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Question of the day long weekend

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…a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly believe taxes will increase in the next four years.

Twin surveys of 600 likely Democratic voters and 600 likely Republican voters also show significant skepticism about candidates who are making a no-tax-hike pledge part of their current primary campaigns.

The poll, conducted Feb. 2-6 by Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect, showed 81 percent of Democrats and 74 percent of Republicans believe an income or sales tax increase is inevitable within the next four years.

Additionally, 75 percent of Republicans and 80 percent of Democrats said they do not believe gubernatorial candidates who say they will not raise income or sales taxes if elected. […]

Of the Democrats surveyed who said they are backing Blagojevich in the primary, at least 80 percent said they distrust an anti-tax pledge and believe an income or sales tax hike is inevitable.

Two-thirds of Oberweis backers and 64 percent of Republicans supporting Brady said they don’t believe candidates for governor when they adopt an anti-tax vow. A total of 73 percent of Oberweis supporters and 68 percent of Brady’s backers said they believe sales and income taxes will be raised in the next four years.

Among Topinka supporters, 77 percent said they believed taxes would go up in the next four years, as did 73 percent of Gidwitz’s backers.

Do you think taxes will rise after the 2006 election, no matter what the candidates promise? Why or why not?

And a bonus question: Should taxes be increased?

posted by Rich Miller
Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 11:13 am

Comments

Taxes will have to be raised and probably will be no matter who is governor… unless we can find something… like a retirement fund to steal all the money from. If the Republicans regain control, maybe they will make budget cuts so taxes won’t have to be raised. Balancing the budget is an important issue… I would rather see taxes be raised than a deficit that gets paid off by the state retirement fund.

Comment by Lovie's Leather Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 12:42 pm
Taxes need an overhaul and an increase. A higher rate would be fine as long as deductions are raised as well not to trap the poor. A youngster claimed by his parents who works part time and makes over $2,000 currently gets the shaft. Also, the flat rate rate makes no sense, higher income brackets should pay more, just like the Federal rates.

Comment by Mr. Ethics Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 1:12 pm
I think taxes need to be restructured, but there really is no reason to raise the overall level of taxation, except by closing a lot of silly loopholes. Illinois government is way too big and doing a lot of things the private sector could do better. We should be leasing tollroads like Indiana wants to to raise a lot of the money to close the pension gap. Illinois needs a taxpayer’s bill of rights.

Comment by Mr. Democrat Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 1:20 pm
Politicans that would live with-in thier means and not do billion dollar give aways to get re-eleted would be a start.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 2:33 pm
Will and should.

Comment by steve schnorf Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 2:38 pm
For all but the wealthiest and poorest taxpayers, an increase in taxes will further hinder our ability to live in a decent neighborhood as housing and utility prices continue upwards, pay for college for our children and fund our retirements, which most of us must do. Except for a government employees and a dwindling number of unionized blue collar employees there is no nanny state in America. And the global nature of the economy, with its downward pressure on middle class wages, is not going into reverse. In other words, we can’t afford a tax increase.

I don’t mind taking care of myself but I do mind
paying even more money to a state government whose expenditures are increasingly irrelevant to my economic security.

Comment by Cassandra Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 2:53 pm
A flat-tax rate does make sense. It says to the people of Illinois that they are equal. No matter if you make $20,000 or $2,000,000. I make very little money now, but someday, I will make more money. I think it is unfair if I get to keep less money when I make a little more. I get a raise, and then see less money because now I am “rich”. People need to realize that with a flat-tax, people that make more will pay more. It is the fairest system that allows for upward mobility. With heavy taxing of the upper-class, upward mobility would be less atractive and make people less willing to take entrepeneurial risks and be job creators.

Comment by Lovie's Leather Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 3:21 pm
Will taxes increase? - Likely

Should they increase? - No. Just more money for the State to waste.

Comment by Making The Wheels Turn Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 4:05 pm
The Dems will keep the House and the Senate. If Blago wins, taxes will increase because if MJM and Emil Jones send him a tax increase bill, Blago would be foolish to reject legislation drafted by two people who were vital to his re-election efforts. If JBT wins, she will veto any tax increase attempt and the Dems won’t have enough of a majority to overturn the veto.

Why do we need a tax increase? To pay for more government programs? Other states around us are keeping government spending in check and are growing while Illinois is expanding goverment services, losing businesses and looking foolish. We already have a horrid school and higher ed system and throwing more cash at the problem isn’t going to do anything. We need to hold the line on taxes and reform government before our elected officials start forcing us to pay more out of our pockets while actually receiving less.

Comment by Team Sleep Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 5:46 pm
JBT would veto a tax increase? Remind the rest of us to never listen to you again since you obv don’t know what you’re talking about.

As my handle suggests, I like to live in the real world. So for the rest of you on Planet Loony or the Moons of Ignoramus, here’s the skinny from Earth: Between pension contributions, education spending, All Kids and now universal pre-K, there is simply NO alternative to a tax increase in the very near future.

Brady, Oberweis, Cassandra and anyone else who takes a no-tax pledge are either liars, idiots, or folks who think the rest of us are extremely stupid.

Hey Steve Schnorf, can I get a Amen?

Comment by Reality Check Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 6:32 pm
There are WAY too many areas in this government that money is wasted - pure and simple. From the “temporary” buildings we’ve been LEASING for 40 years and office space all over this state that is leased to buddies of the powerful, programs like All-Kids at a time we can’t afford it, and unnecessary washing of salt domes by a contractor related to a higher up in government.

It’s going to be really hard to convince the average voter we MUST have a tax increase. It would just be more of our dollars - which have been rather hard to come by recently - straight down the toilet of re-election campaigns for government officials.

What we need is some honesty and trust restored. The poll shows that clearly these last couple of administrations have entirely eroded any trust in government to the point a lot of people think taxes will have to go up to clean up their mess.

That’s a shame.

We don’t need more taxes. We need more responsible leaders in charge of the checkbook.

Comment by Get rid of real waste first Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 7:49 pm
Since costs of Medicaid and pensions rise much faster than revenues, the budget starts in a deficit. Add to that the fact that all pols want a large increase in education spending, and many want new spending programs such as universal preschool.

Given these facts, what is the responsible thing to do?
a) Go even deeper into debt and burden our kids and grandkids with higher taxes for our current consumption.
b) Slow down payments to Medical providers and nursing homes, making them pay for our deficits.
c) Rail against government waste and let someone else solve the budget problem.
d) Call for thoro restructuring of pensions, public education and Medicaid, knowing full well that the Democrat legislative majority will never embrace such reform.

Comment by respectful Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 8:54 pm
Who should we blame for the need of a tax increase?

-increased spending of a billion dollars in each of the last 3 years

-$2 billion in unpaid bills

-worst funded pension system in America

-”All Kids”

-free college for illegal aliens

-billion dollar pension raids

-pre-school for all

-massive raises for AFSME employees including same sex benefits

-$55 million for Daleys broke subways

-$200 million to get a budget passed

-$90 million for college tax credits

I think its pretty clear who caused this deficit and it will be very clear whose responsible for any tax increases. Looks like the down state dems will have to choke down another bad vote.

Comment by anon Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 9:14 pm
Should taxes be raised? Maybe. Will they be? No.

If Blagojevich is re-elected, he will not want to raise taxes because that’s the only thing he has going for him on his national resume. It won’t matter to him how much the state is in debt or what kind of damage he does. He has no intention of staying around anyway, so as long as he has the faintest hope of running for President or Vice-President he will not sign a tax increase bill.

If Topinka is elected, I don’t believe she will sign a tax hike either. Only difference, is she may actually cut or at least quit expanding programs.

Qualifiers: If Blagojevich is indicted and Quinn becomes Governor, he will embrace a tax hike immediately.

No question, Emil Jones will push hard for a tax hike after the election. If Blago is re-elected Jones will split with the Governor on the tax issue very soon after the election. The pressures within the Democratic caucuses in both the House and Senate for a tax increase will be intense after the election and if Blagojevich sticks to the no-tax-hike mantra, the relationship with the legislative caucuses will go from bad to worse.

The Black and Hispanic caucuses have been playing “nice” with Blago before the election because they expect a tax hike afterwards. When they don’t get it, it will be ugly.

The reality though, is that Blagojevich has built so much spending into the base that avoiding a tax hike will be virtually impossible no matter who is Governor. Still, I don’t think either one will do it.

Comment by Old Elephant Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 10:33 pm
Anon 9:14, you recapped very well.

I would accept a tax increase if we repeal all the fee hikes from this administration. I’d probably be money ahead. Being fee’d to death the last three years isn’t any less painfull than an across the board tax increase that everyone would pay.

Repeal the fee hikes, raise the taxes, get rid of all the high paying state jobs and internships that have been created and handed out to campaign contributors, get rid of the private contracts dished out to the same, payback the pension raids, make the Gov. work in the State Capitol and live in the Gov house.

The people of Illinois and this State Government can’t operate any longer with a clueless administration such as this one.

Comment by Anon Sunday, Feb 12, 06 @ 11:46 pm
Reality Check: An amen, except for the liar part. Most of them, because they’ve never been there before, really believe it and mean it when they say it. It doesn’t take long for them to get disabused, but then they’ve got the issue of honoring the pledge, and we’re faced with what we’ve seen in the last 3 years.

Faced with the pledge, it is arguable that no one could have done much better than the Governor in the past three years. I believe no governor could have passed budgets in the past 3 years that would leave us a lot better off in total than we are now.

State education funding could have been increased by less, but all that would have done is drive property taxes up more. Medicaid spending growth could have been slowed a little, but any more than a little would just have driven the payment cycle up more, borrowing from small businesses across the state. Most other spending areas have seen cuts, no increases, or very modest increase.

So, “Amen.”

Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 12:23 am
You can smell Blago’s desperation, Friday he will announce all Illinois children will get a free pony ( urban kids will be assigned a Golden Retriever ).

Bread and circuses, people.

Comment by AllSeniors, AllVets next Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 12:46 am
HEY RICH DO SOMETHING ON THIS PRE-SCHOOL IDEA OF BLAGO’S.JUST WHEN THEY WANT TO UNIONIZE HE HAS FIGURED A WAY TO FIRE ALL OF THEM.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 7:15 am
I simply don’t agree that Illinois residents must or are fated to accept a tax increase. We’ll get a tax increase if we want one. There is no inevitability about it. A strong message to politicians that voters don’t want something
is very powerful. But the message has to be sent.

My point is that taxpayers, except for the “poor”, who get a totally free ride in Illinois, and the wealthy, a tax increase on top of steep increases in utility and housing costs and the need to fund our own retirements (not to mention the reach of the AMT further down into the income strata) make a tax increase truly unaffordable to the middle class, who will get no benefit from the extra funds.

Blago is counting on ignorance to resist cuts in state government spending. True, judging by the savings rate in the country, many citizens haven’t yet realized that they are responsible for their own financial future (you can’t live on Social Security alone) and, since he’s Blago,
the governor is no doubt depending on that ignorance to tax us for more money for programs which will enhance his election chances….free medical care and housing for illegals, free preschool for the rich, hefty salary increase for way underburdened state employees, and other populist programs.

Again, it’s our choice.

Comment by Cassandra Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 7:31 am
We should revisit a tax swap.

Comment by Dawn was right Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 7:34 am
A majority of Illinois citizens WANT a tax increase to impove health care and and better fund education. I hope that after the election Governor Blagojevich and the leaders can come to an agreement to raise the income tax AND sales tax so that important programs like Allkids, tuition tax credits, and education funding reform can be inproved and expanded.
Cassie, if you don’t want to pay your fair share, move to Mississippi.

Comment by Bill Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 9:14 am
anon Sunday, 9:14 - if we wanted Oberweis’ talking points we could just go to his web site.

Comment by SenorAnon. Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 9:47 am
How can taxes not go up? Do the cuts, drop the pork, and it will still not be enough. Going from $9B to $22B debt as discussed on this blog isn’t exactly chump change. A 1% increase would work over time. Won’t like it, but what real choice is there. This would have to come with some very stiff no new spending initiatives.

Comment by zatoichi Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 9:48 am
If there is going to be a tax increase, we should either repeal all the flat fees (utility, insurance, alcohol, tobacco, etc) or index them to inflation. As long as 15-20% of General Revenue comes from per unit taxes, not value based (like the sales tax), the budget will ALWAYS start in a deficit … .

Comment by Smitty Irving Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 10:24 am
An income tax hike is likely unavoidable, given the economic hole (more like canyon) the Democrats have created. Madigan and Jones will not accept spending cuts until they are forced to, and won’t accept much even then.

Given Democratic control of the Legislature, I think the best a new Governor can hope to do is to instigate a budget crisis to force budget cuts as part of a deal to return a semblance of fiscal responsiblity to Springfield.

“Fiscal responsibility” and “Springfield” do not even belong in the same sentence at the current time. We are whistling past the economic graveyard, my friends.

Comment by Bubs Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 12:17 pm
Hey Bubs,
I didn’t hear any complaints from you when King George was spending the state into oblivion. Governor Blagojevich has CUT the size of government whenever and whereever he could and will continue to do so for the next 4 years. 267 days and counting until the governor’s wins re-election.
Bring it on, if possible.

Comment by Bill Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 12:55 pm
The logic of a tax raise is becoming inevitable and if Blago has a tough election, the cost of the tax raise we will need to pay for all the new programs he will annouce will bankrupt us all.

As for much of the populist government bashing in these comments, please note that middle, lower and even upper-class residents do get a lot from state government, including:

*Catching, convicting and imprisoning costs due to the ‘war on drugs’. It’s been going on for twenty years now, and it’s never been cheap.
*Medicaid, which in addition to paying for health care for poor people, is largely devoted to long-term care costs for middle and working class people unlucky enough to need that type of care. The ADA spurred a steep rise in these costs and demographics are adding to the problem.
*The State university system, which, while no longer the bargain it once was, still provides huge subsidies to largely middle and upper class students (See Free to Choose) and, in addition, acts as economic development for towns that wouldn’t exist without the support.

Comment by Anon Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 1:49 pm
It’s silly that people want to defend Blago’s college tax credit when you stop to think that he has damaged the higher education system by underfunding state schools since he’s been in office. It’s great that he wants to fully fund Head Start and elementary schools but we also need to spend more on the U of I, SIU, UIC, etc. to make our grads more competitive in the world market. A tax credit is a band-aid on the wound when you need surgery.

And Bill, I really have a hard time believing that people want to pay more taxes, especially on top of increasing fees and property taxes, to help fund Blago’s pet projects. I can’t get too worked up about having to pay an extra 1-2% percent of my paycheck when I could invest the money in my retirement or get a better healthcare plan for myself.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 3:18 pm
Nearly 40 years of lying politicians…”If elected I won’t raise your taxes” (most of them Republican Governors and legislators.

Signing the “NO TAX INCREASE PLEDGE” to get elected, and then using it for wiping paper after.

Remember Ogilvie’s income tax; Thompson’s “Bilk Illinois”, and the phoney “Thompson Proposition”?

How about Slim Jim’s “Temporary Tax Surcharge” that became PERMANENT… or after bashing Dawn Clark Netsch’s brains out, after the election embracing her “tax swap” idea that would have hiked the income tax 33%?

Don’t forget his campaign to “freeze the property tax multiplier” too.

George Ryan? Too many broken promises and corrupt tax-and-spend schemes to list. Followed by Blagojevich — who is even WORSE!

Any we wonder why the Illinois electorate is skeptical?

Comment by The Colonel Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 4:09 pm
Team Sleep: I’d pay more taxes to fund the Governors programs.

See, you’re wrong!

Comment by B Hicks Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 4:24 pm
We need a sales tax, especially on foreign imports to encourage savings and reinvestment in our local economy.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Feb 13, 06 @ 6:37 pm
All this chat, and no one mentioning that this poll needs to be read by the incumbant governor who thought his no-tax pledge would endear him to voters and ensure his re-election.

What the poll clearly says is that Illinoians would rather have higher taxes than what the governor has done to keep his campaign promise.

This was supposed to be a big selling point for this governor, and it looks like he has once again proven what professional politicos know. He should have raised taxes as soon as he demonstrated that his staff had considered all other options within his first year in office. Blagojevich had instead did a really dumb thing by politicizing every annual budget, every increase, every new program, and every newly employed political hack.

This constant politicizing had created an effect whereby the majority of voters sensed that the governor could not do his job, that the state was in constant budgetary crisis, and that he couldn’t figure out a way to fix it.

Worst, this poll shows that Illinois voters feel that the governor made a fiscal mistake by not raising taxes to cover state finances.

This is simply bad news for the anti-tax Blagojevich message.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 14, 06 @ 11:13 am