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Mr. conventional wisdom himself, Larry Sabato, has some thoughts on the Illinois governor’s race.

After a 26-year run for GOP control of the governorship in Illinois, one would have thought that the first Democratic governor would almost automatically get eight years. It may still happen that way, and Gov. Rod Blagojevich is a slight favorite for a second term. But underline slight. Just about everyone seems mad at him now, and many question his executive abilities. Lucky for him that Illinois has taken a sharp turn toward the Democrats, and that the Republicans are deeply split ideologically in their choice of a nominee. There’s no question that the strongest GOP opponent for Blagojevich would be state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka.

Your thoughts?

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 8:00 am

Comments

Rod is toast.

Comment by Anon Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 8:03 am
I find it odd, that even after a poll by the St. Louis Post Dispatch/Southern Illinoisan showed Rod would hammer Judy they are still touting her as the best chance to beat Rod. Especially since the poll did not consider the other candidates.

It is straight wag the dog politics by Judy. She keeps saying she is the only chance to beat rod hoping to make it so.

Judy will be badgered into submission by Rod by November, this is why we have to pick someone else. Look at the polls. Judy has stalled out if not dropped a couple of points. Brady is moving.

Even if Judy wins both the primry and the general, will the state or the party really be better off? We have the answer to at least one question due to her tenure as party chariman.

Comment by the Patriot Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 8:30 am
No, he’s not toast. Unless he gets indicted, which, although I’m reasonably sure he’s guilty, is a very very long shot, he is going to be very tough for JBT to beat, assuming she can get past Oberweis in the primary. And Oberweis is unlikely to be gracious in defeat, so his supporters and their ilk may well sit out the election.

There are significant (in numbers) groups who will vote for Blago no matter what he does including wealthy white urban liberals, blacks, and, probably Latinos, given Blago’s strong implied support for illegal immigration via almost-free medical care, affordable housing, and free state university education targeted at legal and illegal Latinos. Not to mention all those six figure state jobs he’s been doling out to them.

That leaves the non-minority Cook suburbs, collars and Downstate for JBT, but it may not
be enough. Expect Blago to start showering our money on them this year if they are showing signs of being restive. I for one have been encouraging my Oak Park neighbors to at least act restive because otherwise, despite an almost unanimous Democratic 2002 vote, Oak Park (a close-in Chicago area suburb) will have gotten nothing out of Blago since 2002 in the way of payback money or services.

Comment by Cassandra Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 8:31 am
Polling shows a pretty consistent “anybody but Rod” vote out there ready to be plucked by an opponent.

JBT and Brady I think are the only two with a chance at that, and while she remains the frontrunner, I have to wonder if that Fed investigation and her ties with George Ryan won’t be instant fodder for Rod and his money immediately after the primary.

I’m starting to like Brady if for nothing else, he looks the part, sounds the part, and doesn’t appear to have the baggage Judy does.

Wouldn’t it be funny for Rod’s opponent to have better hair than he does?!

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 8:39 am
My thoughts on this subject were pretty much best described in the commentary I prepared for the Illinois Committee for Honest Government’s Distinguished Service Awards Program Book (which was issued on December 11, the day before the start of candidate petition filing). I present it as follows (modified only lightly to account for subsequent developments, such as Edwin Eisendrath’s formal entry into the Democratic gubernatorial race and the endorsement of Eisendrath by the Illinois Committee for Honest Government):

WHY ROD BLAGOJEVICH MUST BE OUSTED

At the time of the last ICHG Distinguished Service Awards Reception held in March 2005, we explained why we wanted the leaders of the Illinois Democratic Party to rise up and challenge Governor Rod Blagojevich in his bid for a second term. Unfortunately, our arguments (and those of other reform-minded individuals and organizations) fell on deaf ears when it came to the Democratic leadership, as they (in public at least) began to blissfully line up behind a sitting governor with huge unpopularity ratings, even among his fellow Democrats.
It is with profound sadness that the Illinois Committee for Honest Government cannot endorse Blagojevich for a second term as Governor. The ICHG, and its members as individuals, have had a long and intimate association with Blagojevich. From the time he was still private attorney Rod Blagojevich, to being State Representative Blagojevich, to being Congressman Blagojevich, he seemed to represent some of our highest hopes and dreams. We believed in Rod Blagojevich, but he conned and used us, just like he used his supporters in Downstate Illinois and the allies of his father-in-law, Chicago Alderman Richard Mell (33rd). Without the assistance of all of these people, Blagojevich would have never been elected Governor. His betrayal of them set a new political low, even by the standards of this state.
Rod Blagojevich has lied on so many occasions it would be too time consuming to list them in this commentary. He is a sociopath and has been pathological in his lying and in the disrespecting of his former supporters.
Rod Blagojevich has forgotten about his friends and supporters who brought him to the Governor’s Mansion. (Of course, given the fact that Blagojevich usually avoids Springfield in general, and the Governorâ€™s Mansion in particular, as if they were toxic waste dumps, his attitude toward past allies may at best be described as consistently bizarre.) He has continually disregarded his supporters and forgotten his promises. Blagojevich governs by press conference and does not do the hard day-to-day tasks of actually governing.
There are many problems facing this state. They include insufficient economic growth, the flight of businesses leaving the state, significant pockets of unemployment and underemployment, and the chronic problems facing our educational system from pre-school thru our state university system. While Blagojevich makes a perhaps technically correct statement that he has not raised income taxes (which would have been the sensible and least regressive way of dealing with the fiscal mess that was left over from the previous administration), he has chosen to raise virtually every other fee and license available. In doing so, he chose a most regressive way of funding the stateâ€™s operations, placing the burden most on those who can least afford it, which ironically are those who elected him in the first place.
Rod Blagojevich ran on a platform of reform and changing business as issue. To some, he has become a thinner George Ryan with better hair. To others, Blagojevich has become a second Dan Walker. Neither comparison is justification for a second term. The corruption in the Blagojevich administration is like a cancer that will likely not stop anytime soon, unless the voters force a stop to it in 2006.
After getting party leaders like House Speaker Michael Madigan (the Chairman of the State Democratic Party) and Senate President Emil Jones to endorse his campaign this past fall (no doubt in part to Blagojevichâ€™s campaign war chest, fattened by contributions from numerous businesses and individuals who have state contracts), it seemed that no Democrat would rise up against Blagojevich. But thankfully one man has shown the courage to make that needed challenge, to give Illinois voters a choice between a return to Republican control of state government and another four years of the failes Blagojevich policies. The Illinois Committee for Honest Government has endorsed that man, Edwin Eisendrath, the former Alderman of Chicago’s 43rd Ward who served as the regional director for the Department of Housing and Urban Development in the Clinton administration.
It is clear that Blagojevich and his cronies see Eisendrath as a real threat. That was made evident when it was learned that one of Blagojevichâ€™s most loyal lackeys in the General Assembly, State Senator Carol Ronen (7th), was behind a letter-writing scheme to pressure Eisendrath out of the race. The scheme quickly blew up in the faces of Ronen and the others responsible for it, as legitimate progressives in the state, as they received the E-mail message, passed the information along to Eisendrath.
Ronen is politically a small pain in the neck. It is the need to rid the state of Rod Blagojevich that must take priority. If Blagojevich is not stopped on March 21, then it bodes ill for a good friend of the ICHG, Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn. We strongly support Quinn, a recent recipient of our Distinguished Service Award, in the March Primary. But after March 21, the provisions of the Illinois Constitution chain Quinn to whoever wins the Democratic Gubernatorial nomination. Even though Quinn has done a fine job as Lieutenant Governor (including speaking out on the needs to help the families of Illinois servicemen while they are deployed in Iraq or Afghanistan), Blagojevichâ€™s shortcomings and failing make it impossible for us to endorse a Blagojevich-Quinn ticket in the General Election.
In the weeks ahead we will also be looking with interest at the developing race for Governor in the Republican Primary. If Eisendrath is unwilling or unable to knock off Blagojevich in the March Primary, the victor on the Republican side will be the stateâ€™s last hope to avoid four more disastrous years of house of cards budgets and disgraceful leadership that tries to run this state by press releases and polling. This state needs someone better than that as its Governor, and deserves better than that. Itâ€™s clearly time to say â€œNOâ€ to another four years of Rod Blagojevich.

RANDALL SHERMAN
Secretary/Treasurer, Illinois Committee for Honest Government
Chicago

Comment by Randall Sherman Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 8:55 am
I think Brady is going to be the dark horse and a surprise for everyone.I think these poll people need to spend a few days talking to the real world.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 8:58 am
At this point in time, I would have to say that it looks like another 4 year term for Blago. I am a conservative GOP. If I am typical of other moderately conservative GOP (not the ultra-conservative segment), Judy Barr Topinka will get far fewer votes than Andy McKenna thinks she will. I would rather fail to cast a vote than to vote for her. She is thought by many like myself to simply be an extension of the George Ryan faction that still contaminates the Illinois Republican Party. If Brady, Oberweis, or Gidwitz win the GOP primary, Rod will have a fight on his hands in November. If Judy is the GOP victor in March, Rod can save the money in his campaign war chest rather than spend it for the November general election. He will win it due to the failure of a large percentage of GOP conservative voters failure to vote in the gubernatorial race. I would rather have Blago as Governor than a mini-Ryan back in power. Other GOP conservative friends feel the same way. McKenna misread this one badly.

Comment by Beowulf Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 9:11 am
Looks like Sabato may finally have something right. As long as the pundits think AccordianGal and BrickheadJoe–The Family Loan Schmoo are the top of the heap the other GOPs get lost in the shuffle. That means it curtains for RonnieG, Termite”BillBrady and ChopperJim.

Comment by Reddbyrd Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 9:19 am
Beowulf I will tell you what I have told others.So you are telling me that you are really a Democrat.If this guy gets in after what he has done to this state and you refuse to do anything about it whatever he does you have no right to complain.I was not a Ryan fan but his problems came out of the Sec. of States Office not the Governor’s job.Now take a hard look at what a mess this guy has done as a governor after promising to change.I am a GOP conservative and like you a lot of my friends are and we plan on voting Republican and doing what we can to get our agenda to be put forward.A lot of this starts with our state legislature which when Blago wants something he gets his pen out and goes around the legislature.This is the first governor to play dictator and get his way by governoer’s decree.I don’t know if you have noticed but this governor and his people don’t even want to talk to you if you are a Republican.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 9:29 am
Sentiment with the republican rank and file is jbt has lost momentum and brady is closing. not sure if he has the money and time to beat jbt in primary. he is the best option for gop against blago. with jbt conservatives sit out the election.

Comment by Ron Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 9:31 am
Who are they polling? I never receive one of these polls. Plus, with so many people on the Do Not Call List (are pollers exempt?)and homes that only use cell phones …. I just don’t know of anyone that answers these poll calls. In my house, if the caller ID doesn’t say who is calling, we let the machine pick it up.

Then, there is my crazy uncle who answers every phone call and keeps the person on the phone as long as possible and gives them bogus information.

Comment by shelbyville Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 9:33 am
Well, much as I’d like it, I don’t think Rod is toast:

1) 14MM - it buys a lot of feel good ads, as well as attack ads. A lot of people make their decision based on the last 4 weeks of ads. Rod has enough for 8 weeks (or more).

2) Clinton Playboook. Rod still seems to be using it. Now, he doesn’t call the plays as well as the master, but they are still good ones.

He is building a case of “here is what I did”
and “I did these good things WITHOUT raising your taxes”.

He’s also served notice to the small but always voting subgroups that HE is on THEIR side. So he gets the benefit of their turnout, without any high profile battles to associate him with their drawbacks.

Is he beatable? Sure. Will it take a strong campaign plan, very well executed to do it?

You bet.

Comment by Pat Collins Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 9:33 am
I confess to not reading Randall’s drivel. Fortunately not many other people will read it either. His is just another fringe group trying to get some kind, any kind of media play. It is not working. I, too, hope that Brady wins the primary. That would give the voters in the general a real choice. Red vs Blue, Haves vs have nots, real dems vs real repubs.. I think we all know what side of Pat Buchannan’s culture war we are on and a Rod vs Brady race would settle the question in Illinois once and for all.
All of the other candidates are fringe wackos like Randall who stand no chance and have no credibility with Illinois voters.
Judy=Rod.
If she wins,we can’t lose.
Bring it on, if possible.

Comment by Bill Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 9:36 am
I might add that some of Sabato’s info is based on the last election climate which we saw Keyes,Jim Ryan which sounds real close to the other Ryan and we ran in droves.Well a lot of us feel like Kotter and see the repub sign that says WELCOME BACK.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 9:44 am
Ron - who are the republican rank & file? Nobody watched the repub debate, the newspapers in their coverage talked primarily about JBT and Oberweis. I really think the Brady campaign believes what it reads on these blogs as being representative of the general public opinion. The problem with believing your own press is remembering that it is in fact merely “your own” and not that of the larger public.

Comment by DuPage Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 9:53 am
I’m a baby boomer who has never cast a republican vote in a gubernatorial or presidential election. That will change in ‘06 whether the GOP candidate is Topinka (my preference) or Brady.

Comment by Traitor Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 9:55 am
The Patriot, Cassandra â€“ with all due respect, I think you are both dead wrong about the Dispatch poll and the lack of support that Topinka will draw from former Oberweis supporters. A careful analysis of that poll (which is pretty consistent with other recent polls) shows that Topinka is still the best chance the GOP has, albeit perhaps not the only. My apologies to Rich, but I did a whole post on this idea a few weeks ago at
Illinoize - http://capitalfax.blogspot.com/2006/01/playing-percentages.html#links

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 10:08 am
It can be broken down very easily. Judy will run the state much like Rod. She will get beat up by Madigan and Jones, and even the Republican legislators don’t support her. Even if Judy win, everybody R and D alike lose. The state will be on hold for four years. The only chance is a real republican who will rally the minority in the legislature, but deal with the Democrats in a respcted manner. Brady is the only one who can pull it off. JBT, OB and Gitwitz, even if elected will not garner support by the republicans or respect of the Democrats. Wake up Illinois this is our last chance for both sides to get something meaningful out of the next 4 years.

Comment by the Patriot Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 10:19 am
Sadly I agree with Sabato.

Rod has turned a sure thing into a close race with his arrogance, ineptitude and repeated scandals.

Nevertheless, Edwin has run an invisible primary campaign that will likely amount to little more than a speed bump in March.

The Republican party is still suffering a hangover from George Ryan. I don’t see any of the conservatives connecting with general election voters and JBT is the wrong person to capitalize on Rod’s corruption problems.

I think Rod will win primarily because of the quality of opponents he has drawn. Great for Rod and bad for the rest of us, Democrats and Republicans alike.

Comment by Navin Johnson Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 10:31 am
I am not a big Judy fan… or even a Judy fan at all. But, by November, it is highly likely that I will be the biggest Judy fan in the world. Simply because of the Governor Hair. People who are more conservative than me might sit out the race or vote 3rd party, but I would bet that they will be along side me. They will hopefully fold under the pressure of voting for the lesser of two evils… which I hope Judy will be…

At the same time, if Oberweis wins the nomination, he will have relatively low support outside of his base and will probably lose to Blago easily. Brady could beat Blago, but he will get 3rd in the primary. And of course Gidwitz, who will come in fourth in the primary and could have a chance at coming in 3rd if he would have a grassroots effort and an organized campaign. Maybe, maybe not.

Comment by Lovie's Leather Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 10:32 am
I think that fact that IL has been leaning more to the Dems lately might hurt JBT in the general more than it helps … I don’t know. Seems like she might get her base, which is a unique one at that, but that might be all she gets. And that won’t be enough to win.

I must admit that it gets old hearing Oberweis’ people on here complaining about Brady’s people … how about you start touting your candidate instead of complaining that Brady has supporters who also happen to exist in the blogosphere? We’re all here to share ideas, participate in the discussion and hope to influence some opinions. I think that can be done with some civility and without constant unfounded attacks. But that’s just IMHO.

A lot of the talk lately, because of timing, has centered on the funding issue. Keep in mind a lot of these candidates had issues early on with fundraising because Edgar took so long to decide not to run and LaHood played the game for a bit too. July-December is a campaign for the pundits. January to March is a campaign for the public. And then it really gets fun. So, to satisfy my curiosity, I wanted to see where cadidates really stood as of the Dec. reporting period.

BRADY
Funds available at the beginning of the reporting period $592,731.85
Total Receipts $439,411.37
Subtotal $1,032,143.22
Total Expenditures $641,247.56
Funds available at the close of the reporting period $390,895.66

GIDWITZ
Funds available at the beginning of the reporting period $2,692,379.90
Total Receipts $2,571,959.60
Subtotal $5,264,339.50
Total Expenditures $5,076,793.34
Funds available at the close of the reporting period $187,546.16

RAUSCHENBERGER
Funds available at the beginning of the reporting period $588,431.02
Total Receipts $363,048.08
Subtotal $951,479.10
Total Expenditures $803,580.34
Funds available at the close of the reporting period $147,898.76

OBERWEIS
Funds available at the beginning of the reporting period $708,423.87
Total Receipts $738,662.44
Subtotal $1,447,086.31
Total Expenditures $988,725.88
Funds available at the close of the reporting period $458,360.43

TOPINKA
Funds available at the beginning of the reporting period $1,400,319.97
Total Receipts $454,384.81
Subtotal $1,854,704.78
Total Expenditures $451,620.79
Funds available at the close of the reporting period $1,403,083.99
———————
So, unless my math is “fuzzy” as of December (BEFORE most of the public really started paying attention and BEFORE the first televised debate) … Brady had more than the IL Do-Si-Do Team combined (Gidwitz gets about 2 % points for each million he spends …
)had left to spend … had about the same as Obe-one-Family Taxpayer Network had left to spend, and was trailing only JBT in money in the bank to spend. And of course, she hadn’t spent much since it doesn’t take money to do nothing.

So it looks to me like this is a pretty open race … and it looks like Brady has as good a shot as anyone.

Comment by YNM Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 10:42 am
Your math is fuzzy, YNM.

You forgot about Gidwitz’s investments. That gave him $2 million on hand. Same goes for Oberweis. He had almost $900K.

And you have to look beyond the toplines to the actual reports, particularly Brady’s spending.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 10:46 am
dupage- talking with republican precinct workers in voters in southwestern illinois. when judy announced they felt she had it locked up. now they feel judy is not doing as well as they anticipated and feel brady is the answer. judy is not meeting her expectation level. oberweis support from prior supporters is on the decline.

Comment by Ron Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 10:48 am
So, if Gidwitz spends that 2M that should get him up to 12-13 in the polls, at his current pace.

and it looks like Oberweis owes himself about 1.2 million?

I’ve looked at the actual reports … but you’ll need to clarify what you are referring to I guess … my math is just fuzzy.

Comment by YNM Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 10:51 am
The problem is he’s paying his fundraiser way too much and he’s top-heavy with staff.

And I’ve seen a real campaign poll recently, can’t tell you yet what it is, but Gidwitz is close to what your number was. Brady not so much.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 10:55 am
But Rich, if you look at the statement that Oberweis filed, it says 300k was paid back to Oberweis.

Comment by Anon Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 10:56 am
YNM
You did not look at Oberweis close enough, there is $340,000 in the investments line that can and will be used that brings it up to $890,000 nice try Senator.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 11:05 am
i didn’t know i gave a number for brady in the polls? did i? i was simply saying that the money argument many are making doesn’t carry much weight … dollars doesn’t equal voters necessarily.

Comment by YNM Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 11:06 am
anon 11:05 … rich already pointed that out, but neither of you have responded to the facr he owes himself an icecream truck full of money.

Comment by YNM Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 11:08 am
It’s not like he owes a bank the money. If he wins, it all gets paid back. If he loses, easy come easy go.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 11:13 am
agreed … but it still points to the fact it’s a self-funded campaign which does little to engage the voter or move towards a grassroots campaign. not saying it’s good or bad, just pointing it out. IN SUMMARY>>> I don’t think finances can be used as the determining factor in this primary … there are too many other intangibles. That’s it, really. Nothing more, nothing less. I think it’s a wide open race.

Comment by YNM Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 11:16 am
If Brady can get a handle on his structural spending problems, I would give you some points. If he doesn’t, then I wouldn’t. lol

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 11:20 am
If a candidate wants to win, that person needs to give the moderate Dems and independents a reason to vote for him/her. Not being Blago is a good start, but they need to articulate how they will do better than the failed and corrupt “leadership” we’ve experienced so far. Unless someone starts doing this soon Blago not only gets a free ride but also keeps enough in his warchest to start being a national player in ‘08. I have to admit he is doing a very good job of positioning himself for that so far.

Comment by Bluefish Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 11:26 am
it’s ok if i get no points … i had none to start with and haven’t spent a dime

Comment by YNM Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 11:31 am
I hate to admit it, but it looks like we will have another 4 years of Blago!!

Comment by Tim (rum n' coke) Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 12:27 pm
“If he wins, it all gets paid back.”
Not necessarily true…I think you need to explain that a little better.

“And Iâ€™ve seen a real campaign poll recently, canâ€™t tell you yet what it is, but Gidwitz is close to what your number was. Brady not so much.”
Rich, I don’t doubt that you have some inside information, but to call the poll you saw “real” begs the question…which polls are fake? I didn’t see any numbers listed above, so what numbers for Brady were “not so much”? 10%? 20%? That statement also needs a little explanation.

As a side note, does anyone honestly believe that Mr. Family Taxpayer Network or Mr. Wish I Had As Much As Corzine to Buy This Seat Like He Did can TRULY win in November. If you say yes, and I am assuming that someone will, please justify how the votes will fall in favor of either…and don’t say that the “anyone but Blago” vote will be enough…provide some real issues and policy please.

Comment by the wonderboy Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 12:34 pm
It seems to me that some of the money he owes himself might be for office space.The campaign address is Ice Cream Drive
YNM
The best grassroots campaign was the Fitz 1998 race. It still cost him 3 million, funny he self funded and still won. Some might say he was able to do what had to be done because he self funded and owed nothing to anyone.
If you knew how to read D2’s you can see that Oberweis IS running a grassroots campaign. He has used direct mail, put together a statewide organization has alot of printing costs, he paid over $30,000 to the post office. Grassroots does not mean no money it means reaching out to groups that are organized for an issue the campaign agrees with and hopes to get them to help. Part of that is mailing lists to send issue mail to.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 12:41 pm
Anon 12:41
For starters, perhaps you should gain a better understanding of the meaning of grassroots before you preach to others. Large printing costs and postal bills do not mean that Obe is running a grassroots campaign…just that he is sending A LOT of mailings and putting up A LOT of signs in locations which are questionable at best. I will grant you that he may be running some form of grassroots movement, but your superior D2 reading ability (where exactly does that appear on a resume?) did not tell you that.

By the way, who ever said that grassroots meant no money? I didn’t see that written above at all.

Just my 2 cents: Fitz may have had a great grassroots movement, but please don’t call it the best. While I know that this is focused on Illinois politics, there is a world beyond these political boundaries and you should read about a guy named Wellstone…he was the master of grassroots.

Comment by the wonderboy Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 12:50 pm
Going back to the original question, with the continuing divisions of the GOP statewide, a governor who by any other measure should lose his reelection bid may still win. In any other state he would be toast right now, in Illinois, he still can pull it off?

We Republicans the past few years have not only been divided ideologically to the point where the divisions find it difficult to work with each other, Republicans have also tended to outthink themselves and outsmart themselves. The classic example is the Alan Keyes fiasco but there are other examples even on local levels.

In my Lake County, the GOP is fractured and divided like no one has ever seen. While the Lake County GOP Chairlady publicly endorses Senator Geo-Karis’ opponent, at the Lake County Central Comittee meeting this Wednesday many Township Chairmen angrily and loudly objected, and the conservative Republican Assembly members in attendance also chimed in with their thoughts. A three way split in the party in Lake County isn’t pretty but it seems to mirror the GOP statewide. Bickering instead of working to retake or retain seats is the rule of the day not only in my county, but seemingly statewide with the GOP.

Maybe we Republicans need to take one more electoral beating before we all wake up.

Louis G. Atsaves

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 12:56 pm
Here’s a poll I’d like to see:

How enthusiastic are you about the prospect of another 4 years of blago? Same question about JBT. If either broke 20% with “enthusiastic” + “very enthusiastic” combined I’d be surprised.

Comment by 6 Degrees of Separation Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 1:14 pm
anon 12:41
i’m not sure you read my comments correctly, or maybe i didn’t communicate very well … maybe if i would have put it in D2 format it would have made more sense, since apparently that is your expertise … are you sitting in that ice cream drive office as we speak?

i never said grassroots and self-funded campaigns were polar opposites … but i do think there are at times some correlations … but sure, you can win being self-funded and you can lose being grassroots … i was just making some observations, not stating absolute truths.

but i do take issue with your definition of a grassroots campaign. based on your definition AOL ran the best grassroots campaign ever, not Fitz … i mean AOL has mailed out BILLIONS of their CDs through direct mail … and i’m not sure printing costs mean grassroots either …

i always thought grassroots needed more evidence than a financial statement … like friend-to-friend, word-of-mouth, momentum and traction among the public … that kind of thing. and of course, connecting with the voters helps do that too. i’m sure that the milkman’s blog is helping him do that … oh wait, he doesn’t even have one.

i don’t mind you disagreeing with me, but statements like “if you knew how to read a D2″ don’t accomplish much and get us off the issue … which i’ve stated over and over … sabato claimed “Thereâ€™s no question that the strongest GOP opponent for Blagojevich would be state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka.” … and i disagree with that. i think the race is still wide-open and a plethora of pieces of evidence point to that.

Comment by YNM Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 1:39 pm
Until Illinois Republicans recognize that they represent Illinois’ ‘Natural Majority’ and stop bickering about minutia and personalities, they are doomed to wallow in divided paralysis.

As Karl Rove recently observed, “Four decades ago, the Republican Party was relegated to the wilderness - and today Republicans control the White House, the Senate, and the House; a majority of governorships; and in the last several elections, more state legislative seats than in 80 years.”

The reason for that sucess is simple. The Republican Party is the party of ideas and those ideas fuel success. The Republican Party’s ideas solve real problems rather than promoting destructive ideologies. We must make the public debate in Illinois about ideas, and stop framing it about personalities and emotions. Liberals in Illinois are a minority, and their leaders, like Rod Blagojevich, are increasingly driven to governing by executive order and activist judicial fiat rather than by public consensus. They gain hollow credibility only from liberal media ideologues.

History shows that when Republicans stick to issues, they win elections. And when liberals resort to ad hominem attacks and deception in order to hide their minority views, they lose elections.

Illinois Republicans must make every voter recognize that there are deep differences in opinion between them and liberal Democrats. Illinois Republicans must continue to confront the current and future problems our state faces with fresh ideas, and show how wrong Governor Blagojevich’s failed liberal Democrat policies really are.

Republican Primary Election debate should be about who can best govern with ideas… ideas that solve real problems, with our economy, our educational systems, our healthcare systems, and our families. We must also recognize which candidate’s ideas best address natural or terrorism disaster preparedness issues.

Comment by donchicago48 Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 1:43 pm
Brady’s recent endorsement by Rep. Mike Bost and Sen. Dave Luechtefeld in Carbondale will help him tremendously down here deep in Southern Illinois. Both of them had previously been on the record for Rauschy.

It’s not so much that they will bring x number of voters to the polls, but the front-page publicity it spurred revealed to others that Brady has a real shot and that it’s OK to support him.

In other words, we don’t have to vote for Topinka just because she’s the front-runner.

To be honest, I like Topinka. Her spunk and personality actually plays well down here which is amazing because the same attitude from any other Chicago politician would turn everyone off.

Still, she’s more moderate on social issues than I would like. If she’s the candidate in November against Rod I will have no problem supporting her, but if there’s an alternative in the primary that could still make a good General Election candidate than I think I will choose that person.

I also like Oberwiess but he doesn’t have the mainstream conservative GOP support down here. The legislator’s endorsement for Brady shows that he has.

Plus, I really liked Brady’s tax termite commercial. It resonated. Gidwitz’ ads never have.

Comment by Down in Egypt Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 1:56 pm
wonder
If you have worked on a campaign you know what and how money should be spent, then look to see if it is. Direct mail is one of the corner stones of a grassroots campaign and signs (not as much)
The reason I said no money is the brady campaign people are saying that they are running a grassroots campaign so they don’t need as much money.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 2:04 pm
Not much has changed in the GOP race, except the relative positions of Brady and Oberweis, with Brady creeping up.

JBT has not come out of the box strongly, as many predicted would happen. Judy relies far too much on trusted cronies, who are OK on day to day stuff, but not Campaign Manager material. JBT is treading water, but if she gets any semblance of an organization together in the next weeks, it is “game over.”

Oberweis is the man with some problems. He has spent the money, he has the organization in place, but not much is happening for him, other than his 22% or so base he always gets in every losing effort. Brady has him out-charmed on the Right, and Judy holds the Center and Left (such as exists in the GOP), and Jim’s negatives are way too high. The negativity of the Roeser crowd now permeates the campaign, and not in a good way. Confidence in Jim’s ability to pull this off is waning fast, as he has not been able to advance beyond his base, and more and more of that base is tempted by Brady, the “New Kid in Town” for Conservatives.

Yet the Brady “blog cheering section” strikes me as wishful thinking at this point, though change is possible. He does not have much of an organization, does not have as much in the Bank, and, Rich has pointed out, other structural problems. I still think Brady has a lot of “potential upside” that Oberweis does not, and will pass Oberweis. But he has a long way to go to catch Judy, or beat Blago. But it certainly is not impossible.

It is difficult to know why Ron Gidwitz and Steve Rauschenberger are still in this race. Five million in spending without significant movement in the polls should the the Gidwitz brain trust that their hoped for “March Miracle” just will not happen. After all that Ron Gidwitz has done for Illinois and the GOP, he deserves a lot better. But he is beginning to remind me of Bob Dole in ‘96, who stubbornly wanted his last shot at the Big Prize, even when he should have known to walk away.

Right now it is Judy, with Brady the only other.

Comment by Bubs Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 2:17 pm
Judy would agree to the last post. She will start reacting to Brady, and an argument could be made she already is. Gidz has seen some movement, but only in the city due to a mass amount of money. He can’t beat judy in Chicago and can get anything downstate.

Don’t know who said it above, but Judy does not play well downstate. The only people down here who will vote for her are Democrats and republicans who have drank from the “she is our only hope to beat the hair” kool aid.

judy is not moderate she is a card carrying liberal. Pro-abortion and an Advocate for gay rights is not moderate, it is liberal. You don’t ride with Pride in the Chicago every year and seriously expect people to believe you are “moderate.”

If you think Judy is moderate, I have some property in Williamson County on Lake Michigan I’ll sell you for a song.

Comment by the Patriot Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 3:04 pm
Sorry last post should read Gidz Can’t get anything downstate.

Comment by the Patriot Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 3:06 pm
Patriot, I keep hearing that downstate stuff on JBT, but it’s from Oberweis and Brady spokesmen, so I place it in the same category as the ever-breaking “Conservative Revolt.” Topinka has multiple statewide victories. I say she will do just fine downstate until proven otherwise.

Comment by Bubs Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 3:11 pm
Sabato is 90% right. However he overestimated the level of acceptance Blagojevich has within this Democratic state. They are not blinded by this governor’s charm any longer and enough of them will support JBT for her to win November.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 3:25 pm
It can be fun to speculate (I am guessing Rod by at least 10% in Nov), but it’s really all guess work at this point. Who has the best chance to beat Rod? I have no idea…and I doubt anyone else really does either. There are a lot of informed, smart people out there who can give opinions, but what most politically-savy people know (and I include a lot of this site’s posters in that group) is that real issues and facts rarely decide an election at the state level.

Rod has a lot of money to spend. I have no illusions that he will go to negative advertising if he feels threatened. What skeletons are in JBT’s closet? How many votes has Brady made that could now be drudged up against him?

Right now, we’re looking at four horses sitting in the corral and trying to guess which one can win a race against an experienced racehourse. We haven’t seen them run yet, so IMHO it’s really all guesses and speculation.

It IS fun, though.

Comment by HappyFatGuy Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 4:05 pm
I’ve always been a Democrate BUT I refuse to vote for a Union bashing lier like Rod. JBT will get our votes this year. And Judy we love to see you every year in our parade! GO JUDY!

Comment by State Union worker Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 5:17 pm
If Topinka is the best the GOP has to offer then I have no doubt the governor may get his second term.

Comment by Levois Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 5:30 pm
Oh ye if little faith! You all act like the primary is over but the big woman has not sang yet. EdWIN is the long shot, the dark horse, he won’t make his move until the home stretch then look out. Do you know of ANYBODY who likes Blago that is not an employee of his? I don’t down here. True, most don’t know who EdWIN is at least down here but it comes down to that anybody other than Blago that will count. The guy is in trouble and when the horses come down the home stretch EdWIN will make his move and if the track is muddy that day, it always helps the long shot! Yeah, I know this is not a horse race, but the comparison is the same sometimes. On the republicans down here I would say Oby has it but then again Brady may come on down the stretch. It is kind of fun watching isn’t it? The bottom line is Blago should not even be in a primary and if he wasn’t such an egotistical goof ball he would have smooth sailing. Is Chicago going to crank out a vote for Blago? If so, who is going to crank it out? Friends of mine up there in the ward organizations say they are not doing anything for anybody this time. They will not talk to anyone for fear they are wired, they will not take money from anyone because they know they are being watched. The same thing is going on in the Metro East area. Factor all this in. Now to the point, if Blago wins I say he wins the general unless he or some of his cohorts are indicted. Democrats will have no reason to jump ship and vote for JBT, she would just be a republican version of Blago so the democrats feel they might as well stick with the party. The comments on this blog are good though and it is interesting to study all the angles.

Comment by Paul Powell Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 7:55 pm
Interesting - all this horse race analysis, some good, some not, and not a single word about how the national trends will affect the governor’s race. IF - and it is still an IF - the 6th year thumping the president’s party gets (1986, 1976, 1966, 1958, 1950, and 1938, except for 1998, the year of the zipper) is enhanced with some sort of fallout from Abramoff / DeLay / Libby, it could be a tidal wave that nationally swamps the GOP. And the effect on the governor’s race? GOP voters will stay home on election day, boosting Blagojevich.

Comment by Smitty Irving Friday, Feb 3, 06 @ 10:34 pm
Sabato couldn’t be more wrong. Topinka would be the WEAKEST candidate against Rod by far.

Topinka can’t seperate herself from George Ryan. They were political partners and are from the same mold. Might as well run George again.

Blago would make mincemeat out of Topinka. It’s a moot debate anyway. Topinka’s numbers are tanking and she won’t win the Primary.

Comment by Anonymous Saturday, Feb 4, 06 @ 12:16 am
Has anyone heard the latest sound bite from the governor on telling Bush to cancel his budget deficit program? I did not catch all of it but he said you can only spend the amount of revenue you take in.Then why has he borrow almost 21 billion since he has been governor.Maybe he needs to find out what a budget deficit bill is and see if Illinois could use one.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Saturday, Feb 4, 06 @ 9:34 am
Hey, Bubs

I’m curious about where all this “Brady has no organization” drivel is coming from, other than the Oberweis crowd.

Brady easily has more county coordinators out there working away than any other candidate, and the amazing thing is, he’s not paying them! They’re volunteers, and they believe in what they’re doing…. they’re not just hacks raking in paychecks. That’s a scary prospect for any opponent.

Obie and Gidwitz can throw around as much money as they want, but if you don’t generate any excitement among the rank and file, you’re going nowhere. That’s the underlying, apparently well-kept secret about the Brady campaign.

Gidwitz is on TV but his four to five mil has only moved him about five or six points. Oberweis is throwing bombs with no substance and putting signs in right-of-way all over the state, but none of that translates to votes. Judy is playing catchup right now organization-wise, but she has the advantage in quite a bit of state org. support - whatever that’s worth.

But right now, Brady is smoking the competition on the ground. Judy might be able to change that, but it’s not looked that way yet.

Brady is definitely a dark horse, but with the first televised debate, all of his endorsements rolling in, moving poll numbers, good ads, and an excited volunteer army, he has all the makings of a surprise on election night.

Comment by anon Saturday, Feb 4, 06 @ 10:36 am
Hey, Smitty

With any other governor at the helm, you might be right, but Rod is so hated throughout this state, I think a lot of people - especially Republicans - are focused on the Governor’s race and little else. The one or two congressional races will pump up turnout in the burbs, but Republicans want Rod’s head, and I don’t think they’ll be distracted. I personally know Democrats in different areas in the southern third of the state that will NOT vote for Rod. They want him out no matter what. A long time before November, but judging by sentiment I’ve seen only grow the last three years, he has a real problem with those that “brought him to the dance.”

Comment by anonymous Saturday, Feb 4, 06 @ 10:47 am
I have went from JBT to Brady in the last two weeks and I know several others including a couple of Democrats that is considering the same move.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Saturday, Feb 4, 06 @ 1:09 pm
Does Brady have more than one guy working Cook County? That poor kid must not be seeing much of his family. The D-2s say he’s getting paid, by the way.

Comment by Anon Saturday, Feb 4, 06 @ 2:43 pm
Now that is just funny based upon the bashing of Brady’s campaign from above. First the attacks come because he has too many people on paid staff…then he doesn;t have enough people working in Cook County…which way is it? Seriously, I understand that there will be some slinging in here, but at least pick which way you are going to attack…you simply cannot have it both ways. So, those of you on Ice Cream Drive, have a meeting and decide which way you want to go…then come out in full force with a consistent position.

Comment by the wonderboy Saturday, Feb 4, 06 @ 4:29 pm
In reference to the state employee union worker who wrote in bashing the gov. I have worked for the state going on 24 years and this is the BEST contract we have ever had with the state. I do not agree with the same sex health coverage for live-in’s. Seems this union that you are in, supported the governor and paid for political campaign brochures for him. Something I am dead against the union paying. I did not vote for the governor but I will highly consider voting for him this term. He may not be at Springfield all of the time, but seems to me that he is does business all over the state and isn’t that the way it should be? Southern Illinois has factories that are closing but seems to me that this governor is trying to help those factories that are here, to stay here. I voted Republican all those years except in 2004 I crossed over and voted Democrat for the first time in my life for our states attorney county race. I feel that I am a conservative but as a state employee it seems to me that we have been better off under Democrat control than under Republican control when it comes to our state job. Better benefits and better pay! Yes cuts have been made and continue to be made but we have been cut since Jim Edgar was governor, do more with less policy. Looks to me as if the Dept. of Corrections was one agency that didn’t have much cuts then, while others took a beating. If there is a safety reason at those prisons and they need more employees, then I’m all for that. Seems they always find the money when they have to. Maybe, the union should try and sit down and talk with the governor and stop making demands and try to come to a medium. I only know what I read in the paper, watch on the news or hear on the radio. If there are other problems out there, then I suggest that you get the word out, after all this is election year. Unless the gov does something drastically towards our contract, I believe I know where my vote will be this year.

Comment by duggie southern illinois Saturday, Feb 4, 06 @ 5:31 pm
Anonymous 10:47 am - If history holds - and that is my point, not a prediction - GOP voters would stay home in Nov because of the national trend. Last time we elected a Democratic Sheriff in Sangamon County was 1974, because the GOP voters stayed home. And Abramoff / DeLay COULD do the same in Nov 2006.

Comment by Smitty Irving Saturday, Feb 4, 06 @ 5:58 pm
I just read the lastest Roeser smear on Topinka. It was disgusting. The recnet criticism of Oberweis for Roeser’s conduct now appears to me to have a point. I sure don’t want those FTN people having any say in this state, and they will if Oberweis wins. They are so hateful it is frightening.

Comment by Anon Sunday, Feb 5, 06 @ 6:51 pm
Ok, some predictions. Is Judy going to win? No. Is Judy going to make it through the primaries? Yes. Why? Because you are going to see the largest turnout of Republican voters in a long time. Why? Because the Democrats are going out in force to vote for Judy in the primaries to make sure she is running against Rod. The precincts are already doing the numbers to see how many they need to have switch in the primaries. Why? Because the Democrats know they can beat Judy.

My two cents.

Comment by Dauthus Monday, Feb 6, 06 @ 12:59 pm
I wish I could vote for Brady in the primary - but can’t. Unfortunately, I’m a state worker who works for an agency who pulled the voting status of every employee - then did a “material reorganization” and got rid of the Republicans.
They missed me!

Comment by Anon Monday, Feb 6, 06 @ 10:02 pm