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Question of the day

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Illinois

* With the official start of summer upon us, it’s time to recalibrate our campaign handicapping.

* The Question: Predict the outcomes of the races for US Senate and governor and any other statewide races you care to comment on. No need to explain, but it would be nice.

…Adding… Keep in mind, people, that the Green Party is on the ballot for all statewide races. Whitney got 10.4 percent last time around.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:11 pm

Comments

We are at this point of the guberantorial race where both candidates are walking on air like the Road Runner and Wiley Coyote, defying gravity.

What is surprising me is how Brady is still ahead. Not understanding why leads me to predict he will win in November. No other reason.

Kirk will win in November. This latest kerfuffle doesn’t impact voter’s wallets quite like a Broadway Bank failure. Giannoulais perfectly personifies our economic morass to voters.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:18 pm
Kirk will win the Senate since I believe there are still damaging revelations to come about Alexi.

Quinn will win the race even though he does not deserve to since the Brady campaign appears to be inept and the candidate appears to be weak.

Comment by Cincinnatus Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:20 pm
Kirk 52 Alexi 48
Brady 51 Quinn 49

Kinzinger beats Halvorson. Dold beats Seals.
Foster nudges Hultgren.

Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:23 pm
Kirk 52 - 48 over Giannoulias.

Quinn 51 - 49 over Brady. (Brady is too conservative for the collar counties)

Madigan 63 - 37 over Kim

Rutherford 54 - 46 over Kelly

White 60 - 40 over Enriquez

Topinka 56 - 44 over Miller - the original anti-Blago wins easy

Simon vs. Plummer - Who cares? The seat is a waste of money anyway.

Bean over Walsh 61 - 39 - this guy makes more mistakes than Blago!

Comment by A.B. Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:23 pm
Kirk over Giannoulias by 10 points.
As much as neith candidate deserves to win, Quinn will beat BRady by 5 points, solely because Quinn will win Chicago handily and battle in enough urban areas to carry the race. If Dillard were in the race, he would beat Quinn without question.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:27 pm
I’ll go with Kirk..despite bank failure trumps resume inflating.

Gov is a toss up….I’ll go with Quinn although neither guy deserves to be elected.

Comment by Stones Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:28 pm
Kirk wins the Senate seat….Quinn pulls out a victory over Brady but its close…AG hmm im sure they have odds in vegas on this one…SOS ok is anyone else ever going to be SOS? Jesse won all 102 counties in 2002 so go figure, has that ever even been done in Illinois history? Robin wins treasurer..despite her being COS for Alexi she is running her own show and doing a great job as a candidate. Even though i really want Miller to win I think Topinka pulls this one out for comptroller…House..Madigan loses 5 seats….Senate Cullerton loses 1 or 2

Comment by prairiestatedem Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:29 pm
It will be like hearing Howard Cosell…. down goes frazier…
When Kirk beats Alexi
Brady edges Quinn

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:30 pm
Kirk over Alexi
Brady narrowly over Quinn and Cohen takes 20 if he gets on the ballot
Preckwinkle in a romp
Claypool if he has staff change and qualifies for ballot over Berrios
Seals finally wins (narrowly) over Dold
Rutherford beats Kelly
Topinka over Miller (why would he fire his staff after a win????)
White and Madigan hold on.
Foster narrowly wins
Bean and Halverson hold.
Jan Schakowsky will get a little run for her money with Joel Pollack but still win big.

Comment by Independent Minded Dem Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:31 pm
Kirk
Quinn
Topinka
Seals
Bean

Comment by 10th Indy Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:34 pm
Kirk 54%
Brady 51%

Comment by downstate hack Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:43 pm
Kirk 55 / Gian 45
Brady 48 / Quinn 48 Brady wins by about 1000 votes
Madigan walks away with it, 62 - 38
Rutherford 51 - 49
White walks away with in, 62 - 38
Topinka 54 - 46

And my two upset picks:

Suzi Schmidt beats St Senate Michael Bond, 55 - 45
and
Joe Walsh beats Cong. Bean, 50 - 49

Comment by Antiochian Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:44 pm
Kirk 55-45 over Giannoulias
Too much baggage for Alexi and Kirk has a pretty clean record.

Brady 52-48 over Quinn
The Blago trial won’t help Quinn, and as long as Brady keeps talking “jobs, jobs, jobs”, his message will resonate with just enough voters to put him over the top. Also, don’t underestimate the backlash of the 20,000 unemployed teachers and their families this fall. They’ll get their last paycheck in August.

Rutherford 53-47 over Kelly
Rutherford is very charismatic and has a good message, plus he’ll ride the tide.

Madigan 62-38 over Kim
Kim is a sacrificial lamb and Lisa has kept her nose clean.

Topinka 56-44 over Miller
Most liberal GOP candidate cruises to a win with her high name ID

White 64-36 over Enriquez
The Jesse White Tumblers will be out in full force.

Comment by Steve-O Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:46 pm
It is still rather early, but, as of now

Kirk 51, Giannoulias 49
Brady 48, Quinn 47, Whitney 5

The key will be the unaffiliated, non-primary voters, as well as some downstaters who typically vote Democratic. They are going Republican this time.

Comment by Balance Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:48 pm
The only ones I know thus far …

Lisa Madigan
Jesse White
Judy Topinka
Dan Rutherford

All solid wins ….

US Senate and Guv\LG

I wanted to clarifiy WHY i have no clue right now on both:

Both sides & 5 of the 6 (Simon hasn’t shown any true ‘colors’ as a statewide candidate, so i have to reserve her examination till more info is out there …) candidates are so inept, weak (as in not showing any postions of strength!), dopey, and frazzeled … it is going to come down to who is not all those things at the end, or who is the LEAST of those things ….

Sadly, the way all this is unfolding, it would be foolish for me to even guess, given why I can’t even choose who is the ome or all are going to suprise me, and I dunno how that suprise is goig to go, good or bad for them … so, no guess on those, which makes me pathetic, or them pathetic … or both.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:49 pm
I predict summer will begin on June 21. I like the Blackhawks in 6, and the Cubs will finish with a better record than the Sox.

As for the political predictions, my magic eight-ball says to ask again later. I will offer this though, anyone who thinks the winner of the Governor’s race finishes above 50% is dreaming. Low forties will win this thing — you can take that to the bank.

I will go out on a limb here and predict statewide turnout to be low. Very low. Could be historically low, possibly abysmally low, even alarmingly low.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:50 pm
Kirk 50.8 - 49.2 over Giannoulias.

Quinn 52 - 48 over Brady

Madigan 73 - 27 over Kim

Kelly 55 - 45 over Rutherford

White 78 - 22 over Enriquez

Topinka 52 - 48 over Miller

Jan Schakowsly 54 - 46 over Joel Pollak, but Pollak makes it a race suprisingly.

Comment by Niles Township Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:52 pm
First of all the most important prediction is how many charges rod blago and rob blago are found guilty of, how many years they get and what day they go to jail.

I do not know the number of charges or years if some intern could post them in a post tomorrow, to me that’s really the best one.

as a moderate north shore republican my predictions are

Kirk 51-47
quinn 54-46
rutherford 60-40-I really like this guy even though I have never met him.

dold 50.01

comrade jan schakowsky 75-25

Comment by shore Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:55 pm
Kirk by 10 pts
Gov-Quinn by 2 pts. The state loses eitherway.
Blago losses by 12.

Comment by frustrated GOP Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:55 pm
Antiochian - wishful thinking on the Walsh over Bean….Walsh can’t raise any money, so he’s dead in the water.

Comment by A.B. Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 1:57 pm
Governor - Quinn (Brady just can’t win statewide in a two or three horse race. If there were 7 other semi-legitimate candidtes all from Chicago, he’d win hands down.)

Senate - Kirk (The mob ties and the failed bank are going to hurt Giannoulais. Kirk can appeal to suburban women and he’s not crazy like Bill Brady. He’s also got more money in the bank which never hurts.)

Also, “crazy Aunt Judy” will be back in Government… about time, I kind of missed her.

Comment by Ahoy Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 2:01 pm
Kirk 53-47
Quinn 55-45-Brady’s incompetence has yet to shine through
Madgan-67-33
White-71-29
Topinka-55-45-Well known name, was the first anti-Rod
Kelly-51-49

Comment by Rollin' Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 2:13 pm
Brady 47 Quinn 45
Kirk 53 Alexi 46
Jury 12 Blagojevich 0
White Sox 4 Cubs 2

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 2:21 pm
I wouldn’t be surprised if the gubernatorial race splita almost even three ways and Whitney wins by a hair. Then we will all ride bicycles to work.

Comment by Gathersno Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 2:26 pm
The author bears no responsibility for the accuracy of these guesses and shall be held harmless should they prove wrong. And I won’t even dream of attempting percentages.

Kirk
Quinn/Simon
L Madigan
White
Rutherford
Topinka
Speaker Madigan -4
Cullerton -3
Seals
Bean
Halvorson
Hultgren

side note - Sheila could actually be the difference in the Gov race. Did anyone not named Quinn or Simon think that possible when he picked her? I sure didn’t.

Comment by Randolph Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 2:32 pm
Quinn over Brady. Why? Once women understand his views, they’ll vote for Quinn albeit reluctantly.
Alexi over Kirk in a squeeker. Why? He plays well in the immigrant communities; with young voters who don’t care about the bank failure as much as we do; with the “let’s get the Washington incumbents” out.

Comment by North Side Novice Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 2:35 pm
Kirk 54% - Giannoulias 44% - 2% rest of the pack (voters want change and the Democrat represents the status quo although he is trying to paint Kirk as a Washington insider),
Brady 50% - Quinn 45% - Whitney 5% (last time far too many GOP voters voted for Whitney, they won’t make that mistake again-Brady should do better but both candidates at times are their own worst enemies)
Dold 52% - Seals 48% (The Seals name and message is tired, Dold is an underestimated candidate who impresses voters during meetings, only a handful of us in the 10th picked him to win the primary and his win was a stunner to the status quo GOP which has since rallied around him)
Madigan 74% - Kim 26%
White 76% - Rodriguez 24%
Rutherford 55% - Kelley 45% (Giannoulias baggage will sink her)
Topinka 58% - Miller 42% (Voters will make it up to Topinka)

Margin of error: Plus or minus 100%

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 2:36 pm
I predict that the earth will continue to spin so that the sun appears to rise in the east. This will occur daily. I predict we will continue to pay taxes and that death will take us all. I am willing to put money on that, BTW.

Kirk over Giannoulias is fairly easy to predict as well despite the current flap.

Gov race will get very close as the summer closes. PQ is a tough campaigner and just won’t quit. He has proved to be unable to shed his populist leanings and that will be his downfall, I hope. Brady will have to prove himself a better campaigner to weather the storm. The idea that he is too conservative for the collar counties may be true. However, PQ is too wishy washy for us savvy DuPagers. The collar counties will be the key to the election. If Cohen gets in (ok, stop laughing) PQ goes down. Whitney may pull enough votes away from PQ to make a difference. Brady by 1000 votes. And, no, I won’t put any money on that one. Ok, maybe a quarter. (hey, that ain’t much of a bet. Yeah, well, it ain’t much of a race.)

Comment by dupage dan Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 2:38 pm
Alexi over Kirk.
Kirk’s stance on supporting anyone but President Obama, and making him a one termer, in the next Presidential race is a big deal in this state. Kirk is saying he will support Ron Paul, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich or anyone who is nominated by the Republicans over President Obama.

Quinn over Brady. Brady can’t win a statewide race in Illinois. Thank you Southern Illinois Republican Primary voters.

Comment by (618) Democrat Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 2:48 pm
I guess I will be the odd man out. Giannoulis will beat Kirk, 52-48. Kirk’s repeated and inexcusably lying about his military record will be a bigger scandal than Alexi and his bank. Plus Kirk has been in Washington so the anti-incumbent mood hurts him not Alexi. Finally, Illinois is a pretty blue state these days and Alexi starts out with the advantage there.

Quinn vs. Brady Can we throw them back and start over? Since I am predicting Giannoulis will win at the top of the ticket, I will predict that he will help pull Quinn over the top in a close one. Brady is probably too conservative for a lot of moderate GOP voters. Though when it comes to the budget is a bad plan better than a bad, completely unrealistic plan?

Comment by LouisXIV Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 2:48 pm
I think all bets are off on Kirk for a month. The next story is bubbling up and is going to have to be dealt with, one way or the other.

In a tough call, I like Quinn over Brady in a tight race. I’ve yet to see any move Brady has made that will resonate in the suburbs.

At the end of the day, Quinn’s a liberal Irish Catholic school kid from Chicago, and that will still put some big numbers in the bank.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 2:50 pm
Brady 46, Quinn 43, ? 11
.

Comment by conda67 Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 3:07 pm
Losers?: ALL IL citizens & taxpayers.

Comment by sal-says Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 3:27 pm
If the elections were today: Brady 44, Quinn 43, Whitney 13
Whitney hasn’t done much yet to get noticed, but he could get as much as 25-30% of the vote, if he brings in some money, uses it well and marries it with a good message.

I have a gut feeling though that crazy things are going to happen, and not all of today’s candidates will be on the ballot come November. Like Brady dropping out or Plummer dropping out, or something. If Dillard was a replacement on the R ticket for either Gov or Lt Gov, could completely tip the scale.

And I would actually put money down that Alexi will win over Kirk. The gregarious jock will strike again.

Comment by KeepSmiling Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 3:31 pm
Kirk 51 Alexi 49 (this is subject to change, but that’s how I see things right now)
Quinn 48 Brady 43 Whitney 9 (Cohen fails to qualify for the ballot)
L. Madigan 65 Kim 35
White 71 Enriquez 29
Topinka 54 Miller 46
Rutherford 50 Kelly 50
Bean 62 Walsh 38
Seals 52 Dold 48
Halvorson 53 Kinzinger 47
Biggert 58 Harper 42
Hultgren 51 Foster 49
Hare 60 Schilling 40

Comment by Ben S. Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 3:36 pm
I think that the race for both Governor and US Senate will be close. Brady may barely eek out a victory against Pat Quinn and Kirk may win by 51-49 or better. No one will walk away with a landslide. For the most part the governor’s race and US Senate race are somewhat evenly matched. Neither of the major party candidates are overwhelmingly popular.

Comment by Levois Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 3:38 pm
I am going to be daring and predict Gianoullias over Kirk in a close race.

Quinn over Brady easily too. Brady is way to conservative for Illinois.

Comment by Chathamite Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 3:44 pm
I think it’s premature to predict numbers until we know what candidates are on the ballot. There are both minor party and independent candidates seeking to qualify statewide.

I expect them to benefit from protest votes, hostility to incumbents and a general feeling the Illinois GOP is a party in disarray.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 3:45 pm
I predict that MJM is waiting to hear when Rich Miller is planning his annual vacation and will set the return of the House to that time. I predict the Bears will suck this year as will the Cubs and Sox.

I also predict
Kirk
Brady
Madigan
White
Topinka
Rutherford

GOP will take back one of the chambers and BLAGO will go down within 2 days of deliberation.

Last but not least I will be forced to change my nickname on the blog

Comment by He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 3:47 pm
Kirk 54, Alexi 46
Brady 52, Quinn 47
Quinn is already polling poorly in deep southern Illinois, where Blago won big in 2006. Voters in downstate Illinois are motivated to give Brady BIG leads. They will help offset the anemic turnout in the city and collar counties.

Comment by Downstater Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 3:56 pm
Quinn will win modestly over Brady by swamping the pre-election airwaves, especially in Chicago, with ads about Quinn’s social conservatism. They’ll make him look like a wacky right wing bigot who wants to roll back decades of women’s progress in employment and reproductive rights. I wish it weren’t so, I really do. Even if you assume Brady wouldn’t be much better than Quinn (he’s pretty “embedded” in the Springfield porker-at-the-trough culture). But the Democratic porkers have been feeding at the trough to0 long. A change would be refreshing–and entertaining.
And the shock might get our moribund state legislature moving.

Alexi will be riding on Obama’s coattails, which are pretty strong still, and the WH will be directing a lot of resources his way come November. After November, of course, we’ll be
looking straight at the 2012 election. The Dems have to win this seat. And Kirk is helping them out with this ridiculous and embarrassing–and totally unnecessary–resume-puffing. It was close to begin with but how many different ways can we talk about the Broadway Bank failure without folks losing interest.

I too am hopeful for a Judy reprise. She made some mistakes, but she has probably learned some things. And how could I vote for Miller after he bobbled so badly on the pension borrowing vote.
Sure he’s new, but come on. How many clueless pols can we afford in state goverment. Aren’t there new legislator manuals. We’d be better off with Judy.

Comment by cassandra Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 4:32 pm
Sorry, I mean Brady’s social conservatism.

Comment by cassandra Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 4:32 pm
Kirk over Alexi.

Brady over Quinn, but only b/c of 3rd parties pulling from Quinn.

Madigan crushes Kim.

Rutherford solid over Kelly.

White very solid over Enriquez, although Enriquez makes a name for himself for future runs.

Topinka over Miller.

Kinzinger over Halverson by a few points.

Dold over Seals in a squeaker.

Foster over Hultgren by a few points because Hultgren won’t have the stones to go negative.

Hare over Schilling after being given a good run for his money.

Bean soundly beats Walsh after breathing a sigh of relief that the party didn’t dump Walsh & insert senator Matt Murphy instead.

Comment by John Galt Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 4:38 pm
Kirk will win unless he gets cozy with the Republican crazies, e.g., Palin.

Governor is a crapshoot. The Greens and the Libertarians will be spoilers, and it’s unclear who that will hurt yet, as neither Quinn nor Brady are strong candidates.

Comment by lakeview Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 4:39 pm
The Green’s will do better than they should because voters are disgusted with both parties. Still, I think the GOP makes some gains:

Kirk wins comfortably
Quinn wins by a few points
Madigan wins but not by as much as she did in 06
White wins by more than he did in 06 (Enriguez is not nearly as good a candidate as Rutherford was)
Topinka wins by more than 10 points (she may even get to 60%)
Rutherford wins by a couple of points
Cross picks up 5 seats(Hannig, Frielich, Boland and two tbd)
Radogno picks up 3 (deleo, bond and noland)

Comment by right side Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 4:54 pm
As of 6/2/10, gimme:

Kirk over Alexi by 6%
Brady over Quinn by 2% but neither one gets over 45% of the vote
Madigan wins easily
White wins by the biggest margin
Topinka and Rutherford win down the ballot

HOWEVER, I see the following also happening between now and then:

-There will be another candidate replaced (a la SLC) between now and election day in one of the top 2 races; not sure which one, but I think someone is going to drop-out.
-Blago is found guilty after a spectacular trial.
-Another member of the IL congressional delegation is indicted

All of these things will impact the race come election day.

Comment by Logical Thinker Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 4:57 pm
Democrats are taking a trip to the woodshed this fall. Obama’s lack of leadership on the economy and current environmental crisis create a toxic political environment for democrats….

Brady by 5 %

Kirk by 15%

and Blago walks with a hung jury…..

Comment by Louis Howe Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 5:16 pm
Ugh! Rutherford has too much baggage. His wiki page is full of fluffy-lies. Rutherford claims to lead safaris in Africa. His sister covers for his missteps and really runs the show. She should come out of the shadows and run for public office instead of propping-up her brother’s campaign and doing his work for him.

Rutherford reminds of W.C. Fields, in MY LITTLE CHICKADEE with his nose in ‘it’. We can do better. Just ignore Rutherford’s bloated beak and bloated ego. Vote for Robin!

Comment by HatShopGirl Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 6:10 pm
shore–i’m impressed. rutherford’s as conservative as brady is. if rutherford wins, then brady wins with 800% to quinn’s negative 12%

Comment by colt 45 Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 6:35 pm
Kirk is a videotaped serial liar and that should be enough to defeat him.

Comment by obamalac Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 6:50 pm
Kirk 54 -46 over Giannoulias
Brady 56 - 44 over Quinn thank you downstate
Seals 53 - 47 over Dold unfortunately
Keats 51 - 49 Pretwinkle
Pollak 51 - 47 J street Jan
Bean 55 - 45 over Walsh

Comment by Kosherconservative Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 7:27 pm
Alexi 53-47 over Kirk (pending new developments)
Brady 48-43-9 over Quinn and Whitney (Quinn would win in a 2-way)
Seals 56-44 over Dold (Name ID and a good campaign trumps the lack of both)
Madigan and White by landslides (duh)
Miller 52-48 over Topinka (enough people will question her running for a job she wants to eliminate, and if she can’t beat blago…)
Kelly 56-44 over Rutherford (rutherford’s been nowhere campaign-wise, there doesn’t seem to be a strong argument for this race being high-profile, so it reverts to the blue Illinois mean)

Comment by tikkunolam Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 7:41 pm
Kirk over Alexi 52-48, Quinn wins with 43, Brady 42 and Greens 15. Topinka, White, Kelly and Lisa all win.

Comment by illinois democrat Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 7:46 pm
Kirk 53% Alexi 46% Green 1%
Brady 52% Quinn 44% Whitney 4% In the end the combination of a strong downstate support for Senator Brady, Republican smelling blood in the water and the continued budget problems due Governor Quinn in.
down ballot White, Madigan, Rutherford and Topkina win.

Comment by RMW Stanford Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 8:36 pm
Whitney is going to do for Brady what he did for Blago; take away just enough votes from Quinn that Brady will win in a squeaker that looks like the Republican primary with Dillard all over.

Alexi is going to narrowly beat Kirk, not because he’s great, but because the Repubs and the Tea Partiers are going to shoot themselves in both feet this cycle, scaring off the centrist voters.

Comment by Gregor Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 8:50 pm
Brady-Quinn is still a toss up in their race to lose votes…they might succeed in convincing a lot of people to vote for Whitney, but it won’t be enough unless Rich gets some serious financial backing and can run enough ads to look like a winner.

L. Madigan & J. White by large margins

R. Kelly (by just a little)
JBT (by just a little)

To make sure I get at least 50% correct: Mike Madigan, Tom Cross as well as Curry, Bost, Lang, Leitch, Mautino, & Dan Brady will all win reelection to the House! HA!

Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 8:57 pm
Brady/Quinn…depends on Brady. Don’t really know him, but his biggest advantage is that he’s not a Cook County Dem. My guess is that he’s probably just fine. And I think independents will agree. They know that a state governor has nothing to do with abortion rights and that that’s just a red herring.

I think Kirk also, but let’s see if he’s got any more stupid in him. Not hard to beat Alexi G with the latter’s $360MM problem. Everyone understands those kind of numbers.

Otherwise, Lisa M is a lock, both financials go R, and Jesse White takes it. Machine D’s don’t know where the the R button on the machine is, and the smart R’s reward White for his opposition to the Blago/Burris embarrasment. Otherwise, most House seats stay where they are, probable excpetion with Halvorson. She’s over her head.

Comment by Park Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 8:57 pm
Quinn 46, Brady 40, Whitney 10 — Brady will out-gaffe Quinn by a ratio of 3/2 in the next five months
Kirk 51 Alexi 49, Alexi will put up a good fight, but his youth will weigh him down.
Miller will outcampaign Topinka, and that race will be close.

Comment by Quizzical Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 9:06 pm
Kirk will definitely win. Strong campaign versus an anemic campaign.

Brady will have to fight hard, but it is his to lose at this point. Needs $$$

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 10:58 pm
I’ll go out of the box.

Dillard over Quinn by 5 after he is slated to replace Brady, forced out over land development voting scandal.(Don’t laugh. Even in this state apparent crimes just don’t go away.)

Plummer produces tax returns on election night.

Comment by just sayin' Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 11:05 pm
Kirk will win-Alexi was unqualified to be the “state’s banker”-he’s not qualified to fill the Senate seat 55-44

Quinn will win 46-40-6-Brady is unelectable with his anti Cook County, stupid humane society bills, failing businesses (but he’s the jobs candidate?) inept running mate, and his not showing up to vote in the Senate.

Madigan and WHite will win by 25-30 points

Rutherford will lose only because he won’t have the funding to remind people that Kelly is Alexi’s right hand woman.

Topinka will win by 8-and no one will know what her office does.

Comment by ourMagician Wednesday, Jun 2, 10 @ 11:40 pm
===
Topinka will win by 8-and no one will know what her office does.
===

lol Oh, for some reason I don’t think that she’ll allow that to happen.

Exact opposite, IMHO. Some of us will find out for the very FIRST time what that office is SUPPOSED to–or CAN–do for us when run “properly”.

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Thursday, Jun 3, 10 @ 1:25 am
Alexi - 48.5
Kirk - 48.1
Other - 3.4

Quinn - 44.5
Brady - 42.2
Other - 13.3

Comment by Central Illinois Thursday, Jun 3, 10 @ 6:42 am
Alexi - 49
Kirk - 48

Quinn - 45
Brady - 43

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jun 3, 10 @ 8:10 am