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This just in… Tribune/WGN poll numbers

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Illinois

Blagojevich 62
Eisendrath 18
Other 2
Undecided 18

Topinka 38
Oberweis 17
Gidwitz 11
Brady 8
Other 2
Undecided 25

Chicago Tribune/WGN TV survey of 1200 voters, 600 Democrats and 600 Republicans. Poll taken 2/2 through 2/6.

More in tomorrow’s Capitol Fax, including how this stacks up with other internal polls.

UPDATE: Comments closed on this one. Head to today’s QOTD.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 9:20 pm

Comments

I wonder if anyone drops out to solidfy support behind the #2 or #3 man

Comment by Son of A Sailor Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 9:32 pm
If they haven’t dropped out now, I don’t see anyone dropping out.

I think the significant points in these numbers is that Oberweis is going nowhere in his third major run, and Gidwitz has moved very little for all of his money.

Topinka remains the frontrunner and Brady the underdog, but easily within striking distance of Oberweis.

Watch out Judy. the stuff will be hitting the fan now!

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 10:08 pm
On the GOP side, it’s JBT’s race to lose. Gidwitz’s message just isn’t catching any fire - where’s the PASSION?!?

18% for Eisendrath VERY VERY interesting, considering his name ID is probably way low and he hasn’t spent a dime on TV.

Is his 18% figure a proxy for Democrats that might desert Blago in a general election? I’d be curious to hear what the peanut gallery thinks about that. I would assume that this 18% figure is a reflexive “anti-Blago” sentiment that pro-Eisendrath, yes?

Comment by Maroon Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 10:54 pm
Wow, how impressive for Gidwitz and how lame for Brady considering the debate. This is great news for any Gidwitz supporter who had lost faith in the campaign. Bad news for Obee, but he has his 5 kids and 13 grandkids (which he talks too much about) to go home too…

Judy, of course remains the front runner, and I have some interesting insight on this. She happens to be the old time party republican, a savior for the republican state employees. Though she doesn’t have a favorable position on some issues, she is the choice of many inside the party who would rather have someone they know and trust rather than an outsider, business man or someone so conservative they will alienate average people. She is the winner, now we’ll just see how long it takes for her competitors, all you people, and me to realize it… because I am still in denial…

Comment by Lovie's Leather Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 10:56 pm
I think the significant point in these numbers is that JBT leads the *combined total* of the other 3 by 2 points.

And that it may be too late for EdWIN to, ummm, WIN. Although a nicely sized protest vote is still possible.

Comment by 6 Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 10:58 pm
Rich can you provide us with some prelim numbers from the ‘04 Senate race at the same time period!

Comment by SouthernILRepub Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 11:37 pm
we all know JBT is going to win.. This is not big news.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 11:42 pm
I agree that it’s significant that JBT is ahead of the combined total for the other candidates. Bad news for Oberweiss, Brady, and Gidwitz.

The 18% for EE doesn’t signal any special problem for Blago holding his base. Anytime there’s a second candidate, they’re going to get something, because there is always a certain amount of dissatisfaction. At the height of Jim Edgar’s popularity, an opponent with very little name ID and money got over 30% in a Republican primary against him.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 7, 06 @ 11:58 pm
EE’s name recognition was 52%, which is much higher than I expected given his invisible campaign. The results show that the ABB vote isn’t enough to enable EE to become competitive simply by raising his name ID. He’s going to have to convince voters that he offers a viable alternative, and it doesn’t seem like he has the money, organization, political skills or time to even come close to doing that.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 12:10 am