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* Sheila Simon thinks we’re stupid or something…
“I’d challenge anyone who says that we are trailing badly downstate. I’ve been campaigning all over the state and I’ve been getting a good response wherever I’ve been…Not everyone is happy, but I’m running into a good number of folks that makes me encouraged about our support across the state.”
OK, since she issued the challenge, here are the Tribune’s regional crosstabs…
I know that Ms. Simon is not a math professor at SIU, but that’s a 25-point Brady lead Downstate. And I don’t know about her, but I would consider a 25-point deficit to be “trailing badly.”
It’s too bad the linked story didn’t point that out as well.
*** UPDATE *** Video…
Simon was asked about an actual poll, but a reporter quoted the wrong poll in his question. It was the Tribune, not Rasmussen, which had those regional crosstabs. Rasmussen doesn’t post regional xtabs for Illinois.
* Gov. Pat Quinn thinks Bill Brady has a secret plan to raise taxes…
Gov. Pat Quinn [yesterday] suggested voters should be wary of promises not to raise taxes from opponent Bill Brady, saying Republican governors have a history of doing just that once they’re safely elected.
“That’s the Republican way,” Quinn said. “That’s what (Gov. Jim) Thompson did, twice. That’s what George Ryan did. That’s what they do.”
It’s also what Jim Edgar did, but Quinn didn’t mention him. Still, for a guy whose own tax hike will be used (now, after a major poll-driven revision) mainly to provide property tax relief, Quinn has a lot of nerve suggesting that somebody else has a secret plan to balance the budget. No way will Quinn stop with a one percent tax hike if he’s elected because that one percent will do nothing to stop the flood of red ink.
* From an Alexi Giannoulias press release…
As with Congressman Mike Castle’s stunning loss last night and the losses of Senator Lisa Murkowski and Senator Bob Bennett before him, the anti-incumbent, conservative wave will claim Congressman Mark Kirk as its next victim in November, with Mike Labno as the only pro-life, pro-gun candidate running for Senate in Illinois.
Congressman Mark Kirk, a 10-year incumbent Washington insider, has tried and failed repeatedly to curry favor with the conservative base in Illinois, and now conservatives have a clear choice with a legitimate challenge from the right with Libertarian candidate Mike Labno officially on the Illinois ballot.
Labno doesn’t have any money for TV ads, and he has received mostly passing reference in news stories this month. Unless Giannoulias intends to inform voters of this Libertarian candidacy via expensive TV ads (and Giannoulias barely has enough for his own ads), then the vast majority of voters simply won’t know the guy exists.
* Mark Kirk apparently hasn’t been in many taverns…
“One commentator said the blogosphere is like an Irish bar at midnight,” Kirk said. “Everybody is throwing chairs at each other, and then the next morning, no one remembers what the argument was about.
I’ve been in quite a few Irish bars and have never seen a fight before 2 o’clock, but whatever. The entire blogosphere isn’t rowdy and drunk. Newspaper comment sections are where the real problem drunks hang out.
* The Alexander County clerk is an extremely busy, preposterously stupid, amazingly lazy, or hugely corrupt person…
State election officials have been alerted about possible irregularities in Alexander County’s voter registration lists, but the county clerk says safeguards are in place to help prevent problems in November.
A newspaper report suggested the number of registered voters may exceed the number of residents eligible to vote in the southern Illinois county. County Clerk Francis Lee says she hasn’t had time to purge the rolls since taking office last year, but it’s her “intention to get it cleaned up.”
She says the process could take two years.
Two years? Are you kidding me? There are 7,100 people over the age of 18 in that county and 7.500 registered voters. Her office could hand address that many “Return to Sender” postcards in a few days.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 8:52 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
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The more you know about Alexander County, the more sense this makes.
Comment by Way Way Down Here Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 8:57 am
Irish people, and I am 100% Irish, usually have thick skin and laugh easily at themselves. But I just have to wince when I see Mark Kirk take a cheap shot at a pretty large voting block with a lame attempt at humor about Irish drinking and fighting.
Really? I still say he reminds me of Hermie, the cartoon elf who wanted to be a dentist.
Comment by Knome Sane Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:03 am
http://activerain.com/image_store/uploads/5/2/4/9/0/ar119937832909425.gif
Comment by Knome Sane Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:06 am
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind. The answer is blowing in the wind.
Comment by N'ville Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:11 am
Business as usual in Alexander County.
Comment by Deep South Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:12 am
Apparently CommandoMakeItUp doesn’t do blogs because unlike Irish bars there is usually a data trail that retains everyone’s mutterings — at least for awhile. Thus our ability to remember all the double talk on military, marriage, school teaching, sail boating, pot holder weaving and every other claim
BTW this must be a first for Capt Fax to cite a Tribune poll as evidence of anything other than Market Shares has scammed the Trib again.
Gotta love firsts!
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:16 am
Apparently Alexi reads polls/this blog as well as he runs banks and manages college loan programs. The congressman is within 5 points of brady with conservatives.
Comment by shore Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:22 am
Rich, you got it a bit wrong (”It’s also what Jim Edgar did…”). Edgar did not follow a secret plan to raise taxes after the election. He campaigned explicitly to keep the then 2-year surcharge permanent, while Hartigan campaigned to have it expire. Edgar was very clear and open, so lumping him in this way is not quite accurate (and probably explains why Quinn left Edgar off his “secret plan” list).
Comment by anon Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:24 am
anon, I was talking about the 1994 race, not the 1990 race.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:25 am
Quinn is a disaster for downstate democrats. Unlike Chicago and the burb voters, State government operations are high profile and meaningful to downstate voters. Quinn has been a terrible disappointment in his lack of management expertise and Chicago-centric focus. He’s toast downstate and will get less than 35% of the vote in this region. He may even underperform Blago’s 24% in Sangamon County. Pitiful and Pathetic….
Comment by Louis Howe Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:25 am
Perhaps they are just responding to her banjo playing.
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:28 am
I’d challenge anyone who says we are trailing badly downstate.
We are trailing by only 25 points. Now if it was 26 or more I think you may have a case. Right now I say we are trailing mediocrely.
And not trailing - following. Almost leading actually.
More accurately I’d say we are leading poorly downstate. But we are leading. Poorly for now.
So I challenge anyone who is a daughter of a revered Illinois senator and can play banjo to a BANJO OFF in an Irish bar after midnight in Cairo where we lead in the polls against Brady and his secret tax hike plan.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:33 am
It never fails to unnerve me when people cling to nothing but “my gut” and/or “just have that feeling” defenses of losing efforts.
“We’re not down.”
“The polls say you are.”
“They’re wrong.”
“There’s more than one.”
“I’d like to know who did them and how.”
“They were done by different pollsters, but all show you engaged in a losing effort.”
“I don’t care. They’re wrong.”
“Why do you say that?”
“My mom said lots of her friends are voting for me, so I just have a feeling.”
Okay.
Comment by RikiTavi Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:34 am
Anybody remember Hanley’s House of Happiness on 79th st?Fights started at 11pm.More to the Simon issue,Sheila’s position in the law school was Lecturer,not Professor,until the liberal faculty decided to change it for her.She’s a nice person,but analysis probably is not her best game.perhaps if she stuck to being nice,she’d have a better image than being analytical
Comment by jack the dog Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:42 am
Sheila Simon is actually a drag on the ticket in Southern Illinois. She looks like her father and can even say things that Paul would have said, but it comes across as strident hard leftist, where her father never did. I’ve seen people actually recoil from her presence on TV. She does not connect outside of a college campus.
On the other hand people have such a low opinion of Quinn a former Democratic lawmaker mentioned yesterday he would rather see a Simon-Quinn ticket.
I’ve never seen Democrats so openly bash the governor and president. They’ve circled the wagons and are focusing on the local races only.
As to Alexander County figure on corruption as the cause. Greasing the polls is a long tradition there. The county has lost almost 15 percent of its population since 2000 according to census estimates.
Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:47 am
The Quinn-Simon Campaign has avoided hiring talented downstate campaign folks with experience because they’re focusing on winning by large margins in Cook and the collars. The downstate numbers are starting to reflect that. That’s their strategic choice and gamble.
Comment by NW Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:51 am
I think Sheila was/is their downstate strategy…
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:55 am
==That’s their strategic choice and gamble.==
That may be very true NW, but then why did Quinn “waste” his LG slot with waaay downstate banjo playing Sheila, instead of someone who could have actually helped him in the city and collars? The Q man is a flaming political genius.
Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:58 am
Simon is just one bad decision in a long line of Quinn bad decisions. I can not begin to describe my dissappointment in his leadership. He has fumbled so many critical decisions. I think Quinn is a great guy who truly is tyring to do what is best, but at the end of the day he suffers from the same poblem asBlago, he wont listen to his advisors.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 9:58 am
I don’t think people know or care about Sheila Simon in places like Decatur, Champaign, Bloomington, Mt. Vernon.
These are all “downstate” towns, but they don’t have a necessary affinity to Carbondale and the Simon name.
Comment by Downstater Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 10:11 am
=== focusing on winning by large margins in Cook and the collars ===
Ah yes, the Dillard strategy.
Comment by Joe from Joliet Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 10:13 am
Ah yes, the Dillard strategy.
Just because it did not work, doesn’t mean it was a bad idea. After all, with two other Dupage candidates to siphon off “his” votes and his “endorsement” he did come rather close to a win.
Comment by Pat collins Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 10:15 am
The problem is, Downstate is going so far, um, south on Quinn and his city and Cook numbers are currently so weak that this strategy could easily fail.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 10:16 am
Having a strategy going in is great. Things chanhe during a long campagn. When Jim Ryan got in and it was very clear that he was going to lose a lot of Cook and especially collar county votes, what did he do to adjust his game plan? Circumstances changed and Dillard didn’t. Suddenly, downstate was much more revant than expected. I would think that thought would be still be fresh in campaigners minds.
Comment by Joe from Joliet Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 10:24 am
Interesting take from Giannoulias…one could also argue that LeAlan Jones of the Green Party who is polling around 9%, is the genuine Progressive candidate, who has no ties to the Chicago political machine. Jones is a much more legitimate challenge to Giannoulias than Labno is to Kirk.
Comment by Virtus Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 10:44 am
Would like to see how many respondents there were in the Trib’s “downstate” sample. Bet it wasn’t 100.
Comment by Ray del Camino Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 10:45 am
Ray, just keep whistling past that graveyard.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 10:46 am
To borrow a famous line from Spinal Tap, what Simon is trying to say is: We’re not less popular downstate, it’s just that our appeal is more selective
Comment by Secret Square Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 11:02 am
Alexander County’s registration list probably includes some dead people. All Illinois election authorities should check obits., for at least the past two years, and remove dead people, from the lists.
Comment by Conservative Veteran Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 11:04 am
I don’t think it is fair to criticize Ms Simon. Sheila has done her job - she has sewn up the Carbondale/SIU, green tea drinking, folk music coffee house, hard left college student/faculty vote…..all 250 of them.
Comment by dupage dan Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 11:12 am
Kirk can’t be allowed to get away with this racist statement. It’s wrong on so many levels and highlights how out of touch and tone-deaf this waspy twit really is. Do people on the north shore still really think like this? Ridiculous.
Comment by corvax Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 11:18 am
===I know that Ms. Simon is not a math professor at SIU, but that’s a 25-point Brady lead Downstate. And I don’t know about her, but I would consider a 25-point deficit to be “trailing badly.”===
Umm… call it within the margin?
Comment by Obamarama Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 11:21 am
dupage dan,
Sheila also has a lock on banjo picking Woody Guthrie progressives. Add 10.
Comment by Cincinnatus Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 11:23 am
What’s wrong with that strategy is clear: to win downstate you have to be somewhere in the hunt downstate. You can win statewide and still lose downstate 55-45%, 56-44%, 57-43%. But once you let your numbers slide into the 30s downstate you are inviting defeat.
Comment by NW Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 11:25 am
Cincinnatus,
The banjo picking Woody Guthrie progressives meet weekly at the folk music coffee house - already included.
Comment by dupage dan Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 11:30 am
Consider this.
Sheila Simon’s strongest base is the city of Carbondale Illinois.
She ran for Mayor of Carbondale a few years ago and lost.
I understand Quinn thought the power of her last name would help, and look good on a bumper sticker, but if she cannot win a mayors race, in a town that she has lived in her entire life, why did Quinn think she could deliver downstate in the first place?
Comment by Living in Oklahoma Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 11:32 am
“waspy twit”… Really? Isn’t that racist?
“Newspaper comment sections are where the real problem drunks hang out.” LOL, ain’t that the truth.
Comment by RobRoy Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 11:32 am
Living in Oklahoma said,
“… and look good on a bumper sticker…”
Could be Neil or Paul for all the voters know. Both would probably help more…
Comment by Cincinnatus Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 11:49 am
===“waspy twit”… Really? Isn’t that racist?===
Waspy Twits ceased to be a race many years ago. They are, however, on the endangered species list according to some.
Comment by Way Way Down Here Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 11:57 am
In defense of Dillard’s strategy. He did have a downstate push scheduled for the last week of the campaign, when is father unfortunately passed away. Even a couple events may have made up the 200 votes he needed.
Comment by downstate hack Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 12:00 pm
Is Brady’s secret plan to raise taxes to impeach Quinn, have him arrested by the Feds and tried on numerous counts? Oh wait, that was Quinn’s secret plan to raise taxes. But seriously, this is just another indication that Quinn has lost it.
Comment by The KQ Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 12:34 pm
Quinn and Bady on a tax increase is a re-run of the Mondale- Reagan debate about taxes. Mondale put his cards on the table and admitted up-front that an increase was necessary and that he’d call for it. Reagan prevaricated but then there was a tax increase, after he was safely elected. As well as massive deficit spending. Which guy was more honest? The one that lost the election, obviously. Because voters, in the aggregate, are dumb as well as selfish. They demand to be lied to and promised things without having to make any sacrifices. Then pretend to be surprised after the election. It is all kabuki theatre.
Comment by Gregor Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 12:43 pm
I don’t think any change in the Dem Lt. Gov. candidate would have made any difference for the incumbent in such a sorry mess of a state. Quinn just has the misfortune of being the faulty, default candidate at such a faulty time in such a faulty place. The red country polls are telling us: let the anti tax, anti abortion dude, faulty as he may be, have a shot.
Anybody downstate seeing any Quinn signs along the roads? I have yet to see my first!
Comment by Vole Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 12:50 pm
no, “waspy twit” was ironic. but i was speaking only of him, not descendants of anglo-saxons generally. i guess i may have unfairly generalized about north shore residents, but i don’t know that many and only asked if his thinking is representative.
Comment by corvax Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 1:12 pm
Kirk isn’t engaging in ethnic stereotyping with his Irish bar remark. He’s describing in vivid detail, as only he can, an evening he had at the “Cork & Kerry” with Eamon DeValera and Michael Collins, when all of sudden James Joyce and Bono walked in and……
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 1:38 pm
There are lot of deceased people on the voter rolls in Alexander County. And the Democrats are currently taking up donations for buckets of grease to grease everything and anything associated with the November 2nd election. Please donate whatever you can. Votes cost $3.00 down here. It would take the United States Marines to clean up all of the crruption in this small county.
Comment by James Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 2:02 pm
I doubt Alexander County has the money to do a mailing. I seem to remember that the Sheriff’s squad cars were repossessed last year.
Comment by BigTwich Wednesday, Sep 15, 10 @ 8:33 pm