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Poll: Kirk loses some momentum

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Illinois
Polls

* After bumping up in April during the uproar over Alexi Giannoulias’ bank problems, Mark Kirk is back down to where he was before, according to a new Rasmussen poll. The numbers in brackets are from previous Rasmussen polls conducted April 28, April 5, March 8 and February 3…

Kirk: 42% [46%, 41%, 41%, 46%]

Giannoulias: 39% [38%, 37%, 44%, 40%]

Other: 7% [5%, 8%, 5%, 4%]

Unsure: 12% [12%. 13%, 10%, 10%]

That downward dip follows a steady barrage of news stories about his puffed up military service claims. But he’s still very much alive and even well, considering Giannoulias continues to trail. Giannoulias has also spent big money on TV, which hasn’t moved his own numbers up much, but have at least kept him from sinking lower.

Rasmussen asked two questions about the military service reports…

* How closely have you followed news reports about Mark Kirk and his military service?

27% Very closely
35% Somewhat closely
18% Not very closely
16% Not at all
3% Not sure

* In terms of how you will vote this November, how important are Mark Kirk’s misstatements about his military record?

27% Very important
36% Somewhat important
21% Not very important
11% Not at all important
4% Not sure

It would’ve been nice if the pollster asked whether they believed Kirk or not. No dice, however.

* More from the pollster…

While Kirk earns majority support from men in Illinois, Giannoulias holds the edge among women.

Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, Kirk holds a 50% to 24% lead.

Kirk also has a slight advantage with intensity. While 15 percent have a “very unfavorable” view of Kirk, 23 percent have a “very unfavorable” view of Giannoulias. And while 13 percent have a “very favorable” view of Kirk, just 9 percent feel that way about Giannoulias.

* Most voters, by the way, don’t think this Senate campaign is any different from years past…

Is this year’s Senate campaign in Illinois more positive than most, more negative than most, or about the same as most recent elections?

7% More positive
18% More negative
68% About the same
7% Not sure

Methodology…

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on June 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

* Meanwhile, Kirk’s campaign is trying to connect Giannoulias to the state’s bond rating. From a press release…

The Kirk for Senate campaign today called Moody’s decision to downgrade Illinois’ credit rating a “major wake-up call” to voters as they consider their choice for U.S. Senate.

Yesterday, Moody’s lowered Illinois’ general obligation bond rating to A1, which is four notches below AAA.[1] The move came after the General Assembly failed to address the state’s structural budget imbalance for the coming fiscal year.[2] Meanwhile, as Springfield struggles with the state’s ballooning debt, the state’s banker remains silent.

“Our state is in fiscal crisis and our state’s banker is nowhere to be found,” Kirk campaign spokesperson Kirsten Kukowski said. “While Congressman Kirk voted against wasteful government spending and backed efforts to balance the budget, Alexi Giannoulias stands by and watches as our state’s credit rating drops lower and lower.”

* Related…

* Durbin cites Mark Kirk military embellishments in fund-raising pitch for Giannoulias

* Sierra Club Illinois backs Giannoulias

* GOP’s Mark Kirk Slips in Illinois Senate Race After Questions About Military Career

* New Poll Shows Mark Kirk’s Numbers Dip Slightly - Most say misstatements on record important

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 11:58 am

Comments

Which Illinois spending policies did Giannoulias vote for?

Of the policies that created a trillion dollar federal deficit, which did Kirk vote for?

Kirk is still expecting the media to swallow his bamboozling without being questioned. We’ll see.

Giannoulias could have done more to speak against irresponsible policies by the governor and legislature.

But Kirk was not only voting for the irresponsible spending in Washington, he was advocating for it.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 12:24 pm
Perhaps Kirk should enlighten the rest of us on the role of the treasurer in setting state fiscal policy. Maybe he misremembered his Illinois Constitution. Or maybe it’s just a cynical misrepresentation. Or maybe he doesn’t know.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 12:29 pm
=== ….the role of the treasurer in setting state fiscal policy ===

Well, it’s a lot more closely related than the ST getting involved in the state’s environmental policy, which the Sierra Club is all agog over.

Comment by Team America Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 12:32 pm
Apples and bowling balls, TA, and you know it. The state treasurer has no role in state fiscal policy — it’s just the GA and the Governor.

Do you think Kirk knows that?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 12:36 pm
Well - there ya go.
Felt that? That was the bump!
Onward.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 12:39 pm
Word, didn’t Alexi sign off on a ton of short-term borrowing? That is one of the things Moody’s looks at when considering a downgrade.

Comment by raising kane Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 12:44 pm
===That is one of the things Moody’s looks at when considering a downgrade. ===

Not.

That borrowing is cash flow borrowing which has to be paid back during the same fiscal year.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 12:46 pm
No wonder the numbers haven’t changed much. To most people, it’s still a bank crook from the party that’s been running the state into the ground the past eight years against a nonentity with an aura of sleaze from the party that was previously running the state into the ground. It’s enough to make you excited about the governor’s race.

Comment by Excessively Rabid Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 12:50 pm
Well, it’s a lot more closely related than the ST getting involved in the state’s environmental policy, which the Sierra Club is all agog over.

TA… how is an endorsement the same as attacking a candidate over policy issues that he has had little/no role in?

Comment by dave Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 12:51 pm
they do look at borrowing that rolls from year to year which is what Illinois has been doing. We borrow then from April 1 to June 30th we cant pay any bills because we are repaying the short term notes. And wallaaa early July we borrow all over again to pay the backlog. And yes, Rich, they do look at that.

Comment by raising kane Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 1:07 pm
how is an endorsement the same as attacking a candidate over policy issues that he has had little/no role in?

I guess the point was that if the ST shouldn’t get undeserved blame for setting state financial policy, he shouldn’t get undeserved credit for being a great “environmentalist”…or something like that.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 1:25 pm
He used brite start money to obain a hybrid SUV, so he is an enviromentalist

It is interesting that the GOP and various commentors here had no problem with the enviromental endorsements when Kirk had them…

Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 1:28 pm
I guess the point was that if the ST shouldn’t get undeserved blame for setting state financial policy, he shouldn’t get undeserved credit for being a great “environmentalist”…or something like that.

That doesn’t make any sense. Environmental groups have endorsed Alexi because they believe that he will be a better vote for their policies.

Kirk is attempting to attack Alexi for something that he had no role in.

The two are not at all similar.

Comment by dave Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 1:52 pm
The Democrat stimulus plan hasn’t created any new jobs.

The construction workers that you think you see on the expressway are actually mirages due to space madness or memories telepathically implanted by an Enaran.

http://twitter.com/CaptKirk4Senate

Comment by Capt. Kirk for Senate Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 1:56 pm
So is this the big “board of directors” story that everyone’s been gossiping about?

http://www.kwqc.com/global/story.asp?s=12622366

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 1:58 pm
I guess even the electorate in IL can take only so many lies and/or embellishments from a candidate…this race is far from over, and I am tired of it already…maybe the candidate from East St. Louis will make this race even more interesting/difficult to predict the outcome…

Comment by Loop Lady Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 2:16 pm
We’re 12 months into a 17 month rodeo and Kirk is demolishing alexi in fundraising, has already defined alexi, has no powerhouse general election challenger from the right, has managed to at least grudgingly win over his conservative base opposed to him on several issues and has a small but decided lead-in a blue state.

I think if you had told the powers that be at team kirk-rich goldberg, patrick magnuson, erik elk ect that they would have that scenario as they headed into the last weeks of q2 fundraising they would have taken it in a heart beat.

Comment by shore Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 2:31 pm
==
has managed to at least grudgingly win over his conservative base opposed to him on several issues
===

You sure about that, shore? Some seem to think that he’s ignored them entirely.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 2:42 pm
Who’s been reaching out to them, shore?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 2:43 pm
Goldberg, Magnuson, Elk?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 2:44 pm
I am not part of the kirk campaign, I do not know how many illinois nra meetings or illinois review town halls he has had. I have not seen stories to the effect of headlines stating “conservative revolt threatens kirk fall chances” or “conservatives angry with kirk raising large amounts of money, recruiting challengers”. His outreach to them is unclear to me. What is clear is that they don’t seem to be going to the press telling them they aren’t going to help in the fall, a story I am more than sure the press has on its radar in case they start to sense it gaining legitimacy.

those are the names on the emails sent to supporters.

Comment by shore Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 2:51 pm
Some even seem to be saying that they’re finding it amusing that while the “base” have been ignored and Party allegiance has been “vague”, Kirk is now losing whatever support he had on the left.

Can’t say at this point that I agree, but find the sentiment…interesting.

So what are Goldberg, Magnuson, and Elk doing about that, or do they think it’s a non-issue?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 2:52 pm
I don’t think they’re going to call on his to step down at this point, even though some “outsiders” seem to be pushing real hard for that story right now.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 2:56 pm
candidates with leads don’t step down.

Comment by shore Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 3:01 pm
Somebody seems to want the story badly, though. And in this election, it’s very difficult to determine exactly who that is. That’s probably why they’re not “falling for it”.

That, and I’m sure all of Goldberg’s, Magnuson’s, and Elk’s outreach.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 3:07 pm
RK, here’s what Moody’s said:

–”The legislature’s failure to enact recurring budget-balancing measures is consistent with recent years, when infighting between the executive and legislative branches caused budget delays and allows both the erosion of the state’s finances and the widening of severe pension funding gaps,” the investors service said in a report.
“The longer the solutions to the state’s challenges are deferred, the more difficult they will become to implement,” the report said.–

No state treasurer there, no mention of cash-flow borrowing. I suspect Kirk knows that.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 3:10 pm
Welcome to Illinois, shore. Get out of your District…much?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 3:19 pm
Isn’t it interesting, shore, that when someone like…let’s say Proft…does a few one or two hour radio shows that are very, very PRO-Kirk–and someone asks staffers on the “Kirk Team” whether they heard the show and what a great job Dan did, they no absolutely NOTHING about it?

You’d think they’d at least pretend and be interested in the details.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 3:32 pm
Word, what do you think “The longer the solutions to the state’s challenges are deferred” means? How do we defer them? We borrow and we steal from the pension funds. It is the Illinois way. And Alexi has been part of that “borrow and spend” culture. In fact, his signature has helped enable it.

Comment by raising kane Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 3:48 pm
Every business and government does cash-flow borrowing, like a line of credit. That’s not what Moody’s is talking about.

Last I checked, the state treasurer doesn’t make appropriations to the pension funds.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 3:51 pm
Kirk’s strategy from day one seemed to be to use Broadway Bank as the means to convince enough Democrats that Alexi isn’t a viable candidate. And in fact lots of Democrats have never had a problem with Kirk. There are more Ds than Rs in Illinois so this would seem to make sense, at least from an opportunistic perspective.

But I think that whole Kirk strategy is in tatters now. All of the misremembering about his military record has Kirk just as muddy as Alexi, if not more so.

Plus, Kirk was counting on Republicans to fill any gaps by automatically voting for the guy with the R. But now there will be many Republicans who either stay home, skip that race on the ballot, or vote for an independent if a credible one makes it on the ballot.

Comment by just sayin' Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 3:55 pm
word, I don’t know a lot about much. But I have been involved with state finances for years and have been in the meetings with representatives of the rating agencies. I can tell you from first hand experience that continued over-reliance on short term borrowing to try to mask a structural deficit does play a large role in their evaluation. Alexi has been all too willing to go along and get along on that. He isnt responsible for all or even most of the states financial problems but he does have some responsibility there.

Comment by raising kane Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 4:16 pm
One point that Moody’s does look at is the assets that an entity controls.

AG’s sale of state assets ( a certain hotel comes to mind) created a scenario where the state of Illinois had fewer assets to off set their debt. When you take into account that many believe some of those assets were sold at below market value, you then realize that impact on the total debt to asset ratio.

Additionally, the strength and stability of an entity’s investments also play in the rating. That is also an aspect of the treasurer’s office…see the Bright Start Program for details. )

Comment by A.B. Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 4:24 pm
A.B.,

I’ll give you the hotel sale point. It was a bad deal overall. But still, your Moody’s argument is patheticly weak.

At most, the Giannoulias hotel deal left a couple of million on the table. At the end of the day, this is so ridiculously minor that it never would have gotten on Moody’s radar screen.

The state owns billions in assets. Hundreds of billions. Stick to the bad deal that was the hotel sale, but don’t inflate it as a factor in a rating downgrade. We’re not stupid.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 4:39 pm
“…continued over-reliance on short term borrowing to try to mask a structural deficit does play a large role in their evaluation.”

Then they would reference it in their report. I’ve been around the rating agencies quite a bit myself. Cash-flow borrowing doesn’t mask any deficit in any way. They look at both sides of the ledger. It’s not that big a deal in the great scheme of things, not with this revenue meltdown. Read their report.

If that’s all you have to hang a ratings downgrade on the state treasurer, you’re reaching. It’s the GA and the gov, as the rating agencies know and wrote.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 4:51 pm
Really Durbin, you really shouldn’t say anything about any serviceman. It didn’t go so well for you last time.

Comment by Zoble21 Wednesday, Jun 9, 10 @ 10:48 pm