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* Yet another poll has state Sen. Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn by a ten-point margin. Public Policy Polling has posted its new numbers. Rasmussen’s results from early March are in parentheses…
Bill Brady 43 (47)
Pat Quinn 33 (37)
An incumbent Democrat in a Democratic state polling in the low thirties is absolutely horrific. There’s just no other way to say it. And setting aside Quinn’s own fate, he’s gotta somehow turn this around or he could take down a whole lot of Democrats this fall. Toplines and crosstabs are here.
From the pollster…
Part of Quinn’s problem within his own party is the same as that of Alexi Giannoulias- many Democrats who aren’t too high on him aren’t choosing a side for now. 28% of Democrats are undecided while only 13% of Republicans are. But Quinn is in a deeper hole than his party’s Senate nominee because 19% of Democrats have already decided to support Brady for Governor compared to only 10% going for Mark Kirk against Giannoulias.
There were contentious primaries on both sides for Governor, but the numbers indicate that the Republicans have unified around Brady while Democrats are just as divided about Quinn as they were two months ago. Only 37% of voters in his party say they approve of the job the Governor is doing to 36% who disapprove, that 1 point net approval pretty much analogous to his one point victory in the primary. For Brady though 44% of Republicans now see him favorably, more than double the percentage of the vote he won in February, while only 11% have a negative opinion of him.
More…
There’s virtually nothing positive that can be derived from Quinn’s poll numbers. Democrats only approve of him by the smallest of margins, 37/36. African Americans disapprove of him by a 24/37 spread, although they still plan to vote for him 51-17. Only 23% of independents and 10% of Republicans think he’s doing a good job.
“It’s very unusual for someone with Pat Quinn’s approval numbers to get reelected,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Maybe voters won’t like what they see once they become more familiar with Bill Brady but for now Republicans are strongly favored to win this race.”
Quinn’s best hope is that the economy turns around a bit and that he can make Brady look like evil incarnate. But the governor doesn’t even have a campaign team in place yet, while Brady is busily putting together the infrastructure he’ll need in the fall.
* Methodology…
PPP surveyed 591 Illinois voters from April 1st to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 10:35 am
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Remarkable!
Remember what I wrote when the first poll came out showing Brady way ahead? While most everyone, except the die-hard GOPers thought the poll was an outlier, I asked, “what if this poll is true? What does it mean?”
Well, I still want to know. Yeah, I recognize that what the pollsters are saying about Democrats not rallying around Quinn, (because I am one of those not rallying), but still - Brady?
I thought these kinds of polling numbers were supposed to have happened four years ago with Blagojevich? That would make more sense. I thought Topinka seemed more centrist and acceptable to Illinoisans than Brady since after all she was repeatedly elected statewide for 12 years. But NOOooo. We’re getting these polling numbers between Quinn and Brady.
‘Sigh!’
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 10:48 am
Maybe Quinn is having a hard time getting anyone to agree to be campaign manager. The lower he goes in the polls, and he will go lower, the harder it will be to put together a quality team or raise any money. At this point the economy can’t get good enough to help Quinn. He’s probably really popular with republicans and business interests for his pension deform but the faucet will still be shut off when he tries to pander to labor for money. Even SEIU can’t be too happy after wasting millions on his primary only to get their future members screwed.
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 10:54 am
And SEIU current members, not the unhired, will be better with Brady? Gimme a break
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 10:57 am
==Part of Quinn’s problem within his own party is the same as that of Alexi Giannoulias==
Really, we are going to blame Alexi for Quinn’s problem. Quinn walked lock step with a sociopath for 6 1/2 year and through two elections and claims he had no idea. Per the news yesterday, Sharon Osbourne figured it out almost the instant she met Blago.
Quinn want’s to cut education and strip the State Police, but leave thousands of Blago hirees in place. Yea, Aleai is the problem.
Brady, go to Cabo, show back up October 25th and do a quick fly around. You will win.
Comment by the Patriot Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 10:58 am
I think it means that when one party has control of everything and just refuses to govern while the state goes to pieces, the other looks pretty good even if their candidate is unappealing to many voters and has a questionable grasp of the reality of the situation.
Comment by Excessively Rabid Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:00 am
===blame Alexi for Quinn’s problem===
You have trouble with reading comprehension. Read it again. S-L-O-W-L-Y this time. It says no such thing.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:04 am
The Dems haven’t even started scaring women and pet owners about Brady yet.
Comment by just sayin' Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:06 am
yawn…November is seven months away…how many US governors have over a 50% approval rating?…
Comment by Loop Lady Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:10 am
Rich
Yesterday you questioned me for saying the Gov results would be similar to the Senate ones.
Sen was 37-33
Gov is 43-33
I think I was reasonably close in my guess. I based it on Quinn’s approval which hadn’t changed much from Jan 27 and pegged him in the low 30’s like Alexi. Was a bit of a lowball guess on Brady though.
train111
Comment by train111 Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:11 am
This is bad news for Quinn as far as favorability goes but it’s not so scary for election purposes.
In general women and independents are very much undecided on Brady. As the election comes closer and more comes out on Brady this will change and will probably not be to Brady’s advantage (unless he completely changes his philosophy).
Also, the “undecided Democrats” are not pleased with Quinn but the vast majority will still vote for him.
It’s polling in April for a November election.
Comment by Ahoy Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:15 am
train111, I knew yesterday that it was a ten-point spread. The Senate race is far closer. That’s why I said to be cautious.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:16 am
===the vast majority will still vote for him. ===
The question is whether they’ll vote. That’s the problem for Democrats. The Dems who vote will mostly come home, but whether the party can get voters out of their homes and to the polls is the big question.
That’s what really happened to Dems in 1994. Their turnout was so depressed that the Repubs walked in.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:17 am
Well, Circkie, its early yet. The current employees who still have jobs after the Quinn regime purges probably won’t be better off under Brady but they probably won’t be that much worse off either.
On the other hand, if they don’t like what Quinn is doing in the meantime, I guess they could just have a rally and yell at him and he’ll flip flop for them.
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:19 am
High unemployment, deadbeat state government, school layoffs, Blago…., yeah, it should be a GOP year.
Brady has to tell himself every morning: Stand up straight, smile, don’t say anything scary or stupid.
That might be a tall order. Quinn will land a couple of haymakers before it’s all over. We’ll see if Brady can take a punch.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:22 am
===how many US governors have over a 50% approval rating?===
What a stupid point.
He’s at 25, not 45. Find me many other governors with approval ratings like that.
Sheesh. You sound just like Rod’s people in the lead-up to his arrest.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:22 am
If I’m a democrat what I am worried about right now is what happened in new jersey, massachusettes, and virginia where they thought that because of how much voters hated the gop over social issues and bush they wouldnt vote for them, only to discover after the fact that voters are willing to overlook social issues because they are so focused on the economy and wanting jobs and see the gop as better able to do that.
I am not a genius and I don’t get paid to do this for a living, but I would guess those numbers you see are suburban moderates and independents who have been moving democrat over the last decade here saying, we aren’t pleased and we are going another way.
Bob mcdonnell and christie won because they did well in the mark kirk areas (bergen county and northern virginia) of their states and if that’s whats happening this year, alexi and quinn are dead meat.
Comment by shore Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:33 am
The budgetocolipse is not going to help, jobs or no jobs. Also I think some Democrats are going to think “Hell George was a crook, but with him, Edgar and Thompson things were not as bad as during the Rod and Pat show”..
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:34 am
I would have thought that there would be some effort by the Green Party to take advantage of the large group of voters who have not decided because they do not care for the message of either major party candidate. But I guess not.
The other question/comment I have is: Is it possible that MJM has misread the voters, and while banking on the fact that they are all feeling as they did the last time he was faced with a tax increase and he lost his majority; he does not realize that doing something, like a tax increase, to fix the fiscal mess might actually be what the voters want? Could it be that he will lose some of his members and maybe the Governor’s seat because he DIDN’T do what was necessary, because he is afraid of what happened in the past when he DID what was necessary?
Comment by irish Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:42 am
===some effort by the Green Party===
They are complete amateurs who do not understand the gift they’ve been given. And that’s just part of it. It’s that wing of the Left which loves the romance of a losing cause. Kinda like Cub fans. lol
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:44 am
Please do not compare me to Rod’s people…I have my limits even with people I respect like you…:)
Comment by Loop Lady Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:46 am
===might actually be what the voters want?===
Show me one poll that has strong Illinois voter support for a straight-up income tax hike on everyone (not just confined to the well-to-do) to bail out the bureaucracy and I’ll eat my Sox cap.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:46 am
I am 52 years old…I have voted in every primary and election….since the age of 18. Yes…you are right…I really want no part of contributing to the “lesser of two evils” method of selecting whom to vote for….so as of right now…I plan not to vote. I think that’s horribly wrong….so someone convince me…and the others like me out there…why should I reconsider..and vote?
Comment by Vote? Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:50 am
Quinn and Alexi may have some negative synergism working against them that translates into many dems staying home on election day. They can’t vote for Quinn or Brady. They can’t vote for Alexi or Kirk. Throw in the budget, Madigan, school cuts, state police cuts, etc. and you have a disaster for dems.
Comment by vole Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:52 am
==why should I reconsider..and vote?==
If you live in Chicago you vote so you can get your garbage picked up and your street swept.
My suggestion is to write in Rod Blagojevich for governor.
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:53 am
Rich is right about 1994, democrats stayed home which allowed a little known“Village Idiot” to beat Ann Richards for Governor. In Illinois, democrats lost every statewide office and the General Assembly. I don’t know whether democrats nationwide will face a tsunami-like 1994 election, but Illinois democrats are in much worse shape than 1994 and are in for a good pounding at the polls.
Comment by Louis Howe Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:54 am
===Show me one poll that has strong Illinois voter support for a straight-up income tax hike===
There isn’t one that I know of. Because polls are only relevant to the question asked. For example if I walked up to 300 Illinois taxpayers and asked, “Are you in favor of a X% increase in your income tax?” the answer would be overwhelmingly “no.” So the pollster reports Illinois voters are solidly against income tax increases.
However, if I asked them ” Do you want a x% increase in everyone’s income taxes or do you want YOUR city to raise fees by x% and YOUR local property tax to go up x% and the local DMV office to be only open three days a week, and YOUR hospital and medical costs to go up because they are trying to keep their heads above water because the state isn’t paying their bills I think people might choose the income tax hike.
I have had this discussion with a lot of people. And once they understand the REALITY they understand the need for income tax increase and they are generally in favor of it. The problem is that this blog is the only place where reality is being faced.
Comment by irish Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:14 pm
Ouch. Hitting the Green Party and Cubs fans in the same comment. Foul! You’re going to spark unrest Rich.
That wheel tax story from Belleville yesterday ought to resonate pretty quickly if irish’s take has any legs.
Please run on raising taxes. Raise money to pump the ads on the backs of organized labor and wealthy people too. That says winner.
Comment by Brennan Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:20 pm
“Quinn’s best hope is that the economy turns around a bit and that he can make Brady look like evil incarnate…”—rich
no offense rich, but i think excessively rabid’s analysis of what is transpiring is spot on and a an accurate assessment. sure, quinn could TRY to make brady look like “the devil incarnate.” but why do that? quinn says that he (personally) doesn’t do negative campainging (lie) eventhough he already has against brady, sans campaign manager as you point out.
Comment by Will County Woman Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:21 pm
It is somewhat surprising that Brady is getting so much support given his politics but apparently people really are ready to fumigate.
Comment by dupage dan Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:22 pm
“It’s not easy being green”–Kermit T. Frog
With a long summer to go, it would seem that, rather than waste time and energy bloviating like a T-bag, a Green would spend time organizing and hop to it after Labor Day after letting the two mainstream candidates croak!
Comment by D.P. Gumby Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:47 pm
Bill, Blago may not be eligible to run for Governor by November.
Comment by GA Watcher Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 1:21 pm
Bad numbers for Quinn. But regarding the Illinois Republican party, the Abba Eban Quote “they never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity” is what Quinn may be banking on.
Comment by Bongo Furry Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 1:30 pm
Maybe Harold Washington was right about Quinn.
Comment by Ghost of John Brown Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:03 pm
imagine the ad showing Washington saying something then a Quinn issue flashes on the screen.
Comment by oneman Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:29 pm
I guess you’re right Rich, maybe we Greens really don’t understand the ‘gift’ we’ve been given, because honestly, I don’t remember ever getting any ‘gifts’. Everything we’ve accomplished has been a tooth and nail fight, and I attribute very little of it to luck — and yeah, we’re a bunch of amateurs, but who else would have the audacity to take up such a fight? D and R pols are too precious to challenge the status quo, quite frankly — even Claypool. (You know it’s less about principle and more about a calculation that Berrios is going to tank once people get their tax bills.)
As for the gift of corrupt and incompetent opponents you seem to be referring to, that’s not really a gift, because the more corrupt and incompetent Ds and Rs get, the more the growing number of politico-tainment reporters take them seriously and write off their opponents, even if their opponents would be a remarkable improvement.
So here we have this ridiculous poll…PPP left out a ballot-qualified candidate who, while he didn’t win, he did have statistically significant returns in the last election and has the potential to do better this time. Not only that, the candidates they did include range from unpopular to unknown. Yet, the Green candidate is still left out. Why? They know Whitney exists! Yet they’re still putting out garbage polls?
Comment by PFK Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:33 pm
it is clear that Quinn needs to fire his campaign manager….. oh wait….
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:34 pm
=== He’s at 25, not 45. Find me many other governors with approval ratings like that. ===
Schwarzenegger: 17% approval (March)
Oregon, Kulungowski: 34% (March)
Washington, Gregoire: 31% (March)
I’m not defending the Quinn campaign, I’m just saying he ain’t alone.
The Arnold, given his attempts to portray himself as a reformer and outsider, and his state’s economic woes, is probably the best comparison.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:05 pm
Fourth poll with Brady 10 points ahead.
Comment by Dnstateanon Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:05 pm
Not reflected in that poll is the closing week dynamic where the base of one side senses victory and the base on the other, sensing defeat does’nt work as hard, contribute as much, nor turn out to vote with the same intensity. Quinn will hit a few singles, Brady will make an error or two, and narrow the lead. However, in the closing days of the cycle, Republicans will sense victory after years in the wilderness and the DEMs, feeling the fatique of Blago et al., will resign themselves to defeat. I still say Brady by 5.
Comment by Cousin Ralph Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:10 pm
GA Watcher - Blago is already barred from running for Governor…or any other office in Illinois.
Comment by El Conquistador Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:19 pm
I was a little surprised that Quinn allowed IDOT to hire former Blago personnel chief and IDOC chief of staff…I thought he was trying to purge Blago hires
Comment by Streeterville Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:50 pm
Quinn has no respect for the african american community, he is yet to meet with african american organizations, has reduced the number of african americans in leadership and think Sheila Simon’s dead father can carry him over the finish line! he has time to correct this but seeing his behvior so far it is not likely.
Comment by Wow Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 8:34 pm
===
In general women and independents are very much undecided on Brady.
===
Yeah, but I’m pretty sure that the women’s vote will eventually lean toward Brady for reasons stated on earlier threads.
I also think that people are going to be looking for “comfort” in tradition, and the Brady’s will be able to provide that. Just a guess at this point, but I’m feeling pretty good about it.
Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 10:18 pm
Why does the insider conventional wisdom that says this November is 1994 all over again (Health care passed this time, HELLO!) and that Governor Brady will negotiate an income tax increase with Mike Madigan, and then Princess Lisa will ascend to the Governor’s throne in 2014 seem like Hillary Clinton’s “inevitability” strategy of 2006?
The tens of thousands of laid off teachers and other public employees, their families and their friends are not going to fall for that storybook ending now being written at their expense. Not everybody’s grooving on Mike Madigan’s idea of “an American vacation” collecting unemployment especially since the roots of this recession are widely known to be the fault of the leadership of the banking and real estate sectors.
Wake up and join the Coffee Party.
Comment by MathMan Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 5:55 am