Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Question of the day

Posted in:

Illinois

* Out of everyone who lost primary races earlier this month, which candidates do you think have the brightest futures? Which have the dimmest? Please answer both, and explain.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:36 am

Comments

Art Turner - having the speaker as your ace in the hole always makes the future bright

Andy Mckenna - burned too many political bridges with negative ads and his polling debacle.

Comment by A Moderate's Moderate Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:49 am
I think Dan Hynes has the brightest future. He’s what, 41? In the coming years he’s going to look prescient in his forecasting of the budget meltdown. He fought a great campaign and came within a whisper of knocking off an incumbent governor. He exited with class by wishing Quinn well for the sake of Illinois. He’ll be back at some point, and I think he’ll be welcomed back warmly.

Dimmest future: too easy. Scott Lee Cohen. It is amazing that he spent $2 million and all he managed to do was destroy his reputation. Great work by his consultants, they ensured that by winning the nomination he could never get elected. I’d list the consultants as 1A in the biggest losers from the primary list.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:51 am
Brightest future: David Hoffman. Hoffman did well without much financial backing and the lack of name recognition. It’s now up to Hoffman to try and run again for another office. Bleakest future: Beth Coulson. Coulson doesn’t have much of a future in the Illinois Republican party after her loss in the primary to Robert Dold.

Comment by Steve Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:52 am
Raja.

Being Obama’s former policy director.

From downstate.

A hero to the South Asian community in Illinois that is yearning for someone from their background to get elected statewide,
I think his future looks very bright.

Plus the young man with many years ahead of him can raise big money - a prerequisite in big elections to winning. Not many can raise big money.

Comment by illinois outsider Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:52 am
Hoffman. If he had another week or two, I think he would have won the Senate primary on the Dem side and while it may not be true, it seems if people want folks who are “unsullied” by having been part of the party apparatus. A great deal of his “appeal” is that he seems (hopefully it is true) untainted by the stench of being part of the political game.

Comment by disgusted in chi boogie Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:54 am
Brightest - David Hoffman. He ran an effective campaign, racked up the newspaper endorsements, and had a great showing against Alexi, all in his very first real campaign effort. I don’t know what he’ll run for in the future, but there’s no doubt we’ll see him run again. Whether it be for the Mayor of Chicago, the Governor of Illinois, the Illinois Attorney General, a United States Senator or Representative, or something else, we’ll have to wait and see. Whatever he runs for though, I have a hard time imagining that he’ll have as much of a hill to climb as he did this past campaign.

Dimmest - Either Ryan or McKenna. McKenna burned just about every bridge you can imagine in the political party and spent a whole lot of money, only to come in third place. Ryan, despite the name recognition and experience, had a miserable showing, ran a dull campaign, gave a horrible concession speech, and officially retired. I don’t think we’ll see either of them as legitimate ballot contenders any time soon.

Comment by TJ Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:55 am
Dim Jim Ryan.

His political career must be over.

Bright Adam A. It’s REALLY too bad he didn’t run for a lower spot. He should find a nice open seat in a decent district and go for it.

Comment by Pat collins Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:56 am
Hoffman never had a politcal career and it was short lived.

Mike Boland is a “dead man” walking!

Comment by ready Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:58 am
Brightest- Raja & Hynes

Raja- he came extremely close to winning a race that many deemed unwinnable, and broke fundraising records doing it. Would have been interesting to see the results had he run for Treasurer instead.

Hynes- also came extremely close to winning a primary that many considered to be a huge hurdle with an incumbent Governor. Showed creativity and strength with his Harold Washington Ad. Also showed many that he had “what it takes” to run an effective campaign, and still be magnanimous in debates. I could see him running again in the future.

Dimmest- agree on Mckenna. You can’t outspend your opponents by five fold in a crowded primary, lose, and then come back from the dead. I’d also add Justin Olberman. How many different big ticket offices are you going to run for and lose before you look the Democratic Jim Oberweis?

Comment by Bring Back Boone's Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:05 pm
A bright future: Newcomer Todd Connor from the Water Rec race in Cook. A tireless campaigner who seemed to win over everyone he met….but burdened with a terrible ballot position. Excuse the cliche’ but in politics “for all the right reasons.”

Comment by Mike Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:06 pm
I was impressed by Raja on the basis of his TV spot. He was great on camera and his promise of posting contracts online was attainable and easily appreciated.

Lot of losers with dim futures. Out of them all, I’d say McKenna has the dimmest. He’s been rejected pretty harshly by GOP voters twice now. What else could he run for?

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:08 pm
Raja. Not many candidates raised over a million like he did. Asian American Democrats want to elect an Asian American to the legislature and statewide. Democratic Party should pay closer attention to the Asian community. Republican Party has two Asian Americans supported by the party on the ballot. Democrats have none.

Comment by Illinois voter Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:08 pm
Biggest winnrer - Raja, just for making the race interesting, reminding me of Jindal, and will be someone who has a future, as long he dosen’t become the perrenial candidate, but not seeing that in his future.

Biggest Loser - Dorothy Brown, hands down, almost a “turn off the lights, it’s over”. She is the lamest of ducks, having to serve 2 years with zero chance of doing something politically after that, and possibly under a closer eye by people Cook County pols fear most ….and, you only beat Stroger? Really?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:09 pm
meant to say Raja has the brightest future. Not sure who has the dimmest other than the obvious Cohen.

Comment by Illinois voter Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:12 pm
Off Topic Question: Anyone out there tracking the reporting of GOP counting of absentee/provisionals?

Comment by Chad Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:12 pm
Raja biggest winner, many did not know of him and he got a lot of votes, and campaign money.

Todd Stroger dimist future. With a loss like his for an incumbent what is left?

Comment by Third Generation Chicago Native Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:13 pm
Toni P. has the brighest future because she won by using her brains. and she worked hard to earn not only the respect of voters, but their trust as well. she remained true to herself and was a real class act all the way. initially i underestimated her in thinking that the playing nice-nice wouldn’t get her very far in a high-stakes COOK county race, but she proved that if you are smart enough and have talent you can win, and win big. it also helps if you are running against some not so stellar candidates too. her victory was by a decisive margin. i disagreed with her courting mayor daley in order to win, but if he did help her in anyway i’m not so sure she really needed him. i’d like to think she won that race by such a decisive margin largely, or entirely, on her own. provided she can keep John and Rich Daley out of her administration business, which i hope for her sake she does, she should do just fine, and cook county as a whole will be much better off.

the biggest loser is….yep, you’ve guessed it…pat quinn! here was a man who built up more than 30 years of credibility as an honest reformer good government type only to cash it all in for the sake of winning his primary race. he is now officially part of the chicago dem machine. earlier in 2009 he could tell the media anything and they would believe him (e.g., “I don’t know nothin’ about no $15,000 face time pitch from my political campaign operative” or, “no you can’t see the records from my blackberry/cell phone that i use to conduct state business…I’m pat quinn and you guys in the media know me…i would never do anything untoward or dishonest” etc.)

but, by the end of 2009 the media were not as trusting or accepting of pat quinn’s word,, as his tendency to flip flop, obfuscate and, well, um, lie cost him dearly (e.g., MGT Push etc).
he managed to undo in less than one year what it took him 30+ years to build. WOW! AMAZING!

then there was his performace during debates (e.g., WTTW) against Dan Hynes in which he displayed a side of himself that he had managed to hide so well over the years. an unpleasant and ugly side. sure, we all have our unpleasant and ugly ways, but for quinn this was most revealing and in a very bad way given his stature and position in illinois government. for me, it was sad to see and given the persona he had always projected over the years, something that I would not have expected to see in a million years.

finally the harold washington video tape from more than 20 years ago was just devasting to quinn’s credibility as a “leader”, in my view. it really did explain that last year’s quinn gaffe were not just “newbie” jitters, contrary to what some may think, but indicative much larger problems with quinn: inability to lead, lack of discipline and focus etc. Of course quinn’s state of the state his insistence (lobbying) that he be allowed to give his budget address AFTER his primary race, both of which happened before the washington tape surfaced, only served to re-inforce everything that Washington said and highlighted the painful fact that in 20+ years Quinn had not learned from his firing or bothered to improve himself. geeze. God help us all.

Comment by Will County Woman Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:17 pm
Rich, you must hate it when posters just ignore the question and plug in their pre-programmed rants.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:19 pm
As someone who has always liked Jim Ryan, it pains me to say that I think his political career was over some time ago, therefore, the biggest loser on the GOP side is probably McKenna, for the reasons posted by others. Adam A has a bright future and agree he should look for a Cong. race or State Sen./Rep race to run for. Party regulars are going to remember him and will be open to considering him for office in the future.

Comment by Cousin Ralph Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:21 pm
Uh …I believe Quinn … wait, lemme check again …Guv race, Dems … yep … Quinn won

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:25 pm
change loser to “dim.” the overall jist is the same. Quinn’s future whether he wins in november or not is dimmed by his “uncharteristic,” but real, behavior during the primary.

Comment by Will County Woman Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:26 pm
Brightest: Raja. Anytime you outperform analysts’ expectations, your stock is rising.

Dimmest: By the same token, Dillard, McKenna and Hoffman. Dillard atleast will remain a force in Springfield, and may get a second bite at the apple.

For all his millions, Andy McKenna is done. So too is Hoffman, who I predict will be forced to sit out the Mayor’s race, anf fall off the face-of-the-earth for atleast 3 years.

Little-known fact: Even after a sharp drop this year, Chicagoland still has 172,000 millionaires (Hattip: Crain’s) Combine Republicans and Reform Democrats can and will find better sugar daddy’s than McKenna and Crain’s.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:31 pm
Will County Woman bores us to death AGAIN…

Biggest Winner: Raja: this man will be on the ballot again soon…

Biggest Loser: Cohen: in every sense of the word…

Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:32 pm
Will County Woman…you can stop with the Hynes talking points, the primary is over.

Comment by Niles Township Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:32 pm
best:raja. for all the reasons mentioned above. He would do very very well in the suburbs and the Indians are a growing powerhouse. If I were a democrat, I would want him as my lt gov nominee right now. He would do very very well in new trier and lake county.

jim ryan-I don’t know him that well, but he showed a lot of class and looked like an elder statesman particularly in the wttw debate.

pat brady-if he can get mark kirk past alexi, he could be around a long long time. He seems like an actual human being and a decent guy.

dimmest-I disagree on hoffman. He doesn’t seem like he gets it. His resume is great for the gop. He doesn’t seem like a progressive and i don’t know where if there are enough blue dog democrats in the Illinois dem party.

establishment democrats and republicans. dillard, mckenna,hastert,hynes,coulson,hamos, lisa madigan. The state is in god awful shape and these folks haven’t really made it better. Jan also got pasted again on the north shore 0-7 in congressional elections here since 2000.

aaron schock-the pasting he took on sunday on meet the press from a talk show host rated dead last on msnbc shows he’s got a long way to go.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/ns/msnbc_tv-rachel_maddow_show#35393918

Comment by shore Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:37 pm
In Kane County:

Dim, Mark Guethle and Jennifer Laesch. Although they are the Central Committeemen, outside of Elgin and Aurora they have no traction getting Democrats elected.

Bright: Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia. although she lost Central Committeewoman to Jennifer Laesch, she proved Aurora is her turf and no hijinks by the Laesch’s to knock people off the ballot were successful.

Comment by PinkGirl Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:40 pm
In Aurora:

Dim. Mayor Tom Weisner & Jennifer Laesch. Mayor lost 4 of 5 primaries he was backing, old guard is slipping.

Bright: Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia, can build coalitions to be Mayor of Aurora one day and move up to State wide

Comment by PinkGirl Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:42 pm
Dem brightest…Raja….engaging, great fundraiser, got almost all the newspaper endorsements and almost clipped Miller. He turned out to be a great candidate.

Dem dimmest…Sticking with the same race: Clint Krislov. I know, many of you are asking who is that? How does the rich guy get in after two aborted previous efforts and spend no money? Clint, Were you really flirting with office for the last 14 years just so you could get 8% in a Comptrollers race, really? No, really?

Repub Brightest…hard, very hard. Maybe Adam…he finished better than any polling suggested he would and he developed a following.

Repub dimmest….tons of competition here. Beth Coulson and Ethan Hastert…started with all the advantages but in the end they didn’t even keep it close. Matt Murphy… lost to that shady kid….Ouch…the glow it will take him years to live that down. Jim Ryan….not to pile on because he is a class guy but getting in without a plan to win made him an object of pity instead of honor. And Gary Skoien…well, because he is Gary Skoien.

Comment by raising kane Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:42 pm
Brightest:

Dems: Hoffman: another week and he might’ve won. He just needs to keep his nose clean.

GOP: Andrzejewski: also came on strong in the end. If his name was slightly easier to pronounce or if he’d run for a down ballot race, he would’ve won.

Dimmest:

Dems: Hynes. If you can beat Quinn in this environment, you don’t deserve to stick around.

GOP: McKenna. Hopefully we’ve finally seen the last of this guy.

Comment by Steve-O Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:01 pm
I’m gonna go against the tide and say Cohen has the best future.

Not in politics. Reality Television.

The man is a born Reality TV star. How long until somebody figures out a reality show that pairs Blago and Cohen? That $2 million will like a mighty wise investment once he banks a coupla million on the D-list celebrity circuit.

Biggest loser: Todd Stroger.

Comment by jerry 101 Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:11 pm
I’ll add Proft to the list of losers with dim future (yikes, what a designation).

He was supposed to be the Big Heat from the right wing. Didn’t happen.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:16 pm
Brightest future:
Hoffman. Importantly, he exceeded expectations. He is positioned well to the center for a political party full of extremists. Eventually, his message will be recognized as the correct one for a statewide candidacy.

The dimmest:
Except for Ryan, who now acknowledges the fact that he politically expired back in 2002 - I’d say Dan Hynes.

Now, I know some consider his future bright - but reality demonstrated repeatedly the opposite. He didn’t exceed expectations, once again. He did a very poor job in 2004 against Hull and Obama, and he lost to Quinn, who is decidedly a second stringer kind of candidate. Yeah - he came close this time, but who is going to listen to him again, and really believe he could win a future election?

No. Dan Hynes’ political career expired this month.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:27 pm
–He is positioned well to the center for a political party full of extremists.–

LOL. Only in your small world, brother.

A question on your logic, though: If one if a member of a party full of extremists, how does being positioned in the center give you a bright future?

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:34 pm
Bright: Hoffman, Conner, Toni P,
Dim: Tribune and their ONLY choice for Gov…McKenna

Comment by One to the Dome Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:01 pm
One, Toni P won. That’s not the question.

Also, the Tribune wasn’t a candidate.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:04 pm
Brightest–David Hoffman–another week or two in the primary, and he’d have been the Dem nominee. Showed he can compete with the big guns.

Dimmest–Ryan. Stick a fork in him, his time is past.

Comment by Mountain Man Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:11 pm
===another week or two in the primary, and he’d have been the Dem nominee. ===

Gawd, but I hate that line. Everybody knows when election day is.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:17 pm
A question on your logic, though: If one if a member of a party full of extremists, how does being positioned in the center give you a bright future?

Geez, it is one of those day for you today, eh?

…because the voting results will indicate that the Party Hoffman is in has swung too far left in 2010.

BTW, the GOP is full of extremists too, but it still looks like they got their extremist nominee.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:19 pm
I make no bones about the fact that I think very highly of him, but I suspect Dan Hynes will go into private business, make money, and raise his family. I don’t hope that, but I expect it, and we should all wish him well. He has been a good public servant.

Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:21 pm
Dimmest: Dorothy Brown, Andrew McKenna, Jim Ryan. All are multiple time losers at this point. Todd Stroger also has a very dim future. He couldn’t get the Cook County Democratic Party’s endorsement and as the incumbent finished dead last in a four person field. Jacob Meister is another one who is total toast. Whatever support and possible future he might have had was extinguished by his last minute decision to drop out of the race. Jim Madigan is another one who probably has no future. He ran a race with little justification for his candidacy against an incumbent who agreed with him on all of the big issues and got trounced 2 to 1. Lots of bridges burned there.

I agree that Raja’s future looks promising, after his narrow loss and being the only Asian American candidate in the state with any name recognition.

Todd Connor ran a good race and was saddled with a horrible ballot position. He could come back and run again some day.

Dan Hynes’ should be back too - might even be back sooner than we think if he is talked into the lite gov spot in the name of party unity. If the Dems lose the governorship this year, he could be back in 2014 if Lisa does not want to run for governor.

Comment by LouisXIV Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:50 pm
Bright:

1. Hoffman: Things got heated, but not enough where he will be an outcast. He needs to embrace being a moderate/right Dem though, and run on it. There is a place for that in the party.

2. Raja: Ran a great race, ran it with class, got great reviews in the one race where people looked at picking “the best” as opposed to the “the best of the worst.” There is going to be an elected office in his future.

3. Dave Schroeder. For a first time candidate, ran a great race and ran it without getting ugly. Won the 42nd and 2nd Wards. It is pretty clear that when ward boundaries are re-drawn, Dunkin is going to want no part of those wards, and Schroeder seems well positioned to win in a new high-rise district.

Dim:

So many are obvious (Stroger), but a few stand out.

1.Dorothy Brown. She’s gone from somebody who thought she could move up to somebody who probably cannot hold her own position.

2. Dan Burke. Likely will need re-districting to save him. That may be done, but I don’t see how he holds again in his currently drawn district.

3. McKenna. Proved once and for all that he cannot win a race. I don’t see him trying again.

Comment by OdysseusVL Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:06 pm
Dim:
Bassi - her career is over.
Ditto for Skoien & Stroger

Comment by respectful Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:28 pm
Rich…I stand corrected about Toni. Could not resist about the Trib since they did not endorse anyone on the Dem side.

Comment by One to the Dome Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:35 pm
Bright - Dillard: If he loses this race, he still has a great future. Prediction - When Judy Biggert steps down, he will be her replacement.

Dim - Jim Ryan: His late entry into the race lost him any future support. It also caused Dillard’s defeat.

Comment by storman norman Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 4:22 pm
Brightest - Julie Hamos. She is just too effective a legislator for people not to want her back in government, somewhere.

Dimmest - Another vote for Dorothy Brown. Her Cook-wide GOTV opreration had always bowled me over. Where were all these people coming from? But now she just looks hapless and vulnerable.

Comment by Ivory-billed Woodpecker Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 4:25 pm
My bad on including Burke. The question asked only about primary losers. Didn’t notice that until after I posted.

Comment by OdysseusVL Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 4:29 pm
=== It also caused Dillard’s defeat. ===

What caused Dillards defeat was 20+% turnout, coupled by a horrendous GOTV… 4 out of 5 voters stayed home and didn’t vote for Dillard, that is what caused his defeat …

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 4:52 pm
=== It also caused Dillard’s defeat. ===

Sorry, me …

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 4:55 pm
DIllard future is done! He might stay as Senator but his numbers in Dupage didn’t carry the day. He believed his own press clippings that he was doing great downstate when he had no ground game he won up in the chicago area because everyone up here believed him too. He doesn’t understand his own party. He was a conservative who ran away from it and it cost him the primary. Jim Edgar doesn’t play well in the primary, where was he four years ago?

Comment by votecounter Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 5:15 pm
Raja was the biggest winner of the losers hands down. He won big votes in areas Dems will need in Nov. He actually ran on a message that makes sense and is actionable. And, of course, he killed it in fundraising. He should be the LG pick, but we all know this state doesn’t pick the people who are the most qualified or who can make the most impact, but, rather, we pick people based on how many favors they are owed. Enter Art Turner. Coming in second to Scott Lee Cohen is reason enough for him to be DISQUALIFIED. How do you miss Cohen’s weaknesses?

Comment by Jow Blow Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 5:23 pm
A little tired of the bashing Hoffman is getting from Shore and Yellow Dog Democrat. Considering no one really knew who he was, that Alexi was an elected STATEwide official, Ms. Jackson could have had two bases, he lost by 5 percentage points when down by 25 points a month earlier.

We have a great, fantastic Democratic Senator next door in Indiana leave the Senate because he is too honest, too moderate, not an ideology, and actually listens to other points of view. From the musings of Shore and YDD, that’s a weakness.

Voters are neither liberal nor conservative although those people make the most noise without actually getting things done. Sigh.

Comment by anon13 Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 5:53 pm
Brightest star: Todd Connor, he just needs to run in a race that people pay attention to. Guy is smart, energetic, and highly electable. Same for Eamon Kelly who ran for 18th district rep. I’m convinced he’ll hold elected office one day. I’m also gonna throw in Daniel Biss (who ran unopposed in the dem primary for 17th district rep). I’m convinced that he’s going to be a future leader of the democratic party in this state. These three have very bright futures ahead of them in electoral politics.

Dimmest: Can’t be Brown cause she was already done after her run against Daley. Coulson is a easy choice cause that district was built for a candidate oof her profile and she blew it. But I actually have an easier choice that I’m surprised hasn’t come up yet, Jim Madigan. He used to be a bright star until he went up against Heather Steans and decided to fight dirty, only to get destroyed despite many people warning him that this was exactly how it was going to end. He’s officially FINISHED in this state.

Comment by SweetLou Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 12:13 am
Dim: Hoffman - spent $1,000,000 of his own money trying to buy election. Not a good fit in the party. Based on the biting the hand that feeds him way he approached inspector general job, no one in the party will trust him - he is a loose cannon.

at the end of the day, organizations win elections and no committeemen or other politcal orgs will support him. cuased too much trouble for committeemen in his past job. Goo-goos, grass roots, outsiders, et. al. will only get you so far. Even Toni had backdoor support from organization to supplant her lake-shore goo-goo backers.

Hoffman is toast. Stick a fork in him and leave him to count his Geico money.

Comment by DM Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 5:00 am