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*** UPDATE *** Abdon Pallasch at the Sun-Times was able to get the quarterly figure from both campaigns…
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady raised more money than Gov. Quinn in campaign contributions for the second quarter of the year, bringing in $3 million to Quinn’s $2.8 million. […]
Brady had to wait until March 5 when Kirk Dillard conceded the razor-close Republican primary to start fundraising in earnest. So most of Brady’s money came in the last three months, spokeswoman Patty Schuh said.
[ *** End of Update *** ]
* Subscribers already know about this. From a press release…
The Quinn/Simon campaign announced today that it raised nearly $5.1 million in combined campaign contributions in the first half of 2010.
The campaign had nearly $2.3 million cash on hand on June 30th. Semi-annual financial disclosure reports for the two campaign committees – Taxpayers for Quinn and Quinn/Simon for Illinois – will be filed July 20, 2010.
“The people of Illinois realize how much is at stake in this election,” said Ben Nuckels, Campaign Manager. “Our contributions show voters know that Pat Quinn and Sheila Simon are the right leaders to keep growing our economy and bring jobs to the state.”
The total released by the campaign does not include contributions made after June 30, such as the IEA’s public commitment of a significant contribution during their endorsement last week.
That $2.3 million is the same as Bill Brady’s cash on hand.
Thoughts?
* My weekly syndicated column is about the latest Rasmussen polling…
So, why did Gov. Pat Quinn close the gap with Republican state Sen. Bill Brady in Rasmussen Reports’ latest poll? There’s a one-word answer: Women.
Rasmussen’s newest poll had Brady ahead of Quinn 43-40. That’s a pretty hefty swing from the firm’s June poll, which had Brady with an 11-point lead, 47-36.
Many political observers were stunned back in March when Rasmussen’s first poll had Brady trouncing Quinn with likely female voters 50-33. Quinn had a horrible time with women voters during the Democratic primary against Dan Hynes, particularly after the news hit that his administration had released a bunch of violent criminals from prison early.
Women voters were still upset with him after the primary, it appeared. Subsequent polling backed up Rasmussen’s numbers. An April survey by Public Policy Polling had Brady leading Quinn among women by 10 points.
Quinn ranks high on so-called “women’s issues,” but Brady is 100 percent pro-life, even in cases of rape and incest. Brady also has taken dozens of votes in the Illinois Senate that quite a few women, particularly in the all-important suburbs, won’t love. Some folks have been saying that Brady’s lead in all the polls was artificial because women just didn’t know what Brady stood for.
They were right. By June 7, Rasmussen had Brady leading Quinn among women by just three points, 42-39. Public Policy Polling’s June survey had the two men tied among women.
And the latest Rasmussen poll, conducted July 7, has Quinn completely turning the tables on Brady and now leading among women by 11 points, 47-36. Word appears to be gradually getting out about Brady’s very conservative stances on abortion, guns, etc.
That movement by women was totally behind Rasmussen’s latest 43-40 overall results, which is the narrowest margin that any poll has recorded in this race to date. Quinn launched a TV ad in the Chicago area last week that whacked Brady good on abortion and his vote against requiring insurance companies to cover mammograms with no out-of-pocket expenses. That ad probably will put Quinn’s numbers to where they should’ve been all along.
Meanwhile, Quinn’s signature this month on legislation creating a temporary “back-to-school” sales tax holiday dovetailed nicely with that same new poll by Rasmussen, which shows Illinoisans by a two-to-one margin believe tax cuts are a better way to create jobs than increased government spending
Every article and editorial about the upcoming sales tax holiday included the official budgetary cost estimates of $40 million to $60 million, which isn’t much, but is a definite issue during the state’s worst fiscal crisis since the Great Depression.
Yet 55 percent of Illinoisans, including 60 percent of independents and 47 percent of “moderates” believe that cutting taxes is a better way to create new jobs than increasing government spending. That’s less than Rasmussen’s national result of 69 percent favoring tax cuts, but to be expected considering Illinois’ more liberal bent. With the budget in sorry shape, tax cuts are few and far between, and with Brady advocating broad tax cuts, Quinn had to do his best to get the word out.
This sales tax holiday probably will get more publicity than any other pre-election tax cut Quinn could’ve devised. Retailers usually advertise quite heavily during back-to-school season, and they’ll surely include the automatic 5 percent discount from the sales tax holiday in their nonstop pitches to consumers. Broadcast and print news will do plenty of stories during the Aug. 6-15 tax holiday.
Not to mention all the mothers who will be thankful for a break on their purchases. Quinn knew what he was doing there, or at least stumbled into it.
But before the Quinn campaign can celebrate any victories, there is a very ominous warning sign in the latest Rasmussen poll for their guy.
Back in March, Quinn and Brady split the 65-and-older crowd with 45 points each in Rasmussen’s poll. By June, Brady had a three-point lead with seniors. Rasmussen’s July poll has Brady widening his lead to 11 points.
Seniors vote in high percentages, so Quinn needs to scare yet another demographic into retreating from Brady. Maybe a tax holiday on electric scooters?
* Related…
* Bad choices on both sides of the aisle
* Quinn won’t say if he raised more, less than Brady
* Dem leaders in search of a movement
* Bernard Schoenburg: A refreshing change of political pace
* Ballot controversy raises profile of candidate Cedra Crenshaw with tea party
* Burris bitter on criticism, but happy in Senate
* Green Party candidates face another uphill battle in Illinois
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:03 am
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If the money stays relatively equal, whoever steps in it least will win.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:18 am
- wordslinger - Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:18 am:
“If the money stays relatively equal, whoever steps in it least will win.”
Since I think both actually live in it, stepping is an issue…
Comment by Cincinnatus Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:21 am
Brady did something a little odd and very weak in my opinion in response to the DGA ad, he rebutted with a “Quinn is distoring my record…”
Brady stop whining and fight back! Talk about how MGT push lead to the death of at least one woman and enabled other extremely violent offenders to go free i.e., the guy who seriously injured a woman in the south loop when she ignored his demand for a cigarette. I am still curious about the so-called net savings in the MGT Push fiasco. It probably eneded up costing Illinois more than it saved because so many offenders had to be re-incacerated. Brady, if you need to distort his record as governor on MGT push and other things right back! that’s politics—no harm no foul, just make sure you land serious punches.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:22 am
“The people of Illinois realize how much is at stake in this election,” “Our [fill blank here] show voters know that Pat Quinn and Sheila Simon are the right leaders to keep growing our economy and bring jobs to the state.”
Fill in the blank campaign trash.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:23 am
Will be most interesting to see the filings for the DGA and RGA. Seems like Bill has had to spend little because the RGA has been spending it for him. And, at least on the surface, looks like his spending has done little to aid him in the polls.
If Quinn has spent as little as it appears to this point, and closed the gap … well, then it could be an interested 3 months.
The releases/reactions each had regarding their fundraising is interesting. Brady seemed giddy to let everyone know, before releasing any details, that he had raised his 3.6m. Quinn seemed to take the “I’ve been here before” approach and took it all in stride. One seems to be giving off the “I’m having fun playing candidate” appearance, while one seems to be trying to give off the “I’m busy governing” appearance.
Comment by ShadyBillBrady Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:30 am
the past few months I have been conflicted about what to do in Governor race. I , as I know many others have, had about decided to sit this one out. I was prepared to stay home, maybe vote, maybe not and not do much of anything else.
No longer conflicted I will support and work for Governor Pat Quinn. Let me explain.
This man has been under siege since he began Governor. When Quinn became Governor the state finances were in a total mess, no one had any confidence in a government in shambles and previous Governor impeached.
We continue in a serious recession, unemployment is way too high, losing revenue, no tax increase and we have legislative leaders focused on their self interests. On the positive side, competent state administrators are in place, the budget has been cut and cut and cut again but still money had to be borrowed. Quinn has been able to attract some new companies that will help some.
In short rather than being criticized and pillared Quinn should be recognized as doing a very good job under most difficult circumstances not of his making. I have heard it said, “It is easier to throw hand grenades than it is to catch them.” Many folks, especially some media, are tossing a lot of “grenades” at this Governor. I guess I bought into some of this negativity.
I disagree with the Governor on several issues….the selection of Lt. Gov candidate, not always communicating effectively; changing positions and most importantly, seemingly, not being the independent Pat Quinn so many of us respect and admire.
Then I compared the Governor with top challenger Bill Brady. This did it for me
On every single social issue Brady has a very, very extreme, radical position. Every social issue…think about this for a minute and it should give anyone pause. Brady is radical on medical care, women issues, immigration, minimum wage, criminal justice and even sponsored legislation to kill a bunch of dogs.
When one looks at what I guess is Brady’s core message, no taxes and cut budget, it is attractive. None of us want to pay more taxes and we know there is still waste and inefficiency in government. Brady is a nice man, smooth talker but his actions speak much louder than his words.
On the budget, Brady simply says he would cut across the board and not raise taxes. This is simplistic and sounds like more of the same old political smooth talk.
. Don’t opt out of this election. It is too important. Support Pat Quinn.
Go to www/quinnforgovernor.com to get involved and more information.
Comment by bill ryan Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:32 am
Wow. Who are you two, and what have you done with Bill Brady and Pat Quinn?
Comment by FillB Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:36 am
I think Quinn raised his money before the primary and before the early release scandal. Quinn hasn’t even had a campaign manager all that long and still doesn’t have an organization if he has $3.4 million it will be gone by tomorrow afternoon. Brady is ready to roll.
I guess if you want to hope the Rasmussen poll before the big raises for cronies scandal would be a place to do it, Polls have a short life span a Poll showing Brady is leading women by three percent when you only need one thin vote to win still does.
Of course Quinn twisted Brady’s record in the DGA Ad he just used different bill numbers that’s all oldest dodge in the book.
Comment by wannasee Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:49 am
I did notice this weekend a push online by Dem. Gov. Association-IL to get womens attention. Being hot, bored and lazy I visited several woman type sites/message boards (on families, daytime programing)…ads and links to Brady not for women in 3 out of 4 places I popped into.
What the ads said did not surprise me nor news to me, but the appearances of the ads themselves did. I usually see ads about pampers and kraft foods when I pop into these ‘kill time’ sites.
Comment by Cindy Lou Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:51 am
===I think Quinn raised his money before the primary and before the early release scandal.===
The early release scandal broke in December, which wouldn’t totally be reflected in this report. The primary was in February. For Quinn’s totals before that primary, you should subscribe. Or look it up yourself.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:52 am
What Quinn has done in Office since arriving there is more frightening that what Quinn is saying Brady would do if he arrived there.
It is the job of an incumbent to paint their opponents as the worse people on Earth, in order to remain in office. The less good an incumbent is, the harder they try.
Quinn is working overtime to make Brady into a believable villian. It is the only way Quinn could win, because he has little positive to run on.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:53 am
There are a lot of people who won’t vote for Brady because of his extreme right views. Those same people might put Quinn into the winner’s column, not because they support him but because they can’t possibly support his opponent.
Comment by Aldyth Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:55 am
yeah but shady bill brady, why do I have a feeling that Quinn’s numbers are fudged? of course they could very well be accurate, but he does have a dishonest tendency and apparently no shame in it. i can’t forget the out and out lies that he told about having Alexi G signature on a borrowing plan, when he in fact did not. the lies he told about MGT Push, what he knew and when and how his Director of DOC was all too blame, but he refused to fire him. I could go on, but hopefully you see my point. When he speaks, especially about something he wants the public to believe/support, I tend to think he’s probably lying moreso than not.
Bill Ryan, I’d love offer a line-by-line rebuttal of what you wrote. I won’t, and it’s not because I can’t. Two words shoud suffice here: Chris Christie.
Oh, and the the places I could go with a Chris Christie agrument put up against yours. Christie is working his agenda through a “hostile” oppostion party led state legislature. Quinn had nothing but goodwill from both sides of the IL GA aisle, the media etc. and still managed to blow it? He couldn’t even get his own party to go along with his budget, not once but twice he failed to do so. His leadership style is in the situation that Illinois is in because he doesn’t really have a leadership style/capbalities right for this crisis situation. He may be a nice person and well-meaning, but right now that’s just not good enough–he’s not getting the job that he begged for, mind you, done.
Fool me once shame on you…fool me twice, shame on me?
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 11:58 am
“Two words shoud suffice here: Chris Christie.”
So the better solution would be to privatize things like tollways and state agencies and borrow large amounts of cash to fill in the budget?
Comment by FillB Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 12:07 pm
- why do I have a feeling that Quinn’s numbers are fudged? -
Because you want to feel that way. Numbers, rules, these things don’t matter. Only Will County Woman’s paranoia and wild imagination will save Illinois from the mighty Quinn.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 12:12 pm
WCW:
Quinn’s numbers fudged? In his actual filing? Please.
Dishonest tendency? Yep, your boy Brady is the picture of integrity and honesty. Just ask anyone (as long as they don’t know him) and they might tell you the same.
Comment by ShadyBillBrady Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 12:12 pm
FillB, don’t forget skipping a pension payment.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 12:16 pm
I won’t quibble with you until tomorrow and the real numbers go out. I guess you could have a copy Brady did raise $3.6 million 10% more then Quinn. There have been other stories about Early Release including people attacked and killed by people who have been released early since the story originally broke which have been more of an issue for Quinn.
The Dome has a poll up on the School supply tax cut Holiday its loosing 16% to 82% voters know there are good tax cuts and bad; when you don’t have any money you quit spending of course not Quinn.
Comment by wannasee Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 12:22 pm
===The Dome has a poll up ===
That’s not a poll. It’s an online reader survey of (in large part) state government workers. What do you expect?
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 12:24 pm
Mixed up how much he raised.
Comment by wannasee Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 12:24 pm
FillB, the point that you and the peanut gallery want to gloss over is that Chris Christie is leading his state. there’s no question that he’s in charge. is everything he is doing good and great and long-term consequence free? No. and I didn’t suggest that, did I?
Chris Christie is defying the odds and is in firm control of his office, he’s not making excuses and lying and cowering in the corner at every turn. Christie was not suppose to be effective, but he has shown that he is. Quinn was supposed to be effective, but he has shown that he isn’t.
what gives? you tell me.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 12:26 pm
WCW:
You also seem to want to ignore the fact tha the structure of NJ govt. is different than IL’s. Christie is “in charge” partly because that’s the way the office of Gov. in NJ is designed.
Comment by ShadyBillBrady Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 12:36 pm
the one thing we can be sure of: bill brady is no chris christie. not even close…
Comment by bored now Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 12:37 pm
shady, you and others, seem to want to ignore the fact that quinn has made some major and costly mistakes/missteps, that were entirely of his own doing, and that his leadership is just not up to par. he is not governor material.
he reminds me of governor eugene gatling. remember Benson? that was tv, but we’ve got quinn a governor-gatling type in real life and it’s not good!
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 12:44 pm
WCW: How about you respond to legitimate questions and comments and stop trying to change the subject?
Comment by ShadyBillBrady Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 12:49 pm
WCW - You seem to ignore the fact that you denounced Quinn for not supporting an progressive income tax like Hynes was in the primary. Nevermind that it wasn’t a reality, now you’re supporting a candidate who represents the exact opposite ideology. So accuse everyone else of ignoring whatever you want, maybe you should try ignoring your obvious hatred of Pat Quinn and make an intelligent comment once in a while.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 1:28 pm
why do I have a feeling that Quinn’s numbers are fudged
You have to be kidding me. Comments like this make you lose any credibility you once had.
You really think his official filings are fudged? You are really accusing Quinn of lying on his official campaign disclosure documents?
Unbelievable.
. Quinn had nothing but goodwill from both sides of the IL GA aisle
And then you say this. Did you even follow IL politics/legislative sessions over the last two years? There has hardly been “but goodwill from both sides of the IL GA aisle.”
Wow.
Comment by dave Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 1:36 pm
For the record my position on the tax issue has never changed, and I am not a huge fan of the progressive tax scheme. By the same token I didn’t don’t find Quinn poorly executed flat tax proposal appealing. I did think Hynes’ position was predicated on serious cuts more than Quinn’s.
My position was and always will be that there should be no talk of a tax increase until serious and REAL budget cuts are made. Quinn couldn’t possibly have made ay serious cuts while giving his staff generous pay raises! left hand doesn’t know what the right had was doing? (btw…there’s one of your answers right there, shady) I for one never thought that Quinn made any serious cuts last year or this year.
Indeed, my position was/is consistent with Hynes, Lisa Madigan, as well as much of the IL GOP last year, and now. Though I’m not sure how Hynes and L. Madigan still support their previous stances.
While Bill Brady says otherwise,for now, i suspect that should he become governor taxes will be raised, to what extent and in what manner e.g., flat or progressive or temporarily? I don’t know. but i also suspect that he would do so only after making some serious cuts (aka real shared sacrifice).
as I stated last week, in this instance,and based on my suspicion, I trust Brady with increased tax revenue way more than I ever could quinn. i trust Brady to do right by the money and the people of illinois, and not squander it on new unnecessary programs (expanded government) and patronage. I have every confidence in the world that because brady loathes the idea of taxes, he is the truer fiscal steward in every way.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 1:57 pm
So, WCW, you think Quinn may have fudged his numbers and that’s a bad thing. You also now say Brady will increase taxes no matter what he says and that’s a good thing.
Take a breath, please.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 2:06 pm
===I have every confidence in the world that because brady loathes the idea of taxes, he is the truer fiscal steward in every way.===
Wait a minute, you think just because he wants less of your money that he is automatically better at handling it?
Comment by Obamarama Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 4:05 pm
Brady should be almost unelectable with his various stands on issues but he keeps getting help from Pat Quinn. For example, everytime Quinn says tax increase he should be saying (at the very least) temporary. And giving his staff pay raises wasn’t thought out well-to say the least.
When the voters start to focus in October, there will be huge constituencies arrayed against Brady. I guess will find out what people hold more dear-political issues or their money.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 4:24 pm
Obamarama yeah and other reasons also and so will business will increase jobs and revenue to the state.
Comment by Thatsright Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 7:14 pm
rich, i stated/suggested nothing of the kind. i’m merely envisioning a likely scenario: brady, once in the governor’s office is faced with the cold hard reality that a tax increase of somekind is necessary, and that try as he might there’s no escaping it.
i trust that he would do everything in his power to avoid any kind of a tax increase, which is why should it come to that i feel more comfortable with him than I would/do quinn. quinn’s first and last lines of defense has been tax increase, tax increase, tax increase and he hasn’t given taxpayers anything in return.
for the record i don’t think brady is being deceitful or misleading when he says he wouldn’t raise taxes. i’m giving him the benefit of the doubt here because he has not shown a penchant for lying the way others have. until/unless he gives me a reason to doubt the things he says, i am not going to question him on the things he says the way i do quinn.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 7:49 pm
I just see PQ doing something incredibly stupid on a women’s issue between now and the election. The guy just doesn’t seem to be able to help himself. Don’t know what it might be, but it seems to be Quinn’s Karma. In the meantime, the Dem’s can squander all the resources they care to trying to change his image.
Comment by Park Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 8:16 pm
=Wait a minute, you think just because he wants less of your money that he is automatically better at handling it?=
um yeah! didn’t i pretty state/suggest that he would be more disciplined in how he used increased tax revenue than would quinn? quinn has shown a lack of discipline in nearly everything he has done since becoming governor. i don’t trust him or the hands-out machine dems and special interests (aka his friends) that he is in bed with. Quinn had the unmitigated gall to give out pay raises during the worst fiscal crisis illinois has ever seen!
Then I go back to I go back to october/november and senator brady interviwed by fox 32’s jack connanty talking how frugual of governor he would be. something to the effect of him saying that all he needed in his office would be a desk and chair to do his job/work.
the juxtapostion between him and his modest requests/needs and “living high on the hog at taxpayer expense” quinn is amazing.
brady was skyping on primary election night.
i do believe that brady would have the state’s best fiscal interest at heart should he have to raise taxes. above all he is not beholden to the allllllllllllll the special interests that quinn would be and is beholden to.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 19, 10 @ 8:26 pm
Ok, WCW. Let’s settle this once and for all. I am not a Quinn guy. I never have been. Once Blago got his, my response was, oh shi….. shoot. Now PQ is at the reigns!
Once primary season came along, I begged for a Hynes victory.
That didn’t happen.
So now, we are faced with a choice between PQ and Bill Brady–the lesser of two polar incompetencies if you will.
PQ wants a tax increase and BB doesn’t. Swell. But there is no freaking way that we can cut ourselves out of a deficit that represents nearly half of our discretionary budget. We simply cannot.
BB is advocating a tax policy that is completely impractical. No matter whose fault the state’s current fiscal condition is, it doesn’t change the reality.
I get that you don’t like PQ–you have made that abundantly clear over the past few months (which have seemed like years)– yet there is a fine line between idealism and reality.
The state of Illinois needs a tax increase. It is an economic fact. I don’t like it anymore than you do. But mathematics isn’t a matter of opinion.
Comment by Obamarama Tuesday, Jul 20, 10 @ 3:06 am
i don’t think brady is being deceitful or misleading when he says he wouldn’t raise taxes.
Even Right Wing Brady knows that a tax increase is necessary. Everyone who has a clue knows it.
i’m giving him the benefit of the doubt here because he has not shown a penchant for lying the way others have.
Ha… you haven’t followed much of Brady, have you? Everything he says about the State budget/economy is basically lie, and he knows it.
“living high on the hog at taxpayer expense” quinn
Seriously? Do you know anything about Quinn at all? And this is pretty ironic, being that Brady is the one who has lived high, and not paid taxes, at the taxpayers’ expense.
brady was skyping on primary election night.
That had nothing at all to do with frugality. It had to do with the press not expecting him to win, so didn’t send anyone to his victory party. But hey, don’t let facts get in the way.
above all he is not beholden to the allllllllllllll the special interests that quinn would be and is beholden to.
Finally… you have said something true. Brady is not beholden to the “special interests” that Quinn is. He is just beholden to different special interests.
Comment by dave Tuesday, Jul 20, 10 @ 7:51 am
- all he needed in his office would be a desk and chair to do his job/work. -
This is probably about right. Since Brady doesn’t have any ideas or plans, he probably won’t need any way of writing anything down.
- i’m merely envisioning a likely scenario: brady, once in the governor’s office is faced with the cold hard reality that a tax increase of somekind is necessary, and that try as he might there’s no escaping it. -
So you’re cool with the fact that he’s incapable of realizing this before being governor? Or are you cool with the fact that he’s lying about it?
Comment by Small Town Liberal Tuesday, Jul 20, 10 @ 8:43 am