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[Bumped up for visibility and updated.]
* 9:37 pm - Pat Quinn’s up 39-38, according to the Trib. Yep. It’s definitely a trend…
A pre- Labor Day Tribune survey had Brady leading Quinn 37 percent to 32 percent. But in the last four weeks, Quinn’s abysmal job approval rating improved a little, and voters view him slightly more favorably than a month ago. And the governor is attracting more support from traditionally key sources of Democratic vote, particularly in Chicago and among African-American voters.
On the other hand, Brady’s numbers flipped and he is now liked and disliked by about the same percentage of voters, though more than a third say they still haven’t formed an opinion about the veteran state senator. Brady, who hails from a prominent Bloomington homebuilding family, continues to trounce Quinn downstate, though his lead in the collar counties has disappeared.
Democrats are coming home. A month ago, Quinn had only 56 percent of Dem voters. Now, it’s 71. He’s almost at 60 percent of Chicagoans, up from less than half of city voters a month ago.
Brady’s unfavorables have risen 10 points, from 19 to 29.
The poll found 39 percent of those surveyed think Brady would do a better job of restoring the state’s economy, compared to one-third who said Quinn would do the better job. […]
Quinn remains heavily out of favor with voters outside the Chicago area — a possible explanation for his recent spate of downstate visits to cut ribbons for public works projects. Almost half of downstate residents view the governor unfavorably, and Brady has the backing of 51 percent of the region’s voters compared to Quinn’s 27 percent.
Among independent voters, a group key to Republican chances for victory, Brady holds the advantage but has failed to distance himself significantly from Quinn. The poll found Brady favored by 37 percent of independent voters, compared to 33 percent a month ago. But Quinn also gained and is now backed by 29 percent of independents, up from 24 percent last month.
But the Trib says they’re basically tied in the collar counties. That’s hugely significant. Huge.
…Adding… I forgot to mention the other guys. Scott Lee Cohen is at 4 percent, Green Party nominee Rich Whitney is at 3 and Libertarian Lex Green is at 2.
…Adding more… The reason I say this looks like a trend is that we have now seen four polls released this week which put the race in single digits. Three of the four are public, one is private, except for subscribers. And three of those four polls have this as a one or two-point race.
Progress Illinois (a subscriber) let the cat out of the bag…
(W)hen [Scott Lee Cohen is] included in polling, the Capitol Fax calculated that Democratic numbers improve.
Look at the polls that have included Cohen’s name going back a month, when the Tribune had this as a five-point race. Every major pollster who included Cohen had this contest in single digits. Every one. Rasmussen, PPP (until now) and the rest have simply been churning out completely wrong numbers. This race has been close for a while. And now it’s probably closer.
…Adding still more… Limited crosstabs are here.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 3:37 am
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Previous Post: Bill Brady’s new TV ad: “Pat Quinn sold us out”
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tied in the collars and trending up. HUGE!
Comment by bored now Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 9:41 pm
Holy trendlines, Batman!
Comment by Don't Worry, Be Happy Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 9:41 pm
If they really are tied in the collars, that’s amazing, on a number of levels. I’d bet in Quinn’s pollster or political director’s win model they expect him to lose the collars by 10-20 points, so a tie there would be huge. Although if other recent polls are to be believed he’s likely underperforming his win model downstate.
Comment by The Captain Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 9:43 pm
Early this morning l made a comment on your website. I said “Take it to bank Pat Quinn is going win”,
Comment by Common sense Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 9:46 pm
let’s not get cocky. this is good news, and very helpful BUT there’s still a lot of work left to be done…
Comment by bored now Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 9:47 pm
I want to see more polls before declaring it a trend. But it is a very interesting data point.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 9:48 pm
CC, that’s three public polls this week in single digits, plus one private poll. Three of the four had it at one point, either way.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 9:55 pm
Tomorrow is the start of October, it’s going to be a long month for both sides
Comment by Publius Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 9:56 pm
Maybe its time for both candidates to start going negative in their ads.
Comment by Bill Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 9:58 pm
lol
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:00 pm
This is really odd…is the mayor race helping Quinn somehow? I don’t get it otherwise.
Comment by mp Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:04 pm
I wonder what moved the suburbs? Maybe Brady should have stayed away from that Glenn Beck rally?
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:07 pm
Coverage is less likely than advertising, natural partisan advantages, etc.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:10 pm
Rich said it all. Dems are coming home. It’s kinda like playing with your food, I guess (ala Addams family).
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:12 pm
At this exciting news, I would like to apologize for calling the Governor a jellyfish and his campaign pathetic.
All this time - they knew exactly what they were doing.
Comment by Siriusly Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:17 pm
lol. No, they haven’t.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:20 pm
Quinn leading by one on October 1st is like Lovie Smith going for it on 4th and one, when losing by 2, not getting the TD but somehow still winning the game. Backing into victory perhaps.
That said, I still think the voter turnout / enthusiasm gap will hamper all the Dems and Brady will win.
Comment by Siriusly Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:28 pm
rich- would you EVER had expected this??
Comment by mia Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:29 pm
As a conservative republican this is very bad news. Brady has coasted by saying very little and living off his perceived lead in the polls. Now he is going to have to start saying something again instead of “Nancy couldn’t be here tonight…I wont raise taxes…unfunded pensions”
Here is some unsolicited advice for Bill.
1) pick up the forensic audit. It is popular across the board, there is still enough time to get that message across and make Quinn Squirm on the issue.
2) Put an ad together that starts with the Prison Release program, moves to the Canoe Czar, raises for his staff, the Blago is always honest quote, labor union jobs guarantee, 33% tax increase, then use Quinn’s attack quote at the end “who is this guy?”
3) Trumpet the Edgar Endorsement from the Hilltops. Kidnap the man if you have to and make public appearances with him and Chris Christie on the same stage.
4) Realize we ain’t in Kansas anymore, and its time to get busy before this things gets away from you.
Comment by Moving to Oklahoma Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:43 pm
And what’s 3 supposed to do besides gets someone busted for kidnapping?
Free press, I guess. lol
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:47 pm
Anon 10:47
All publicity is good publicity.
Comment by Moving to Oklahoma Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:54 pm
So Cohen is taking some anti-Quinn vote from Brady? That’s surprising and funny.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:54 pm
Latinos for Brady saying “oh-oh” now.
Comment by ChuckT Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:54 pm
=All publicity is good publicity.=
As Kirk’s Campaign has shown us…time and time again.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:56 pm
ChuckT, too funny. I was just talking about them on the phone.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 10:59 pm
DGA and Quinn internal polls have it a poi nt race. Both are tracking again to confirm the trend. It is very likely that the strong negatives are driving base voters back to their party of origin. This is very bad news for Brady. It is likely that DGA and Quinn trackers will come back with Quinn leading.
Comment by CookDem Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 11:07 pm
sorry
one point race
Comment by CookDem Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 11:07 pm
I think that these results are prompting a lot of trackers, especially in the collars.
Comment by Obamarama Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 11:10 pm
-All this time - they knew exactly what they were doing. -
They got no clue what the hell they are doing over there. Surrounding yourself with “yes men” while telling well respected pollsters and media consultants how to do their job didn’t move these numbers.
This is Dem voters realizing that Shady Bill Brady has no plan, and they don’t want someone coming in who is going to dump more people in the streets by cutting social services or sending their kids to overcrowding classrooms. Quinn needs to spend the next month saying how he identifies with the struggles of the state’s people every single day, because he has made the tough choices, has cut the budget and how he is the one who with a plan (even if he doesn’t). And keep hitting Brady on the taxes…
Problem is the Brady AFSCME ad hasn’t had any time to sink in. You also know he has got another one about early prisoner release in the bank. The early prisoner release attack paid fat dividends for Hynes, even if it didn’t work out in the end.
Barack coming in to do ads for Quinn would only help bring Dem voters back home.
Comment by The Enforcer Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 11:10 pm
The impact of Daley retiring is having the exact opposite impact from the knee jerk, simplistic analysis old media types like Hinz rehashed. Truth is the scramble has energized Dems in and around Chicago.
Plus it was just a matter of time until people started seeing through the charade that Brady has any kind of leadership potential.
Comment by just sayin' Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 11:41 pm
thrilling that the numbers are moving. remembering the
primary, where it looked bad for so long for Quinn. will be
happy if he wins, but not loving the way it goes down. it’s
like it will vindicate his crazed approach to the craft of
political campaigns. he’s like the kid who does not read the
required reading til the test and then gets by after an all nighter.
feels good if you win, but the process requires too many
cups of coffee.
Comment by Amalia Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 12:07 am
I have nothing to back up this sentiment, but I want to thank Christine O’Donnell for reminding uninspired Dems and Dem leaning independents what the Republican party and their fantasy based ideology has become.
Comment by MikeMacD Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 12:08 am
People are waking up. About time.
Comment by Chubs Mahoney Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 12:20 am
Yesterday I predicted people would hold their nose and vote for Quinn when it comes down to it. But I don’t pretend to be psychic; just practical.
It really boils down to Quinn being imperfect but at least not jiving that we don’t need a tax increase to get out of this hole. I don;t know a dem since Mondale that had the stones to say that *before* an election.
Brady looks pretty but keeps waffling; he claims he has a recovery plan, but that he won’t share it or explain how he can solve that deficit with 10 percent cuts. You ask him point blank if those cuts will go to education and instead of saying yes, everybody shares the pain, he fobs it off on the local property tax boards and the Board of Ed to solve. Or he suggests stuff that is unconstitutional and could never pass a legislature. He is IN that legislature; he can’t pretend to be dumb about how it works.
It looks more and more like what it is: a bluff, a white lie. He’s either going to raise some taxes after he’s elected, or he’s going to make cuts so odious and draconian, it might lead to another impeachment vote, and it won’t be enough. That, and the stuff about his hostility to labor issues is going to scare off a lot of people in this stumbling economy. You want me to vote against my personal interest for a guy that wants to reduce my minimum wage take-home and my constitutionally and contractually promised pension I spent my life building? And lower my other benefits like health? Should I vote to poke my own eye out?
Quinn may be bumbling and disorganized, but his heart’s in the right place and his cards are and have been more or less on the table, though he can’t bluff for beans about making hard cuts. Brady is an empty suit, trying to have it both ways that he has budget answers but can’t give them away. He doesn’t have an answer except to try to throw some favors to his corporate buddies. And his own business track record kind of negates his claims that it gives him management cred to run a major state.
If there was a viable third-party candidate, this would be the year I went for him or her. But Whitney is if anything more abstracted and out of touch than Quinn on his worst day, and I have no faith that a guy that campaigns that badly can organize a charity carwash, much less a state. Cohen was never a factor except as a spoiler for one of the two majors, and it starts to look like it’s spoiling Brady more than Quinn.
So Congrats Pat; by default you’re the tallest midget in the Freak Show, guess you win the vote. Do us a favor, take this “mandate” and beat the legislature over the head with it while victory is still fresh. Make peace with Mike and pass some kind of term-limited tax raise/rebalancing in concert with a spending freeze. Do what Edgar got credit for, which is to spend 4 years repairing a deficit budget and trimming surgically, and showing he was disciplined.
Comment by Gregor Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 12:28 am
I just watched the Chicago Tribune debate. Pat Quinn came off as a statesman. Bill Brady looked and sounded defeated - especially by the end. When asked for his most significant accomplishment in 17 years as a legislator, he said he had “many,” then mentioned Heartland Community College, followed by a long pause. I almost felt bad for him. He’s revealed himself as an empty vessel. Pat Quinn is imperfect, but he’s an accomplished leader.
Comment by Chubs Mahoney Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 2:03 am
Is this the same Tribune that just a few weeks ago said “Brady holds on to slim lead” and then a week later Rasmussen comes out with a 13 point lead. Gee there’s news you can trust!
Comment by Spin Stops Where? Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 7:39 am
Received my first direct mail piece from SL Cohen yesterday and (gag) it looked respectable. I’m a registered Republican. Had to throughly scrub and shower after I handled the piece.
Comment by washedmyhands Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 8:44 am
I guess the one thing I am not getting is the difference between the Trib and Time on SLC 4% vs 14%
Comment by OneMan Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 8:59 am
Maybe it was in the Trib story, but I missed it: are we talking about likely voters here, or registered voters? I’m trying to figure out if this is more about actual conversion, among the previously (small) estimated pool of likely voters. Or is this more and more Democrats in Chicago are “waking up” and indicating they’ll vote after all? If this is polling generic, registered voters, this poll may not be so good for Quinn, due to turnout, but I can’t imagine the Trib isn’t screening for likely voters this close to an election.
National generic polls by respected outlets like Pew still have _Democratic_ candidates leading, narrowly … Democrats are just getting killed, in the likely voter models.
Are more people changing their minds about Quinn, or are more Quinn supporters changing their minds about voting? If the latter, I am wondering if this Daley announcement isn’t getting people talking about politics and rekindling interest in voting, at least a bit. Maybe some people out there are gearing up to vote in November, just (they think) to keep Rahm out of the mayor’s race …
Comment by ZC Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 9:16 am
Alternatively (Rich’s theory) it’s always been about polling the third party candidates, and what they do to the Brady-Quinn dynamic. Wow.
Comment by ZC Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 9:33 am
People are finally starting to pay attention. I would look for this trend to continue, especially, since big Bill seems to think antagonizing unions will get him more votes.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 9:42 am
Hi,
On this poll is there somewhere I can get data on the poll method like how many were polled and what percentage of dem/ind/rep were polled I cannot find this anywhere.
Comment by DoubleDown Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 9:56 am
ahh sorry i did read 600 were polled
Comment by DoubleDown Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 9:57 am
>Democrats are coming home. A month ago, Quinn had only 56 percent of Dem voters. Now, it’s 71. He’s almost at 60 percent of Chicagoans, up from less than half of city voters a month ago.
What exactly is motivating them all of a sudden? Fear of being told what they can’t do in the bedroom? Is that really what outweighs everything else in their lives? I mean they might as chop off their legs now since they’re gonna shoot themselves in the foot anyway when they go to vote.
Chubs Mahoney - they’re NOT waking up, they’re falling asleep again as the ship continues to speed toward the jagged rocky shore while continuing to deny there’s no need to change course. Rush Limbaugh has been saying the campaign is far from over and not to let up for anything.
Comment by Segatari Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 10:11 am
Question: How could Brady be losing Chicago badly, losing Suburban Cook and losing the Collars yet still be several points ahead among IND? That seems amazingly odd, unless the IND sample was disproportionately small.
Comment by Anon Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 10:13 am
marketsharecorp.com did the poll, they had the primary exit poll data on the web site but not this one. I am just interested on how he did this poll
Comment by DoubleDown Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 10:15 am
These numbers are for real and there will be “game changer” numbers that come out over the weekend showing Quinn with a lead. There are three dynamics at play here:
NUMBER 1
Democrats are coming home which they were most likely going to do no matter what. It is just happening later in the campaign than it should.
NUMBER 2
Third party candidates have lowered the threshold for winning to a level where Quinn’s base vote of 35% (which is where he has polled for months now) is getting remarkably close to a win number.
NUMBER 3
President Obama’s approval rating coupled with the high Democratic performance of the state will mean that undecided voters break remarkably well for the incumbent which is a higly unusual electoral dynamic. The President is cutting ads for the Governor right now. That could be enough to pull it out for Quinn. Quinn wins with 44% of the vote. You heard it here first.
Comment by CookDem Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 10:17 am
Once the “Dozens Of Governor Quinn’s Appointees Linked To His Campaign Donations” story becomes a TV add watch Quinn’s numbers tank. Will Quinn join Blago and make it 3 governors in a row?
Comment by KnuckleHead Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 10:39 am
What the Chicago media forgets is there is a place outside of Chicago called ILLINOIS!
Remember the primary? Chicago media blew it discounted Brady didn’t even have a camera or reporter within a hundred miles of him.
Comment by KnuckleHead Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 10:45 am
KnuckleHead, first you have to convince people that Quinn is a criminal. That’s gonna be tough.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 10:46 am
I assume the Trib also polled the Senate race and that we will probably get those results tomorrow. If they show Quinn up by 1%, they probably show Alexi up by at least 4%.
Comment by 60611 Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 10:53 am
Quinn is going to win.
Illinois is too Blue for any other result.
What moderate is going to vote for someone who wants a raped woman to carry the baby to term?
What moderate will vote for someone who wants to shoot deer with an AK-47 out of the driver’s side window of his Porsche?
Brady is losing votes to a jewish pawnbroker who held a knife to a hooker’s throat. ‘nough said.
Comment by I don't want to live in Teabagistan Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 11:29 am
oops. Sorry for repeating some of what I said. Had a hiccup with my computer so I thought the first message didn’t post.
Comment by I don't want to live in Teabagistan Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 11:31 am
>I don’t want to live in Teabagistan
I certainly don’t want to live where you do…
>What moderate is going to vote for someone who wants a raped woman to carry the baby to term?
>What moderate will vote for someone who wants to shoot deer with an AK-47 out of the driver’s side window of his Porsche?
You made these up.
Comment by Segatari Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 11:35 am
No, he didn’t.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 11:52 am
Segatari,
Actually, Brady’s position on abortion is pretty well-known.
My second comment is a mash-up, but Brady does oppose a ban on assault weapons (e.g., AK-47), and he does drive a Porsche.
A little exaggerated? Maybe. Made up? Nope!
Look, George Bush lost here to John Kerry. Think about that for a moment. I know Rich Miller compared this to Carter/Reagan, but I think Bush/Kerry is more like it: Whatever may happen in the rest of the country, Illinois will go Blue.
Comment by I don't want to live in Teabagistan Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 11:58 am
Rich,
Your kidding right? After Blago you think folks in Illinois want to hear about another Gov giving out appointments for contributions? The appearance of inpropriety will be enough.
I gots the feeling that this is the tip of the iceberg and we will see much more. The real folks out on the street are still fuming over the pay raises for staff.
Comment by KnuckleHead Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 11:59 am
He’s not thought of as a crook, so that’s a tough case to make. Very tough. You have to spend too much money to convince people he’s a crook before you can pound him with it.
And it’s “you’re,” not “your.” A contraction of “you are.”
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 12:02 pm
Is it possible that this is a situation where people starting to step off of the fence where they have been waiting for one of the candidates to show a plan, and they are saying we know what we got now and even though it isn’t what we prefer it is better than an unknown. Add to that the focus Quinn has made on jobs recently and the fact that Brady has made comments that the burden of education should fall back on the local governments which means higher taxes is moving folks away from him.
Back in the day when education funding reform was initially being pushed the collar counties where notorious for not wanting an income tax increase to fund schools because they were doing great with local taxes funding very good schools and they did not want to be paying for Chicago schools or downstate schools. The Republican stronghold that was the collar counties were very successful at beating back any funding reform that came up. I don’t know that in these economic times that they are still enjoying the revenues they enjoyed back then with all the growth they were experiencing. Also with Illinois being one of the top states for foreclosures I don’t think you want to count on property taxes or increases in them to be your revenue source. It’s the whole cigarette tax funds everything but you can’t smoke anywhere scenerio all over again.
I would think that Brady needs to present his plan for getting the State out of the deficit hole and be specific if he hopes to gain this ground back.
Comment by Irish Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 12:08 pm
===needs to present his plan===
That would be the last thing he should do. A better outline, perhaps, but you start talking real, live cuts, you’re gonna lose.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 12:13 pm
Irish,
“I would think that Brady needs to present his plan for getting the State out of the deficit hole and be specific if he hopes to gain this ground back.”
But you just highlighted Brady’s problem: he can’t offer a plan because he has no idea how he is going to do what he has promised to do if elected, and people are starting to realize it.
When people challenged his 10% across-the-board-cut, his response was to recharacterize it as a dime-for-every-dollar.
To quote Samuel L. Jackson in “Jackie Brown”: my -ss may be dumb, but I’m no dumb-ss.
Comment by I don't want to live in Teabagistan Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 12:14 pm
Bill Brady the Tea Party candidate running on the republican ticket is the most anti worker candidate that has ever run for Governor in Illinois.
Brady believes teachers should forego pay raises, that people making the minimum wage are being paid too much and that women don’t deserve equal pay when doing the same job as a man.
The more the voters in Illinois find out about Brady the less likely they are to vote for him.
Comment by (618) Democrat Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 1:31 pm
Completely easy. The Tea Party is very popular, only with those that it is very popular with. Everyone else, moderate Republicans included, are worried about the crazies.
The Tea Party has become the Republican Party in the minds of moderates and Dems. So, I think in states like Illinois, with a higher number of progressives, there is going to be late movement to the Dems.
Nov. 2 could look a lot different than conventional wisdom would indicate.
Comment by will o the wisp Friday, Oct 1, 10 @ 9:11 pm