Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Rasmussen: Brady leads Quinn 45-38

Posted in:

Illinois
Polls

* Another day, another bad news poll for Gov. Pat Quinn. Today’s result is from Rasmussen. Its early March results are in parentheses, preceded by yesterday’s Public Policy Polling results…

Bill Brady 45% (43%, 47%)
Pat Quinn 38% (33%, 37%)
Some Other Candidate 6% (N/A, 7%)
Not sure 9% (24%, 10%)

From the pollster…

Both candidates barely eked out victories in hard-fought party nomination battles. But Brady can already claim support from 78% of his GOP base, while Quinn attracts only 64% of Democrats… Voters not affiliated with either of the parties prefer Brady to Quinn by better than three-to-one.

* From the toplines…

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

38% Strongly approve
20% Somewhat approve (Total: 58%)
6% Somewhat disapprove
35% Strongly disapprove (Total: 41%)
1% Not sure

How would you rate the job Pat Quinn has been doing as Governor… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

9% Strongly approve
34% Somewhat approve (Total: 43%)
23% Somewhat disapprove
33% Strongly disapprove (Total: 56%)
2% Not sure

That’s a much higher approval rating for Quinn than PPP’s 25 percent. The difference may be due to Rasmussen offering intensity choices, while PPP just offered straight up approve/disapprove choices.

* Favorables…

Quinn is viewed very favorably by 13% of Illinois voters, while 28% view him very unfavorably. Just five percent (5%) have no opinion of the governor.

Nineteen percent (19%) have a very favorable view of Brady, and nearly as many (15%) regard him very unfavorably. But nearly one-out-of-five voters (18%) don’t know enough about him to have any kind of opinion.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

* Other questions…

Some people believe a federal law requiring every American to buy or obtain health insurance is unconstitutional. Some states have announced that they will sue the federal government to fight that requirement. Would you favor or oppose having your state sue the federal government to prevent it from becoming law?
40% Favor
47% Oppose
13% Not sure

Generally speaking, how would you rate the U.S. economy these days? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?
1% Excellent
8% Good
40% Fair
50% Poor
1% Not sure

Are economic conditions in the country getting better or worse?
36% Better
33% Worse
24% Staying the same
7% Not sure

Rasmussen puts the “should the state sue the federal government to overturn health care law” question into a national context…

Just 40% of Illinois voters think the state should sue the federal government, while 47% oppose the idea.

Nationally, 49% of voters favor their states suing the federal government over that requirement in the health care plan. Thirty-even percent (37%) oppose such a suit.

Methodology…

Illinois Survey of 500 Likely Voters Conducted April 5, 2010. Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

Thoughts?

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 10:44 am

Comments

I’d say Quinn is in trouble. The Brady campaign hasn’t had to run a single negative ad yet, and they’re up 7-10 points. And with 20,000+ teachers getting their pink slips in the past month, things will only get worse for Quinn in August, when school starts back up, and these teachers are unemployed.

Comment by Steve-O Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 10:54 am
He better get this construction season right. Get-a-building, Pat.

People with jobs and money to spend generally are happier, and make those around them happier, too. They’re less likely to lash out at incumbents.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 10:58 am
Wow, I’m still surprised by Brady doing so well. I guess I’m going to have to get used to it.

Quinn isn’t liked, so he is going to have to drag Brady down to beat him. We could be seeing a repeat of what Blagojevich did to Topinka four years ago, and that would suck.

Brady should be easy to paint into a corner, so Brady has to avoid corners throughout the campaign. His staff will have to defang Brady so that Quinn can only come up with what Brady has stated in the past to make Brady look evil. What Brady has to do is an Obama - talk as moderately as possible with as winning a personality as possible. Brady can’t make many mistakes.

The race should tighten, but right now it seems that Brady has the edge.

Obama’s popularity isn’t what it should be in Illinois. I expected better numbers than this for our native son. The health care numbers are also weak for Illinois. If Democrats wish to run the campaign they expected to run a year ago - they will lose. Voters have changed from 2008, and have strongly moved to the right. The uber-high anti-incumbant fervor remains and targeted at mostly Democratic politicians since we have the most to lose. Consequentially, this is not going to be pretty.

I still believe Quinn has the edge if he would get his act together and both campaign, and govern. He will need to do so to counter the bad economics which will remain during the summer - along with very high gas prices. He will have a very hot summer, and has to be ready to comeback during the final weeks of the campaign.

We really won’t know what is going to happen for Brady and Quinn probably until October. If Quinn can repeat what he did against Hynes, he might save himself if he doesn’t get help this summer.

Additionally, I expect anti-incumbant fever to increase. Why? Because we are seeing dozens of stupid campaign comments from pressurized incumbants hitting the news with “film at 11″. It doesn’t matter if it is one of your congresspeople, the anti-incumbant fever will effect all incumbants. If Hare is in trouble with his Charlie Cook [Dem +3] congressional district, then it is safe to say that any congressional district normally democratic by +3 is up for grabs. Anything less will be a GOP gain, at this time.

So, Bean is in trouble.
Foster is in trouble.
Halvorson is in trouble.

And Little Lip saved himself by voting against Obamacare.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 11:06 am
dear pat quinn: please start running a campaign. start with
Rich Miller’s advice and hire a campaign manager.

Comment by Amalia Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 11:07 am
I guess my only surprise is that I would have thought that Bill Brady would have been at least 15 points or more ahead of Pat Quinn? And, so much for taking for granted the idea that the minority vote and the union vote are always solidly behind the Democrat Party candidate. It would have been interesting to know what percentage of the 500 voters in this poll were union members or members of a racial minority?

Comment by Beowulf Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 11:08 am
The election is still Quinn’s to lose in Obama’s very blue home state.

Brady’s numbers probably reflect the fact that voters are irritated with Quinn for various reasons(tax increase, failure to pass tax increase, budget problems, threats to cut funding to this and that, flip-flopping, early release, retaining Blago hires,caving to employee union pressures, angry about threats to pensions, all sorts of things).

But most voters know little about Brady and when those devastating ads start coming out in the fall about his stances on social issues, they’re going to get energized.

Plus, the Dems probably will have a lot more money, especially as a priority for national Dems will be retaining Obama’s senate seat and some of that will wash over.

The wild card is the Blago trial. Impossible to predict the effect on Quinn, who likely picked Sheila so they can present themselves as the squeaky clean duo. Lots of pix of the late senator, etc. New, un-corrupt Democrats for a new age. Maybe it’ll work.

Don’t get me wrong. I think the best thing that could happen in this one-party state would be a Republican governor.A complete housecleaning and some real budget cuts, not the pretend ones our Pat offers. Sweep out most of the agency heads and put in folks who are interested in change and value for taxpayer dollars and who can impose change on the state’s sleepy civil service.

But I’m not optimistic.

Comment by cassandra Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 11:12 am
Amalia, I agree that Gov. Quinn should start running a campaign. Every week, May-Oct., he should air TV and radio ads that would state that, if he wins, he would propose increasing the income tax rate.

Comment by Conservative Veteran Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 11:17 am
I am surprised the lead is so small. 7% is nothing for a guy with taxes on his agenda. I think Quinn would be wrong to take Brady lightly but this is better than I thought it would be.

Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 11:36 am
Cassandra: You are right that the election will be Quinn’s to lose…you are wrong to think that Quinn had any sway whatsoever in Blago’s failed and utterly corrupt administration…he was not part of the cabal in any way, shape, or form on any given day…he was so locked out…Thank God!

Comment by Loop Lady Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 11:38 am
PQ ain’t got the mojo workin’ for him right now. He showed us he can fight hard when backed into a corner so I don’t put anything past him. VM is right about Brady - he better learn to focus his message and stay on it - avoid the gassing kittys legislation mess and keep his foot out of his mouth. PQ comes across all warm and fuzzy but should not be underestimated.

I wonder why PQ ain’t got a campaign manager? Is it because noone wants the job? Is it because PQ wouldn’t listed to one anyway? Maybe Sheila could wear 2 hats.

Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 11:41 am
Note to Brady, Don’t forget to hammer on the fact that Quinn strongly supported PB in both election campaigns and is on record making positive statements about RB during the second campaign knowing perfectly well that RB faced significant investigations into corruption.

Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 11:45 am
The only choice worse than Quinn is Brady… Rich Whitney looks better all the time.

Comment by Downstate Commissioner Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 12:00 pm
Not surprising. The last time Quinn displayed leadership and decisive action was when he took the “Gov. Rod Blagojevich” signs off the iPass lanes. Quinn failed on campaign reforms and failed to deliver a budget, and has created a situation where 20,000 teachers and public school employees might get laid off. And, other than news about layoffs, Blagojevich is still dominating the media. Quinn is simply not in control.

Comment by PFK Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 12:01 pm
=Another day, another bad news poll for Gov. Pat Quinn=
The lead in could have been, Good news pol for Sen Brady continues.

Comment by Joe Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 12:05 pm
==We could be seeing a repeat of what Blagojevich did to Topinka four years ago…==
That would take significant cash so I doubt it. Who will Quiin’s big donors be?
Triple J and Phineas? He’s screwed everybody else who might have thought of helping him.

Comment by Bill Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 12:18 pm
Loop Lady/Cassandra—If you think “The election is still Quinn’s to lose in Obama’s very blue home state,” you are both delusional. Quinn is an incumbent Governor with 95% name-id, running in an anti-incumbent off year election. His job disapproval rating is already at 56% and he’s proposed cutting education, the state’s most popular expenditure, by $1.3 billion in the coming school year. He’s on record for a 50% tax increase with zero chance of passing legislature, and instead, Madigan and Company will demand that he manage a state budget $13 billion underwater. As for “Obama’s very blue home state,” see recent Massachusetts and New Jersey results. This is a competency election and Quinn is losing that race, big time.

Comment by Louis Howe Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 12:30 pm
I would like to know how much of the support for Brady is support for Brady and how much is support for Not-Quinn. The conventional wisdom is that knowledge of Brady will decrease his support; it would be nice to have benchmarks.

Comment by D.P. Gumby Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 12:47 pm
Louis

Money, lots and lots of it.
Incumbency.
Social conservative opponent, not well known statewide, so current polls not terribly reflective of anything other than general irritation.

Actually, some political pollster opined on tV recently that presidential popularity is a significant predictor of off-year election results. So that could be another wild card, but I think Obama’s popularity will go up by the end of the year. The WH crew will do whatever it takes.

If only the state Dems could get that pesky Blago trial postponed…

Comment by cassandra Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 12:55 pm
Louis: Do you know who David Rosen is? Pat is way more electable with a big war chest…I think he will raise considerable sums of cash with which to get out a very unkind, but accurate slant on his competition…

Who’s bein’ delusional? If Blago can find a campaign manager, Pat sure as hell can…(Rod is SUCH a good listener doncha know? Ask his former legal counsel about this attribute…)

Pat basically is too much of a tightwad to hire a CM unless it becomes absolutely necessary…

Comment by Loop Lady Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 1:47 pm
LL, from what I’m getting, most don’t want the manager job. RRB didn’t listen except when it came to his campaign, when he was ready to do whatever it took to win. PQ doesn’t listen on anything.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 1:52 pm
Well Rich, at least Pat is consistent…

Have you ever had to deal with a stubborn old Irishman pol?

I know from personal experience that it would be easier to take your head and whack a basball bat on it several times/or until it hurts…

Comment by Loop Lady Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 2:01 pm
By mid-blago trial, Quinn will be lucky to have 28%

Comment by Park Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 7:41 pm
What’s the surprise? Quinn’s administation ala Blago’s administration is simply failing & falling apart. Quinn’s been the in the top seat for 1 year — 3 months & we’re no better, no path toward recovery & getting worse. State’s broke, can’t pay bills on time & no real solutions at any level in sight all while under the Dem’s for about 7-8 years. With the Blago trial looming look for these numbers to tank further. Things don’t staighten out otherwise they’ll be non existent. Quinn has not shown what a governor can do ….why give him a re-up ??

Comment by downstater Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 7:50 pm
Contrary to “Steve-O,” anybody who’s known Quinn for as long as I have KNOWS–he’s absolutely NOT in trouble. You NEVER count out the “Mighty Quinn!” (whether ahead early, behind early, or behind late–as premature Nominee Hynes’backers might just recall a tad)? Tsk, tsk, it’s sooo early in this thing, most Illinoisans have barely woken up from the February election hangover! Seven months ’till Election Day is close to an eternity in politics. Most interesting stats: everybody already knows PQ but ALREADY nearly one in five view Brady VERY UNfavorably (plus how many more just UNfavorably) with ANOTHER one in five who don’t yet know enough about him….Just wait ’till they do!!! (And the Dems will see to dat)!–including the cries from the “feeling like they’re discriminated-against 1/2 of the electorate” once THEY do (women, of course, not deserving of equal pay, right, Bill, let alone ANYone to an increase in that astronomically high, wealth-inducing minimum wage???)Oh seven LONGGGG more months for all those eager to learn more all about Illinois’ Mr. New “Nice Hair Cut Guy” from people like the Guv’s and Party’s (quite brilliant) pick, Southern Illinoisan, highly articulate FEmale Lt.Gov. nominee with that all-revered last name…that is unless the puppies’ and kitties’agonozing screams from Bill’s proposed GAS CHAMBERS aren’t LOUDER and attract more attention 1ST!!!

Comment by Just The Way It Is One Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 8:17 pm
Loop Lady….Money will not determine the winner of this high profile race. Brady will have enough money to get his message out and defend himself against any negative Quinn ads. The social issues you care about won’t mean squat in this economic environment. If Quinn isn’t perceived as capable of resolving Illinois’s fiscal problems, get used to Gov. Bill Brady

Comment by Louis Howe Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 9:26 pm
Voters know Blago/Quinn willjust continue to screw up the state. Brady has proven he will do what he says the voters seem to want to give Brady a chance to try to fix the Budget and give business a chance to create jobs.

Comment by Dnstateanon Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 10:05 pm
Interesting, Dnstateanon. “Many players on different stages” and therefore difficult to figure out whom to trust nowadays to get the messages through.

Tenure and proximity mean nothing in politics, as well all know.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 10:40 pm
Quinn, though a decent guy I’m sure… just isn’t up for the job. He’s had many problems, many internal personnel issues with some of his “admin.” own making & has trouble re-bounding. There is no clear direction here, no plan it seems, no moves to do some of the things he claimed the day he took this spot let alone the fiscal crisis’that’s continuing to be & is a hugh problem. He’s in the “big chair” 1 year -3 months & he owns these problems now. The guy has held higher office in other capacities before so this isn’t really new. He’d have basically 6 months to start moving ahead & with a legislature who’s majority is of his own party to make head way on these problems. If he can’t implement policies or ideas & can’t build coaltions with the legislature controlled by his own party ; how effective can or has he been. I don’t know if you’d see recovery in 6 years let alone 6 months as screwed up as it really is? Given the shenaigans going on in Washington isn’t helping matters or the cause either.

Comment by downstater Friday, Apr 9, 10 @ 1:22 am