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* Rasmussen’s latest, with previous Ras polls in brackets…
Brady: 46% [48%, 44%, 43%, 47% 45%, 45%, 47%]
Quinn: 37% [35%, 37%, 40%, 36% 38%, 38%, 37%]
Some Other Candidate 6% [6%, 11%, 9%, 8% 5%, 7%, 6%]
Not sure 11% [12%, 9%, 8%, 10% 11%, 10%, 9%]
For the first time, they also included “leaners” in the poll. In other words, those who say they are undecided are asked whom they are leaning towards. The margin narrows a wee bit…
Brady: 49%
Quinn: 41%
Some Other Candidate 3%
Not sure 7%
It really would be nice if Rasmussen started polling the other candidates in this race.
From the pollster…
This race now moves from Leans GOP to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
From far away, maybe it looks that way. I still don’t see it up close, though.
Back to the pollster…
Brady receives support from 85% of Republicans, while Quinn is favored by just 68% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Brady holds a commanding 61% to 17% lead.
Quinn, who took over from impeached governor Rod Blogojevich more than 18 months ago, continues to face a $13-billion state deficit, one of the country’s worst. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of voters in the state know someone who is out of work and looking for a job. Forty-three percent (43%) say the job market is worse than a year ago, while only 15% say its better.
Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Illinois voters approve of the job Quinn is doing as governor. Sixty percent (60%), however, disapprove of his job performance.
Brady is viewed Very Favorably by 19% of the state’s voters and Very Unfavorably by 17%. Quinn earns Very Favorable marks from 10% and Very Unfavorable reviews from 31%.
Both candidates are well-known in the state, but at this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
* A check of the crosstabs shows Quinn doing quite well with African-Americans. The Illinois Chamber, you may recall, claimed that once those black voter numbers firmed up for Quinn, this could be a 5-6 point race. But with 75 percent black support, it’s still a 9-point race. And Scott Lee Cohen hasn’t ramped up his campaign yet. Quinn’s black support rises to 80 percent with leaners, which accounts for just under half of Quinn’s one-point narrowing because Brady picks up an additional point among African-Americans and rises to 10.
* Methodology…
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on August 23, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
*** UPDATE *** Rothenberg has the governor’s race at “Toss-up/Tilt Republican,” but he’s also just moved Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson to “Pure toss-up” status…
Illinois 11. Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D) finds herself in deeper trouble than she expected, as GOP challenger Adam Kinzinger has emerged as a serious threat to her. The state political environment is increasingly toxic for Democrats, and polling shows Halvorson, a former leader in the state legislator, in bad shape. Move from Toss-up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-up as Halvorson’s prospects deteriorate.
Other pundit ratings on this race, from Halvorson’s opponent…
The Cook Political Report - Toss-Up (moved from Lean D, 8/17/10)
Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 12:56 pm
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A nine point spread with Brady almost at 50 with leaners is a “tossup”?
Interesting analysis.
Comment by Dirt Digger Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:06 pm
Interesting analysis.
Maybe Rasmussen is finally admitting that their polls have a fairly significant Republican lean?
Comment by dave Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:07 pm
Someone has to stop SLC’s campaign from putting up his damn sings in EVERY public right away along heavily trafficed routes. Disagree if you will, but that very strategy during the primary has a lot to do with his LG victory. Their methodology is repitition and conditioning. After you see the name for months on end you are programmed to vote for it on election day. People say “signs dont vote” but this strategy worked for him in February. The practice is illegal and someone NEEDS to step up and call attention to if Quinn wants to limit the impact of SLC in this race.
This may sound silly to some, but trust me…
Comment by tre Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:08 pm
dave, PPP is DKos’ new pollster and they had this at 9. This is no tossup.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:09 pm
Without Cohen, whitney and the conservative guy whose name escapes me its hard to really get a full picture of the gap.
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:18 pm
I’d like to see this poll with Whitney, SLC, Green and White all in the mix. Whitney may draw from Quinn, SLC has the resources to draw a few points also, it’s a question of how much Green and White draw from Brady.
Comment by John Bambenek Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:18 pm
I’m looking forward to mid-September’s Rasmussen poll, by then we should have a clearer picture. I too would like to see other candidates included in future polls.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:21 pm
Well, what can we say?
Brady by nine if we don’t include the other candidates eating away at the Governor’s numbers.
My gut says Brady by double digits right now - easily.
As weak as Quinn is now, voting for Whitney is easier for me to do. My vote won’t change this outcome, and I’d rather make a statement against the past ten years of insanity with which we’ve been dealt.
So, Quinn is going to keep on losin’ voters like me.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:32 pm
===Maybe Rasmussen is finally admitting that their polls have a fairly significant Republican lean?
In both the Senate and Gubernatorial races this year the only difference between Rasmussen and others is that Rasmussen seems to be capturing 3-4 percent as solid instead of leaners. There is no evidence of bias in the Rasmussen Illinois polls other than perhaps counting a few leaners as more solid.
Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:32 pm
tre…
you said “if Quinn wants to limit the impact of SLC in this race”… too late.
Comment by Wondering... Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:34 pm
VM,
I know you’ve said you can’t bring yourself to vote for Brady - gonna throw your vote away on the Green party? Would you still vote that way if the race was much closer?
Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:37 pm
Brady and Quinn keep stepping in their own stuff…perhaps Quinn more than Brady. I wouls say that’s why the other candidates in the race will make a difference. Yes, they should be included in the polling. I continue to think the Dems can make a lot of hay by splitting the Baggies off from the “mainstream” GOP and thus diminishing Brady’s strength. But Quinn’s gaff’s are making Whitney more and more attractive. It may not be a wasted vote if the electorate is split between five candidates.
Comment by Deep South Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:51 pm
Whitney and Cohen pretty much guarantee Brady will be our next Governor.
Comment by Rich Miller's Dead Friends Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:57 pm
“Whitney and Cohen pretty much guarantee Brady will be our next Governor.”
I think that honor goes to Quinn.
Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:58 pm
Rich, any idea how the candidates are doing with Latino voters? Not sure if that was in the Rasmussen report…..
Comment by The Gerry Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 1:59 pm
RMDF,
Yeah, Quinn ain’t got nothin’ to do w/this mess.
You just stay with that if it makes you feel better.
Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:00 pm
RMDF — Wow what a classy name… I think your name covers how much value to put into your thoughts.
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:02 pm
So there is plenty of evidence that Brady is the frontrunner. Now let’s all sit back and see how comfortable he is in the spotlight. Cue the media: who is Bill Brady? Let the vetting begin.
It’s rare for a challenger to succeed using a Rose Garden strategy. As Mayor Daley would say, Brady should get used to being scrutined evvey day. We’ll see how he holds up under the pressure and in the spotlight.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:02 pm
Quinn needs a lot of money and a lot of help from Brady in a hurry.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:03 pm
Let the vetting begin?
Too bad it didn’t happen with BHO!
Comment by BIG R.PH. Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:04 pm
Somebody should have a pool for the date Quinn first invokes Harry Truman in ‘48. That’s the traditional response of a Dem going down hard.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:05 pm
When a supposed right-leaning pollster and a supposed left-leaning pollster both have the race at the same spreads, it’s a safe bet that this race isn’t a toss-up. But I also don’t know how much stock Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook put into their gubernatorial and state assembly predictions/spreads. Charlie Cook’s analyses of Congressional and U.S. Senate elections is great.
Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:06 pm
47th,
Vetting? Ain’t gonna happen, that ship sailed in March. The budget mess and Roddy pretty much kept the eye off the vetting ball. We finally get the GA out of town. But wait, Alexi is a mob banker Kirk is a liar sucks the air out of the room for a month. Rod’s trial takes over and again sucks the coverage until the trial ends. Good News! Retrial, which takes another week out of the media. Quinn decides to assume command of the media by a pretty much uninterrupted string of gaffes.
Now we’re in September, 70 days left. Assuming reporters aren’t sitting on some major vetting story, there is about a 45 day window for something to break on Brady. Voters need the last 14 days to make up their minds, which is when about half the voters do it. I just don’t see Brady’s record from votes years ago (valid as the issue may be) making it into the news cycles in the next month and a half.
The media will be concentrating on the moves the candidates make in the next 6 weeks, because the horse race is definitely more interesting to cover than the issues. Given Quinn’s track record, he’d good for another gaffe or two. Brady will deflect all Quinn statements to “jobs/economy/deficit/debt”
I really think this one’s over.
Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:19 pm
What is missing from the current late summer analysis is that once the low information voters start to focus starting in mid-September, Quinn’s and other democrat numbers are going to really turn south. There is NOTHING on the economic horizon to turn this train wreck around.
Comment by Louis Howe Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:22 pm
I am a long time Democratic operative and I think Rasmussen’s numbers are some of the best in the business. I regularly use his Pulse Public Opinion for polling at every level in Illinois. He is about 1/4 the price of the typical political pollster, his people are way less arrogant and his numbers are on the mark. I’ve used him statewide, in the suburbs and the city, in white, African American and Hispanic districts and am always pleased. Just this primary his numbers 10 days out were withing 1 point of the election day results in all three of the district I used him in. People who dismiss him as “right leaning” do not understand the intellectual integrity of good pollsters.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:25 pm
Would you still vote that way if the race was much closer?
With Quinn dropping back, it becomes easier for me not to vote for him. He isn’t going to win. These polls don’t even reflect his current staff melt-down hitting the news and that ugly situation just isn’t going to help him.
We are too close to the election for any development of a back story for this, or for voters to move onto the next punch. For the past month, Quinn’s news has been the news - all of it bad. He is generating his own demise.
Brady is going to have to stay in Chicagoland, smile to show he has no fangs, and show off his happy side to counter any attacks coming his way from desperate media and desperate politicians.
And you can’t blame them. A Brady election can be a huge shake up. He would have four years to watch our economy improve and lend his governorship a semblance of credibility regarding other Bloomington-GOP ideas of which I wouldn’t be too fond of seeing.
So, I’m ready for my Whitney vote, and I’m ready for Governor Brady. I’m going to sip this noxious brew so that on Inaugural Day I won’t have to down it all in one nasty slug.
Pat - you blew this so badly!
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:27 pm
Oh - and I’m going to be pretty sad to see Debbie come home. Although we don’t agree politically on most issues, I certainly have been proud of her political success in Illinois and in Washington.
Obama/Pelosi didn’t give her a chance to reach out to her Center-Right district. Those votes she made really hurt her this year.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:36 pm
Rich, so how do you account with all of Quinn’s blunders, this Ras poll shows the gap has narrowed to 9 points?
Comment by "Old Timer Dem" Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:37 pm
Background noise.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:38 pm
===Those votes she made really hurt her this year. ===
Meh. She campaigned on behalf of all those ideas. If she flipped, she’d get whacked, too.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:39 pm
Folks, if you want Rasmussen to start including all the ballot-qualified candidates, you need to call and write them directly. The Green Party has been asking them to be inclusive for a long time, but it would help if we were joined by others from all political perspectives who want to see accurate polls.
Comment by PFK Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:46 pm
there will be some surprises in this campaign, so i would not cave in and give it to Mr. NO. voters in illinois have to face reality and find a way out of the mess this state is mired in. mr. NO doesn’t offer a way out
Comment by Doug Dobmeyer Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 2:54 pm
My earlier post was to highlight that very few voters know (or care) who the C of S is in the govenor’s office. (Not that it isn’t an important position). This announcement by Quinn is a 24-36 hours news item, that has no impact on the outcome of the race…….unless you believe that Quinn’s stumbles are all the result of a bad outgoing C of S.
Comment by Downstater Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 3:57 pm
===that has no impact on the outcome of the race===
It’s negative noise, and that ain’t good.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 3:58 pm
Brady: 49%
Quinn: 41%
Yikes! NoTaxBill must really be in the dumper..if the best he can do is 8 with leaners he will be toast in November.
What a shame
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 4:01 pm
–Meh. She campaigned on behalf of all those ideas. If she flipped, she’d get whacked, too.–
Exactly. Why can’t anyone else remember that?
Comment by Apple Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 4:10 pm
We Poll America -
Illinois CD 11
Date of Poll: 8/4/2010
Participants: 1,015 registered voters
Margin of Error: ±3.07%
Total Democrat Republican Independent
CONGRESS CHOICE
(D) Debbie Halvorson Total 31.72% Dems 70.03% Reps 5.90% Indepenents21.74%
(R) Adam Kinzinger Total 51.64% Dems 13.03% Reps 86.34% Independents 53.62%
Other/Unsure Total 16.63% Dems 16.94% Reps 7.76% Independents 24.64%
Halvorson had the independant voters in 2008, but has lost them big time this year. She is 20 points behind with two months to go.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 4:36 pm
” The big win, from my perspective, is health care.”
-Rep. Phil Hare, August 17, on his major accomplishments in Congress this year.
Yeah - don’t listen to any of the Democratic advisors, Phil! Go out there and sell this thing like you haven’t a clue what your constituents are saying.
Add Phil to the list of guys coming home in January. Clueless!
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 4:53 pm
Interesting, VM. I knew that Hare has been reported to have said a few really strange and controversial things recently– and some constituents in the 17th apparently feel he has been dismissive of their concerns, if not downright rude. Considering he has not been in congress all that long to build up a history of service and a reservoir of good will in his district, that seems to be a rather strange approach to campaigning. Most polls still show it as a safe seat for him, though, I believe.
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 6:20 pm
VMan, as always, is the voice of The Majority. Unfortunately, not the Silent Majority. Cross him at your peril.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 6:36 pm
Quinn is toast. I have never voted for an R in the 40 years that I have been voting,however I cannot vote for this incompetent loser. The worst candidate since Hynes V Obama. Brady can”t be any worse and can’t do any damage anyway with Madigan and Cullerton in charge.Unfortunately we have a lose-lose situation for the people of Illinois.
Comment by Eileen Left Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 8:04 pm
==Brady can”t be any worse and can’t do any damage anyway with Madigan and Cullerton in charge.==
Wanna bet? The Governor writes exec orders, hires all the agency heads, and can kill an agency with neglect. The agencies also write the rules and enforce (or not) the laws passed; a law that is not enforced is as good as no law.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Aug 24, 10 @ 11:36 pm