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Illinois

* Does Rep. David Miller (D-Lynwood) have a chance against Judy Baar Topinka in the comptroller’s race? Explain.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 12:52 pm

Comments

Sure, he can always pull out the “what was she thinking” ads.

Comment by tubbfan Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 12:56 pm
Nope.

Down ballot race, name ID counts for a lot. No way he beats Topinka in that department.

Comment by well Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 12:58 pm
Yes - Even though Judy is not an incumbant, many voters are going to vote against the more recognized name.

Comment by Mr. Ethics Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:00 pm
who cares?????????????

Comment by ivoted4judy Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:00 pm
With all due respect to TugboatAnnie, few remember her and those who think she was a George Ryan department head. She is the least electable of the GOP ticket. Steve Kim will get more votes. ro

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:01 pm
Not unless a dead uncle leaves him 2 or 3 million. It would take that much for him to get competitive with hard name id. And there is no way to raise that kind of cash in that race. Short of that, in this kind of year, he loses by 15 points or more.

Comment by right side Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:01 pm
No way. Agree with “Well”…name i.d. is key. JBT has big time name i.d. and will have the money to push through a message at the end when it counts.

Comment by SalukiDog Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:02 pm
Name ID counts for a lot, but, in this case, it could work against JBT. It all depends on how much residual impact the whole “What was she thinking campaign” has. I think Miller has a shot. If he wins, he’ll have Rod to thank.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:02 pm
This race is good for Miller. He will demonstrate his appeal and do a great job. However, 2010 is going to be a Republican year. A lot of voters know of Topinka and like her. She isn’t running for her old job, so she isn’t hampered by any expiration dates with voters, which occurs when a political veteran overstays their time without moving on.

I’m voting for David, but my gut says we’re helping him for a future statewide office - not this one.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:03 pm
I have seen numbers in that race. Its a blow out. David is a great guy but he should have polled before he jumped in. Hopefully he finds another spot to run for soon.

Comment by eastern pol Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:09 pm
If is wasn’t for the anti-incumbant feeling that is going to be the thought process of most voters I would say she has a chance. but I think her name recognition as part of the establishment at one time and therefore part of the problem, and the association with Ryan, and her age, she is going to have a difficult time winning. I think part of the anti-incumbant push is going to be “if I recognize the name it can’t be good” thought process. But I also think the lack of good choices, the many names that might be added to the ballot at the 11th hour confusing the issues, and disgust driven apathy I wonder if we aren’t going to see a low voter turnout.

Comment by Irish Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:13 pm
there is no possible way he wins.

Comment by Downstate GOP Faithless Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:18 pm
I’m going to vote forhim, but if Miller is counting on the coat tails of Pat Quinn and Alexi Giannoulias…he’s in trouble. Big trouble.

Unless the voters confuse JBT with Betty Loren Maltese, I don’t think this is the year for David Miller. Too bad, he’s a good guy and would be a good Comptroller.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:23 pm
Anybody that meets David is energized by him, his message and his record. He has been tirelessly traveling all around the state and comes from the vote-rich south suburbs. He is going to surprise a lot of people. (But not me, because I expect him to win)

Comment by Rep. John Fritchey Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:25 pm
Miller’s only chance is that she does something stupid or someone leaks something, think Cohen, Jack Ryan, Hull…short of that…she wins by 7 to 10%

Comment by wonder boy Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:28 pm
47th… the GOP really doesn’t have any coat tails either. I guess Kirk, but since I’m in Chicago I’m having a hard time finding anyone who is excited about Kirk.

I’m having a hard time finding anyone in the general who I’m excited about other than Preckwinkle… is there anyone anyone is excited about?

And to answer the question… he always has a chance since I’m sure JBT’s negatives are high, and there’s always the chance that Rainbow/PUSH really GOTV…

Comment by The 'Dale to HPark Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:29 pm
Good luck to Miller, but Tom Dart came up with 45% of the statewide vote in 2002 against Topinka. She’s a tough candidate to beat in the down-ballot races. He’s got an uphill race ahead of him.

Comment by 71 Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:31 pm
Judy BT will be tough to beat. The electorate will have great sympathy for her because of the guff she took from Blago during the last campaign. Those that liked her but did not vote for her last time will likely vote for her this time out of sympathy. Add that with all the other pro-repub factors this cycle and it does not look good for Rep Miller this time.

Comment by "Old Timer Dem" Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:31 pm
Doubt it. It should be a GOP year and that’ll help down ballot. Plus, JBT should be able to produce a spot on how she took on Blago and his dirty campaign money.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:32 pm
No- 1) His poor performance in the primary, and inability to get his campaign together vs. a candidate who has been battle tested in a top ticket race 2) Voters may feel like they have some sort of redemption from the ‘06 race in voting for her 3) Overall name recognition and experience

Comment by Bring Back Boone's Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:33 pm
Anyone can beat anyone but unless he gets a serious infusion of cash it will be next to impossible.

Comment by Cosmic Charlie Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:44 pm
Yes.

1. He is a compelling speaker and local Democratic leaders are going to be begging him to speak to their troops. In turn, those front-line Dems are going to be happy to have a candidate with some life in him and will in turn turn out the vote for his down-ballot race.

2. Judy is very entertaining, but the people of Illinois don’t think Springfield needs another clown. Even one who’s name the recognize.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:46 pm
Does anybody remember what Rod’s approval ratings were when he beat Judy 2006, not to mention it was public knowledge he was under federal investigation. Rod destroyed her.

JBT is obviously the favorite in this race, but she is extremely beatable and I believe David can do it.

Comment by wndycty Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:46 pm
Not to distract from the question, but does anyone know how many at-will Dem jobs are at stake in this race? You have one or two “Deputy” Comptrollers, a chief of staff, chief legal counsel, some executive secretaries. Maybe a few workers who started out exempt and have moved into Merit Comp positions.

I guess I’m wondering whether either one of these candidate can generate many “volunteers”. Even as the non-incumbent I would think Judy still has a lot of “friends” out there who would volunteer their own time (and money) to help her. Don’t know Miller well enough to say the same, but he seems to be a sharp enough candidate.

Comment by Toxicanne Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:47 pm
– Rod destroyed her.–

He beat her to death on TV with campaign money from shakedowns and bribery. He was on for months, defining her, before she could answer.

I don’t think Harris would, or could, do that.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:50 pm
“Anybody that meets David is energized by him, his message and his record.” - you must be friends with him. He didn’t supply much energy or message in his primary campaign, which he nearly lost to an unknown Raja despite having the support of the Cook County machine…and his record includes a long stint in the legislature, which can’t be too popular. But I do think Miller will win, as many may think of JBT as the incumbent.

Comment by Robert Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:52 pm
I think he can beat her. He is not your usual candidate. He is a little bit different.

But he will need to spend lots and lots of money which I don’t think he has. On secdond thought-he can’t beat her.

Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:56 pm
With all due respect, Rep. John Fritchey…I am fatigued by candidates in Illinois that are energetic with good messages and records.

I would have happily fallen for that stuff a couple of years ago. But now Illinois is on the brink.

In 2010 I need more.

Comment by Randolph Q Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:57 pm
yes because republicans like me are sick of republicans like topinka and will leave that area blank.

Comment by shore Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 1:58 pm
Think she is Betty Loren Maltese…hey that is a good point. Folks will think she was away at slammer city….Then she’ll say no no I was at METRA shoving all that cash down Phil Pagano’s Phat Phace….Yeah keep telling yourself how much of a cakewalk TugboatAnnie will have…Most believe she beat Dart because …… Let’s just say it had nothing to d with her skills
Betty Loren Maltese…..Come to think of it has anyone every seen them in the same room at the same time?

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 2:06 pm
It is all about the money, money, money. If you have not checked, the Governor candidates are having a tough of enough time raising cash let alone down ballot races. Miller will have to spend an enormous amount of money to top Topinka’s name id. No way he can win.

Comment by Money Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 2:09 pm
Randolph, not being facetious, but would you rather have a candidate with a bad message and record? To date, JBT has done nothing in this campaign, not even articulate why she wants to run for comptroller in the first place. I think that people will see David for what he is, somebody with solid experience yet who can still bring a breath of fresh air to the system.

He has a solid record of fighting on behalf of his constituents and is equally comfortable, and effective, speaking in his hometown of Evanston, his current residence of Lynwood or at a fish fry downstate.

And he’s not a half-bad dentist.

Comment by Rep. John Fritchey Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 2:12 pm
People, I am getting really tired of deleting stupid comments on both sides of the question, most of whom aren’t even answering the question.

Therefore, I’m going to ban EVERYBODY I delete from now on, so you’d better be careful. Stop the stupidity or you’re gone for good. I mean it. Forever is a very long time.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 2:27 pm
I think he has a shot. JBT is been there, done that for the Republicans. Yes, she was outspent, but she was also out-campaigned for governor. She may get some sympathy votes from those who feel guilty about Rod, but that is not enough to sustain a campaign. Miller is telegenic, has a good ballot name, and at this point no baggage.

Comment by agree with shore Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 2:27 pm
GOA: No Comptroller, no matter how awesome, can fix the state’s deficit. It’s primarily a paper-pushing position. Little, if any, policy-making takes place in that office. The constitutional authority is very limited.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 2:29 pm
This is a name recognition race, it’s hard to imagine it being anything else. It will come down to whether JBT is remembered fondly or with disdain.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 2:32 pm
I think Topinka is the worst candidate for Miller to go up against — I think either candidate can win but her name ID alone will make this a much more competitive race than if the GOP nominee was some random legislator. CircularFiringSquad is out to lunch saying Steve Kim (GOP AG nominee) will garner more votes than Topinka. I also agree with previous comments that there will be a sympathy vote for Topinka — some voters will want to make reparations for falling for Blago’s attacks on her.

Comment by Just Observing Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 2:37 pm
I think he has no chance, unless he can put several million into it, due to Topinka name ID and buyer’s remorse over Rod.

Also, a suggestion for a future QOTD based on comment by “The ‘Dale to HPark” — what candidate, if any, are you most excited about for November?

Comment by Lakefront Liberal Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 2:48 pm
I voted for Judy against Blago, and will vote for her again. Kind of resent the comment about her being a “clown”. A “character”, yes, but not a clown. But while a partisan Republican (who supported Ryan), she generally got good marks as Treasurer. Don’t believe that Miller has any chance against her..
P.S. Don’t agree with all this “being a Republican year”, stuff either. With all of his faults, Quinn still seems more mainstream than Brady, and this is still a Democratic state.

Comment by Downstate Commissioneer Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 2:54 pm
No. Because he is a Democrat.

Comment by Jechislo Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 2:56 pm
I think Miller will not win…

JBT will beat Miller because when it comes down to what voters are looking for, they are looking for someone who can identify the fiscal problem, find solutions and then actually DO something helpful. Miller has a very limited record in the statehouse, fiscally, and Judy will be out there reminding the voters of her treasurer tenure and her warnings against Rod that came true.

Judy has always had Illinois first in her thoughts and Illinois needs a little more Jim Edgar budgeting sense than the Ryan-Blago-Quinn “spend-o-rama” that had been relatively unchecked. Judy is NOT going to let these latest bugetary boon-doggles just happen, and whoever is in the governor’s chair, and Brady and Quinn know that.

The other side …I do not think the voters “owe” Judy anything, especially a seat in the Comptroller’s Office, but the voters know she was right about Rod, and know she’s at her best in the fiscal offices. Miller is just overmatched this time.

Comment by In the Land of Silos and Cows... Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 2:58 pm
Miller who? Seriously, do I know he’s running, but I’m sure tons of regular people don’t know who he is–let alone that he is running. And if you were a regular person interested in learning more about him or any other Democratic candidate you couldn’t find that out by visiting the IL Democratic website for more information. Can any one tell my why in this 21st century world the IL Democrats website sux? I gotta give it to the IL GOP they seem very organized and hip online.

Comment by newbieintown Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 3:04 pm
It is Illinois. Everybody has a shot. His is slim. It would be hard to beat the, “had you elected me 4 years ago we wouldn’t be in this mess” line. Miller’s problem is there is little arguement it is true. Yea we would be on the tail end of 4 slim and tough years, but we would not be on the verge of disaster. You can’t overplay the Blago card if your Judy. It is hard to find loyal support from Democrats who did not support Blago. When she plays her 4 years ago card, plus points out that these people gave you Blago, it is a steep climb. 90% chance she wins. margin of 7 pts.

Comment by the Patriot Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 3:08 pm
Not unless he comes up with a lot more cash, which does not seem probable. JBT still has a strong name recognition and a ood image. IMHO now that Rod has been indicted, this provided a positive boost to her name creating the perception that the attacks ad’s against her were unfair, and thus she has increased positive branding to her name.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 3:09 pm
JBT is a known quantity and is generally recognized as competent. If Democrats are looking for a token Republican to vote for in a statewide election, she could be it. Especially since most voters have no idea what the comptroller does.

Comment by Aldyth Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 3:10 pm
the question is, can Miller piece together a narrative that her work was bad in previous years, her ethics are suspect (published reports about questionable office activities), and that
she is not very bright. to do this he will have to raise lots of money, get out and work hard, and get on in the big market.
luckily for him, the Dem. Gov. candidate is not sucking the air
out of the campaign, fundraising room, nor is the AG candidate.
since many Dems are loathe to jump through hoops for Alexi, the time is ripe for the lower ballot Dem candidates to raise that money and get that attention. He has to go for it hard.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 3:21 pm
@ John Fritchey ‘vote-rich south suburbs’

Comment by MP Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 3:23 pm
JBT was the only GOP to win statewide in 2002 against Dart. Ironically, she was the only incumbent running for the same office which gave her a leg up compared to the other Dems who swept in. She had name recognition. She also had money. Dart had little and spent it too late and was lost in a sea of other TV commercials.
This year she still has a little more name recognition but I doubt she will have much more dough than Dave. I rate it a toss up with Dave winning by a point.

Comment by Been There Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 3:26 pm
Hard to say. Only if he makes himself recognizable!

Comment by Levois Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 3:30 pm
Topinka wins because miller has no money and no hopes of getting any. He spent every dime he had to barely edge out raja. Miller won’t have any resources to compete in what is a name id race. That race, along with Lisa and Jesse’s will be called by 8pm. And topinka will be the landslide winner

Comment by eastern pol Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 3:55 pm
Of course Miller will win!

Voters will confuse the dentist with well known blogmaster and bon vivant RICH Miller and he’ll win by a landslide!LOL

Comment by PalosParkBob Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 4:08 pm
I think he does have a fairly good chance. JBT is not campaigning that much, and I don’t think she’s really giving a compelling reason for voters to put her back in office. People tend to remember the bad things, like the ugly smear campaign against her in 2006. She could make a case for herself, but I’m guessing she’s out of gas.

There’s also the Green candidate Erika Schafer to consider. She could soak up independents and some of the “I ain’t voting for Topinka” vote.

Comment by PFK Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 4:17 pm
This is an office that is an administrative position (where it exists) in all but 16 states, where it is an elective office. Ask 9 out of 10 people in IL and they probably won’t even know the state has a comptroller. Name recognition is about all it will take here.

JBT also gets the guilt vote from many who helped foist an extra 2 years of Blago misery on themselves and others, and wins somewhere in the 55-60% range, even though Miller appears to be a reasonably good guy for the job.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 4:19 pm
Much of this election at all levels will be decided by SEIU, AFSCME and the Teachers so look at Rep. Millers votes on the pension issue and the budget, plus he may be Rep.Fritcheys “bud” but why did he release his donated staff? its JBT the State needs a salty dog! No offense intended!

Comment by bwana Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 6:19 pm
But for cook county, miller wouldn’t have won the primary. JBT does better than the typical on suburban cook AND city and crushes him in downstate where the only thing more unpopular than a Chicago pol is a Madigan dem chicago pol. This is the year where MJM is toxic and his votes for speaker will finally be an issue which moves voters after years of “hoping” it would matter. Look for a rutherford JBT joint message about holding the line on reckless borrowing.

Comment by gfalkes Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 6:58 pm
David Miller could do it big here if he really wanted to, but does he? He has great bonafides (dentist, elected to his house seat multiple times, married with 2 kids and no scandals, a decent speaker. He just needs to get out there, and work some white ethnic and liberal communities. JBT’s name recognition is worth big bucks, and David doesn’t have either, which is essential for any statewide run. Think of David as… Obama lite, same professional guy, almost identical family, and little on his statehouse voting record. He just needs new management!!!!

Comment by a friend of a friend Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 7:37 pm
I met David in Champaign County over the weekend. In a year when Democrats aren’t really fired up, he gave an awesome speech that really got the crowd going.

To the question, yes, he can beat JBT…if he gets his name out in front of the voters. I think her campaign for governor hurt her with some independents. She has more resources, but if Miller can build up name recognition OR Democrats turn out in higher than expected numbers, he can win.

Comment by BloomingtonDem Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 8:55 pm
No. Too much Blago guilt. Cook County Dems not named Madigan and White have no chance. Of course (as an R), I hope that the unions dump all their money into the race supporting these wonderful state-level Democratic candidates. That should help clean up the State, at least until they can build up the pot again.

Comment by Park Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 9:27 pm
JBT is the closest thing the GOP has to a lock. She wins by 10+

Comment by raising kane Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 9:51 pm
Miller can’t debate like Blago - he sounded out of his league in understanding the comptroller’s jurisdiction in his tv appearances. but he will raise enough funds to compete from traditional democrat donors but he hasn’t really been vetted statewide yet. I’d say JBT in a close race.

Comment by Betsy Tuesday, May 18, 10 @ 10:47 pm

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