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* 4:30 pm - Charlie Cook has just moved Democratic Congressman Phil Hare’s race from “Lean Democratic” to “Tossup.”
Not unexpected. But things sure are going south in a hurry for the Democrats. Cook rates this as a +3 Democratic district. It’s not one they should be in danger of losing.
* And just so we have something else to talk about in comments, our old friend Simon Edelman has produced another video for the Quinn campaign. Check it out…
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 4:30 pm
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And this district is heavily gerrymandered and snake-like - which it should had been challenged in court and declared illegal. And geez do I hope we don’t get any more ridiciously drawn districts during remapping next year.
Comment by Segatari Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 4:37 pm
Bravo on the jobs video.
The Quinn campaign is listening to Rich Miller.
Comment by Chubs Mahoney Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 4:41 pm
I can see the counter ad…
“Lets create jobs that will last, not ones that can go away if folks don’t like a TV show. Jobs that will last more than it takes to produce a season to television. Jobs that last all year”
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 4:52 pm
I have absolutely no problem with creating 400 jobs, but don’t most TV shows tend to be a bit transient?
I would rather have seen a new manufacturing plant that will be around for a while. I guess there isn’t one?
Comment by Bubs Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 4:53 pm
How about a video of all the teachers who lost jobs thanks to Quinn refusing to pay money owed to the state’s school districts?
Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 4:55 pm
===The Quinn campaign is listening to Rich Miller. ==
If they were listening to me, they’d do a TV ad, not just an Interwebtube video.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 4:55 pm
And I mean no offense to Simon. He should’ve left that campaign after the primary and made himself a fortune.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 4:59 pm
You know it always amazes me to read these people’s comments.
Governor Quinn does something good… “ooh blah blah, I want something different.”
Here more jobs… “oh blah blah - this isn’t enough.”
I helped this group and stopped the Blago bleeding… “oh blah blah, it isn’t enough.”
Comment by The Shadow Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 5:02 pm
Bubs and One Man-
The folks in Chicago hired by this TV show will probably tell you their work is based on working on a variety of productions. Whether it is supplying set materials, doing lighting, etc., they have a job all year round because the state is doing a good job at getting a stream of TV shows and films shot in the state.
Comment by Montrose Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 5:07 pm
I agree with The Shadow. You might complain about those jobs, but I’ll bet a hundred dollars that the people who now have them don’t agree with you. It’s a good thing. It isn’t Nirvana. Nobody said it was.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 5:10 pm
I just hope this show is half as good as The Shield was.
Comment by The Captain Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 5:25 pm
Filmwork is good out of town money, like meetings and trade shows.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 5:32 pm
Beats SLC by 397 people in jobs!
Comment by D.P. Gumby Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 5:46 pm
Quinn is clearly an idiot for not running these ads on television. These types of ads by this guy should be his bread and butter. They actually make him look like he knows what he’s doing.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 5:49 pm
Quinn’s spending what money he has to knock down Brady. I don’t think that makes him an idiot; it might be easier to do that than buck up his own numbers. He just doesn’t have the money to go negative on Brady and positive on himself.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 5:53 pm
I think it makes him an idiot because it’s clear Brady is not being knocked down with his current strategy. I’m just sayin’. . . .
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 5:54 pm
This latest news from CD 17 is surprising, but maybe not so suprising given this strange election year. Schilling is a pizzeria owner with no experience, the type of candidate voters are leaning toward this year. Fasten your seat belts, friends, it’s going to be a wild campaign.
Comment by NW Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 5:56 pm
I like Phil, but his media is mediocre and his message is non existent…if he doesn’t change his campaign management, he’s going to lose…Lane Evans won in 1994 because his opponent spent $15T and Lane spent $270 T……A funded GOP candidate in this election has a better than 50% chance of winning….and Phil is NOT Lane Evans…and he knows it.
Comment by Louis Howe Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 6:30 pm
I’m new to this blog, but know the district pretty well from years back, and I have just one question for NW. What, exactly was Hare’s wonderful experience before being elected Representative that is that much better than owning a pizzeria? Do you have any idea of the skill it takes to run a successful small business?
Comment by jorgxmckie Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 7:12 pm
Is it good pizza? Because that’s not easy to make, I’ve found in my travels.
Happy Joe’s used to be considered good pizza in the QC, and that just doesn’t cut it.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 7:40 pm
Film work at that level is also union work; good pay and benefits. The deal with Chicago is that it is still a large center for advertising production, which pays the bills for the production community all year ’round, steady work. When a Hollywood movie or a TV series comes to Illinois, especially to Chicago, they draw upon the local production services and it takes a LOT of those :little people” to handle everything from flying camera helicopters to emptying honey wagons and all the jobs in between. The extra boost of money spent on one of these productions gives the year-round people a windfall that lets them splurge a little on upgrading their equipment, or adding staff, or otherwise improving their business. Those upgrades only tend to happen when the extra income above the steady year-round work comes in. So a production like this, we liken to a coral reef: home to a LOT of little fish, a whole ecosystem. You can be skeptical about the specific numbers in the “multiplier effect”, but the locals will tell you the film tax break pays for itself when productions come to stay. You should count up all the jobs that were lost when Law And Order finally shut down the “Mothership” program in NYC. Major jump in unemployment all over Manhattan and the surrounding film community. From one huge, long-running show.
Comment by Newsclown Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 7:40 pm
Wow, 400 jobs in a city that size! Nice work Gov. Quinn.
Comment by Macoupin Observer Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 8:29 pm
I give the ad a D.
I agree with both sides of the discussion on the nature of the jobs created. I agree that they are good paying jobs. I also recognize that there are multiple tv shows and films being attracted via the tax credits. But the average person is going to react like several of the commentators (and my off the cuff reaction) that we need manufacturing jobs not transient jobs.
I would have rather seen a series of clips or if not feasible the names of shows filmed in Illinois (not just Chicago) over the past couple of years. Why didn’t they mention Transformers 3 or some other blockbuster? Instead they focused on a tv show that hasn’t even hit the air by a producer whose other shows were popular but not mega-hits.
Additionally there was no emotional appeal. We heard from a super rich Hollywood director, who said thanks in a very dry manner for giving him money to shoot here. Why not hear from a caterer or a sound engineer saying how they made their house payments because Gov. Quinn attracted this new business to Illinois?
Comment by Objective Dem Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 8:31 pm
So, once more, Quinn is bragging about the success of a convict’s initiative. The EDGE credit which helped bring Ford and Navistar in was the brainchild of Ryan, although it was amended by Quinn to make it valuable to companies that are running losses now. The film credit is 100% the baby of Blago, who got it enacted and whose film office director, Brenda Sexton, was entirely responsible for getting it up and running to where it is today.
Comment by Justme Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 8:44 pm
Work is work and that’s a good thing, but does anyone ever fact check the numbers after a while.
It does not seem plausible that there will be 400 people working 2000 hrs per year on a single TV show.
One needs to be able to honestly balance what the tax breaks cost vs the real benefit to the taxpayers/workers.
There is a difference between 400 workers working a day vs 400 workers working for a year. Which is it?
Comment by plutocrat03 Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 8:45 pm
I have known Phil Hare for over 20 years. He is doing a fine job, No, he is not Lane Evans. He is better because he is more assertive. I also worked for Lane’s election since his first run for office. The 17th has been very well served for the last twenty some years. If it aint’t broke, don’t fix it!
Comment by Shakespeare Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 8:50 pm
For those who don’t know, Phil Hare was former Congressman Lane Evan’s district director for 20 years prior to running himself. Because of that excellent experience, he has been able to aggressively hit the ground running. He has succeeded in helping the regional economy is many ways, not the lest of which is critical funding for WIU-QC Riverfront Campus.
Comment by NW Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 9:50 pm
I personally like Phil Hare and am impressed with how active he is in all aspects of his district despite what a mess of gerrymandering it is, but he is much more liberal than that district so I guess this isn’t surprising that he’s in trouble this year… especially with Quinn at the top of the ticket dragging down Downstate Dems.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:46 pm
Nice ad, clean story and the film jobs are outside money being pumped into the Illinois economy.
Plutocrat03, for every $3 in credits the state hands out, there’s $10 being spent by the production company on Illinoisans and their companies. If the credits weren’t in place, neither would the production. It doesn’t cost the rest of the budget anything that wouldn’t have been there without it.
Just one question though, what role did Quinn have in this? Blago signed the expansions of the state’s film tax credit.
There’s no subjective judgment or kissing up to the film office to get the credits (like Missouri and some other states where there are limits on the amount of credits available). It’s an objective process as it could be. If you follow the rules, jump through the hoops and spend the money in Illinois, the state assigns you the credit.
Comment by Downstate Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:06 am
I would love to see Phil Hare go. I’ve been talking about this race for some time with a Dem friend of mine…he said he’d have to see it to believe a Hare would lose. I think this year is a great year to toss him out–they are incredibly frustrated in the 17th. Sterling/Rock Falls (the part of the district I live close to) has been trampled on the last couple years.
Comment by Liandro Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 1:48 am
Terrible ad. Quinn is touting tax credits to the film industry as a reason to vote for him? Seriously.
This ad would have been much more effective if those tax credits were used as the lead in for other such Quinn initiatives that are leading the state out of the recession. Unfortunately, there are no such credits, and no Quinn plan. This is something the voters know, and I actually think this ad draws attention to Quinn’s failures.
It better stay on the interwebs, it is laughable.
Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 7:40 am
Phil Hare’s YouTube video still riles people in the state. While his words (”I don’t care about the constitution”) were clearly ill chosen, it’s the dismissive attitude that is offensive.
He started life as a union chief. He’s clearly not part of the solution
Comment by Downstater Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 7:57 am
Sometimes a Congressperson is an $!#.
Sometimes they get the job by being a good friend of a beloved Congressman unable to remain in office due to health issues.
That is Hare.
He is a bad candidate. He is an even worse Congressman. Hare is disrespectful to those he doesn’t want to listen to. He has an open contempt for any veterans who disagree publically with him. He is a poor speaker. He is old.
He believes in big government even when it bankrupts our economy. He believes in raising taxes. He was probably the last Democrat in the US to use Obamacare as a legislative achievement in a campaign.
Hare represents everything that is wrong in Congress. A +3 D district isn’t enough for this lousy “406 out of 435″ Pol to remain in office.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 8:36 am
===Phil Hare’s YouTube video still riles people in the state.===
I was kind of amazed to see that the video has 420,491 views so far. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2iiirr5KI8
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 8:50 am
Cincinnatus, it’s not an ad. It’s a promo video.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 8:51 am
Cincy, you really think tax credits can “lead the state of recession.” Is that how the global economy works? You have a lot more faith in the power of state government than I do.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 8:56 am
Putting politics aside, when a Congressman ranked as ineffective as Hare is up for reelection, it shouldn’t matter what party they belong to or how their district was drawn to slant in their favor. Because no one as sloppy as Hare should be reelected. This district deserves better. Hare should have been opposed in the primary.
Hare’s free ride and honeymoon ended. He just isn’t any good.Sincerity and athenticity only works if you can deliver to DC your constituent’s message. The only message Hare delivered was for bigger government in a year when governments have failed to satisfy a majority of voters. Even in gerrymandered districts like this one.
Evans would have had a hard campaign and he is loved. Hare isn’t even close to Evans as a campaigner. I won’t shed a tear to see Hare go.
Schilling may serve only one term if this district is cut out when Illinois loses a seat next year.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 9:46 am
Hare treats people horribly and I don’t believe he’s good congressman. He’s an embarrassment. I still gon’t know how the challenger, Schilling, can live outside the district and run.
Comment by kitty herself Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 9:56 am
=== - wordslinger - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 7:40 pm: Is it good pizza? Because that’s not easy to make, I’ve found in my travels. Happy Joe’s used to be considered good pizza in the QC, and that just doesn’t cut it.===
I’ve never had Bobby Schilling’s pizza; he started that business after I moved away from the area. But in the QCs, at least on the Illinois side, you have two basic pizza camps. If you’re from Rock Island, it’s Harris Pizza. If you’re from East Moline/Silvis, it’s Frank’s Pizza. (Moline is a toss-up.) Both are excellent and have strong followings; you can usually tell where someone is from by asking “Harris or Frank’s?” Happy Joe’s is primarily known for its taco pizza (also very good) which its owner claims to have invented. Hope this helps on your next QC trip.
Comment by Former Titan Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 10:32 am
Hare is just one more pol on the list who got a gift from the too-early Illinois Primary—and is not the right candidate to win now. Ah, had we just known then what we know now.
Had some of Hare’s arrogance, abrasiveness, and cluelessness (which he demonstrates so well in the You Tube video and I have heard happens regularly) been better known he would probably have been primaried in a attempt to protect the seat for Dems, or as a way to nudge Hare to change his approach. I’d bet more than a few people are kicking themselves now for NOT giving Hare a primary challenge.
Comment by Responsa Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:19 pm