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Poll: Brady leads Quinn 47-36

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* According to Rasmussen, Bill Brady’s position is improving, probably because of a decent amount of TV ads run by Brady and the Republican Governors Association. However, the 4-point movement since the last poll in April is within (just barely) the poll’s margin of error. Numbers in brackets are from previous Rasmussen polls taken on April 28, April 5 and March 8…

Brady: 47% [45%, 45%, 47%]
Quinn: 36% [38%, 38%, 37%]
Some Other Candidate 8% [5%, 7%, 6%]
Not sure 10% [11%, 10%, 9%]

From the pollster…

Despite Brady’s narrow primary win, he now has the support of 80% of Republican voters. By comparison, Quinn who also narrowly defeated a primary challenger gets just 60% of Democratic votes. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Republican by better than two-to-one.

As I told subscribers months ago, this race is closer than the toplines make it appear for that very reason. Quinn will eventually heal the primary’s wounds, particularly when he begins to define Brady. If Quinn was getting 80 percent of the Democratic vote right now, this thing would be within single digits. Quinn’s big problem, however, is that his intensity of support is so low among his own base, as those Rasmussen (and other pollsters’) results clearly show.

* Favorables for Quinn…

Very favorable 12%
Somewhat favorable 30%
Somewhat unfavorable 24%
Very unfavorable 28%
Not sure 6%

Favorables for Brady…

Very favorable 14%
Somewhat favorable 33%
Somewhat unfavorable 18%
Very unfavorable 15%
Not sure 21%

Lots more not sure about Brady than about Quinn, which is predictable. Also, Brady’s very faves and very unfaves are equal, while Quinn’s very unfaves are well more than twice his very faves. Not good for the incumbent.

* Quinn also doesn’t exactly inspire confidence…

How confident are you that Governor Pat Quinn will make the right choices when it comes to cutting state spending?

8% Very confident
29% Somewhat confident
29% Not very confident
31% Not at all confident
4% Not sure

And his job approval numbers haven’t moved much…

How would you rate the job Pat Quinn has been doing as Governor… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

8% Strongly approve
34% Somewhat approve
23% Somewhat disapprove
34% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure

* Methodology…

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on June 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 10:50 am

Comments

21% not sure about Brady is a lot. I imagine as more people get to know Brady and his too-far-right beliefs those folks (and others) will shift to Quinn. One also has to think once the Quinn campaign gets to work (e.g. putting out TV ads) the numbers will change too.

Comment by jonbtuba Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 11:00 am
I cannot believe this is happening.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 11:03 am
Sen. Brady isn’t far right. He voted for the law that allows illegal aliens to attend state universities and pay in-state tuition. If he was very conservative, he would have voted against that law.

Comment by Conservative Veteran Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 11:08 am
Quinn’s and Brady’s numbers have been fairly consistent since the polling began a few months ago. As we get closer to the election. more polling data will become available and we will then be able to compare it to the Rassmussen trends.

One thing about Rassmussen’s methodology is that it tracks shifts in voter attitude more quickly than other pollsters. That the trends have not shifted indicates to me that people are not really paying attention to this race, yet. I will be paying more attention to polling during the Dog Days. Right now, I think this race is there for either candidate to win or lose.

Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 11:08 am
Rich, is anybody but Rasmussen polling this and the Senate race? Nate Silver’s research shows Rasmussen’s polls in this cycle tend to favor the GOP candidate by ~5 points compared to the norm. (This is not necessarily “bias” - those interested should read http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/is-rasmussen-reports-biased.html and other posts tagged “rasmussen” at 538 - but something to keep in mind). Also, Silver dings Rasmussen for its failure to comply with industry standards on transparency. It would be good to have some other polling to compare to Rasmussen’s view on these races.

Comment by A Na Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 11:11 am
Um, the above was me.

Comment by A Naughty Moose Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 11:12 am
A lot of people may not make up their minds until November. They’ll stand in the voting booth and ask themselves whether to vote for the guy of questionable competence or the one who has ideas consistent with the early 1900’s.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 11:22 am
Having survived 6 years of Blago, I guess IL could survive either of these 2 guys for 4. After the election of 2006, I will not be surprised whichever way this election goes. And I believe the Rasmussen poll is as good a read as anything at this point.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 11:25 am
Conservative Veteran, you’re being too selective. Brady is as far anti-choice as one can go, having argued against abortion even in cases of rape and incest. He’s against equal pay for women because he feels the market can take care of itself, yet he’s for allowing religious discrimination in workplaces, He thinks all government assistance is welfare…unless it’s for businesses like the ones he owns. He thinks our flat rate income tax (the lowest in the nation) isn’t low enough in spite of the state’s revenue issues.
Seriously, do you not remember Rich’s post about this site? http://www.whoisbillbrady.com/

Comment by jonbtuba Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 11:40 am
I’ll be the first to say that it’s ridiculous that Whitney isn’t included. “Other Candidate” doesn’t poll at 8% when there’s only two ballot qualified candidates. There’s three in this race, and it just makes their results look incomplete.

Comment by Sacks Romana Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 11:45 am
Blago and Quinn have touched everyone in the state’s lives with their incompetence and outright corruption.

Brady may be to the right of the median voter in Illinois, but don’t underestimate the “change” factor in making people care less about abortion and other social issues.

Comment by downstater Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 11:48 am
Rasmussen polls (especially polls this far in advance of an election) tend to have a house effect in favor of GOP candidates compared with other pollsters. In part that is because Rasmussen doesn’t poll registered voters, but “likely” voters, based on a proprietary model he refuses to divulge. When it gets closer to the actual election, Rasmussen’s numbers come back to the norms and tend to wind up being pretty good.

So basically at this stage Reasmussen polls serve as a house organ for GOP candidates, giving them good numbers to tout. Because of Rasmussen’s reliability in final predictions (the only ones that can really be verified) and the sheer volume of polling they do, the media relies on them without distinguishing these issues or where we are in the election cycle.

And I wholeheartedly second that anyone who wants to know about polls and why/how a single pollster’s numbers are essentially valueless in isolation should check out www.fivethirtyeight.com. However, you should know Silver & company are about to get rolled into the New York Times so no idea what the free coverage will be like in a few months.

Comment by Berkeley Bear Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 11:51 am
So basically at this stage Reasmussen polls serve as a house organ for GOP candidates, giving them good numbers to tout. Because of Rasmussen’s reliability in final predictions (the only ones that can really be verified) and the sheer volume of polling they do, the media relies on them without distinguishing these issues or where we are in the election cycle.

Is this what happened in 2006 and 2008?
No.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 12:05 pm
Sacks Romana -

Yeah, well, you are also going to be the last guy to say that it’s ridiculous Rich Whitney wasn’t included.

Comment by Lester Holt's Mustache Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 12:07 pm
Berkeley Bear,

Rasmussen’s best use at the early stages of polling to to watch the trends and ignore the raw numbers which become more accurate as the election nears (as you so clearly state). By following Rasmussen closely, I think you can see the ongoing dynamic of a race with more clarity than any other polling.

Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 12:16 pm
==He thinks all government assistance is welfare==

Um, all government a$$istance is welfare, in fact, it is the definition of welfare.

Comment by Bobby Hill Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 12:34 pm
jonbtuba,

It is difficult for me to believe that social issues will really play any roll in this election except at the margins.

Economy/jobs and spending/deficit/debt is polling across the U.S. (and I see no reason to think differently in Illinois) as the biggest items on American’s minds. In Illinois, we can throw in corruption, and we pretty much cover the entire electorate. Any candidate who focuses on anything but those three items is nuts. Jim Carville’s advice to Clinton is every bit as relevant today, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 12:44 pm
Quinn better get on tv. He’s letting Brady define both candidates. Internet videos don’t cut it.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 12:56 pm
===Any candidate who focuses on anything but those three items is nuts===

Anyone who thinks that a Democratic candidate running against somebody like Brady won’t use social issues to fire up his base is nuts. Sorry, just sayin…

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 1:00 pm
wordslinger,

Quinn’s last disclosure has him with $1.2M cash on hand. Not much in the big scheme of things…

Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 1:03 pm
Rich,

Do you really think that this election cycle hinges on social issues? I think that is an incorrect interpretation of voter concerns in this particular election cycle. Those individuals needing to get fired up on social issues will not affect this election in any meaningful way. The vast middle of the electorate is concerned about the three issues I mentioned. If a candidate were flushed with cash (Quinn isn’t) then they could divert assets to the social issues. I would recommend my candidate to focus on the largest number of voters that could be swayed, and this year that group care only about fiscal issues and corruption. Who will be more motivated to vote, those concerned with the bottom line, or those pro-abortion advocates that are undecided about Brady. Exit polling will tell…

Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 1:10 pm
===Do you really think that this election cycle hinges on social issues?===

Did you not read that poll? Quinn only has the support right now of 60 percent of Democrats. If he doesn’t use social issues to crank up that base, he’s an idiot.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 1:13 pm
Actually, Brady doesn’t think ALL government assistance is “welfare.”

He voted AGAINST holding corporations that receive taxpayer subsidies accountable for the jobs they promised in return.

AND of course he was happy to collect taxpayer subsidies for HIS business’s income.

Bill Brady’s definition of “welfare” seems to be government assistance for other people.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 1:14 pm
VM,

Actually, that is exactly what happened in 2006 - Rasmussen pulled back to the field as the election neared. In 2008 the same thing happened, but Rasmussen was still out to the right on the final numbers. He had really good final numbers in 2004. Since 2008 his “likely voter” numbers have consistently been out of line with every other poll to the right. You watch - they will conform much closer to the norm when we get to Sept/October than they are now.

Following Rasmussen for the actual numbers at this stage is absurd. It can be a trending document, but that’s not how the media uses it.

Comment by Berkeley Bear Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 1:15 pm
PQ won’t get far if he focuses on the 3 things Cinci says he must. He has little to show for his 1+ year in office in regards to those issues. What he has left is the social issues. But, his base is as fired up as it can be, I think. It is reflected in the poll numbers he is getting. The base can’t elect PQ, even in this blue state. The more fiscally conservative dems along w/others have been lost to anti-incumbent fever. PQ can do little about them. He can’t attract independents for the same reason. That Brady has such a lead with those “hardened” numbers is a reflection of that reality. Just sayin’…

Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 1:16 pm
dupage dan,

I think you are making my point for me! Quinn’s base is already fired up as best it can be, as you say. And the only people left are the people for whom the economy is a major issue. This will become even more true when we near the election without any appreciable change in the state of the economy and unemployment.

Quinn needs to paint Brady as unrealistic with no economic plan, and establish his creds on fiscal management of the budget (no easy task) and his plan to rein in spending.

I would advise Quinn to start trying to make sense of the last session of the GA, hang blame on whomever he can (Dems included, Republicans preferred) and create a message (spin) that he has the plan for Illinois. Brady’s job is a bit easier in that his paw prints aren’t on this budget mess as much as Quinn’s. Brady can snipe at-will, and his ad buys can just show Quinn’s face over a graphic of the budget deficits and debts.

Reporters will ask Brady about his plan for budget fixes, and he can mention a few things that are at the margin. Reporters would squawk (rightly so) but the argument that he has no plan will not stick with the electorate as much as will Quinn having presided over the budget mess.

The candidate who shows himself to appear to have the best economic plan for the state, without having the stench of corruption around him, wins this race.

Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 1:35 pm
It’s way early. Voters simply don’t know Brady yet.

Comment by just sayin' Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 1:45 pm
This campaign will be about Quinn performance. Unless the voters perceive that the fiscal order of the State is improving, Quinn is toast. I really think he needs the pension borrowing bill to pass and pass soon. Not only is it sensible policy it also gives him a strong argument he is doing something while Brady has no plan.

Comment by downstate hack Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 1:56 pm
===This campaign will be about Quinn performance===

People always say that about incumbents, but it doesn’t always work out that way.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 2:03 pm
Correct, Rich. A successful campaign is one that can manage the PERCEPTION of the candidate and his opponent. My posts herein are my suggestions on the areas that both Quinn and Brady need to manage the perceptions shown to the electorate.

Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 2:11 pm
Why do you use of quotes around “welfare”? If his definition of “welfare” is assistance for “other” people then he is “mistaken”. “Welfare” is “welfare”, is “welfare”. No matter who is the recipent.

For example most parents put thier children in the “welfare” program known as “public education” AND of course they are happy to collect taxpayer subsidies for THIER family.

The issue with welfare is nobody likes it when other people (like you implied with Mr Brady or the holding companies) get welfare. Especially when the welfare state is $13B in the whole.

Comment by Bobby Hill Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 2:37 pm
that’s hole…

Comment by Bobby Hill Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 2:38 pm
All of this talk about how Quinn should focus on taxes/deficit instead of social issues may well end up being correct. In case nobody noticed BRADY DIDN’T PAY ANY TAXES WHATSOEVER LAST YEAR!!!!

Just wait, I’m sure the charge of “tax cheat” will eventually come up, probably by an outside group instead of Quinn. I can just picture it now: Brady spending all of October explaining how -technically- even though he didn’t pay any taxes on his business, or his taxpayer-funded Senate salary, there isn’t anything hypocritical about that because of section blah, article blah, IRS code blah blah blah…

Also, is wanting to put puppies/kittens in gas chambers a social issue, or a fiscal issue because it saves on the cost of needles and whatnot?

Comment by Lester Holt's Mustache Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 2:41 pm
–The candidate who shows himself to appear to have the best economic plan for the state, without having the stench of corruption around him, wins this race.–

Cincy, if both candidates were starting with a clean slate then maybe so. But I think the current polling may reflect the belief of voters that if Quinn has in his head a hells-a–poppin economic plan for the state–then what is it, and why haven’t we seen it in the last 15 months he’s already been in office?

Comment by Responsa Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 2:44 pm
BRADY DIDN’T PAY ANY TAXES WHATSOEVER LAST YEAR!

Yeah - that’s been spun. It looks like voters are focusing on their own personal reality, not spun political reality. Quinn must shift the debate into ideology or he’s toast.

The facts are bad for our incumbant. He has to win ugly by attacking Brady on ideology. It is going to be similar to what Reid has to do to Angle in Nevada. If voters vote on their own personal concerns economically, Quinn is gone.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 2:45 pm
Baloney, you do a commercial right, say man on the street interviews asking people if they would be better off if they could get away with not paying any taxes at all. Mention how wants to cut funding for (insert whatever services that person uses). Sad images of little kids in crowded classrooms (maybe track down the lady that yelled at Quinn yesterday), disabled people losing the help they need, etc. etc.

I’m no media consultant, but it seems that would be a heck of a lot more than “spun political reality”.

Comment by Lester Holt's Mustache Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 2:55 pm
Cinci,

You had stated that PQ had to focus on the 3 items you mentioned. I said he can’t because he has no credibility in those areas. I hardly think I was making your point for you.

You then push the idea that PQ has to push at Brady about his economic plan. Brady has only to provide some general phrases about fiscal responsibility and a move away from the failed policies of the previous administrations. Anti-incumbency will handle the rest. PQ can NOT win by attacking Brady on issues PQ has done little to address. It is a NON-STARTER. PQ is toast.

Attempts to besmirch BB with the social issues are ALL that’s left to PQ. He will come off as desperate and petty. As long as Brady sticks to the simple change/fiscal restraint message he wins. People can, and will, overlook many of the conservative views that Brady has and pull the lever for him because they are terrified of 4 more years of Wafflin’ Pat Quinn.

Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 3:46 pm
Mr Mustache,

You just stick with that if it makes you feel better. Sometimes, fantasies are all we have left in a troubled world. Maybe you could move to Oklahoma - we have a poster here who thinks that’s the best way to handle Illinois.

Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 3:48 pm
LOL, right…..

Comment by Lester Holt's Mustache Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 4:42 pm
Well Lester Holt’s Mustache, it’s the end of the day and it looks you were right. No one else here seemed to think it was significant to comment on Whitney. But honestly, who else do you think that 8% represents? There was a time when people gave the Greens flak for not being able to poll above 3%. The threshold is usually 5% to be included. Why not simply include Whitney and put a name to that number. I mean, I guess they could have oversampled domestic abusers and that 8% is all for SLC. Either way it would be nice to know.

Comment by Sacks Romana Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 5:06 pm
I don’t think it represents anyone else but him. As a matter of fact, I’m surprised Whitney isn’t doing better, considering the way things are in Illinois.

I would give it a few months if I were you. Quinn isn’t popular, and it probably isn’t going to get much better for him anytime soon. And regardless of how optimistic these professional political consultants here on the board are, Illinois has ever only elected moderate republicans. Illinois isn’t about to elect a guy who wouldn’t be out of place in Alabama or SC.

Comment by Lester Holt's Mustache Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 5:20 pm
This campaign is really simple. What do you fear more: four more years of PQ or four years of BB. If Pat can make people fear Brady more, he wins. If not, he loses.

Since he’s done NOTHING to make people fear Brady so far, I would say he’s hasn’t made the slightest dent in Brady.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 6:05 pm
Social issues will not work this cycle, in my opinion DD. Voters are tired of the bad economy, debt, spending and unemployment. A campaign that does not focus on these is spinning its wheels, which is my point and I think yours. Quinn attacking Brady on social issues is a waste of time since the voters just won’t give a damn.

Corruption charges will work, especially in this state. This may be one prong of Quinn’s strategy.

Wild card: How much fire remains in Mayor Daley’s belly. I think that, since he will probably retire (hello, Mayor Emmanuel), not much remains. Without an all-out effort on Daley’s part to bring out the troops for Quinn, Quinn has a long road ahead.

Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 6:18 pm
VM

I think “spin” must be your favorite word.

By the way, I believe the other day I read you claim to be a Dem but it seems like more often than not here you’ve sounded an awful lot like a pretty straight conservative … and the Twitter account you set up and haven’t used since last year would lead one to think you were too.

So what are your politics?

To the issue of the post, it does seem interesting that Brady has definitely been campaigning and spending (or having others spend for him at least) and yet he seems to have not really caused any significant movement in the numbers.

Comment by ShadyBillBrady Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 9:10 pm
Shady–your right I can’t believe Brady’s not at least in the upper 50’s or maybe even in the low 60’s? Really just because Quinn’s the incumbent, and there are third party candidates and the election isn’t for 3 months so there are a few undecided go figure. No doubt about it support brady you don’t do you?

Comment by Yeahright Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 10:26 pm
{Did you not read that poll? Quinn only has the support right now of 60 percent of Democrats. If he doesn’t use social issues to crank up that base, he’s an idiot.}

Are you suggesting mutual exlcusivity here? Do you mean to suggest that if he does use social issues to crank up the base, that is confirmation that he is not an idiot; or even uf he does is there stil room for doubt?

Comment by Pass the Buck Thursday, Jun 10, 10 @ 11:53 pm
I used to come here for news. Now I come here for comedy. Four months so far of why all the polls are wrong and Quinn is seriously in a better position than Brady because people with a fetish for Dillard don’t personally know anyone who’d ever even consider Brady. Any of you related to Pauline Kael?

Comment by T.J. Friday, Jun 11, 10 @ 1:13 am