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First ever poll of southern Illinois shows foul mood, Republican leanings

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* As I told subscribers this morning, the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute has a released a poll of southern Illinois voters…

For the first time, a poll has been conducted solely of Southern Illinois residents, showing how people in the region feel about many important issues. And the general consensus is they don’t feel good.

The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute released on Tuesday the first results of the Southern Illinois Poll, which focuses on an 18-county region spanning the southern part of the state. It is the first such poll conducted on a local level by the institute. […]

“I’m struck by what a bad mood people are in,” said institute Director David Yepsen said. “People think things are headed in the wrong direction in the country, overwhelmingly so in the state, and it’s pretty clear to me that people of Southern Illinois are in a bad mood.”

Toplines are here.

The counties polled…

Alexander, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Massac, Perry, Pope, Pulaski, Randolph, Saline, Union, Washington, White and Williamson

* Some questions…

The election for Governor of Illinois… if the election were held today, would you vote for…
Quinn 25.4%
Brady 48.6%
Whitney 5.2%
Someone else 1.5%
Other/Don’t know 19.2%

Next, the election for the US Senator from Illinois… if the election were held today, would you vote for…
Giannoulias 24.7%
Kirk 42.1%
Jones 4.5%
Someone else 3.0%
Other/Don’t know 25.7%

Those who thought that Kirk wouldn’t do well in the deep south may be in for a surprise.

* Approval ratings…

Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives Mike Madigan
Strongly approve 3.2%
Somewhat approve 20.2%
Somewhat disapprove 15.5%
Strongly disapprove 23.2%
Other/Don’t know 37.9%

President Barack Obama.
Strongly approve 17.5%
Somewhat approve 19.2%
Somewhat disapprove 14.0%
Strongly disapprove 45.6%
Other/Don’t know 3.7%

Illinois Governor Pat Quinn.
Strongly approve 3.7%
Somewhat approve 27.2%
Somewhat disapprove 25.2%
Strongly disapprove 29.4%
Other/Don’t know 14.5%

While 38 percent don’t know enough about Madigan to rate him, his disapproval numbers are certainly ominous for his candidates.

* Right track, wrong track…

Generally speaking, do you think things in our country are going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?
Right direction 22.7%
Wrong direction 69.8%
Other/Don’t know 7.5%

And what about the direction of the State of Illinois?
Right direction 6.5%
Wrong direction 85.3%
Other/Don’t know 8.2%

And how are things going in your city or area of the state?
Right direction 47.6%
Wrong direction 41.9%
Other/Don’t know 10.5%

Regardless of what you think about the direction in your part of the state, tell us what you think about the overall quality of life in your area.
Excellent 4.5%
Good 31.9%
Average 35.9%
Not so good 18.5%
Poor 9.2%

Translation: The direction of the country sucks, the direction of the state sucks way more, but we’re more positive on the direction of southern Illinois and find it a decent place to live.

* Party ID…

Strong Democratic 14.2%
Not-strong Democratic 14.5%
Independent-Democratic 5.2%
Pure Independent 7.7%
Independent-Republican 14.5%
Not-strong Republican 16.2% Strong Republican 16.7%
Other/Don’t know 11.0%

* Also, 53 percent say the new national health insurance law is a “bad thing,” while just 27 percent say it’s a “good thing.” 55 percent identify as conservatives, 24 percent say they’re moderates and 18 percent say they’re liberals.

* Details…

The poll of 401 registered voters in the area was taken April 5 to 13 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percent. The poll was conducted for the Institute by Customer Research International of San Marcos, Texas. It reports no Illinois political figures as clients and was paid with non-tax dollars from the Institute’s endowment fund.

* Your thoughts?

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 10:32 am

Comments

I’m glad they included Whitney in this poll.

And it sure looks like Quinn’s picking Sheila Simon really did cut into Whitney’s base. He must have been well over 6% before that announcement (*snark*).

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 10:36 am
–Translation: The direction of the country sucks, the direction of the state sucks way more, but we’re more positive on the direction of southern Illinois and find it a decent place to live.–

Sounds like they’re where they should be.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 10:39 am
Wow….

Looks like running against Madigan might be a good strategy downstate…

Also I know it will not be nearly enough but will the feeling about the speaker hurt Lisa

Comment by OneMan Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 10:42 am
They say the state is going in the wrong direction, yet watch they will continue to vote for there current Legislators.

They all need to go.

Comment by He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 10:43 am
Breaking news….

Poll finds vegetarians don’t like meat.

Comment by UISer Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 10:49 am
People in Southern Illinois are disappointed with Democrats and will support Republicans. Shocking.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 10:50 am
Kudos to the Institute for including Whitney, but they omitted Green Party in the Party ID section.

19.2% undecided in the governor’s race. That’s a pretty large segment waiting to be convinced.

Comment by Squideshi Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 10:53 am
Still overjoyed that Dillard lost because Brady would make Quinn a shoe-in? Brady must just avoid the big gaffe. Quinn will sink on his own.

Dem’s blew it big time electing liteweight Alexi G. Mark Kirk was going to beat him before the banking scandal threw an anchor to the weak swimmwer Alexi. Hoffman could have beaten M Kirk. Say hello to Sen Kirk.

Comment by jaded voter Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 10:53 am
Well, in many ways it is a bit shocking. We’ve sent Democrats to Congress for, like, ever. Same with out state senators and reps. Geez, Paul Simon was as Democratic as it gets.

Comment by Deep South Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 10:54 am
Get back to me with some news. Southern Illinois supporting a conservative isn’t news. Republicans do well there even when the trend is for Democrats (Nov. 2008). Once word of the extreme positions that Brady holds starts to get around, especially in the Chicagoland area, Quinn will win.

Comment by M Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 10:54 am
As I have said for a year, Congressman kirk had 2 hurdles to overcome. Was he too left of center for the gop base and was he too tied to bush for the general election.

I am not closing the book yet, but he seems to have gotten past the first issue as this poll demonstrates. The tea parties have been the gift of a lifetime for him because they have moved the gop’s focus off of social issues onto economic ones. This is bad bad bad for alexi. I expect the blago trial will further move the election away from social issues and more concentrate the right’s rage at chicago corruption.

I am unconvinced on number 2, but democrat operatives should be you know whatting their pants because if Kirk loses this race it won’t be because of another gop civil war that plays out in the general and kills him.

Also for what it’s worth, our area is the most liberal of the suburban counties-most republicans in kirk’s district are prochoice and anti-gun (google laurie dann), kirk has held this area for more than 10 years. the other suburban districts are much more conservative and even though some are held by democrats (for now) like Mrs. wall street melissa bean, halvorson, and foster, and will be tougher for alexi to win.

Throw in the fact that blacks and young people don’t vote in midterms and alexi is looking at getting his clock cleaned in the suburbs, downstate with a depressed city base unlikely to show up.

Comment by shore Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:00 am
For those of you who say this is no surprise about southerners supporting Republicans, keep in mind that the region in question includes a Democratic state Senator and two Dem House members, not to mention a Dem congressman.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:00 am
Also for what it’s worth, yepsen gets no play here, but the guy was a national political legend in iowa and every book that involves a presidential campaign for the last 30 years has him in it. If one of the interns needs something to do, I’d love to see him interviewed here. I am sure the guy has great stories.

Comment by shore Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:01 am
===blacks and young people don’t vote in midterms===

Actually, the African-American vote in off-years is much higher here than nationally. Also, 10 percent of the IL vote in 2004 general was black, and 10 percent of the IL vote in 2006 general was black, according to exit polling.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:06 am
This poll is interesting but not accurate. The glaring omission is that Jackson County was not polled. Not sure why. SIUC, the campus conducting the poll is located in Jackson County, and although it probably wouldnt have changed the numbers much, it would have had some effect.

I am surprised at the success of Mark Kirk in the poll. Thought conservatives might stay home on that election. Nothing else here surprises me much.

Comment by Living in Oklahoma Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:09 am
Thanks Rich for pointing out that Southern Illinois is not Republican (or at least hasn’t been).

Senate District: 59-D, 58-R, 57-D, 56-D
Rep. District: 118-D, 117-D, 116-D, 115-R, 114-D, 113-D, 112-D, 111-D

Comment by Downstater Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:09 am
===The glaring omission is that Jackson County was not polled===

Actually, it was. I left it out accidentally. Fixing soon.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:13 am
Okay, great posts today as always.

Comment by Living in Oklahoma Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:16 am
This poll took nine days to complete? That is strange. Most are done in 2-3 days, and most pollsters I know would not be comfortable with that duration of time (to get through 401 calls?). They provide no gender, race or age breakdowns, nor any geographic breakdowns (how many came from which counties?). It’s impossible to say, but if they talked to mostly older people with landline phones, as opposed to having some younger people who may be in cell-only households, then that might skew things to be a little more conservative and Republican than they really are (granting that S. IL is generally older and more conservative than the rest of the state).

Was the poll live dial or automated? The release doesn’t say. That matters.

The press release quotes David Yepsen as saying, “We want facts and data that will be open for all to see.” OK. So, will they be posting the dataset, cross tabs, and more info about their methodology?

What other groups and institutions did they ask about on Question 15? They only mention Congress, but it seems like they asked about others. Which ones and what were the results?

Regardless of whether or not it was paid for with foundation money, how much did it cost to do this?

Comment by Willie Stark Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:21 am
Maybe the results are less striking when you take into account that these counties are in the farthest southern reaches of Illinois and are represented in the GA by both Republicans and very conservative Dems. Of the three Senators in the surveyed area, there are two Republicans (Luchtefeld and John Jones) and one Dem (Gary Forby), who is one of the most conservative Dems in the Senate. In the House, the districts are represented by Phelps, Bradley and Reitz (again conservative Dems) and Mike Bost-R.

The Dem strongholds like Madison and St. Clair Counties are not included in this poll.

Comment by ilrino Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:28 am
If it was not for MJM, Lisa’s career would never have gotten off the ground. She barely beat Birkett the first time and would never have won without MJM’s help. He has done a lot of good things over the years and needs to start pointing them out if he wants to survive a few more terms.

Comment by "Old Timer Dem" Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:37 am
Additionally, did they use a voter database or did they do random digit dialing and then screen for self-identified voters? The later is a bit less reliable since there are plenty of people who do not want to admist that they are not registered to vote.

Comment by Willie Stark Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:37 am
Is that POTUS to Quincy visit a go?

Comment by Brennan Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:46 am
As I read the Democrats explaining how this poll doesn’t really mean anything, I’m reminded of this classic video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro

Comment by Downstater Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:46 am
I’ve never undersootd Southern Illinois to be some bastion of conservatives–in the past there were plenty of union members, etc that supported Democrats ahd have regularly elected Democrats. I think it’s a really bad time for any incumbent, but particularly the Democrats since they’ve been the controlling party in the state for some time.

Comment by Champaign Dweller Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:47 am
Willie Stark: I often have exactly the same questions. I’d prefer the answers to be found in the polling data. However, by now I think they leave this out by design. They want you to contact them for those answers. They keep some of the goods behind the curtain intentionally.

Comment by Brennan Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 11:48 am
@ Downstater. Great video post. It was a definite lol moment for me.

Comment by Living in Oklahoma Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 12:43 pm
“10 percent in 2004 was black and 10 percent in 2006 was black”

yes but bush and katrina were fresh in the minds of black voters in 2006 and democrat anger was at its peak. the better analogy would be 2002.

You also don’t know what the impact the blago trial is going to have on depressing the democrat as well as black vote not to mention if democrat groups like the ones who showed up yesterday to protest the legislators they put into office will sit it out to hold them accountable.

Comment by shore Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 12:44 pm
Very interesting, but I am not terribly surprised. SO-IL is socially conservative, we’ve also got rural farm belt here which count on farm subsidies and some labor, ie, coal, construction, etc. GOP primary results in SO-IL counties generally obtain higher results for conservatives in primaries, I’ve noticed.

SO-IL, especially in the “Metro East,” feels more connected to and knows more about Missouri government, than our own state government. There’s a very weak attachment to our own capital and major city. We support the STL Cardinals and Blues, for goodness sake. The Cubs and Blackhawks are the enemy, as is anything from Chicago. I know that sounds silly, but there’s underlying truth there. It pervades everything.

Yet, there is indeed Dem representation here. But they are not “Chicago Dem” or modern socially liberal and openly redistributionist (!) Dems, post-Clinton. Eg, Sen. Reitz assured me he would not vote for the IL FOCA which failed again this year. US Rep. Costello has had a reputation as a social conservative. He’s not the kind of liberal that Obama is, but he’s now called upon to follow his party. He’s what one once thought of as “moderate” or “pro-life” Dems, but the healthcare vote put that myth to rest, many on the right believe. The pro-life movement may no longer support them; I think one particular pro-life group (Indy?) said it would not support Dems who claimed to be pro-life in the wake of their healthcare vote. I actually believed Costello when he said in the press and his staffer said on the phone he would vote against the bill. I was fooled, not again. I have been surprised by the level of dislike for him expressed in the BND com boxes.

I don’t think Paul Simon was the partisan ideologue that Durbin and Obama are. Paul Simon type Dems were not too different from the Bob Doles or Jim Edgars. But that was a different era. Local guys may still be able to play that way.

As far as Kirk is concerned, I don’t think that SO-IL will vote for a Chicago Dem. I think the larger national mood preferred to limit the Dems’ hold on Congress is afoot here.

The results of this poll are related to the voting/subsidy map that Rich posted last week, I think.

And if SO-IL can produce barely 25% of the total ballots in statewide elections (which Rich showed a few weeks back, I recall), this is all merely academic.

Sorry; this was rather long. I hope it was informative to folks.

Comment by Peggy SO-IL Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 1:24 pm
I think they went too far south for this poll.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 1:29 pm
VM,
Yes go to central Illinois. There were some counties there that voted for Ed Eisendrath over Blago in the Democratic Primary.
The deep south has been a long-standing bastion for coal-mining Democrats. Central Illinois is much more Republican.

Comment by Downstater Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 1:39 pm
Gee, you tell me to go to Central Illinois because the Democrats are smarter, but then you let the other shoe drop and tell me that Central Illinois is more Republican than Southern Illinois.

OH NO - you go to Central Illinois. I think there are still Whigs meeting up at Tea Parties there.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 1:48 pm
So, 34% were Dems, or leaned that way and 47% were Repubs or leaned that way. Of course the polls will be skewed towards the GOP.

Comment by Central IL Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 1:49 pm
VM,
I meant “go to Central Illinois” for another poll. I think it will show even greater support for removing the Democrats from state office.

Comment by Downstater Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 1:54 pm
OH.
So, this “I hate Democrats” thingy isn’t just a Southern Illinois issue.

Governor Brady?

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 2:04 pm
Central IL: I’d check the Dem/GOP polling distribution against recent election results. I don’t know why the Paul Simon Inst. would skew poll results that would favor the GOP, especially when their namesake’s daughter is on the Dem ticket. I don’t mean to say they’d skew to favor the Dem ticket, but that it would not make sense to skew against the Dem ticket.

Comment by Peggy SO-IL Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 2:21 pm
VM,
It’s not the Republicans that you need to be worried about in Central and Southern Illinois. They are a known quantity. It’s the independants that should be worrisome for the Democrats.

Comment by Downstater Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 2:24 pm
Peggy–not to burst your balloon, but I live in the Metro East and could not even name the Missouri governor with any certainty….let alone “feel more connected to” that state. Plus, I am a Cub fan and know many others in the area—even a few Sox fans. I do agree that there are many “Chicagophobes” down here. They always complain about “Chicago” lottery winners–not realizing 75% of the population lives north of I-80.
I find it hard to believe that more people think their local southern Illinois area is on the right track. Driving across state to my hometown occasionally, you can see the decay.
I am not surprised to see Obama’s dismal numbers….don’t underestimate the racism down here.
And finally, Paul Simon was one-of-a-kind and actually organized a College Republicans group at Dana College when a student there. Respected by both sides of the aisle! A different era…sad, but true.

Comment by Vote Quimby! Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 2:26 pm
While I don’t know the actual numbers related to President Obama’s popularity in the southern part of the state before, during and after his state runs and the presidential election, I am uncomfortable with offhand comments about the assumed racism of groups of folk in any part of Illinois. I am sure there are racist individuals thruout the whole state but painting whole groups in that way doesn’t help the dialogue IMO.

Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 2:59 pm
So looking at how the folks feel about what direction their part of the state is going (the right one), I guess they will re-elect their incumbents and then complain about government. Hard to figure.

Comment by steve schnorf Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 3:25 pm
Gov. Quinn needs to take a close look at these numbers, and do so fast. He is rightfully being perceived as moving closer and closer to Mayor Daley, a move that will not win him any new support in the south end of the state (while drving many progressives to either support Whitney or stay home on Election Day).

Comment by fedup dem Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 3:40 pm
VQ: My grandma is a Cub fan, frankly. I know they exist. Are you not in the STL Media market? No KMOX? 97.1? 550 AM? No K-SHE 95 (or KHTS?)?

Comment by Peggy SO-IL Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 3:47 pm
Hey VM…You still want Hare campaigning with Obama in Quincy? Duh

Comment by Louis Howe Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 7:32 pm
So Quinn picked Simon to hold the downstate democrats, a poll is done in an area were ten out of 12 legislators are democrats and 50% of the voters early in the election support Brady only 25% are supporting Quinn who is the incumbent and the Poll is skewed to the GOP.

Comment by Yeahright Thursday, Apr 22, 10 @ 10:42 pm
VM–Quinn hasn’t done anything but you think he’s a superior candidate to Brady?

Comment by Champaign Dweller Friday, Apr 23, 10 @ 9:11 am