Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Question of the day
Next Post: New Poll: Quinn up by six?
Posted in:
* Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson looks like this year’s version of Carol Moseley-Braun. No, not the CM-B who became the first black female US Senator in 1992. I mean the incumbent who spent six years doing basically nothing, not coming home, walling herself off from the media and compiling a less than mediocre legislative record.
Case in point, the Sun-Times just endorsed Halvorson’s conservative Republican opponent, despite the fact that it disagrees with Adam Kinzinger on just about every policy issue…
When the choice is between a mediocre first-term U.S. representative who tends to vote your way and a young upstart of great promise who would just as likely vote the other way, whom do you support?
We’re going with the kid.
Halvorson was a good state legislator who understood how to win tough campaigns. She was out and about in her district and generally kept in touch. It was tough for her to watch her voting record after she became the Senate Majority Leader, but she was such a strong campaigner/legislator that she was wooed hard by the DC Dems. Apparently, she forgot every lesson she ever learned in Springfield.
…Adding… The Halvorson campaign just called with several instances where she was available to constituents. But the fact remains that the people I’ve talked to in her district who are in this business say she just hasn’t been nearly visible enough.
* In other congressional campaign news, the National Association of Realtors is spending $300,000 on television ads supporting Democratic incumbent Bill Foster. Watch the ad…
* FiveThirtyEight, by the way, has downgraded Republican chances of taking this seat and now has it as an even chance of a takeover. Nate Silver had categorized this as a “Lean Takeover” seat.
The NRCC has launched a TV ad blitz targeting 45 districts this week, marking the first time Republicans have been on the air in as many districts as they’ll need to take back control of the House. Republicans are spending big on the effort, dishing out $4.4M on the ad buys this week.
The blitz is significant because, like last week, Republicans are spending much more on the airwaves than Democrats. The ads are part of the GOP’s strategy of going on the attack early in an attempt to lock up seats. The DCCC, on the other hand, is reserving the bulk of its resources for the final couple of weeks before Election Day.
The ads - 25 of which are brand new — come a week after the NRCC went up in 30 districts. The NRCC has planned to spend $35M on TV in 55 districts so far.
The NRCC is targeting 17 Democrats with ad buys of $100K or more.
The NRCC is apparently running ads in 10 (Kirk open seat), 11 (Halvorson) and 14 (Foster).
* In other down-ballot news, the Tribune, as expected, endorsed Forrest Claypool. They laid it on thick…
No task for Cook County voters is more important than denying the Democratic machine control of the assessor’s office whose calculations of real estate values drive your property tax bills. Its candidate, Joe Berrios — who sits on the county’s tax appeals board, moonlights as a lobbyist and heads the County Democratic Party — is a one-man conflict of interests. Most egregiously, he lobbies Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton in Springfield — then returns to Chicago to handle their law firms’ tax appeals on behalf of big commercial clients.
There’s more. Can’t wait for the scourge of legalized video gambling to arrive at restaurants and bars near you? Thank lobbyist Berrios and his compliant cronies in Springfield. And did we mention that Berrios supported his pal Todd Stroger’s notorious hike in the sales tax? Stroger wound up with a 1-percentage-point tax increase; Berrios was happy with Stroger’s initial proposal for a 2-point gouge.
Carol Marin looked at the race as well…
Berrios’ supporters have a warning for the renegades.
“Everyone will be held accountable,” 1st Ward Committeeman Jesse Ruben Juarez told me. “They don’t realize how many Latinos they have in their areas.”
In truth, neither race nor ethnicity nor controversial social issues are involved in this contest. It’s a simple matter of reform, and political strategist Kitty Kurth says it boils down to this:
“If Berrios is able to win, the Machine still exists.”
And if he loses?
There will be an eye-popping chink in the little that’s left of its armor.
* Roundup…
* McQueary: Miller vs. Topinka exposes teacher union hypocrisy
* Getting to the bottom of Foster’s ‘toxic asset’ claims about Hultgren
* 9th Congressional District hopefuls spar on jobs, economy
* Sun-Times: Roskam, Davis for Congress
* RR Star: Manufacturing focus makes Manzullo best choice in 16th
* Lt. gov. candidates say they’re ready to lead
* Krug: Endorsements get conversation started
* Northwest Herald: Secretary of State: Jesse White
* Cook Co. assessor candidates spar over impact of property tax change
* Tribune: Preckwinkle’s moment
* 29 Days Left
* Cepeda: Tuesday: Last day to register to vote
* Registering to vote is simpler than it seems
* Journal-Courier: Campaigns should adjust to early voting
* Looking at the art behind those political ads, mailers
* Should judges accept campaign money? Rival candidates disagree
* Durbin Hits the Road for Democrats
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:13 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Question of the day
Next Post: New Poll: Quinn up by six?
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
Berrios ought to crazy-glue Jesse Juarez’ mouth shut. Juarez is a political buffoon who can do little more than cause Berrios a lot of grief.
Comment by fedup dem Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:22 pm
there’s a big difference between springfield and dc politics. Every time I’ve seen halvorson interviewed on tv I’ve come off thinking this is a woman who is way out of her league. Kinzinger doesn’t wow me either and my guess is if you asked him a question that made him go off nrcc talking points he struggle.
Foster on the other hand seems like the kind of guy who would be a really successful statewide politician running for senate in 6 years if kirk wins or governor if brady wins.
Comment by shore Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:45 pm
Glad all these folks are so glad to spend their money on TV for Foster, because it seems like he does not have much of a ground game. Last time lots of outside help came in for special, not sure if we are going to see it this time.
Comment by OneMan Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:46 pm
Shore—
No, he wouldn’t. He makes Andy McKenna look like he has a personality.
Comment by OneMan Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:58 pm
Somebody might want to tell Juarez that threatening Democratic officials to back Berrios might not be the smartest way to win friends and influence people. Not to mention that nobody has exactly held up Berrios as the Latino standard bearer.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:06 pm
@ fedup dem - “Berrios ought to crazy-glue Jesse Juarez’ mouth shut…”
And when he’s finished, Berrios should hand the glue to Madigan so he can receive the same treatment.
Comment by Cynic Al Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:08 pm
Even though Halverson is a very weak candidate and probably any other Democrat would be better than her, I don’t see Kinzinger beating her. The ads she has where the “regular folks” call on young Kinzinger to stop exporting jobs and stop messing with their SS I think will resonate very well. I also believe that Chicago and especially the African American voters are well enough informed that they know they have to send President Obama any help they can, even if it is very weak, for him to continue his plan. These items I think tip the scales to Halverson in the end.
Comment by Irish Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:17 pm
Rich, regarding the Sun-Times action in the 11th District race, it brings to mind the old City News Bureau adage, “If your mother says she loves you, check it out.” There seems to be something odd about that action, and if this town had any decent investigative journalists left we would find out about it soon enough. To castigate Halvorson after one term seems fishy to me. What has she done wrong… not pass a slew of legislation personaqlly? No one in the US House has been able to do that, since the Republicans in the Senate have filibustered practially everything the House has passed except the time of day. Richt now there are several hundred House-passed bills languishing in the Senate. Should voters in the 11th District reward the obstructionist Senate Republicans by electing an obstructionist wannabe like Kinzinger to this House seat? I think not.
Comment by fedup dem Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:57 pm
Well that is a bit tough since the district does not include Chicago or the City of Chicago…
The 11th Congressional District of Illinois includes the towns of Joliet, Kankakee, LaSalle, Ottawa and Streator, and all or parts of Will, Kankakee, Grundy, LaSalle, Bureau, Woodford and McLean counties
Comment by OneMan Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:00 pm
While those commercials might be good, Irish, Debbie isn’t in Chicago.
Her terribly shaped district goes from Joliet to Bloomington. Fed up Tea Partiers vote. College kids don’t. Fact.
Comment by Uh Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:01 pm
I don’t know about running statewide, but Foster fits his district,which had been bedrock GOP since Lincoln.
I grew up in the heart of the district; the people stayed the same, the GOP moved. Think Eisenhower and Ford. Foster strikes me as a Geneva banker or doctor. He certainly would have been a Scandanavian Republican back in the day.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:01 pm
I find it deeply ironic that Forrest Claypool is running for an office that is good for only two things: (1) raising a large war chest ( ex. Tully, Hynes, Houlihan) and (2) setting yourself up in the tax appeals business (Tully & Hynes - and probably Houlihan). If you are not going to do either or both of those two things, what really is the practical reason for wanting to be Assessor? Moreover, by running for Assessor in this way, Claypool has prevented himself from running for Mayor. Even if Claypool wins (and I think he will lose a close one), it is a pyrric victory.
Comment by paddyrollingstone Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:12 pm
One look at Roskam’s opponents yard signs should be enough to drive any undecided voter to Roskam.
Comment by Cincinnatus Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:14 pm
I’ll say it again Rich about Bill Foster…he’s laying it on thick in that add. Nothing independent about a guy in lock step with his party in washington, and nothing about his actual voting record in any of his adds that flood my mailbox. No, if you’re just a mope who gets their pre-election information from 30 second adds, then he looks like a great guy…too bad its not real, because his real record if fully realized will cost our family quite a bit in new taxes and programs he voted for.
Pathetic.
Comment by Captain Illini Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:24 pm
CI, that’s not his ad.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:31 pm
Cincinnatus: given the help that roskam is providing to other candidates (read: kinzinger), i assume that he doesn’t have much in the way of opposition. if he did, he’d be devoting those resources to his own district, not a neighboring one. having said that, this is a republican to watch, for he’s definitely incorporated the lessons of the conservative movement into what he does…
Comment by bored now Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:43 pm
Kinzinger sign’s outnumber Halverson signs 4 to 1.
South of I-80 you see Kinzinger signs in subdivisions not one Halverson sign in a subdivision, only on main roads like rt 52. Once out of Joliet you get alot of farm land until you get to Kankakee. In Peotone and Bourbonnais all you see is Kinzinger signs.
In the last couple years I would send a email telling Ms Halverson my views on upcoming votes and never ever got a phone call or a email reply.
Comment by DoubleDown Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:56 pm
bored now,
Roskam should win by at least 25% so he is in a fairly safe election. I agree that Peter is at the forefront of the conservative movement, he just doesn’t appear so to the casual observer. I wish he had listened to advice and run for Senate instead of his friend Kirk. Peter’s conservative record on social issues would not have mattered in this cycle, and he would have trounced Alexi because he is a much more disciplined candidate than Alexi, Kirk, Brady or Quinn.
If Republicans take the House, expect to see much more of Peter.
Comment by Cincinnatus Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:00 pm
Rich: Yes, but. My point, though obscure and off the point, it that the bulk of his adds either produced by his team or endorsements from others never seem to elevate his real work in Washington these past couple years…they either skip that part or try to excoriate his opponent, which of course is fair game in love and politics.
The short answer…yeah, you’re right, not his add…point goes to Miller…
Comment by Captain Illini Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:23 pm
Re Halvorson — A lot of people thought that in the Illinois Senate, she failed to stand up to a lot of the Emil stuff. That she would fail to show leadership in the House is no shock at all.
And with regard to Cincy’s comment about Roskam: Roskam is and always has been a far right winger. Yes, it is obvious to anybody remotely familar with him. If he was up against Alexi, Alexi would be up by 20. Kirk has a chance only because some people view him as a moderate.
Comment by Skeeter Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 5:01 pm
here in Bloomington/Normal I see signs for Halvorson as well as Kinzinger–about 50-50–and this is Adams’s hometown area. Yet, I haven’t heard that much enthusiasm for him. A colleague calls him an “Aaron Schock wannabe.”
He will probably carry this area (it is soo Republican) but I think Debbie will pick up some votes. The heavily populated areas of the northern part of the district will decinde this election.
Comment by Nearly Normal Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 6:28 pm
Err, I meant “decide this election.”
Comment by Nearly Normal Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 6:29 pm
Foster does represent his district well - hard working and smart - rare for politician. Maybe his appeal is that he is not quite a politician but still more like an average hard working person with a mild personality. He will be a good fit for a statewide office. Too bad that he is not running for Senate or Governor this time.
Comment by from14th Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 7:06 pm
Soon into her first term, most of debbie halvorson’s long-time friends and supporters were run off by the young know-it-alls from the DNCC - and halvorson acquiesced. If you take a look at those associated with her campaign, you’ll be struck by the absence of seasoned, loyal, and long-time local supporters. It seems as though Halvorson made the mistake that a lot of new congress-critters make, which is tginking that the local organization can be replaced with DNCC money and staff. Ask the DNCC kids what the campaign’s plans are for Crete, and watch their eyes dart quickly around as they stam-stam-stammer a meaningless answer. It’s too bad. Debbie has all the makings of a good congress-critter, if only she remembered who she is and where she’s come from.
Comment by Mares eat oats Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 8:27 pm
Debbie Halvorson listened to the wrong advice when she decided to hide from young Kinzinger when he asked her to debate the health care issue. It sent a terrible message out to her constituency. Debbie is forever linked in Illinois voter’s minds with Emil Jones and Rod Blagojevich back when she served in the Illinois state senate. She voted whichever way that Emil and Rod told her to vote. Her political career has always come before her constituency’s best interests. She is a hard worker but is way too much of an opportunist. Kinzinger seems to be far more sincere than Debbie. He comes across as willing to “do the right thing” no matter who or what his Party or anyone else else tells him to do. Here is hoping that I and others are not being duped by him. An Illinois elected official in Washington with a sense of honor and no sense of entitlement? That is a pretty radical concept for most of us Illinois voters.
Comment by Cool Hand Luke Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 8:29 pm
I grew up with Debbie. I went to school with her. I’d trust her on anything. But she is a sincere liberal in the best sense of the word. This district isn’t San Francisco. She has her GOP opponents to thank for labeling themselves as Boss Hogg cartoonish “moguls” and the Wall Street meltdown in August 2008 for her election.
That’t it.
This year she is facing the reality of being a by the book liberal in a red congressional district after supporting the spending of everyone’s money, their children’s money and mortgaging their grandkid’s future in a sincere effort to follow the liberal line of what it takes to stimulate an economy, provide health care, save the environment and do good. But instead of a Wall Street Meltdown, she is now in the middle of a Big Government Meltdown. Instead of her opponent being a cartoonish capitalist, she is the cartoonish liberal Washington DC Democrat with the target on her back.
Big deal all around, really. Debbie did what the rest of us didn’t do - be someone in Washington. I’m proud of her and don’t care what happens in November. She did what I didn’t think she could do. Good for her!
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 8:53 pm
The thing that kills Halvorson is her gutless decision NOT to talk to the people in her district about health care reform.
Hiding in a hole from your constituents never shows political courage or leadership.
Comment by Captain America Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 8:55 pm
@CaptainAmerica - Cite your source. I can’t be a Kinzinger release.
Comment by Apple Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 9:29 pm
I live in the farthest south area of Debbie’s district and have the only Halvorson yard sign in town. Kinzinger prolly has 25 signs up in LeRoy. People here have a visceral reaction when you talk about her here and it comes down to the health care vote.
Comment by Rayne of terror Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:08 pm
C, well said regarding Roskam, and right on the money.
Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 11:00 pm
I live in the 11th, and if I have noticed one changed from Weller to Halvorson, it’s constituent service and contact. Halvorson is back in the district almost every weekend, Weller was always flying to Central America, we never saw the guy. Halvorson has also hired staff throughout the District, Weller had an office in Joliet and we rarely saw anyone.
I know some people were ticked off last summer when Halvorson decided she didn’t want to hold a town hall and have it turned into a free-for-all yell fest. At first I thought she should hold them anyway, but to what end? Instead, she went around the district and met with smaller groups to discuss specific issues (including health care). Those small group sessions have received little attention because they did not have crowds of angry screamers, but I attended several in my community, and I know they have been held throughout the district almost since Halvorson was sworn in. She also shows up at just about every Dem event in the District and talks to everyone about whatever issue is on their mind.
I think the Sun Times endorsement reads more like a giddy first love note than a thoughtful examination of what would be best for the district. Kinzinger might be a dreamboat, but the Sun Times seems to have little more to back up their endorsement.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 11:12 pm
I own a business in Joliet and live in Peotone. Talking with my customers everyday and people in Will County are mad. Mad at Halvorsen, AJ Wilhelmi
and Tom Cross. It sucks when good people are out of work for over 2 years
Comment by DoubleDown Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 11:48 pm
As I’ve said before, Hultgren is going to run up the numbers in the western end of the 14th far more then Oberweiss did. I can’t say anything about the eastern end, because the farthest I go in an average week is out to Dekalk.
Does Foster have the goodwill in the burbs to make up for the smacking he’s going to take (and very much deserves) out here? I doubt it right now, Hultgren is a very solid candidate.
Comment by Liandro Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 11:55 pm
Debbie will be fine
Let’s face it the era of the media influencing voters has come to an end……if your voting record tracks with the editorial page you are endorsed…..now the Sun Times drops the ball.
Same with Tribune and Marin
We are guessing Steve Neal is rolling over
The voters are not that stupid folks
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Oct 5, 10 @ 8:21 am