the Washington Post…

Here at Manny’s legendary deli, where expansive pols have for decades stormed across the linoleum floor appealing for votes from the well-fed, Dan Hynes does not suit up as much of a dragon slayer.

Um, it’s supposed to be a newspaper report, not a bad novel.

* Worst column of the day goes to the New York Times’ Gail Collins. I don’t even want to excerpt it, it’s that bad.

* MSNBC…

Here’s one final observation about Illinois: The National Republican Senatorial Committee has to feel very fortunate about the timing of today’s primaries in the state. Why? Because had the primaries been next month (as had been normal pre-’08), we’re guessing that front-runner Giannoulias — who has political baggage — might no longer be the front-runner, especially if the story about his family’s bank continued to play for several more days. Make no mistake, the NRSC feels that Kirk would have an easier time in a general election against Giannoulias than, say, Hoffman. We’re also guessing that if the primary took place a month from now, Kirk — who voted for cap-and-trade and supports abortion rights — would be facing a stronger Tea Party challenge that he currently is. However, as we said above, it’s worth watching how close Hughes might get to Kirk tonight. This INCREDIBLY early primary (six weeks earlier than what WAS normal for Illinois) meant the campaign season didn’t kick off until after New Year’s, leaving underdog challengers just three weeks to gain traction.

* TPM looks at the tea party angle…

The meme since the NY-23 kerfuffle has been that Republicans will face contested primaries in dozens of their races, and an emboldened tea party movement will give establishment candidates the boot and potentially hand easy wins to the Democrats.

The evidence had been adding up - with tea party candidates popping up in Pennsylvania and Texas and conservative groups targeting moderate Republicans in California and Florida.

But Kirk holds a steady lead in our TPMPolltracker average over two tea party-backed challengers Patrick Hughes and Judge Don Lowery despite all those efforts. Republicans in Washington expect him to emerge the nominee and shake off the tea party fears for the GOP nationwide.

“This blows a hole in that whole narrative,” said Brian Walsh, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee.

* Ben Smith of Politico tries to shoehorn his “outsider” theory into our primary…

The Illinois primaries today are set to test a thesis I’ve been thinking about, and on which I’d be interested in readers’ input: This wave of populist revulsion at the establishment, almost by definition, is far harder to bring to bear in primaries. […]

If Giannoulias, Kirk, and, say, McKenna win today (the insider-outsider dynamic is a bit muddied in the Democratic governor’s primary), it’ll suggest that partisan primaries maintain a degree of insulation from the free-floating anger — which may not actually be good for the parties’ general election candidates. And if they’re upset, it’ll suggest the reverse.

Except, McKenna is running as an outsider and Kirk is a shoe-in.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:13 am

Comments

Don’t see how MSNBC thinks that Gianoulias is an easier opponent for Kirk than Hoffman? Yes Gianoulias’has the baggage from him family’s banking business, but he also has statewide name recognition and appeal…Hoffman on the other hand would have a huge fight to even gain name recognition downstate…while Kirk would be solidifying that vote and digging into the independent votes in the collar counties.

Comment by A.B, Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:24 am
I am a kirk supporter, but there’s not a whole lot in common between this and scott brown. The congressman has spent his entire career in washington, he’s been there longer than pelosi (elected in 1988), almost as long as durbin, and longer than boehner. Brown probably doesn’t know d.c. is divided into quadrants and knows more about lobster rolls in plymouth county than he does about d.c.

I also think the piece John Feehrey wrote in the Hill was total drivel and intellectually dishonest. One former hastert aide that helped destroy the majority writing a puff piece about his former bosses kid (with no record of personal accomplishment or ideas) as the future of the party. If this is the new direction of the state gop, democrats are in for a long ride in power and if I was in the western burbs even as a republican I would consider supporting foster.

Comment by shore Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:25 am
Just read the Gail Collins thing…. I think I died a little bit inside…

Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:26 am
I bounced out and read Gail Collins’ column. I have to agree it’s pretty bad. She obviously doesn’t know nearly as much about Illinois politics as she thinks she does. There are, however, some pretty funny blurbs in there.

Comment by Springfield Sceptic Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:27 am
The anti incumbency wave, particularly in state elections, isn’t about competence/incompetence it’s about finances and the economy. In a horrible economy like the one we have now, demand for social services goes up at the same time that the economically sensitive govt revenues decline and the result is that the incumbent has to pass really unpopular budgets while the challenger can go negative and claim to be able to fix everything with their magic beans solution. Even a really competent incumbent is subject to the same pressure and the same no-win situation.

Comment by Scooby Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:29 am
I kinda liked Gail Collins’ column. It summed up the surreal nature of Illinois politics without being preachy or wonkish. Her comment about Hoffman’s former job made me chuckle out loud, and that’s rare.

What a Tuesday night — the Wisconsin basketball Badgers take on Michigan State, the final season of Lost starts, and the election results flood the local channels. My cup runneth over.

Comment by Lefty Lefty Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:31 am
A.B., but let’s be honest…Alexi G.’s record as state treasurer is pretty flimsy in terms of actual accomplishments. Also the fact is that this his first-ever public office, and he’s been MIA for a year campaigning for a higher office.
It’s kinda sad when one stops to think about it: could he not have finished his job as treasurer before jumping up to seek something else? when looked at that way, that doesn’t bode well fior him. Kirk has been a steady-handed, focused and diligent federal legislator. he’s also right to seek a promotion, whereas Alexi G is not.

there’s much to attack alexi g. on and the bank issue is just the cherry on top.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:32 am
There are, however, some pretty funny blurbs in there.
========

Obviously disappointed that I don’t have the Brown Cosmo issue, I’d buy the Kirk issue if one were ever published. For historical purposes, of course.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:33 am
The NRSC is retweeting Mark Kirk’s campaign tweets already.

Comment by Brennan Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:33 am
I live in one small central Illinois city and work in another. In neither are there any signs of Hoffman’s presence, whether yard signs, workers, etc. Alexi, on the other hand, has stuff around.

Comment by RFK fan Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:34 am
Collins’ column is a good reminder of what Illinois politics looks like to the rest of the nation . . .

Comment by Central_IL_farm_boy Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:36 am
now, how was i not signed in?
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:32 am: = me

p.s.,

i think if illinoisans were asked to grade alexi g. as treasurer he would get either a D or I for incomplete. Since he decided that he wanted the senate seat, he really hasn’t been serving the people of illinois. so his time on the job is a mitigates against him because he’s really only been a 3 year first-term treasurer, who again has little to show for it.

Comment by Will County Woman Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:37 am
Who today runs as an _insider_? There may be varying degrees of “outsiderness”, but if the meme is insider vs. outsider, in terms of how the candidates _run_ and present themselves, I am hard pressed to ID who the “insider” campaigns are. I’m sure there are a handful out there. Nominations?

Comment by ZC Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:39 am
This is why I wonder what the real story is in NY, MA, and every other state that is declared the new bellwether after an election that puzzles the national pundits. (Which seems to be pretty much every election.)

What is especially disturbing is when someone wants to shift national policy based on the results of a local election.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:40 am
@ WAPO “It was a dark and stormy election night…”

@ NYT What a grand-daddy mess of a column thing. Compared with Gail Collins, Rich Miller is the Algonquin Hotel in the age of the Round Table.

Comment by 10th Indy Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:42 am
Hynes is better known than Quinn downstate? I doubt it. Quinn’s been around a long time.

The voting thread is closed, but I’d like to take this belated opportunity to thank Sen. Harmon for helping me make up my mind on some races.

The obnoxious eyesore display of two dozen signs for your candidates on school property at my polling place did the trick. Some of the signs were just shoved into bushes — not very Oak Parky, if you know what I mean.

At least I knew which judges to vote against. Hope your crew is planning on cleaning up the mess.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:43 am
Anonymous - You maybe right, I am a huge Kirk supporter and I am just thinking through who is the better opponent for him to beat. Just seemed that when Alexi G. has the name rec downstate, that allows him to battle head to head with Kirk for the independent vote, but Hoffman would still be solidifying his base while Kirk was gathering votes.

Comment by A.B, Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:43 am
Kirk is from downstate. I think Hoffman gives the Democrats a better shot at winning, but I’d rather run against Alexi.

Comment by Brennan Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:46 am
Brennan –

What part of the north shore is downstate? Please….start with the facts.

Comment by Bardo2 Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:50 am
Gail Collins’ column is a good reminder of how clueless national press can be about state issues & politics. Makes you want to take the Mass. hysteria w/ a grain of salt…

Comment by Brooke Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:52 am
A.B i am a Kirk supporter too. i would love for Alexi G to win.

hoffman poses some challenges to kirk, but kirk being clean and hard-working destroys hoffman’s outsider fighting corruption platform. hoffman would then be forced to run solely on the issues. smart and capable guy that hoffman, but mark kirk is a moderate republican who can and will appeal to broad cross sections in this blue state. kirk federal experience is already one of his best assets, but so too is the fact that he has represented and served democrats. so democrats state-wide really have nothing to fear with him. he’s proven that he can and will represent the electorate’s interests before his own.

Comment by Will County Woman Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:55 am
to bardo2 Kirk was born in carlinville. This is little discussed.

collins spoke in evanston 2 weeks ago. Apparently she had a coffee with a woman, went on the internet and decided she was mrs.rich miller.

Comment by shore Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:58 am
Bardo2, it’s on his web page: “Kirk was born in Champaign and grew up in Chatham, Downers Grove and Kenilworth.”

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 10:59 am
I liked the Collins piece. Not for the politics but for the laughs. Though she is right about the inherent nepotism of the place (Madigan, Hastert, Lipinski, Stroger…) and the fact that no one wants to talk pension debt.

Comment by cermak_rd Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 11:03 am
Somebody, some time, must have told Gail Collins that she was funny. I think they were just being nice, but she took them seriously.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 11:04 am
Does anyone know if Gail Collins works for the real NYTimes or the Trib refugees using Jim Thompson law office as their newsroom? Either way her writing is gibberish Maybe the NYTimes could hire Bradley Tusk to interpet IL for them/.

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 11:07 am
I thought Kirk was actually born in Champaign and went to college in Carlinville (Blackburn).

Either way, in my opinion it’s quite a stretch for the guy from Kenilworth to claim to be a “downstater”. In fairness, I haven’t heard him make that claim. Just a blog poster or two.

It’s off topic I guess, Kirk should KILL Hughes today. Any way Hughes breaks 20???

Comment by Bardo2 Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 11:08 am
she actually works for the new york times and used to cover state wide stuff for them. she’s an actual new york new yorker.

Comment by shore Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 11:39 am
We don’t know who is going to win.

The only one we think will probably win is Kirk.

Everything else is an unknown right now.

These guys can start their interpretations after we know who wins. The narratives depend entirely on who ends up winning. All this blathering about interpretations right now is a silly waste of time. These “national” journalists are displaying why people are no longer interested in what they say.

You don’t interpret what hasn’t happened yet!

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 11:40 am
I love it when the national media types circle the wagons in Illinois and try to dissect our elections. We are our own “animals” and our state is much different than others in our politics and voter trends. Gail Collins’ column was just weird. WaPo’s column ended more strongly than it began. CQ Politics should stick to reporting rather than attempting to predict outcomes. And MSNBC seems to forget that a strong TEA Party candidate would have had 6 months from the time of Mark Kirk’s announcement to put together a respectable campaign. Instead, no one emerged during that time.

Given what I just typed, I don’t really know how much of the “outsider” trend plays in our state. David Hoffman is about the only “outsider” running for a major statewide office. Scott Brown wasn’t really an “outsider”, either, but apparently that term is too sexy to leave out of an article or op-ed about national politics.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 11:48 am
Bardo2, I bet Hughes will break 20% because he’s the only other candidate to have somewhat of a presence in the media and the “rubber chicken” circuit. He does have some supporters and some field organization/TEA Party support. I don’t see Lowery or Arrington breaking 5%.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 11:51 am
Alexi has better name ID and more access to cash (just not at his bank) but he’ll also be a lot easier for the NRSC to hit in ads that I would hope would begin downstate sometime in early April.
And since someone said it earlier, go Badgers!

Comment by Bakersfield Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 11:57 am
I think what we are reading and watching is how electoral news is spun. Shout the loudest. Get a story out there first. Worry about the facts later.

What seems to be happening is that our politicians and political opinion makers don’t care about any facts. They just want to make their points, argue over their perceived opponents, and hope their stories and spin win.

That is how news is being covered today too. An event begins, and if it is newsworthy, it is being Twittered by eyewitnesses, and those who feel they have a need to play along. Damn the facts. Damn the entire story. Just start spouting out what it is you think is happening, and see if you can be some kind of winner regarding the news event.

So in today’s world, it seems few are interested in getting all the facts, or reporting on an event in it’s entirety anymore. Supposed journalists feel a need to start their jobs without any orientation besides their personal biases, or run the risk of being trumped by someone else.

A good example has been the ACORN story. Traditional news and professional journalists ignored the story for days and days. They got totally trumped by a silly looking kid dressed like Huggy Bear in the political story of the year. A guy who they felt wasn’t qualified to write a want ad for an old Volvo was making news history. This made them envious, and angry.

So, now that this same kid gets caught up in a non-newsworthy stunt, he makes the front page of the NYT. The professionals who got miffed at him, now are getting back at him in order to regain some of the credibility they bought in journalism school.

This is the situation currently regarding news. As a consumer, I have to fend for myself and utterly ignor traditional mass media. I have to find my own primary sources for reliable facts. I have to research who within the Industry demonstrates enough respect for the facts, and muffles their biases in order to help me understand the meaning of a news event.

Rich Miller is one the few guys I trust because he’s been honest with me, and he’s been honest enough to give it to us without a lot of nonsense.

Thanks Rich for all you do. It is on these days that really depend upon Capitol Fax.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 12:02 pm
if someone like Mckenna or Adam A is chosen, Mark Kirk has to keep his distance from them. Mark Kirk is the actual headliner on the repub ticket in the fall. no doubt many will try to hitch a ride with him. and that is exactly why the repubs need to just pick dillard today because like mark kirk he can appeal to non-republicans, and win in november.

i just don’t understand why the so many republicans don’t get that this state can’t go from blue to red overnight. the transition toward purple and ultimately red has to be done incrementally and candidates like mark kirk and kirk dillard today are the GOPs only hope in terms of getting the transition started.

Comment by Will County Woman Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 12:06 pm
Alexi would get absolutely hammered by Kirk if he wins the primary. A (perceived) corrupt insider who has accomplished little other than losing millions of taxpayer dollars at his past two jobs? The Kirk campaign would have an absolute field day!

Hoffman, on the other hand, has a distinguished career fighting corruption, and comes of as an outsider full of integrity. The Kirk campaign would have to scramble to find anything to attack him with, and even then it would be hard to make any attack stick.

Unfortunately, it looks like the Democrats really haven’t realized this–not until the last couple weeks anyway, and by then it was probably too late. I’m disappointed but I can’t say I’m too surprised–it seems like the Dems always try their best to lose power.

Hopefully they prove me wrong and Hoffman takes the win.

Comment by dark horse Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 12:08 pm
Politico says that even though polling shows Hynes leading Quinn among African Americans, that a high AA turnout favors Quinn. Hm.
Plus, I agree with wordslinger regarding downstaters knowing Hynes more than Quinn.
I thought the Politico story was stretching.

Comment by winco Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 12:10 pm
I thought Gail Collins’ column was good and on target. All the things she poked fun at are real things and, (if you are not from Illinois, I guess) pretty funny.

Maybe you have to be not in Springfield to appreciate the humor.

Comment by jake Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 12:25 pm
“It’s supposed to be a newspaper report, not a bad novel.”

Well, at least the story didn’t begin “It was a dark and stormy night outside Manny’s legendary deli….”

Comment by Secret Square Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 12:33 pm
Wordslinger summed it up well about Collins. I usually avoid her like the plague, and wish I had this time as well.

Comment by Montrose Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 12:40 pm
Will County Woman — Since you admit to being a Kirk supporter, I can see why you would prefer Alexi to win. He has so much juicy baggage to attack, which would result in a win for Kirk. But I would like to point out that Kirk is not a moderate, as you stated. The Democrats have been tracking Kirk’s voting record since he has been in Congress, and they have found that he has voted about 90% of the time for the right and ultra-right Republican agenda. In fact, Kirk has recently stated that he has voted 100% Republican at one of his fundraisers. So, Kirk has not represented the Democrats in his own 10th District. He has lived like a recluse in a vacuum, doing what’s best for Kirk, not for his constituents. You can be sure that Kirk’s record will become an open book. My vote is for David Hoffman who has an incorruptible record as Inspector General for the City of Chicago, and will serve all the people of Illinois very well as our next Senator.

Comment by georger Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 12:42 pm
the Collins column was just fine. the headline alone should be enough to worry us. think about the possibility of a ticket with Hynes, Madigan, Oberman. for those who complain about the Daley dynasty, that’s the least of our problems here.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 12:43 pm
gregor, nice try my friend. but anyway you slice it the dems have a weak field aginst mark kirk. sure, hoffman is probably the strongest of the three on the dem side, but he’s definitely beatable by mark kirk.

whereas hoffman’s “clean hands political novice” shtick played well against Alexi G. it will be a liablity for him against kirk. That is assuming Hoffman wins tonight.

Comment by Will County Woman Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 12:56 pm
VanillaMan @ 12:02

—–This is the situation currently regarding news. As a consumer, I have to fend for myself and utterly ignor traditional mass media. I have to find my own primary sources for reliable facts. I have to research who within the Industry demonstrates enough respect for the facts, and muffles their biases in order to help me understand the meaning of a news event.

Rich Miller is one the few guys I trust because he’s been honest with me, and he’s been honest enough to give it to us without a lot of nonsense.

Thanks Rich for all you do. It is on these days that really depend upon Capitol Fax. —-

My thoughts EXACTLY! I seem to always be leery of what any “talking head” spouts. I can let my guard down here, and feel safe knowing that what is said here is, for the most part, on target.

Thanks again Rich.

Comment by neo state worker Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 1:52 pm
Shoo-in, like shoo-fly pie. Shoe-in makes no sense.

Comment by T.J. Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 3:48 pm
Gail Collins’ is always the worst column of the day–except when MoDo’s off her meds. But then MoDo’s fun when she’s her worst. Oh, jinkies, there’s also Krugman who’s blown his Nobel credibility…

Comment by Peggy SO-IL Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 7:49 pm