Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

A look at the numbers

Posted in:

Illinois

* Mark Brown has a very good column today about late-arriving absentee ballots and uncounted provisional ballots.

According to Brown, the Cook County Clerk received 213 mailed absentee ballots on Monday, DuPage got 5 and Lake got 2. Lake has a total of 302 GOP ballots yet to be counted (232 absentees and 70 provisionals), but not all those provisionals will make it to the final cut. Bill Brady did very poorly in Lake, getting just 5 percent of the vote. DuPage has 126 absentees not yet counted, about three-quarters of which are Republican, and 256 provisionals, but only a fraction of those will survive.

Cook County’s newly posted totals shaved 42 net votes off Brady’s lead, Brown writes. But there aren’t many GOP ballots left to count in Cook.

His conclusion…

While a recount is still a possibility in the Republican race, that would also seem unlikely if the Brady lead holds in the 400 range.

What was less apparent to me on election night than it is in the cold light of day is that even 400 votes is a significant margin in this era of technologically advanced voting equipment.

When I started covering elections, a victory margin of 5,000 votes in a statewide race was cause to seek a recount. Now, nobody is quite certain where the cutoff line is. Is it 500? Is it 200?

Nobody really knows.

* Meanwhile, the SJ-R takes a look at the numbers…

Geographically, much of Illinois was for Hynes. Hynes beat Quinn in 88 of Illinois’ 102 counties. Quinn won just 14 counties. Quinn won five others by fewer than 100 votes each – and three of those by fewer than 10 votes each.

They go on to dig into the actual number of Downstate counties won by each candidate - and that’s almost completely irrelevant. This isn’t like the US Senate, where tiny states get two Senators like the big states. Many of those Downstate counties have incredibly small numbers of voters. Better to look at regions than numbers.

Still, the overall Downstate results are very important when looking ahead to the general. Hynes’ message clearly worked Downstate. That gives us a good preview of what’s to come in the fall as more conservative voters weigh in.

This is also important…

Brady received only 5 percent support in Cook County.

And this…

Suburbs 6.5 percent [for Brady] 20.4 percent [for Dillard]

Brady’s totals in the all-important suburbs were just horrible. But that’s less to blame on his message than where he concentrated his message. He didn’t have the cash to compete in the Chicago media market.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 9:29 am

Comments

Important numbers there.
Sure, Brady didn’t have enough cash to run north of I-80, but it would have been a waste anyway with his conservative message.

Brady is a downstate candidate. He might as well run for governor of Kentucky.

Ambitious? Sure. But it doesn’t matter. Brady is locked out of the Mansion. He just doesn’t fit Illinois.

The GOP has got to be going nuts. They lost it.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 9:38 am
Brady’s vote totals in Cook County and the suburbs are low, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that this will be the case in the general. There is a big difference between Pat Quinn and the Republican candidates. Still, it shows that he needs to get the other candidates to actively support him as much as possible.

Comment by Pelon Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 9:42 am
Au contraire VanillaBoy. Bill Brady is exactly the candidate that Mr. Quinn should be most afraid of. His message to grow the economy with job growth instead of growing the state budget with more of my tax dollars is the winning message. That same-old same-old, “Well, I suppose we could cut a little as long as you give a lot” message is DOA in this economy.

Comment by N'ville Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 9:47 am
Brady certainly isn’t the best candidate to win votes among suburban independents, but he isn’t the worst either. Importantly, Republicans seem to be rallying to Brady. It seems that while he wasn’t the first choice of 80% of the GOP voters, he was a lot of people’s second choice.

If Brady is disciplined, listens to the solid team he is already assembling, and can bust his butt raising money, he can be very competitive. Suburban independents are fleeing state and national Democrats in a tidal wave. Brady, teamed with the moderate Kirk, can present a viable alternative.

Comment by Adam Smith Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 9:48 am
I would think absentee ballots are going to mirror the larger vote. Brady will fail in Chicagoland and clean up downstate.

Comment by downstate Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 9:49 am
Brady can emphasize economic issues in a general and do well in the suburbs and Cook Cty (whatever well is in Cook for the GOP). If unemployment is still hovering at 10 and 11% in Illinois any voting record on “social” issues important to a down state district won’t be an issue. Since they don’t know him, it’s not like he can’t tack left anyway.

It’s hilarious when someone criticizes a candidate for not doing well in “x” when your strategy says you weren’t going to play in “x.” Seen it before. The critic looks like the fool. Rich’s point is well taken. You don’t criticize Drew Brees for not taking off and running the ball more, do you?

Comment by Greg B. Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 9:52 am
Plugging in the latest numbers from Chicago’s and Cook County’s websites, Brady’s lead is down to 361 (from 406).

Comment by Jeff Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 9:52 am
Vm…

This election is going to be about jobs and the states messed up financial situation. Brady’s conservative stances on social issues are not going to be as big of a deal as they would be in a normal election…

Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 9:58 am
People are worried about bread and butter issues right now. If Brady stays on that message and makes it clear his personal views are just that, personal, and not part of an overall agenda I think voters will feel more comfortable with him. PQ has a track record - it stinks. People want to know there is a man with a plan for this horrific situation Illinois is in. PQ ain’t that man. It is up to Brady to bring that point home.

Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:00 am
N’Ville and Adam Smith have said what I could said in response to VanillaMan. But VM’s analysis would hold up if, as I anticipate, the Democrats spend millions and resort to their typical name-calling (”extremist”) and fear-mongering (on abortion, health care, education, etc, which Brady would be incapable of affecting to such a degree). But it is beginning to shape up into the kind of year where this low type of politics doesn’t sell like it used to. And the Mark Kirk-Brady ticket is going to have to spend substantial amounts in the major media markets to offset the same– which can be done. Remember, Peter Fitzgerald pulled it off; Brady has the stuff to do likewise.

Comment by Conservative Republican Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:03 am
What a shame that Brown dropped the ball on Scott Lee Cohen. As for his latest article, he seems to overlook the fact that are 102 counties in Illinois. Dillard does not necessarily have to pick up votes in Cook, Du Page and Lake counties exclusively. While I expect Brady to do well Downstate, it is foolish to expect that Dillard will be shut out there. This could be exceptionally close.

Comment by Honest Abe Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:07 am
City and suburbs will be a big problem for Brady. Since the election, I have heard real people talk about two things, and only two things. First, look at that crazy lite guv guy the Dems nominated, too crazy. Second, look at that downstate right winger the GOP nominated who is way out there on abortion, guns etc.

The Dems have begun to deal with the first story to come out of the primary. I’m not sure the GOP has something to repel the second story. The attempt to say that this election is only about the economy just can’t pass reasonable analysis. That is a big issue today, but we elect a governor to tackle all issues over a four year period. Will a suburban mom worried anout her kidas safety and security, vote for someone who is a backer of conceal, carry? IF we limited the governor’s power to one issue & one issue only, maybe the GOP argument would have some weight. On the plethora of issues confronting the state, the majority of voters are closer to Quinn on the majority of issues than they are to Brady. I’m not saying either is a profile of an average Illinois voter, but which one is closer. On that, it seems to me Brady loses 48/43 and 9% for Whitney.

Comment by Niles Township Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:08 am
–Sure, Brady didn’t have enough cash to run north of I-80, but it would have been a waste anyway with his conservative message.–

That’s just fundamentally wrong. There are way more conservatives up north, simply because there are more people.

In 2008, McCain’s biggest votes by county were (rounded):

Cook: 488,000 — that was a quarter of his vote

DuPage: 184,000

Will: 119,000

Lake: 85,000

Kane: 84,000

McHenry: 65,000

South of I-80, his biggest were:

Madison: 57,000

Sangamon and St. Clair, 47,000

So even in Bolshevik Cook County, there were nearly half a million voters willing to go for McCain over Obama. There were just a little more than 700,000 votes cast in the GOP primary.

Conservatives are crazy if they don’t campaign up here.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:08 am
Many people had concerns about Peter Fitzgerald and voted for him because of his claims at being a principled ethical man. He proved that in his term as Senator. Maybe we could entice him back to run against Durbin.

I don’t know enough about Brady at this point but will be finding out more in the weeks to come. He is the likely candidate unless Dillard pulls a large rabbit out of the shrinking hat.

Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:08 am
wordslinger is right. VM, think before you post, please. Thanks.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:11 am
Besides whatever Blago stench he may have on him from running with him in the past, could the reason Quinn did so poorly in comparison to Hynes downstate be that there’s so many more communities with prisons downstate so maybe the early release ads were more effective there? Just a thought.

Comment by Hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:12 am
I keep hearing about all this technology in elections but I live in Springfield and I used a fill in the circle ballot. I think a recount is warrent. we’re talking about 3 votes a county.

Comment by Ahoy Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:26 am
===but I live in Springfield and I used a fill in the circle ballot.===

True, but the electronic counter immediately checked for undervotes and overvotes. Times have changed.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:28 am
Rich, as to ws’ point, those general election R voters aren’t Rs in the normal sense we talk about here (look at the Cook County/Chicago R vote total in the primary), they are more center Is, and that is probably where the battle will be won or lost.

Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:28 am
I think Brady’s chances are extremely good. And when the other Republican primary candidates get fully behind him with their support, his chances get a lot better. There are a lot of Illinoisans out there that are fed up with both Illinois and Washington politics.

I think this is going to be a political anomaly year. It started in Virginia and New Jersey. It continued with Massachusetts. Now, there are even signs that the Republicans can take back the Senate in Washington; and maybe the House too. If that fire catches on for Kirk, Brady will go along for the ride. On the other hand, if Brady catches on fire Kirk might go along for the ride.

This isn’t a normal year and Brady is not a normal Republican candidate - at least not a normal Republican candidate as defined by the existing Illinois Republican Party.

In the Governor’s elections over the past 12 - 16 years, the anti-Brady comments on this blog would probably make a lot of sense.

But, not this year. The winds of change are blowing very strong. Brady is going to take back the Governor’s mansion and he’s going to do it with style.

Comment by Jechislo Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:40 am
I would like to see how where Brady is against Quinn in the next decent poll.

Fitzgerald had to beat Carol Mosely Braun, not a toughie. Running for a seat in DC is different for voters than running for The Seat in Springfield. They do understand that if they send a GOP to Washington, he wouldn’t be making decisions daily in The Mansion. There is a difference.

Same with voting for McCain. There is a difference. If McCain was running against Obama for Illinois governor, I don’t believe McCain would have pulled in those numbers in Cook.

This is a blue state. Everything will have to break for Brady. He is going to have to offer real solutions to our fiscal problems beyond his “no taxes” pledge. Brady runs the risk of looking out of touch and simplistic, because that is how a man who claims that Illinois is a “center-right” state sounds.

There is a difference between Reagan as a gubernatorial candidate and Reagan as a presidential candidate. He knew the difference between running for governor in California, and running for president in Texas.

Mr. Brady has an uphill battle regardless.

And I haven’t even started on his social stands…

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:47 am
“I would like to see how where Brady is against Quinn in the next decent poll.”

You mean like the one before primary election day that showed Brady getting around 9% of the vote?

Comment by Jechislo Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:53 am
Wordslinger is solid. Brady not only has to win significantly downstate but has to keep it close in Chicago and the ‘burbs to win. That’s how Edgar was able to win. But Brady doesn’t have Edgar’s suburban appeal and the hard right will make it difficult for him to tack center just as they will make it hard for Kirk to avoid tacking right. This is the curse of the tea bag.

Comment by D.P. Gumby Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 10:53 am
Enough with the “i won 88 counties” argument. Ever notice it is always the losing candidfate that announces how many counties he/she won. Eighty percent of the state’s population and votes are in the Chicago metro area. It doesn’t matter if you win 88 counties with no people in them. Let it go already. I am sick of this annual downstate argument.

Comment by chipolcon Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 11:16 am
DP Gumby,

While it may not be a proper comparison, Brown had the support of the tea party folk in Massachusetts even tho he is a declared social moderate. So chuck your tea “bag” stuff out the window. It’s the economy, stupid.

Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 11:19 am
A few points…

- Populations are higher in Chicagoland than anywhere else in the state with relatively few exceptions. Cook, DuPage, etc are much higher pops than downstate. Just a fact.

- Rich is right about Brady doing poorly in the suburbs. He had some ground game, but his overall message plan didn’t include Chicagoland to a great degree. That’ll be different for the fall.

- But, a look at total ballots pulled from either side shows Brady has a roughly 70,000-100,000 vote difference to make up. Even with absentees and provisionals still being tallied, the current totals are roughly:

Gov:
Dem 912,000+
Rep 765,000+

Sen:
Dem 901,000+
Rep 740,000+

Comment by Rob N Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 11:55 am
VanillaMan, Brady may have an uphill battle but against Quinn its uphill on the bunny slope…

Comment by Conservative Republican Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 12:18 pm
I, too, thank wordslinger.

In a discussion like this, it’s important to let the numbers dictate what strategy that is needed to get the votes, as opposed to “guessing” what message will dictate the numbers. The numbers show, thanks to wordslinger’s reminder, that you MUST run all over the state, and get THEIR voters out, because they are out there …everywhere … like I have been ’screaming’ about in this primary election, with all its whining.

Now some thoughts about those tickets getting those numbers:

Brady/Plummer (and until Dillard gets more votes in an offical capacity, or the “sun” again is beconed as a time frame, I am going to go under the thought of the B/P ticket) is a ticket that can be described as conservative and business orientated. A Quinn/Duckworth (Giving Sneed a “nod” so we can have a comparison, and that is the only reason) would be focused on a populist, for the people, public servant campaign, be that service in government or sacrifice in the military.

Before the Plummer “plummers” start their “truth posters”, let us be quite clear that if Plummer decides to compare “apples to apples” with the military service he and Duckworth should be judged, they will get pummeled.

So the framework of the two tickets is out. The question, looking at the numbers, seems to be, “Are the negatives of Pat Quinn, even with Duckworth and all she brings to prop him up, strong enough to withstand Brady’s pro-business, back to basics in goverment onslaught that will resonate in suburban Cook and the Collars?” Further, “Can Brady, and his upstart Plummer, (who now will not be able to hide in commercials and will have to be seen, good and/or bad) offset the surely negative ads and press they both will get as ‘Downstate conservatives, wealthy.” They will be painted as “not in touch with the urban voters that may worry socially moderates worried about extremists.”

What does this all mean?

The challenge for Brady/Plummer will be resonating with the same voters Mark Kirk will also need, while not alienating a downstate much more conservative base that Kirk will not enjoy as much. B/P would be in much better sted if Kirk campaigns with them in Cook and the Collars and says “They are the instruments of change we need for IL, like the change the US Senate needs when IL sends me there.” and kinda be done with it. B/P can give their blessing to Kirk downstate as “someone concerned about all of IL, not just the machine in Cook County” and be done with that. FIND your voters, and get them to the polls.

Quinn/Duckworth will be best served, at least in a snapshot today, and what appears to be the “Alexi bank storm” looming, to run as I described above, but run with Jesse White and Lisa Madigan, and in every district that MJM can/will help them. The Democratic ticket, sans SLC, on paper, is stronger than the GOP in depth at the SOS and AG spots, so why not have the 4 of them run hard together and drag the Comp and Treas along. Jesse and Lisa do very well downstate, and if Q/D can make this a “ticket” vote and drag out all their voters up north and “run the wards” in the city incredibly hard, that could be the formula. The model they should use (number-wise) is the Madigan-Birkett race as the lowest parameters of where their votes are and that could be enough.

The bottom line?

Kirk, and B/P need each other by getting a coalition of center-right voters up north that Brady did not get (according to Brad vote totals in the primary) and identify and run them north of I-80, and Kirk needs B/P to embrace and be seen with Kirk as the choice conservatives need to “run” their voters hard downstate to “make their voice heard in DC.”

Quinn/Duckworth needs to 86 an “Alexi” connection (as of today’s snapshot and possible trend…) and glom on to Lisa Madigan and Jesse White as “the ticket” and completely run as the “mainstream progressive public servants v. extreme conservatives, wealthy and not in touch with what real voters are going through” by focusing on the numbers and votes/voters illustrated by the Madigan-Birkett numbers as your model to win against B/P.

How do these suggestions actually work …

HAVE A FIELD ORGANIZATION, WORK YOUR VOTERS THAT MEET THESE CRITERIA AND VOTE THOSE VOTERS!

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 12:24 pm
I dont think that the numbers look to good for Dillard at this point, if he doesnt pull head of Brady from the ballots in Cook and Collar I dont see it happening down state. There is not reason to suspect that break on the absentee and provisional ballots will be substantial different than the votes on election day.

If Brady can keep the election focused on economic issues, government and making a clean break with the past, I think that he has a very good shot of winning in November. If Quinn underestimated Brady he is making a big mistake, one that I think a lot of people having been making.

Comment by RMW Stanford Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 12:46 pm
Brady is no Edgar. Edgar was an established statewide leader that was widely known throughout Illinois. He followed Thompson. Edgar predates the reimaging of the GOP in 1994, which Illinois has turned against. Voters felt they knew Jim Edgar. Brady doesn’t have that at all.

Brady is no Fitzgerald. Sending a conservative to Washington to replace a failed Braun was a snap.

Brady is no Kirk. Kirk has a long history representing the center-left northern suburbs. He was considered too liberal by Brady voters.

Brady won smart. With the Primary divided as it was, he only had to win 20%. He got it by being the only Downstater running.

That isn’t going to be enough, but that is his only strength. Plummer brings nothing but rubber neckers wondering how that kid got on the ticket. Brady’s simple conservative messages on our fiscal floundering sound simple and naive. Brady’s conservative messages on social issues appeal to only a minority of Illinoisans.

Brady’s appeal is strickly regional, but that was enough to win the Primary last week.

He will only win if he makes himself a novelty, creates a humorous image that shows he has no fangs, and openly recognizes how he differs from the majority of Illinois voters, but that the situation we face as a state, requires the Brady approach. He has to appeal as a “fish out of water” to Chicagoland. He has to do it with intelligence and humor. Voters have to see that he won’t force his social views upon them, but instead will strictly focus on the economic disasters awaiting him in Springfield. He cannot be seen as a stereotypical downstate Republican. He cannot pretend he is in the mainstream. He cannot spout out silly conservative bumper sticker nonsense such as Illinois is a “center-right” state.

I don’t see him doing that. I think he is still in shock that he won.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 1:04 pm
With Brady on the ticket, social issues which might not have been on the table with a less conservative Republican candidate especially during an economic downturn, will be a significant distraction. Abortion rights. Creationism. Gun control. These will distract attention nicely from economic and fiscal management issues and operate to Quinn’s benefit. Of course, we don’t know the impact of the Blago trial, if it happens. But while Illinois re-debates Roe vs. Wade, Quinn is likely to
waltz right past the goalpost.

Comment by cassandra Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 1:45 pm
A full 22% of the population of Illinois lives in the City of Chicago. Another 19% lives in suburban Cook County. A full 41% of the entire state lives in Cook County.

One of the reasons for the GOP decline is the continuing inability and/or refusal to fully contest elections within Cook County and Chicago. The reasons are several, from a lack of funding to a lack of leadership, but also underlying it is the simple truth that many Cook County Republican officeholders have been bought off by, or have formed self-serving relationships with Chicago Machine. The “Cook County Combine” (though some of it runs into DuPage) is very real, and runs to some of the highest levels of the GOP.

If the GOP does not act to knock down the Democratic plurality in Chicago and Cook County in 2010, the rest of the state is not going to make up the difference.

Comment by Bubs Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 2:25 pm
I hear all these arguements and I keep falling back to one big issue. The democrats have controled this state for years and have run it into the ground. In this election cycle I am hearing die hard dems in Lake County saying they are voting for a republican regardless who it is. The same measures dont apply anymore. This is a different election year. People are fed up with corrruption on both sides and are voting for change. I think you will see some long time GOP’ers kicked out of office and quite a few Dem’s. Since there are more dems, more will lose in November.

In the end no one votes for or against a governor candidate because of their running mate. This will boil down to Quinn and his 50% tax increase vs Brady/Dillard and there tax cutting message. In this economy I will take the tax cut vs tax hike candidate 100% of the time.

Comment by Antiochian Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 2:37 pm
===In the end no one votes for or against a governor candidate because of their running mate.===

I think, when Stevenson ran for governor, the thinking was different.

Further, I don’t think Quinn wanted to test that theory out …

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 3:17 pm
For those who say Brady is too conservative, you are reading a pamphlet, not listening to Bill Brady. His top two issues are the budget and jobs. That is his message. You cannat say his message does not play in the top 7 counties because they have not heard it yet.

The national news and even the candidates in the Primary did not list Brady as a viable candidate and they were all WRONG. To say Brady only won because of…is ridiculous. Brady ran a 5 year campaign and beat all commers. Each time a new opponent got into the race he adjusted the game plan to win. Jim Ryan tried to sell himself downstate, but could not break into Brady’s stronghold. Don’t discount that.

We also have to look at the other side of the race. Brady does not have to be Ronald Reagan, he just has to beat Pat Quinn. a candidate who,

1. admittedly oblivious to the most corrupt Governor in history who he ran with twice and served under for 6 years.

2. His own party is not exactly glowing endorsements for.

3. Can’t find a viable running mate willing to tie their political carreer to his who hasn’t beat up a hooker.

4. By all estimates is in for a very long summer with a budget nightmare.

Look at Brady, he is a successful business man who has done well in both houses and he just outwit and outlast a bunch of better financed candidates. All he does is quietly succeed at about everything he tries.

Maybe you are right that Bill Brady can’t win a statewide election, but Drew Breeze is too short to play in the NFL too. That may be a bad analogy, but if you meet with Bill Brady you see a genuiness that has been missing in Illinois politics for a long time. Go see him and tell me I am wrong.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 4:10 pm
I think Brady has a real chance in November for a couple of reasons. He’s not Quinn, and he’s not a Democrat. I think a lot of people figure the Dems have had their chance even after Blago and they proved they couldn’t or wouldn’t make the tough decision.
He appears to be a reasonable person and he might have a solution to the State’s problems. Everyone knows the other side doesn’t, or doesn’t care, so what do voters have to lose.
Quinn has done nothing to elicit any hope that he will govern and who wants four more years of what we have? I think Quinn’s legacy will be that he was given the golden opportunity and he did nothing with it. And I think MJM will look back at his decision to do nothing until after the election as a major faux pas.

And yes, Brady should campaign north of Rte# 80. How many years did the collar counties run the GA?

Comment by Irish Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 4:14 pm
It’s a long time until November and time is on Brady’s side. He’ll have plenty of time to critique every move Quinn makes and every issue Quinn avoids. Given that the state is in deep financial trouble, the governor keeps changing his mind about how to address it, and the legislature has dumped the dirty work in Quinn’s lap, he can’t afford mistakes. Brady doesn’t have to prove he can clean up the mess - he just has to argue convincingly that he can and come up with a plan. A plan which may or may not work when actually applied.

Then, there is always the skeleton-in-the-closet factor that tends to start rattling about whenever there’s an election. We’re in for a long campaign season.

Comment by Aldyth Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 4:17 pm
Brady will win this primary with not a lot of net change vote wise overallwhen its done. Though not bringing in big numbers in the ‘city” ; he held his own in the 6 way race of which 5 were from Chicago/ collars & ran the table down south. If Dillard calls for a recount it will cost him 100’s of thousands & literally months to settle. That would really cripple the GOP tremendously almost ensuring a Dem win. Brady , if declared winner then has 9 months plus to make his case, put his campaign together, raise some $$ & the dynamics will change from primary contender to a nominee. Dillard has to realize that he didn’t run a good campaign outside Chicago & put too much dependance of Edgar.

As to the dems they’ve got big trouble from the beginning, complicated by a session that won’t net much real relief, the Blago trial & all Quinns mis-steps since taking office over a year ago.

Comment by downstater Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 5:01 pm
Are we one hundred percent certain VanillaMan is not Kirk Dillard? Seriously, whether or not you catch up, the primary campaign ended one week ago.

Comment by T.J. Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 5:08 pm
The primary is over, all precincts are in & it’s just the remaining ELIGIBLE absentee ballots left to count. Dillard will not win the primary. Minimal if any real net change in the totals. Sorry for Sen. Dillard as it isn’t going to happen for him. I hope he’ll realize that & when this election is certified join other GOP’rs & help Bill Brady win in November. Everyone talks unity ; let’s try some.

Comment by downstater Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 5:28 pm
It is very possible that Dillard can take the lead especially with Cook-DuPage-Lake etc..he trails by 380, so it’s very possible.

I will say it is headed for a recount unless Brady gains votes, which appears unlikely.

I also agree with VanillaMan, Dillard is the only one with a chance at winning in November…& that’s not even an argument.

Comment by scoot Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 5:36 pm
Dillard is not the only one that can beat Quinn, so that answer is moot. If anyone thinks Quinn is not a bloodied incumbent …

I think all you Dillard “sun” worshippers need to take heed to what Rich and Mark Brown were emphasisizing. This ain’t the 1980’s and a lead of 400, or 300, or even 200, (who really knows) with the technology, thoses leads can hold.

Dillard needs a reality check. If he wants to wait, which he is, then let him. Since Edgar stated that he (Edgar) felt Dillard is not going to catch Brady, then let the votes be counted, but Edgar’s statement was a subtle hint, “Kirk, don’t let this go on too far.”

We should give Dillard a wide berth, since he has stopped with the timetables, but Kirk, if you lose, then listen to Jim Edgar, because, didn’t you ask US, THE VOTER, to listen to him too?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 5:47 pm
Does anyone have the number of republican provisional ballots cast? Also how many republican absentee ballots left to count?

Comment by Tired Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 6:05 pm
I think Dillard had a good race also but he won’t make up the votes he needs to win. If you total all the votes listed in Lake and others it is a few hundred and not all of them will go to Dillard or Brady. Brady beat Dillard in 90 or more counties downstate even if Brady just averaged 5 votes net in each county he would add 450 votes to his total.

Your right Brady didn’t take on the other 6 candidates in the collars and Cook counties except to get just enough votes to win. It would have been pretty dumb to try to take on candidates in an expensive media market in their own backyard. Of course it was his strategy not too takes them on and let them fight it out and have them take each other out, which they did.

Now in the General Election it does not mean he can’t change targets and win votes in the Collars and Cook. Allot those Conservatives and voters that supported the other 6 republicans aren’t going to move unless Quinn does pass a tax increase. There is plenty of middle of road voters that want to hear from someone that will fix the state budget so their school will actually get the funding they are promised, or that will bring some sanity to the state.
There is plenty of voter’s downstate and where Plummer is from and they really like him down there and R/P Lumber gives folks a lot of jobs down there democrats and republicans will both vote for them both. Really the ticket is well balanced up and down from Senate on down. Brady and his organization will work their butts off. So have fun and good luck making fun of Brady and how naive he is, yes we are all still in shock.;)

Comment by Dnstateanon Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 6:42 pm
I am so tired of Plummer “Plumbers” fixing the leaks of this 27 year old novice that he adds so much …He adds $$$ that Brady will be draining, and he adds a contrast, a better one to SLC, and now a weak one to probably a concensus Dem LG candidate that, according to what the Dems will try, a sincere ticket-strengthing LG that Plummer could not be for numerous reasons, like age and experience.

Jay-Jay better hope his dad gives more people jobs, or worse, Jay-Jay better hope his dad doesn’t have any layoffs or closing of locations.

And… if I understand you correctly, “My dad got you a job, so .. you better vote for me and Brady ’cause dad was kool, and you’re workin’ and stuff!”

At 27, the only thing Jay-Jay Plummer is creating job-wise is padding Jay-Jay’s resume’

With SLC gone, and … do not think its not happening, the worry of Jay-Jay buying this do-nothing office … lets be honest for a second, these two “winners”, SLC and Jay-Jay, will lead to the end of, at least, a loner LG candidate, and possibly, the elimination of the office.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 7:31 pm
A Dillard win in this primary is really unlikely. Brady can win in November , some 9 months away with some coaching & time further to develop a message, raise some cash & broaden the base. His strenghth was his campaign & he stayed on message above the fray. Some of these prognosticators here, seemingly in the know, are the ones who thought he wouldn’t win or even place. He was the sleeper candidate that kept on campaining. Maybe just giving him the benefit of the doubt ; he did a better job, he didn’t depend on Edgar to carry him & didn’t blowoff downstate.

Comment by downstater Tuesday, Feb 9, 10 @ 8:21 pm
“Jay-Jay better hope his dad gives more people jobs, or worse, Jay-Jay better hope his dad doesn’t have any layoffs or closing of locations.”

Have you ever even been to Illinois? The only thing you got right was “27.” It’s like an attack on Pat Quinn that assumes Pat is short for Patricia.

Comment by T.J. Wednesday, Feb 10, 10 @ 4:36 am
T. J.

I am “mocking” Jason’s age, by calling him a “younger” name, “Jay-Jay” … Can you not see where I was going with that????

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Feb 10, 10 @ 10:16 am