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* The Democratic Governors Association is spending about $500,000 a week on TV ads these days for Gov. Pat Quinn, which is way more than the $200,000 a week being spent by Bill Brady’s campaign. But the Quinn ads may not be working yet, according to Rasmussen’s latest poll, which has Brady increasing his margin to seven points, up from three earlier this month. Numbers in brackets are results from the pollster on July 7, June 7, April 28, April 5 and March 8…
Brady: 44% [43%, 47% 45%, 45%, 47%]
Quinn: 37% [40%, 36% 38%, 38%, 37%]
Some Other Candidate 11% [9%, 8% 5%, 7%, 6%]
Not sure 9% [8%, 10% 11%, 10%, 9%]
* From the pollster…
Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Illinois voters approve of the job [Quinn] is doing as governor, down seven points from earlier this month, while 61% disapprove.
The Republican holds a 13-point lead among men, but women are evenly divided between the candidates. Brady picks up support from 88% of Republicans, while Quinn is supported by only 61% of those in his party. Brady has a modest lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
They’re tied with women again? Not good for Quinn, especially since the DGA is so heavily targeting women in their TV ads.
Back to the pollster…
Quinn is viewed Very Favorably by seven percent (7%) and Very Unfavorably by 32%.
Brady’s ratings are 15% Very Favorable, 15% Very Unfavorable.
At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
* Other results, with July 6th results in brackets for Quinn…
* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?
37% Strongly approve
18% Somewhat approve
7% Somewhat disapprove
36% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure* How would you rate the job Pat Quinn has been doing as Governor… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?
7% Strongly approve [10%]
30% Somewhat approve [34%]
27% Somewhat disapprove [23%]
34% Strongly disapprove [31%]
2% Not sure [3%]
Approval is down, disapproval is up. Not good.
* Methodology…
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on July 26, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
* Rasmussen’s job approval chart for Quinn, which hasn’t been updated to include the latest poll…
* TPM’s poll tracker…
* Thoughts?
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 9:53 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
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YIKES!
That pay increase issue really smarted! Brady has put that ad all over the air and it is too dang catchy! Christmas music in July? I hate being grabbed by a commercial, but hearing Jingle Bells suddenly in July gets my attention each time. Stop it!
Now this Vaught quote?
This poll, (yeah, we all know about Rasmussen), and this new 66% tax increase if Quinn is elected quote, and this race is going off the rails for Quinn.
Or, should I say that Pat’s campaign is “going to the dogs”?
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:02 am
Pat Quinn had a honeymoon! Remember?
We all gave him one, just out of sheer Blagojevich exhaustion.
You blew it Pat!
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:04 am
It’s way early. Only the nerds like us are paying attention. Wait till mid-September.
Comment by Ray del Camino Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:05 am
there’s no way that people who are voting for brady are also voting for alexi. I don’t see it.
Comment by shore Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:05 am
They forgot to poll dogs. Since humans are rejecting his wacky ideas the Quinn campaign has really concentrated on pets. If the canine vote doesn’t get counted, he doesn’t have a chance.
Comment by FirstAmmendment Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:07 am
Shore, you keep saying that but it’s not supported by the facts.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:08 am
===there’s no way that people who are voting for brady are also voting for alexi. I don’t see it===
And vice versa. MoE could account for the gap though.
Comment by Obamarama Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:10 am
This is a real problem for Quinn. He does not have to be defined by Brady — he is a 40 year dem pol. Voters already have an opinion of Quinn and paid media is not going to make them like him more or less.
Comment by Toast Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:15 am
quinn is still a little red in the middle.. he’ll be done soon. He took that “pay to play” accusation well….. “brady bunch” ha ha
Comment by Still Gettin Twisted Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:16 am
I’ve got some advice for the Democratic Governor’s Association.
More lens flare.
Brady’s recent ad starring his daughter has more lens flare than a Smashing Pumpkins music video; must be working.
Seriously though, I have no idea how to account for this. The campaign is outspending Brady 2 to 1 with ads specifically targeted at women and yet they seem to moving backwards amongst that demographic, in addition to only being supported by 61% of his own party.
Those numbers are really bad, however, it’s still very early. If this trend holds up until October then it’s time for Quinn to hit the panic button.
Comment by Jimmy87 Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:18 am
Maybe it’s time for Quinn to start campaigning now?? There is no reason why Quinn should be tied with Brady among women. Brady’s record is so anti-woman, it is ridiculous.
Comment by Really?? Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:20 am
The question is if you are the DGA are you starting to wonder if this is worth a 500K a week investment?
I would suspect the school stuff is turning the suburban moms off of Quinn….
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:23 am
“Seriously though, I have no idea how to account for this.” Really? I do. 20% staff salary increase without passing a balanced budget and a near total failure to rid state government of Blago hacks. It really isn’t all that hard to figure out why the average voter isn’t jumping on the Quinn bandwagon despite all the money the Dems are throwing at this campaign.
Comment by give me liberty Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:23 am
Alternate advice for the Democratic Governor’s Association.
Spend your money in another state where it can do some good. Given his amazingly high unfavorables Quinn is unrecoverable.
Comment by Franklin Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:24 am
Shore:
I must be the only one planning to vote for Kirk and Quinn. Guess I’m an odd ball.
Comment by Niles Township Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:25 am
Gov. Chris Christie is getting national attention for his candor on talking about “greed in government”. That message is catching on.
Which of the two candidates (Brady or Quinn) is closer to being Illinois’ Chris Christie?
Every ad that Quinn runs on social issues makes him look like he’s living in a different reality. People aren’t talking about social issues any more. They only care about fiscal ones.
Comment by Downstater Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:34 am
Not really a surprise to me. Brady had a very bad June and the numbers reflected that. They seem to now be returning to the norm — a 7-10 point spread for Brady.
If Brady can sustain that for another month, the DGA may have to start looking at where their money will do the most good and it may not be Illinois.
Vaught has framed the race (although in fairness he didn’t say anything that Cullerton and Madigan haven’t already admitted, he was just a little more blunt). Vaught’s comments may actually have a bigger impact on individual House and Senate races, where Democrats are trying to avoid the tax issue. He’s pretty much admitting they have a deal to get past the election and then vote for a massive tax hike.
Quinn’s strategy was to make Brady unelectable before the voters turned their attention to taxes and spending. Time is running out for that strategy to work.
Brady needs to remain viable past Labor Day. At that point the average voters will start to focus and they’ll likely be looking at the basic bottom line issues of competence and taxes.
All in all, I’d rather be in Brady’s shoes than Quinn’s.
Comment by Anon Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:37 am
Rich,
Any non-partisan polling firms doing polls on the race? You may as well cite numbers directly from the RNC if you use Rasmussen.
Comment by Anon Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:38 am
I agree with Downstater, the DGA messaging seems off. I know they are trying to address Quinns “woman problem” but right now I think women are more worried about their families finances than they are social issues.
Comment by raising kane Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:39 am
I know it’s Rasmussen, so I’ll wait for everyone to pile on them, but check out Obama’s numbers. Not too good for his own state. The strongly approve and disapprove tabs are pretty much dead even. That cannot bode well for Quinn or Alexi.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:39 am
Downstater, that was a great post. I think the RGA and their candidates would be wise to use the Christie template this fall.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:40 am
I can see some logic in shore’s assertion that people shouldn’t be voting for alexi and brady, since Brady is far to the right of Kirk. But not everyone follows just a simple left-right logic when choosing candidates, and the average voter doesn’t necessarily know where to put people on the left-right spectrum right now. Plus Kirk is being branded a serial liar and has had some scandals, while Brady has been scandal-free relative to Kirk. Plus Quinn is the only incumbent, and there are certainly some anti-incumbency voters.
Comment by Robert Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:42 am
There is enough slack in the undecideds and other candidate categories to explain pretty much all of that away. Shore’s constant refrain, notwithstanding.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:43 am
Only 61% of Dems support Quinn. The question is do they come home to Quinn or do they stay home on Election Day?
Comment by Cosmic Charlie Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:44 am
Brady and Plummer would be wise to stay on the milk cartons for as long as possible.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:46 am
- Ray del Camino - Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:05 am:
“It’s way early. Only the nerds like us are paying attention. Wait till mid-September.”
Agreed. Alexi supporters should keep this in mind, too.
I didn’t think so a few weeks ago, but I am getting a feeling that the Governor race may pull one of the Senate candidates over the top. True for both Brady and Quinn.
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:51 am
Yes it is early, but does the difference now hurt the chances of Quinn getting outside help later?
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:53 am
First Ammendment
My dog tells me she finds the pet pandering off putting and would rather see issues important to pets addressed. Namely, squirrels in the yard, who gets the couch, and how a dead toad smells.
Comment by Way Way Down Here Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:56 am
- OneMan - Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:53 am:
“Yes it is early, but does the difference now hurt the chances of Quinn getting outside help later?”
Astute comment, OneMan. Success breeds success, from both the viewpoint of party support, and bucks from individual donors.
I think we can see current proof of this theory if we look at the Congressional Republicans “Young Guns” program, which is modeled on the successful 2006 efforts of Rahm Emmanuel. The Young Guns had to show fundraising prowess before qualifying for monetary support from the program. This criterion is also being used to prioritize support by the RNC and DNC.
Money is tight, nobody will toss away dollars on a candidate who cannot garner support himself.
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 11:00 am
Milk cartons, wordslinger? I’m more inclined to place Brady and Plummer on “NOT WANTED” posters, along with the undistinguished incumbent, who has been kissing up to Mayor Daley’s mistletoe for my taste!
Comment by fedup dem Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 11:01 am
Regarding Chris Christie comments:
I hang with a Republican crowd, so this is biased. But, so many people are hoping that a Governor Brady will follow a Chris Christie model.
Brady probably has no incentive to ratchet up the debate, at this point, when he’s already leading in the polls.
Comment by Downstater Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 11:04 am
This race is not over by a long shot. My understanding is Rasmussen’s numbers always tilt towards the republican so I take their results with a grain of salt. A second caveat is I doubt if the average voter has given the race much thought and I bet few could even name Bill Brady, let alone tell you his positions.
However, I think Quinn is really going to have to get his act together quick to win this. Part of the game will be motivating the base, and I can say as a good Dem I am not excited about voting for Quinn or Alexi. But I think the republican base is excited about Brady. Second part of the game is convincing the swing voters and again Quinn has an uphill battle. He has been gov for two years and his performance has been mediocre at best. While I think Brady will be worse, the average voter will likely roll the dice and give Brady a shot.
Comment by Objective Dem Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 11:23 am
These polls are too early to mean anything yet.
Public opinion is nothing if not fickle and flighty, often based on fluff.
I thought after the primary that Brady was a pretty sure thing to win w/ a comfortable margin.
Despite your polls I think it is much closer now. Quinn could win
Comment by jaded voter Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 11:31 am
Objective Dem,
“But I think the republican base is excited about Brady.”
Ahhh…. no. Trust me when I say that there are many misgivings among the base about Brady.
Right now, the Republicans are (air quotes) excited (end air quotes) by anyone not a Democrat. Independents are in an anti-incumbancy mood. Democrats are not showing much level of excitement at all.
The first of these guys that offer the independents some compelling reason to vote for them will win this race. The same is true of the Senate race. However, given these candidates, nobody will do so. In Illinois, unlike many other states, I feel this is a “meh” election.
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 11:33 am
Being a female Illinois voter that I would image both camps are trying to win over, I feel like it’s the lesser of two evils. Really unimpressed with Pat Quinn but his commercials about what Illinois daughters can expect from Brady frighten me enough to not vote for Brady.
My fear is too many voters will just take a pass on voting all together. Between the Blago mess and the lack of stand out candidates, I think voter turn out will be really low in November.
Comment by Who cares Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 11:41 am
Hynes in this thing wouldn’t have been a race. 52% Hynes 38% Brady. Oh well.
Comment by I-64 Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 11:41 am
…many misgivings…about Brady…
Maybe. But we have no misgivings about the ineptitude of Quinn. A couple more months of Quinn and we may not need to mention Blagojevich during the Fall campaign.
Kidding. Ol’ Blah-Blah will be FG for quite a while lonher.
Comment by Joe from Joliet Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 11:50 am
I-64-
“Hynes in this thing wouldn’t have been a race. 52% Hynes 38% Brady. Oh well.”
I totally agree. Conversely, if it was Dillard-Quinn the numbers would be similar. And– just imagine!– if it was Dillard-Hynes the voters might actually have a real choice, instead of holding their collective nose and selecting the least-offensive candidate…
Comment by Confused Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 11:54 am
Exactly right Confused!
Comment by I-64 Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 11:56 am
The problem for Quinn (and all the Dems) is that turnout is going to work against them in a big way on top of the polls. If Quinn is trailing by 5%, he’ll lose by 10% when its all said and done.
Lots of comparisons have been made to 1994, and I think it’s a good one to make in some ways. Of course there are notable differences. However, the trend and the overall negative feeling about direction of the country / state will work against the dems on turnout.
Again, I think Quinn is only a winner if he is polling 5-10 points ahead by election day. Anything closer will probably turn into a loss for him.
Comment by siriusly Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 12:00 pm
I somewhat disagree with Raising Kane and Downstater on the “woman” messaging. I know some single-issue women voters who don’t like Quinn but now are solidly voting for him based on those ads. I bet the polling reflects that too. It has shored up a part of his base. Now he needs to focus on some other parts of his demographic.
It’s not going to be the single message that wins for him, but its part of a strategy. He certainly can’t win without that demo.
Comment by siriusly Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 12:03 pm
=Which of the two candidates (Brady or Quinn) is closer to being Illinois’ Chris Christie?=
Well since Brady and Christie both like to support policies that don’t support women, I’m going to say Brady is more like Christie. And don’t be so sure about Christie, he is getting hammered in the editorial pages there about vetoing a family planning bill and his numbers with women are not all that great.
Comment by Really?? Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 12:09 pm
Brady can easily pickup another 5-6 points with the women by simply running a couple campaign ads dispelling the recent women’s fear mongering attempts by Pat Quinn and his commercials.
One comment made to me by a woman (who is normally an Independent) summed it up best: “The possibility of our not being able to make our house payments or my husband possibly losing his job makes everything else pale in comparison.” And, the other dramatic change that I have noticed is the guys that I personally know who are union guys and normally “always vote Democrat” like their union leadership tells them to are now starting to think for themselves. These “rank & file” union guys are telling me that once they go into the privacy of the voting booth in November, they are voting Republican this time because they have seen how voting for Democrat candidates in Illinois has worked out for them.The union leadership has lost credibility with their own rank & file.
Comment by Festus Hagen Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 12:16 pm
There’s way too much time between now and November to project an outcome. Both sides willhave plenty of opportunities to screw things up and seem willing to do it.
Comment by Aldyth Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 12:21 pm
Stating the facts about Brady’s voting history on women’s issues isn’t fear mongering. He is solidly anti-choice (even in the cases of rape or incest), he voted against family leave, and he is on record as opposing insurance coverage for pap smears and mammograms. I’m sorry, how is that fear mongering?
Comment by Really?? Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 12:21 pm
==Stating the facts about Brady’s voting history on women’s issues isn’t fear mongering==
Funny you complain that Kirk talks about the state income tax rate because it isn’t relevant to him..
Tell me how a governor in a Roe V Wade world with a Democratic legislature in this state can do anything about abortion?
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 12:42 pm
Wonder how the poll was conducted? For Illinois it seems that all elections are decided by the chicago vote which always seems to me to be overwhelmingly democratic.
So I wonder if this poll had that bias in it?
Comment by rick Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 12:49 pm
Calling someone “anti-woman” based on your political interpretation misrepresents your political opposition. Doing so is fear mongering because it is an extreme position no one in their right mind would accept - including Brady.
If it is acceptable to name call that Brady is anti-woman, when are we going to hear new claims that he is also racist? I’m certain someone could create an argument similarly based.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 12:50 pm
Quinn peaked at 40%. Thank you Dave Vaught for bringing him back down.
Comment by Joseph Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 12:50 pm
Here’s a headline from one of CF’s other threads”
“Kirk Opposes Quinn-Giannoulias Plan to Raise State Income Tax”
I am surprised that nobody has pointed out that Kirk is a congenital liar, so he must be for the tax.
;-{)>
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 1:04 pm
“Calling someone “anti-woman” based on your political interpretation misrepresents your political opposition.”
You mean the guy who consistently votes ‘no’ on issues important to women (like having our mammograms covered by insurance) makes him ‘pro-women?’
Comment by Cheryl44 Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 1:19 pm
Quinn is playing the only cards he has to play. When you can’t credibly talk about job creation or fiscal responsibility. You have to focus on social issues. He may get lucky and drag his campaign to victory, but it will certainly be without a mandate.
Republicans are hoping that Brady can be disciplined enough to stay on the message of “jobs, jobs and jobs”. Quinn is clearly trying to draw him into the “social issues” trap. Brady can run out the clock on this one, if he doesn’t take the bait.
Comment by Downstater Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 1:56 pm
Is anybody looking at the rise in the “Some other candidate?” It’s in double digits. Crosstabs, Rich? Who’s voting for none of the above?
Comment by soccermom Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 1:58 pm
=Tell me how a governor in a Roe V Wade world with a Democratic legislature in this state can do anything about abortion?=
It is very easy actually. Roe has been chipped away at for years. While yes, Roe is in effect, it no longer allows for complete access to abortion. States have been trying to limit access to services for a long time. South Dakota is a great example. They passed a low that severly limited access to abortions. It was challenged and eventually overturned by the courts, however passing laws like this are designed by anti-choice groups in the hope that they will be challenged and upheld in an attempt to overturn Roe. State can also pass laws regarding what is referred to as “partial birth abortions” and other procedures that are usually done when the mother’s life is at risk. States can also pass laws on parental notification (which IL has actually been fighting over the last few years now). Also, states can provide or not provide funding for family planning services. While this isn’t usally inclusive of abortion services (it is usually contraception, pap smears, pregnancy screening, HIV testing), anti-choice groups are still pretty fond of stopping women from accessing this type of health care. Roe isn’t absolute, and states can definitely pass laws to limit women’s access to services. Which is why Brady is bad for women.
Comment by Really?? Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 2:10 pm
You think the Democratic legislature would go for any of that?
Also I think lumping notification in with the rest of your point is a bit much. I think you would find a decent number of pro-choice moms who don’t have a problem with notification.
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 2:32 pm
That may be so, but is still an issue for the pro-choice movement as a whole.
Comment by Really?? Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 2:43 pm
The women I know vote differently and hold differing views. The idea that any candidate can be called “anti-woman” is ridiculous.
Believe it or not, everyone has a brain regardless of race, gender, religion and political affiliations. The days that “women” or “African-Americans” have one point of view are gone.
So no candidate can be “anti-woman” simply because some group that claims that they speak for all women have decided he/she is “anti-woman”. Not in the real world.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 2:52 pm
Can we please move away from these goofy semantics arguments? It’s so sophomoric.
I’m sure Brady loves his wife and daughter, and they’re both women.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 2:54 pm
Well the pro-choice movement is never going to vote GOP in this state anyway so it isn’t like those votes were lost to Brady, he never was going to get them.
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 2:56 pm
Back in the day, Democratic-controlled GA’s passed tighter abortion regs. pushed by the Archdiocese of Chicago all the time.
Catholic Dems didn’t want to buck Cardinal Cody or Bernardin, and they knew Thompson would veto them anyway.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 2:58 pm
I am beginning to think that Quinn fired off his attacks on Brady on women and social issues a bit too early. Makes me wonder what other arrows Quinn has in his quiver (they must be powerful if he is using this now). While it is a good idea to shape your opponent early in the campaign, I think the overall impact of this recent line of attack will be slight, especially if it gets drowned out by Quinn’s own mis-steps (c.f. Mark Kirk’s campaign).
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 3:01 pm
Me thinks you are giving Quinn too much credit.
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 3:07 pm
Just an institutional memory point. Edgar was openly pro-choice and pro-ERA when ERA was still an issue, ran for Governor on a platform of making a temporary income tax permanent, while the D opposed it, and he did OK among Rs.
Comment by steve schnorf Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 3:09 pm
Schnorf, try not to let facts get in the way of full-mooner dogma, lol.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 3:19 pm
I don’t think anyone was arguing that a Edgar like candidate couldn’t win again. If you had one less moderate in the race we would have a different candidate for governor.
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 3:50 pm
Really?? - But Brady isn’t the legislature - he can’t pass any laws, and doesn’t set the budget, the legislature does that and it will be D for the foreseeable future
Comment by krome Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 8:40 pm
Gotta think at some point voters wake up and realize Brady has no plan. It’s easy to bash Quinn for the specifics he puts out there. But Brady is just an empty suit.
Comment by just sayin' Thursday, Jul 29, 10 @ 10:21 pm