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Collins: “A bad day for the government”

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* The US Attorney’s office has never been quite the same since Patrick Collins left for the private sector. Collins was the heart and soul of that operation. His conviction of George Ryan was a work of art. And while I wasn’t exactly enamored with what he did in Springfield with the botched reform effort, I was in awe of his abilities as a prosecutor.

Collins is doing some TV analysis work, and here he is on WGN admitting frankly that yesterday was a “bad day for the government” in Rod Blagojevich’s trial…

The full segment is here. Let’s hope he’s right about the jury coming back fresh on Monday.

* Roundup…

* Try, try again: It’s a safe bet: The feds will retry Blago on every charge where the jury winds up being permanently deadlocked.

* Jurors may be so split they left fraud alone

* Game on at courthouse as ex-gov waits out verdict

* Rod Blagojevich jury finished with only 2 of 24 counts

* Blago jury can’t decide

* More waiting in Blagojevich case

* Quinn cautions Blagojevich jury should not be second guessed

* Former Ryan juror: deliberations are ‘extremely frustrating‘

* Blagojevich Jury Note Bad News for Prosecutors

* First Insight From Blago Jurors Not Great for Prosecutors

* Questions hang over Blagojevich corruption trial

* Luciano: He knows Lady Luck too well

* Jury deadlock could be good sign for Blagojevich, experts think

* Blagojevich jury deadlocked

* Blagojevich auction pushed back

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 10:23 am

Comments

This is starting to look like a massive cover-up, from Chicago to Washington, D.C.
The jury seems to of been tampered with.
Just saying this whole is starting to have real bad smell.

Comment by Northside Bunker Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 10:28 am
Its not over, yet. Admittedly this is looking like the darkest hour for IL, but it may yet turn out to be our finest hour.

Comment by Ghost Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 10:35 am
I think a mixed bag of verdicts will occur, but this is not going to be a slam dunk.

Comment by Rahm's Parking Meter Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 10:37 am
Rich, I too went back through the list of charges, and my take is a little different than yours.

I think it is unlikely that they would acquit on key charges and then deadlock on the subsidiary ones. Much more likely that they would convict on something, but then get hung up on the related charge of whether he is also guilty of conspiracy.

I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that they’ve decided to convict on the two bribery charges. Those always seemed to me to be the clearest and strongest parts of the case. Plus, I can see the jury deciding to tackle the easiest charges first and get them out of the way, and I think these were easiest ones.

Just my 2 cents.

Comment by Don't Worry, Be Happy Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 10:39 am
The big question is why? Why did the feds rush the investigation? Why not let him complete the sale? It posed no threat to human life, so why not let them complete the act instead of having to make attempted conspiracy cases? The idea of attempted conspiracy is hard for law students to wrangle, much less people off the streets.

Why did the rush the trial? They nailed everyone and then went after the big Fish Ryan. Why not do the same round up on Blago? We were willing to nail Fawell and threaten his fiance, why did we not nail Rob first, indict Patti, then squeeze Rod.

There is NO arguement that the handling of the case has been very unusual and not nearly as methodical as is typical in federal prosecutions. If you have even seen meth cases, this was not done well from a federal standard, and you cannot dispute that. The question is Why?

Comment by the Patriot Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 10:42 am
The feds have to retry, if only to save face. They appear to be losing a case where everyone except the jury is pretty sure the guy is guilty.

Comment by The Captain Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 10:43 am
As an aside, has there ever been a trial of this nature where the jury’s notes to the judge and court inner workings have been so out in public and the subject of so many headlines and ripe for conjecture before a verdict has been rendered? There may be, but I can’t come up with any. I personally am finding this “we’re all right there in the jury room” sensibility of this trial and deliberation rather troubling.

Comment by Responsa Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 11:07 am
First note: If you follow CapFax while a news event is unfurling, you needn’t read any of the MSM analysis since the people who post here pretty much wrote the stories you will read. Either great minds think alike or the posters here are the inspiration for some of the stories. Kudos to Rich for keeping this place going.

The Pat Collins clip is spellbinding. I watched it twice. Not a good day for the government pretty much sums the whole thing up.

If the jury acquits/hangs, I think that on those hung counts will not all be retied. Were I the prosecutors, I would try to narrow the case to less than three counts. Sociological studies show that when people try to do more than three things, they lose focus. I would find my three best counts (based on the jury polling we will inevitably see) and then beat those counts into the ground. More flipcharts with lines drawn between dots, that sort of thing to guide the jurors in their deliberation.

I would also ask for a change of venue (which may be rejected) to get out of the Chicago media market/jury pool.

I would let Robert walk on any future Federal action.

Don’t Worry Be Happy, I think you are close to the mark, but I think that the jury may be closer to a verdict on the conspiracy to commit charges than the actually bribes themselves. Not a lot (Any?) of money or tangible goods changed hands. Even the Patti/Rezko stuff is arguable without Tony on the stand to drive the point home and let us know what he was doing, first-hand.

Put yourself in the jury’s spot a second. I think it is a sure thing that they discussed the wire fraud counts, just not in depth. If they can’t reach consensus on the underlying counts, why bother to look at the wire fraud where the discussion of the underlying counts took place. Now the judge tells you to go back to the deliberation room. I don’t think it would take me too long to return a hung jury if we couldn’t resolve those underlying charges.

So basically, we are looking at two counts, which could but probably won’t include Robert. And we have no way of knowing what their verdict is on the agreed to counts.

Prediction 1: Jury hands down verdict on Monday afternoon, Tuesday morning.

Prediction 2: 50% (up from yesterday’s guess of 25%) Rod walks. 75% (same as yesterday) Rob walks.

Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 11:23 am
So it’s only a “good day for the government” if they win a court case against an elected offical? This comment shows all the arrogance that is Patrick Collins. Why not talk about how the sytem worked and the “government got too big” for it’s britches? Who cares who wins as long as it’s our side!

Comment by Please... Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 11:26 am
It already seems like the jury wants to abandon ship, this case is obviously over their heads. I predict possible mistrial.

Comment by Wensicia Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 11:46 am
Only in Illinois….

Comment by Northside Bunker Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 12:04 pm
It’s beginning to look like “White Collar Crime” flourishes in Illinois.
It could be a whole new chapter in next “Enjoy Illinois” brochure, jury after magnificent jury.

Comment by Wacker Drive Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 12:27 pm
It will be Illinois’ luck that they will have to pay Blago’s salary, retroactive to the impeachment.

Comment by PPHS Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 12:28 pm
wait. wait. wait. one guilty is a win for the prosecution.

that said, the panel on WTTW last night was illuminating. even
the ever grating, never met a guy who deserves death
Andrea Lyon was illuminating.

in the lead up to the trial the US Supremes struck down the
honest services possibility. so they had to go with other
charges. and it seems the jury instructions are new and
confusing. as Lyon said, written in passive voice, and
as Mike Monico said, overly professorial, not “he asked
for a bribe.” and the same was true of the trial itself.

in other words, this jury may have too many words to work
with. also, Monico said the jury, like most reasonable people,
would think, hey, who cares about all the swearing and some
of the things he said, sounds like things I’ve said.

also, that said, Monico seemed to think that the lying
to the FBI charge could stick and Robert could walk.

Monico is really good. Patrick Cotter could not compete,
and Lori Lightfoot was dry, but pretty good. that show
is worth a look.

Comment by Amalia Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 12:42 pm
I’ll bet Rod’s on the phone this weekend with Glenn Selig, The Publicity Agency planning his world tour.
The $ signs are just rolling around in Rod’s little head like a crazed slot machine.
Time to get fitted for some new suits, tailored shirts and power ties.

Comment by Suspicious Activity Report Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 12:59 pm
Please…

When Collins says it was a bad day for the government he means the prosecution had a bad day. sheesh.

And you wonder how jury’s get confused.

Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 3:40 pm
Why would that be at all confusing?

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 3:42 pm
I’m referring to “Please at 11:26″ who seems to think Collins is talking about Government in general rather than the adversarial relationship between the prosecution and the defense.

Yes, it is only a good day for the prosecution if they win. That’s the way the system works. Collins isn’t making some overall commentary on the government.

Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 3:49 pm
I just watched the Collins tape. not exactly rocket science,
I would have expected more from someone so profusely
lauded. Irv Miller, a regular on CBS, is way more illuminating.
he talks jury mindset, possibilities with the exact counts
that could be tried again, and he’s passiionate about it.
It’s been fun watching him on multiple newscasts, and
he’s the regular legal commentator for CBS2.
Irv is also a former prosecutor, just not a Fed. he was
a high ranking supervisor in the Cook County State’s Attorney’s
Office. i’m also guessing that he’s had some experience
going up against Sam A., the daddy.

Comment by Amalia Friday, Aug 13, 10 @ 5:19 pm
Rich,

You fell for Pat Collins’ PR. Pat was a very hard-working member of the team. He didn’t do the Ryan case, or any other case, alone. Most AUSA’s work quietly and don’t seek PR. Others like the press. Pat has a lot of charisma, energy, and talent, but was neither the heart, soul, nor brains of the operation.

Comment by Criminal lawyer Sunday, Aug 15, 10 @ 1:27 pm