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* As I told subscribers this morning, a new Public Policy Polling survey of Illinois voters has some very bad news for Mark Kirk…
The recent controversy regarding statements Kirk has made about his military service seems to be taking a large toll on him. Only 10% of voters in the state think Kirk has been truthful about his military service while 45% think he has lied and 45% are unsure.
Oof. Partisan breakdown…
Almost nobody is buying into Kirk’s story.
The bright side, such as it is…
The good news for Kirk is that only 22% of voters say they’ve been following the story very closely, because among those folks Giannoulias has a 39-28 lead. That may be a short lived saving grace for Kirk though since Democrats will make sure voters are very familiar with the story by the fall.
Click here for the full results. The PPP poll has Giannoulias just barely ahead of Kirk…
The candidates for Senate are Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, Republican Mark Kirk, and Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
31% Alexi Giannoulias
30% Mark Kirk
14% LeAlan Jones
24% Undecided
This poll represents progress for Giannoulias since PPP last looked at the race in early April. He now leads 31-30 where he previously trailed Kirk 37-33. The main thing that’s changed since then is voter perceptions of Kirk. His net favorability of +1 (24/23) has seen a decline of nine points to -8 (23/31). Giannoulias is just as unpopular as Kirk, sporting the exact same 23/31 favorability spread. But that’s not a new development for him- he was already at -7 (21/28) back in the spring. Nothing voters have learned about Giannoulias in the last three months has made them like him any less than they already did.
* The Green Party candidate is giving Kirk something to hope for…
The beneficiary of the voter disgust with both Giannoulias and Kirk is Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones. Despite being viewed favorably by only 2% of voters in the state he’s pulling 14% in the horse race. Posing a particular problem for Giannoulias is that Jones is getting a remarkable 26% of the black vote right now. Third party candidates often poll a lot better in the summer than they do by the fall so it will be interesting to see if these folks really stick with Jones or go back to the Democratic fold and that could end up being one of the defining stories of this race.
Racial breakdown…
Jones is actually slightly ahead of Giannoulias with independents…
Favorables…
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alexi Giannoulias?
23% Favorable
31% Unfavorable
45% Not SureDo you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Kirk?
23% Favorable
31% Unfavorable
46% Not SureDo you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of LeAlan Jones?
2% Favorable
13% Unfavorable
84% Not Sure
It’s hard to see this race as anything but a pure tossup at this juncture but in Illinois a race between a flawed Democrat and a flawed Republican is probably going to end up in the Democratic column, and Giannoulias’ 5 point gain relative to Kirk is in the 10 weeks reflects that.
* Methodology…
June 12-13, 2010 survey of 552 Illinois voters
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:09 am
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As a general proposition, flawed on flawed would normaly favor the Dem in IL, is ok, but it is flawed.
It ignores the current blago trial and the existance of a thrid party canidate. Ultimately to me flawed on flawed will title towards the GOP canidate when you toss in a 3rd party green canidate and te blago trial.
Conservatives fed up with govt are not going to vote for the green, so the green will tend to pull in the independents and disafected dems.
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:19 am
That’s it?
All this spinning for this?
Good grief. Imagine what the polls would look like if these people focused on our concerns.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:19 am
Cue the…
“Is this all they’ve got? If this is it, Kirk is going to win in a landslide!”
[Personal anecdote about people not paying attention right now]
[Personal anecdote about people - most likely die-hard republicans - saying it won’t impact their vote]
[Claiming veteran status and then attacking those critical of Kirk for not having served, ignorance of military culture and language, or supposed anti-military bias]
“All this does is keep reinforcing in people’s minds that Mark Kirk is a veteran”
Comment by George Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:21 am
You forgot -
“It is only June. This will be forgotten by August.”
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:23 am
VMan, you are completely missing the point. Kirk’s principal asset was the legitimacy of being a respected member of the Armed Forces. Kirk’s service placed him above “mere politicians” and gave him a great introductory angle with voters. He has now spoiled his own crucial advantage.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:25 am
He swift-boated himself….
Comment by George Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:26 am
well, there you go. you have to wonder how long kirk will drag this out or alter his campaign strategy accordingly. regardless, we’re going to see this all repeated in various campaign commercials (purchased, undoubtedly, by the dscc) in the fall. while i don’t think republican-leaning vets will abandon kirk, i’ll be interested to see how this effects kirk’s fund-raising…
Comment by bored now Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:28 am
Yeah, Rich kind of already said it, but the key here is that Kirk has undermined his own foundation. He was supposed to be the stand-up guy, the dedicated straight shooter who put country before self-interest. In other words, the one you could trust. The Godfather-style ads Kirk ran against Giannoulias now take on a freakish irony because Michael Corleone was a legitimate war veteran who used that status as a cover for his life of lies and crime. I think the constituency to watch isn’t those that switch, but veterans who throw up their hands and stay home. That effect will be about 99% against Kirk.
Comment by Thomas Westgard Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:46 am
If the independent candidate gets into this race, could the “winner” end up with less than 30% of the total?
Comment by Vole Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:50 am
Rich,
maybe a little balance. Alexi is still refusing to release his tax returns and still hasn’t filed his ethics statement that was due a month ago. Alexi is refusing for a reason. Plummer is probably embarresed about still using the EZ form Alexi is probably worried about jail.
Comment by Fed up Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:52 am
===maybe a little balance===
That was mentioned today on a previous post. Also, in the future please try to avoid stuff like predicting somebody is going to jail unless that somebody is as crooked as Blagojevich. It makes people disbelieve anything else you write. Just sayin..,
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:53 am
Kirk’s opportunity awaits among the 45% who are unsure if he lied. They can apparently be persuaded of anything.
Kirk has a lot going for him — bad economy, Dem control, Alexi — but he’s a nobody on his own without his phony baloney military record.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:53 am
I’m not missing the point, I just don’t believe that Kirk was nothing more than an “Officer of the Year”. That was just icing. The fact that the icing turned out to be inedible, doesn’t dismiss the fact that it is still an attractive cake.
You can throw all this military awards aside, and still have a centrist Congressman with a decade under his belt. You still have an able campaigner. You still have his party wanting him to win. That isn’t going to change.
You can only beat a dead horse so long. This sucker is stiff and smelly. The poll only confirms that voters are cynical this year.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:53 am
=Cue the…=
“Oh, George. You are sooooooo off the mark….
…Oh yeah, I forgot: Hater!!!”
(Caution: snark was fully intended.)
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:54 am
Alexi will wish he got the taxs and ethics statements out in the summer when no one is paying attention.
Comment by Fed up Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:54 am
Plummer uses the EZ form? Dude, he’s a rich kid who doesn’t want to show that his money comes from his family and that he probably didn’t pay taxes either, like Brady.
Didn’t Plummer loan his campaign hundreds of thousands of dollars? Who are you trying to kid with this EZ form nonsense?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 11:57 am
And 100% of those in that 10% believe aliens built the Pyramids.
Comment by just sayin' Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 12:08 pm
=doesn’t dismiss the fact that it is still an attractive cake=
Note to self:
Good one from a blog. Remember to use in discussions with the press sometime during the Campaign. Consider tying it in with a “human rights” cause.
To show the extent of how witty and worldly we are, be sure to say it in French:
“Qu’ils mangent de la brioche”
And then translate it–using several paragraphs, of course–to make sure the peasants understand.
Be sure to also include something that will come back to haunt Kirk, so that the French phrase–through ongoing repetition in upcoming commercials–will implant itself in the Voter’s minds…
…all to help Kirk win, of course!
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 12:09 pm
Between the Gov and the US Senate it sure looks like the third party candidates may well play the role of spoiler–can we get the press to start looking at these characters–or do they just get a free pass even though they may be carrying more baggage then the two mainstream candidates.
Comment by 3rd Party Poopers Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 12:12 pm
–Kirk’s principal asset was the legitimacy of being a respected member of the Armed Forces–
Agree this was/is an asset but I don’t believe it was ever the *principal* asset for Kirk. For those voters to whom a candidate’s military service is an added plus, many if not most will still lean to Kirk over Alexi. For those to whom military service is not a factor, the relentless partisan emphasis on the character flaws of both will cancel each other out and the final voting decisions will be based mainly on the perceived competence and policy positions of the candidates. The sheer number of registered Democrats in the state will make this a competitive race up till the end and Kirk’s mistakes have given new life to Alexi. I still think Kirk will win in a squeaker. And those who think Republicans will stay home from the polls, or will vote for Alexi to “punish” Kirk for being too moderate–well that is a pipe dream.
One of the things I love most about Rich’s blog is that it continually reinforces (professional PR messaging aside) how little Dems and Repubs deep down seem to understand the mind-set and DNA of those on the other side.
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 12:14 pm
Time for a song yet, V-Man?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 12:15 pm
V-Man, you’ve had too much punch with your cake.
Sure the GOP’s brass is all about Kirk, always were, always will be. But many, many GOP voters are disgusted with the guy.
Comment by just sayin' Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 12:21 pm
Pollster says:
> Third party candidates often poll a lot better
> in the summer than they do by the fall
Wow, that’s the first time I’ve ever heard that one. Usually, pollsters don’t even ask about third party candidates.
Comment by PFK Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 12:25 pm
“Third party candidates often poll a lot better in the summer than they do by the fall so it will be interesting to see if these folks really stick with Jones or go back to the Democratic fold and that could end up being one of the defining stories of this race.”
It’s simply not true that Green party candidates poll better in the summer than the fall. They tend to rise as interest in the race rises, and more undecideds break, just like the Dems and Pubs. However, I will grant that Whitney was polling 14-15% in October and ended up with 10.5%. But Whitney wasn’t even on the ballot until the very end of August, and was polling at 3-4% as “Other Candidate” this same time in 2006. He’s now polling just under 10% while still being listed as “Other Candidate” and now Jones is at 15% in June. Another 10% bump for Jones over the next two months, and this easily becomes a three-way race.
Comment by Sacks Romana Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 12:28 pm
Vman -
Since when is being a centrist Republican an asset in Illinois? Sounds like a man without a base in what is going to be a base-driven election.
While its true that at one point Kirk could have pointed to suburban Republicans/Independents as his base, his managed to screw that up by flip-flopping on the environment, flip-flopping on choice, embracing Sarah Palin, and voting for the Wall Street bailout.
And his ten years in Congress? Please Lord, let him run on that resume.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 12:36 pm
=Kirk’s mistakes have given new life to Alexi.=
Oh, so this was all done to make sure that Alexi didn’t drop out after beating the Broadway Bank horse for too long?
Damage control as it’s finest.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 12:45 pm
Responsa says, “Agree this was/is an asset but I don’t believe it was ever the *principal* asset for Kirk.”
If his military “record” wasn’t a principal asset for Kirk what was?
He’s clearly been running on his military experience along with self-proclaimed foreign policy experience (also based in part on his military background). He popped his own balloon re the military history and the Sun-Times has been showing his foreign policy know-how has also been based on exaggerations and fibs.
The third pillar in his strategy was his self-proclaimed moderate stands — which he threw out the window when he flip-flopped to get teabaggers to stop booing him at GOP events.
What’s he got left?
Comment by Rob_N Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 12:55 pm
Little clean-up…
1) Plummer loaned his campaign $350K, he ain’t usin’ no EZ form ….
2)If you get 10 random people in a room, you tell a story, you leave, and then someone polls those 10 about your truthfullness, and only 1 … 1 out of 10 … thinks you are being truthfull, you got problems.
Now, Kirk wasn’t in a room to tell his story, and this 1 out of 10 is going on what THEY think they know, and this poll says most are not following this closely … well,…. if you can’t get people to believe you, even when all they really need to do is be human and maybe give the benefit of a doubt….and people admit they are not following this closely …
It’s called image. Right now, snapshot of this poll … Kirk’s image is that of a liar, whose word is not even better than mud.
Ten percent.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 1:56 pm
Since when is being a centrist Republican an asset in Illinois? Sounds like a man without a base in what is going to be a base-driven election. - YDD
Kudos to you! Good point.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 2:23 pm
What’s he got left?
He’s not a mob banker? LOL
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 2:38 pm
One of the things I love most about Rich’s blog is that it continually reinforces (professional PR messaging aside) how little Dems and Repubs deep down seem to understand the mind-set and DNA of those on the other side.
Or independents, whose votes they need more than those of their automatic “base”.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 2:41 pm
Six answers my rhetorical question with another rhetorical question, “What’s he got left? He’s not a mob banker?”
But Kirk is the only Senate candidate to take money from Tony Rezko…
Oh, and don’t forget that Kirk voted for President Bush’s Bank Bailout (money which Broadway wasn’t eligible for since it was a community bank).
Comment by Rob_N Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 3:24 pm
Why would Jones polling at 26% with African-Americans be surprising? He’s been an activist in Chicago since he was a teenager.
Given the alternatives are a Rogers Park banker Dem and a North Shore Republican, I expect he’ll poll higher than that come November. If he can get an organization built that’s strong enough to take advantage of the weaknesses of the other two.
Comment by haverford Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 3:32 pm
===Why would Jones polling at 26% with African-Americans be surprising? ===
The guy has a 2 percent favorable rating. He’s hardly a known quantity.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 4:16 pm
Also, if you look at the xtabs, you’ll see his disapproval rating among African-Americans is higher than it is whites.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 4:19 pm
Rich, after 689 anti-Kirk postings, you’ve finally convinced me. I’m voting for the $360 MM dollar man.
Comment by Park Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 8:30 pm
Park,
Are you talking about 689 “comments” from folks visiting the blog or 689 “posts” written by Miller?
Because, honestly, simply reporting facts like polling numbers, actual military records, false statements quoted from a candidate, etc. is not “anti-” anything.
Facts is facts, and Miller can’t help it if the facts are not in Kirk’s favor.
Heck, most of these facts came from Kirk’s own lips. Again, Miller can’t help that Kirk has a penchant for lying.
Comment by Rob_N Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 9:15 pm
I’m interested in the number. Random? Credit score? 689th CCW, maybe?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 9:53 pm