Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Question of the day

Posted in:

Illinois

* Why do you think some of your primary predictions didn’t match up with reality yesterday? Be honest, please.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 7:29 am

Comments

Perhaps the anti-incumbancy wave wasn’t as strong as I expected.

Comment by Josh Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 7:46 am
I didn’t see Brady coming. I followed the conventional wisdom that he didn’t have enough money for exposure in the Chicago market. Dillard, Ryan and McKenna really pounded each other up here, so Brady’s 154,646 votes might be enough to win the GOP primary for gov (unbelievable).

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:05 am
I really didn’t think Todd would be ousted by so much. I guess I just assumed he had a base of support somewhere and figured with 4 candidates he would still be there to kick around.

Comment by cermak_rd Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:10 am
Ungodly low turn-out.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:13 am
I didn’t see Brady coming either. Was weather a factor in turnout downstate? Can candidates ignore the rest of the state anymore? Can a candidate ignore Chicagoland and expect to be successful?

Comment by tubbfan Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:14 am
I take my share of the blame for not explaining it more clearly to the American people. And I know that with all the lobbying and horse-trading, this process left most Americans wondering what’s in it for them.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:16 am
The doesn’t care about downstate and even tried to shrink it in this election. Brady tried to tell everyone that the polls were only being conducted in Chicago and the collar counties discounting all of downstate.

We had people running polls not listing Brady as a candidate. How can you run a poll in Southern Illinois and not list the only downstate candidate? They may have wagged the dog. If Brady had gotten a fair shake in the media with accurate polling, then he may have done even better.

I wonder if there should be rules on the use of polling date. Either disclose it is an advertisement, or require some standards. Nothing big, but you should have to at least list all the candidates in a poll before you can claim it is an accurate poll.

I hate to say it, but even Rich missed this. I couldn’t find anywhere that Brady was a viable option. Time to refocus on all of the State, not just the top 7 counties.

Comment by the Patriot Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:17 am
Quinn received enough machine help to see him through.

The transformation of Pat Quinn is complete.

With all of the machine folks surrounding him onstage, I was surprised that Emperor Palpatine didn’t step out of the shadows to join them.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:19 am
I think low turnout was a huge issue. However, it was roughly the same turnout as 2006, at least in Sangamon County. I think a lot of favored candidates did not put in the time downstate. If you look at is from the top down on both sides, downstate decided the election.

Comment by UISer Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:23 am
Despite the recent polls, I really didn’t think many Republicans would vote for McKenna. He did better than I thought he would.

Comment by Fan of the Game Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:27 am
Tubbfan makes a great point. While I haven’t seen the by county numbers from downstate, it appears that the governor, who was endorsed by the dem county chairmans assn, lost the downstate counties that a dem needs to win. If this is true, I believe that the relevance of downstate is diminished significantly.

As for the results, we all knew the dem primary was going to be close, but low turnout probably made it this close. It also looks like the blacklash to the harold washington ad was real, as the governor won 60% of the AA vote. This ad probably lost the election for hynes.

As for the republican side, dupage repubs beat each other up and brady snuck in.

Hey Illinois…you’re welcome.

Comment by anon Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:31 am
Not fully understanding the dynamics of the Republican right in this state. I overestimated the teabag faction and underestimated traditional Hyde conservatism. And I was honestly a bit surprised that Dillard did not swat McKenna aside more effectively.

Once you consider all those variables, then yes, a situation in which the Republicans divide themselves up equally and then draw lots for winner does become plausible.

Comment by Angry Chicagoan Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:38 am
Rich made a comment about Brady and “we” missing Brady coming and boy was he right. Looking back, with Dillard, Ryan, and McKenna, if we would have just factored in Brady as the only “Downstate” guy and gave Brady credit for 4 years of cultivating EVERY corner of downstate as he had, (to his credit!) I know I would have thought about him more, but I know I blew that one…

Hoffman ran out of time, and forgot the Blago model of winning “something” downstate. Hoffman was not known outside the collars and Jackson cut into his Cook/collar numbers ….

Plummer won, tip your hat, but winning doesn’t mean you are qualified. Any other year his win would just be a blip, but Quinn taking over from LG should and will “scare” some out there. Cohen winning without being vetted against MJM’s guy still might give Veruca Salt his chance at a “title”, and with less of the stink eye against a Turner had he won the primary.

Murphy hung his hat with McKenna because of the $$$, but in the end, did it help or hurt? Both the McKenna people and the Murphy people can make a case that it hurt, or even helped….

Hastert broke a Cardinal Rule of ignoring his base, if he had one. Hastert only won all the Kendal pcts by 300 total votes in the 76 pcts. That ain’t gonna cut it, 4 vote plurality in your home county? “The kid ain’t the Old Man” was the feel in Oswego.

The only one I was close to being spot on was Preckwinkle, but I think with a week out, most thought she would win, but by how much was the real question. She is or is near that 50% I felt at the end, because she just was better, end of sentence, period, new paragraph. She was surging, she was a better candidate, and the other candidates were just not that great. That mix made her surge so potent. A model race run, kudos to her crew. Well done!

Finally, the Hynes-Quinn race. The city of Chicago was Hynes’ Waterloo. Quinn just ran better in the city than I had thought and his numbers just kept him afloat, and kept him afloat, and finally dragged him across at the end. Dan will be back, but … if he drags this out, how much will he be welcomed back and how wide will those arms be opened? Hopefully, Dan will concede and prepare to come back. Normally, I would suggest he try to contact Obama about a job in DC …but …

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:38 am
I think all the predictions were based on hope instead of analysis.

Other contributing factors:

Very low turn out
Very many candidates
Huge amounts of money spent in the last week
Mostly negative campaigns

Comment by More misery for Illinois Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:39 am
I thought Jim Madigan would do better than what he did. Steans rode the power of incumbency and massive cash advantage, plus her endorsements.

Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:43 am
anon - that 60% number doesn’t answer if Harold ad backfired. 1) what was Hynes polling in that community before the ad? 2) did ad cause potential AA Quinn supporters not to turn out? 3) did ad help enough in other communities to overcome any negative effect in AA community? Does anyone have detailed polling or analysis?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:47 am
The low turnout is disappointing. Would have thought that people were upset enough to show up and pull the lever. The early primary may have something to do with that or the crowded field in the GOP gov primary. Still…

Comment by dupage dan Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:51 am
Brady’s last TV commercial over the weekend, “Only Downstate candidate for Governor” resonated with Downstate GOP. Combine that with Dillard/McKenna/Ryan splitting Upstate GOP vote.

Comment by Peoria Joe Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:55 am
I underestimated Brady because I always thought of Brady as a fringe loser.

Still do.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:57 am
Most of the major GOPers were from the same neighborhood. I am glad, because I was pulling for Brady…if he would only wear socks!

My biggest surprise is that Hynes is losing. He was going against Blago’s running mate who botched an early prison release program. It was silly, because it was two Irish guys trying to show they are best for AfAms. Black Irish is what I called it (I know it is really a hair thing)

Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:58 am
It seems to me that track record for polls throughout this decade have been horrendous. I don’t know reason is for this but when you look at some of the presidential elections over the past 10 years and how they were predicted against the final results; something is amiss. Apparently there is a demographic often gets overlooked. I wonder how much polling was done downstate as opposed to the northern part of the state. And maybe a lot of the individuals that were polled didn’t bother to vote yesterday.

Comment by I'mTellingYou Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:02 am
Brady for GOP Governor

Up North we were bombarded by Dillard and McKenna ads, on the radio, local news on TV. We never gave Brady any thought since the constant ads and news on McKenna and Dillard. I don’t remember seeing or hearing any ads on Brady. That was a surprise.

Comment by Third Generation Chicago Native Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:04 am
I made no prediction on this statistic, but I am surprised that there were at least 100,000 more Democratic votes cast than Republican votes in each statewide race. Even though this is “blue” state, I would have thought that the Republican voters would have been far more energized to get out than they seem to have been.

Comment by Captain Flume Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:08 am
Would someone comment on how Jesus Garcia beat Moreno for 7th district Cook commissioner, and how Ricardo Munoz beat Tony Munoz for 4th district state committeeman, and how Lozano came close to beating Burke for 23rd district state rep. When I looked at the A-1 reports, these guys were bringing in almost no money. I think these races were the upsets of the day (anyway, 2 of them). How did they do it?

Comment by Oakparker Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:09 am
I saw Edgar standing behind Mark Kirk when Kirk made his “acceptance” speech last night. Edgar also endorsed Beth Colson and Kirk Dillard. Will he be there for the concession speeches?

Comment by really? Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:12 am
does anyone have a link to the primary predictions thread? I don’t have time right now to search, but I’d like to comment on my actual predictions…

Comment by jerry 101 Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:15 am
Oak Parker

Moreno stood with and supported Todd Stroger way too often. It was part of the getting rid of the Stroger camp.

Comment by Third Generation Chicago Native Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:26 am
I didn’t make picks for Lt. Gov. because the pool was too crowded. I should have done the same for Repub. Gov. With that many candidates, evenly matched with strong support in different parts of the state, calling it was a fools errand.

I almost picked Cohen because of all the mailers I was getting, the lack of anything from anyone else, and the low name recognition across the field.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:37 am
Some of the comments about Brady not being heard from in the collar counties illustrates the lack of analysis by even the savey politicos. Brady made a strategic decision to let them split the vote and note waste money while he developed a grass roots campaign.

2nd-Brady did not sneak in. He has been running this campaign for 5 years. Long before any of these Johnny come latelys decided they could maybe grab 20% in a 7 man race and capitalize on the Blago fiasco.

If Brady pulls this out it will be a defining race in Illinois politics. Can an underfuned grass roots campaign still pull one out against the Machine?

Comment by the Patriot Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:43 am
I think weather had a lot to do with it. I also think that Dems, and anyone else who wants to see the fiscal mess straightened out, didn’t, and still aren’t, thinking this all the way to the end. The uppermost thing in their mind when they voted should not have been the ads that candidates put forth; it should have been who can win in the fall? But it wasn’t, they were swayed by empty promises and once again went to the polls uninformed and not thinking.

Last night Quinn’s people scoffed at Brady’s possible win and seemed happy to meet him over other candidates, I think they are underestimating the anybody but Quinn movement. Hynes would have been a much better opponent to whomever the Reps put forward. But once again the Dems shoot themselves in the foot and they will bring a knife to the gun fight in the fall.

Carol Marin brought up a point I did not hear anyone else talking about. She made the statement that Brady has been campaidning for the last four years and when you look back you realize she was right. Add to that the fact that Brady will do well downstate I think Quinn is toast.

My prediction was off because I placed too much faith in the voters. I thought they would realize that if he won the primary Quinn will do nothing about revenue increase before the election in the fall because he is more concerned about getting re-elected than fixing Illinois problems. This will mean more borrowing to get by, Blago 101, and the deficit increases more. Madigan will know that Quinn can’t win so he will not do anything about the deficit, he would rather save his members, and he will want to blame the Repubs for the tax increase he knows is necessary. So a Repub gets elected in the fall on the platform of no new taxes, and it will be two years at least before they finally get around to realizing they have to do something and revenues are increased. By this time Illinois will be ruined. All because some people believed the untruths Soy boy put forth about Hynes. Chuck Gowdy revealed last night that Quinn lied and knew he lied when he said that the head of the committee overseeing Burr Oak told Hynes that there was reselling of burial plots going on at Burr Oak in 2003. This lady has been on vacation and just got back and she revealed that she only told Hynes about the unearthed remains not the possible reselling of plots.

Comment by Irish Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:45 am
I predicted Brady would do better than expected, but I didn’t expect him to do THAT much better… guess I underestimated him a little bit too.

The downstate vote definitely can be decisive at the primary stage. Didn’t downstate votes put Blago past Vallas for the Dems in the 2002 primary?

Comment by Secret Square Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:48 am
I overestimated the impact of low tunrout for Adam. I forgot about the third candidate running in the primary against Hatcher

Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:49 am
Am in Brady’s district but he is too conservative for me-still don’t think that he can beat democrat-wasn’t surprised at local election results, but that must have carried throughout downstate. Hynes was a surprise, really though competence thing would carry more weight against Quinn.

Comment by Downstate Commissioner Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:49 am
Yes, and downstate was the key for Poshard in 1998 primary.

Turnout may have been ungodly low in Chicago but I don’t think it was low Downstate.

Comment by ZC Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:50 am
I went back and looked at my predictions…

I correctly picked that Giannoulias would win. I got that Lipinski and Davis would win, but thought the races would be closer.

I thought Hamos would beat Seals by a comfortable margin. I assumed some combination of Hamos having won elections and been a legislature combined with Hamos being Jewish would appeal to the Dems of IL-10 b/c they want to win.

I guess, more people saw in Hamos what I saw in Hamos. She was someone looking to get out of the General Assembly. There was something annoying about her. Her stands on Israel were so extreme it made it seemed like she either was faking being a progressive on other issues or she was faking being a hawk on Israel. She seemed to have no sense that she was talking about Israel in a way that made lots of people uncomfortable. She’s probably too old to start an effective career in Congress.

I gave Hynes a slight edge over Quinn and Turner an edge over Cohen.

The best thing about my Lt. Gov. prediction is that I ID’d Cohen as a top two candidate. The worst thing was that I saw Hendon as a minor candidate behind the pack. I didn’t fall into the trap that Roeser and Stewart did of predicting Terry Link. I saw link as about as likely to win as Boland and Castillo.

I had Raja more likely to win thanr Miller. I underestimated how effectively Miller communicated his ethnicity with Black voters. I also was more impressed with Raja on the stump.

While I predicted Kelly would beat Oberman, I underestimated Oberman’s performance. I’m not sure why Oberman did as well as he did. I’m open to suggestions. Bright Start? Adlai Stevenson? Political orgs that endorsed Kelly assuming she’d win, so they didn’t push her hard compared to their targeted races?

Prez of Cook County Board I nailed.

My two dark horse races were state rep races 9th (Turner) and 40th (Mell). Mell won 66-34. Art Turner, Jr. barely came back from SIU, where he’s a law student, to campaign. He got 44% of the vote in a six-way race.

Generally, I expect the anger and dissatisfaction of voters to coalesce into some sort of political backlash. I expected voters to be more eager to vote out politicians. But the low turnout suggests politicians asking for change have not connected with the sour mood of the voters.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:51 am
Dillard ran a much weaker campaign than expected. Really thought he would do more than just talk about being on Edgar’s staff 16 or 17 years ago.

Comment by just sayin' Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:55 am
Turnout, turnout, turnout.

We knew it would be low, but this low? If any PoliSci grad students out there had a model to accurately predict which areas had higher turnout yesterday than others, I know a couple of candidates for governor who will pay them good money to work the fall campaign.

Actually, I know five candidates for governor willing to pony up that cash. Maybe we’ll whittle it down to two before baseball season starts.

Comment by Boone Logan Square Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:55 am
I think those who think the GOP candidates for governor beat themselves up are correct. Here in “downstate” Illinois…those Brady ads played well, “The only “downstate” candidate for govenor. Dillard and McKenna ads were practically non-existent. A Brady-Quinn matchup will be tough. Both candidates are comfortable campaigning “downstate” (geez what an arrogant term). It may well depend on whether the right wing extremists decide to take part in the election. Brady’s gonna have to walk a fine line. Or will voter dissatisfaction lead many to vote “Green?” Rich Whitney, if he plays his cards right, could be a big factor.

Comment by Deep South Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:02 am
Like everyone else, did not see Bill Brady coming (though in hindsight, it makes sense).

Logically, I knew that Cohen’s millions on TV should have propelled him to victory, but I still couldn’t wrap my head around the idea that he’d win (thanks, Rickey!).

Did not see Dold coming.

Before Justin Oberman spent any money, I thought Robin Kelly was a shoo-in. Then, when he went hard on TV, I thought he’d made a real race of it. She is considerably more qualified -he’s really just been shopping races- but with the ads, I was shocked at the thumping she gave him.

And I always thought Hultgren was a more compelling candidate.

Comment by JonShibleyFan Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:04 am
Mine did match up with reality. The only one I missed was Lt. Gov.

Comment by (618) Democrat Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:25 am
@ Anon 8:16

LOL. I do believe I’ve heard that excuse made somewhere else recently.

Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:32 am
Only real surprise for me was Brady. And Ryan coming in 4th.

I knew that Cohen could win with his money - what a shame Art didnt tell the world about that arrest.

Coulson just looked like a loser from her cable ad and Dold signage dominated. As a Hamos supporter, we always knew she was climbing uphill. Bummed by her loss but not surprised.

Comment by siriusly Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:34 am
I could care less about my predictions. What I am totally shocked about is the low turnout at a time when our budget deficit is bigger than ever and when nothing positive seems to happen in Springfield. Do voters just wish upon a star that our ship will right itself without their input? Yesterday was a golden chance for the everyday voter to make his or her voice known. Instead, turnout was low and Illinois again looks ridiculous for having the earliest primary in the country and an uninspired electorate.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:37 am
I would like to point out that picked Brady to win was wrong on my pick for Lt. Governor for the GOP side thought. I think that some people underestimated how well Bill was going to do downstate. A fair amount of money flowed into his campaign the last week that let him increase the number of media buys for his last commercial. Brady had a fair number of volunteers making calls to identify supporters and then calling them back to remind them to get out to vote. I think that human callers have more of an impact with people than robocallers.

Comment by RMW Stanford Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:40 am
Two Republican Governor thoughts come to mind:

If Proft and Andrezjewski’s votes were merged, they would have won the election. One wonders if either candidate could have carried the day if the other had stepped out and endorsed the other.

I do not understand why over 7300 voters wasted their votes on Smilin’ Bob Schillerstrom. Was it out of outrage, ignorance or blind loyalty. 7300 votes cast elsewhere could have tilted the election a different way.

Comment by Jake from Elwood Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:43 am
“I think these races were the upsets of the day (anyway, 2 of them). How did they do it?”

Only anglos are shallow enough to get persuaded by 30 second tv ads.

Mexicans talk. All word of mouth.

Comment by True Observer Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:45 am
I was shocked that Dold beat Coulson by a 9 point margin. I knew he was surging, but I thought that race would be a whole lot closer than it was.

On the Dem side, I was shocked that Hamos came so close to beating Seals. I think the difference in that race was only 1 percentage point. I was not impressed at all with the Hamos campaign and didn’t think all her TV buys would get her much. I guess I was wrong on that count.

Comment by 10th District Fan Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:48 am
Low turnout always benefits the campaigns with the best organization. The Democratic Machine is the best organization. Moving the primary to Feb. 2 was a godsend to Democrat candidates who might have lost if it had been held in better weather.

Comment by The Mad Hatter Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:49 am
It’s also interesting to note that Bill Brady, who played the role of foil - intentional or unintentional - to Jim Oberweis’ GOP bid in 2006, may very well have seen his own foil in Adam A. If Adam A. had not been in the race, could Brady have gotten 30%? We’ll never know.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:49 am
Turnout.

Re:10th District - I’m surprised (but not shocked) Dan Seals won, I think on name recognition, but really, not much difference in policy between them.

Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:52 am
Adam A. sure cleaned up in the Metro East St. Louis area.

Comment by Deep South Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:53 am
I don’t like the term downstate either. For one thing, as a former Central Illinoisan, we look down on Southern Illinoisans so lumping us with them is not desirable. Of course, I have little doubt the sentiment is returned by those in Southern IL. Plus the downstate term completely ignores Western IL which is its own region.

Comment by cermak_rd Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:56 am
ImTellingYou, not sure what you mean. The polls were pretty much dead on. The last poll for the Dems had it a dead heat, and the last poll for the GOP had McKenna and Dillard both around 20% with a big number of uncedideds. Given how the last week shaked out, and how everyone was beating up on each other in the GOP…except Brady, it’s not a surprise he picked up most of the undecideds.

Overall, going all the way back to my prediction in the beginning and last week, I’m still stunned how poor of a campaign Jim Ryan ran. I didn’t think he could do worse than 2002, but he proved me wrong.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:59 am
I really thought Hamos would win. That 10th CD is odd and it isn’t just a north shore district…it stretches to almost the far west edge of Cook County.

And I really thought Coulson would win. Who the heck is Dold? These are both very effective legislators and now they are planning a vacation!

Comment by Mongo Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 11:08 am
With Kelly and Miller winning, and the County Board president’s race helping to drive African American turnout, I’m guessing that tipped the race for Quinn by just enough to squeak by. I’ll be interested in seeing turnout by wards/twsps to see which voters actually voted yesterday.

As others have noted, low turnout was the big story. It’s as if all voters said, “we’re mad as hell, but we’re not going to do anything about it.”

Everybody knew Cohen was running a good campaign. Chairman Madigan wears the jacket for not preventing this disaster. I’m very disappointed that Madigan once again ignores the Party in favor of his House majority.

The session is going to be a continuation of the disaster for Democrats. Hang on to your hats campers, we’re in for a bumpy ride.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 11:13 am
If “downstate” is an arrogant term, what should we replace it with? Northern/Middle/Southern Illinois? Cubs/Sox/Cards Country? Not Chicago (So Don’t Blame Us)?

Comment by Secret Square Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 11:25 am
I always thought the guv’s Dem primary would be tough so I suppose my Hynes pick was wishful thinking. Won’t likely winner Quinn have to campaign at least in tandem with Scott Lee Cohen?
It’s going to be great!!.

I was so wrong picking Ryan. I just assumed that name recognition and admiration for personal tragedies would put him ahead in a split primary. The weather probably played a role. And he didn’t campaign very hard. Maybe conservatives are energized, leading to Brady. I’m now going to predict that Brady can’t possibly win the general. But humbly.

Comment by cassandra Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 11:28 am
Secret Square…how about Illinois and Chicago. I mean downstate seems to cover everything from Rockford to Cairo. Like everything outside Chicago and the collars is all the same…puh-leeze.

Comment by Deep South Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 12:08 pm
“Why do you think some of your primary predictions didn’t match up with reality yesterday? Be honest, please.”

I did not foresee the rise of Brady.

Why?

Because I was dead certain that the GOP wanted to win back the governors mansion in November and Bill “Alan Keyes-lite” Brady ain’t gonna get it done.

– MrJM
http://www.facebook.com/MisterJayEm

Comment by MrJM Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 12:14 pm
I was wrong on my pick for Lt. Gov. on the GOP side I think there could of been a few reason for Plumber’s victory over Murphy.

1. Ads, Plumber ran a lot of ads on TV while the only ones that I ever saw involving Murphy were McKenna ads where Murphy name was below McKenna names.

2. A lot of conservative Republican voters I talked to said that they liked Murphy at first but turned against him when he linked up to McKenna.

3. Downstate seems to of voted heavily in favor of downstate candidates and Brad Cole never got much traction.

Comment by RMW Stanford Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 12:18 pm
Deep South,

Illinois and Chicago doesn’t work either. The Cook County burbs aren’t exactly chump change when it comes to votes, in fact, I think we may be about even with the city in population.

Comment by cermak_rd Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 12:28 pm
February 2nd is just too early to be having an election. It worked out great for my publication, but not for the voters. Regular people didn’t even start paying any real attention until well into January. People are much more likely to stay home in the middle of winter. Daily Newspapers are less read, have less information and have less impact than ever. The so called independents rival and often top the regulars in the sleaze and cut throat department and a lot of people feel they are going to wind up with just another batch of legally corrupt public officials.

Comment by Avy Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 12:57 pm
Chicago and Dupage are not the center of the universe. The media(chgo centered) does not give the time of day to anyone else and does not even consider the people of the rest of this state. Those people were heard yesterday.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 1:12 pm
Anon’s comment: “Chicago and DuPage are not the center of the universe. The media(chgo centered) does not give the time of day to anyone else and does not even consider the people of the rest of this state ”

I have been checking the vote totals by county, for GOP Governor, from Politico.com map. Looks like once you get about 50-70 miles outside Chicago, Brady was the winner of large # of these counties.

Shows the effectiveness of his Downstate slogan strategy.

Comment by Peoria Joe Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 1:40 pm
Brady could beat Quinn in Nov. Brady has more on the ball than people imagine. He is personable and can connect with people.

Comment by jaded voter Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:22 pm
Stick to the question, please. And leave your bumper stick slogans out of this blog.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:23 pm
@ Responsa 10:32

You never let a good rationalization go to waste.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:26 pm
Voters decided not to turn out and vote for the “lesser of two evils”….instead they chose not to vote for evil…. period.

Comment by Anonymous One Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:46 pm
The average voter is waiting for the general to “vote them out”.

Comment by way way down here Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:10 pm
“Most of the major GOPers were from the same neighborhood. I am glad, because I was pulling for Brady…if he would only wear socks!”

Thank you for posting that. I thought I was the only one with that wish.

Comment by T.J. Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:54 pm