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* Bill Brady has three new TV ads that will begin running this evening. The first one is a tough hit on Pat Quinn’s early release program. Rate it…
* This is a related, 15-second spot featuring Brady speaking to the camera about protecting personal safety…
* And the third is another ad featuring Brady’s daughter Katie…
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 10:57 am
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The early release spot is extremely powerful. When you have facts like that, you can just knock it out of the park.
In this anything-goes media environment, I cringe when anyone employs family in political spots. Once you make yourself a “public figure,” you open yourself up to abuse.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:05 am
I think overall they are very good commercials. I especially like the daughter commercial. Will get younger woman to take a softer look at him other then the version Quinn tried to portray.
Comment by Antiochian Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:05 am
I hate the daughter commercial, mostly because I hate all family commercials.
Is anyone going to be moved by the fact that Brady is supported by his daughter?
Comment by dave Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:13 am
The living room is a weird setting for his to-camera ad. Not sure why, just weird.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:16 am
Yes, please no more family commercials. I think Brady used them early on or in the primary, and Alexi used his mom in the primary. Unless you’re a monster, I’m going to assume your family thinks well of you to hold public office.
Comment by Davey Boy Smithe Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:20 am
Rich - I think you have them ranked in order of effectiveness. The first one is going to be really tough for Quinn. The second one isn’t bad, but that first one is a killer.
Comment by Anon 7 Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:27 am
Liked all three. The first two hit a major issue against Quinn that is not going away. I really liked the third. I think people are ready for a positive Ad, even if it is his daughter.
Comment by downstate hack Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:30 am
10 for the 1st ad. 5 and 2 for the other two ads. Thing is, the electorate heard all this back in January. Have they forgotten? If so, Brady scores with this ad. If not, it would matter much.
Comment by Niles Township Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:30 am
Over all I give the early release 30 an A. That should be run till people are tired of hearing it.
The 15 second version, seems a little contrived. The background looks like he is on a really cheap movie set. As Rich always says, “watch it with the sound off.” When I did that the :15 didn’t work too well and the Daughter spot turns into a working nurse endorsing Brady.
In summary, stick with the prison release :30.
Comment by Living in Oklahoma Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:32 am
The first ad is 9.5/10. Hard-hitting and on-point. The second is weaker, perhaps because it’s shorter, but I also hate the line about personal security being the Governor’s top priority. Lastly, the daughter ad, as others have mentioned, is less effective because of course his daughter loves him. I also hate the line about trusting people, not government. What exactly is government if not people?
I think Brady risks diluting a strong message by running so much traffic with these different ads. I think he needs to keep it focused, but then I don’t have access to his polling to know who he’s trying to reach with these.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:33 am
First ad is VERY powerful. I actually think the daughter ad is better than the second ad. The second ad just did nothing for me.
While I understand why people do not like the family member ads, I think the daughter ad effectively softens Brady.
Not sure any of these will have any effect.
Comment by Richard Afflis Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:34 am
Niles,
Your post struck a chord, and now I know why.
The 3rd ad is like they are re-introducing Bill Brady. After that primary and the 4 years he spent campaigning BEFORE the primary AND the free and paid media before the Daley Decision 2010, if Jerry and Co. feel the need to do an “intro” piece (and that is what his daughter is doing, she is not reinforcing known ideas or ‘closing arguements’) they must feel Bill is still TOO unknown and the numbers are way soft.
That ad tells me more than introducing Bill Brady.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:37 am
I like the first 2. I’ve been seeing that combination used by Brady quite a bit, with a 30 second attack near the beginning of a show, with a shorter part with him speaking either later in that commercial break or later in the show. Very effective.
Comment by Matt Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:41 am
All three have an important role.
Early release is a killer issue (NPI) and is an area where Brady can actually make Quinn more unpopular.
The other two fill a role in that all the recent numbers have shown that independents are not yet comfortable with the relatively unknown Brady. These voters need to learn more about him.
When a candidate looks into the camera and speaks, voters can get a better personal feel for him/her. With some candidates it helps, with others it hurts. Brady comes across well on camera. They should do more with Brady on camera.
The daughter ad may be contrived, but it does help voters know more about Brady. Since many are still not familiar with him, it is soft and positive and it is informative–he has a daughter who is a very nice young lady who went into a very noble profession. It ain’t gonna win the race for him, but it helps voters get to know Brady.
Rating the three in order–8.5; 7; 6
Comment by Adam Smith Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:41 am
Now …
1st Ad - 8.75 out of 10 … powerful, but be careful how it closes … the facts were powereful enough
2nd Ad = 6 …(crickets) … the 1st ad tells me all I need to know, the 2nd ad tells me too much to know, so stick with the 1st ad.
3rd Ad = 3 … Congratulations, your daughter thinks you are great. I get it … but why is she introducing you to me about how great of a guy you are … in October … ????
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:42 am
What exactly is government if not people?
If the Illinois State Government is “people”, then history tells us we have the wrong people. In our current situation State government is a combination of special interest groups, political hacks and incompetent administrators. All a combinatin of “people” just the wrong combination.
Comment by downstate hack Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:44 am
The early release ad is a closer for sure. Probably help get his numbers back up.
Just one question. If you’re going to cut all the state agencies by 10% across the board, how can he not plan to release any “hardened criminals” himself?
Of course Randle and the IDOC thing was a mess, but I do think that its worth pointing out that when you cut state spending by 10% you will be cutting education and you will be releasing prisoners.
Comment by Siriusly Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:46 am
The first ad is great. Niles, I wouldn’t be so sure that everyone remembers what happened with MGT Push and the whole sordid debacle. We all knew Brady would bring this up at some point. Well, now he has. And, honestly, what great timing. He is slumping in the polls and needs a boost. While he’s on his bus tour, he can run the two safety ads up north and, if it plays out as expected, be confident the message will spread.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:56 am
I disagree with the comments here about the third ad. I thought it was terriffic and actually got me somewhat verklempt when I saw her in the hospital scrubs. This means the painting of the guy as a neanderthal is just a bunch of hogwash. I thought the first ad was quite good, too. Frankly, all of the ads should have great appeal to women voters for different reasons - safety and opportunity. That’s what sells, and Brady nailed it.
Comment by phocion Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:57 am
This is the 2nd Brady commercial I’ve seen starring himself. Maybe I’m bias but I think he looks kinda nuts. I don’t think he should star in his own ads.
The daughter ad is good because it is trying to keep some women in his camp.
The attack ad should be countered by Quinn telling women if you are sexually attacked and got pregnant, Brady is against the morning after pill. That ought to keep this election in the gutter where this ad came from.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:00 pm
Daughter should say and I want to thank my dad and mom for paying for my education while he fired most of his employees because he overbuilt homes while the market was stalling in central Illinois. Bill’s wife drew a salary from the company, too, while he was firing his workers.
Comment by Nearly Normal Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:03 pm
Ah, I was waiting for that first ad. Kaboom. Run it for the next 2-3 weeks. That issue will really reasonate with women.
A 10!
Comment by Fred Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:16 pm
Daughter ad is solid - What says more about your integrity and leadership than how you raise your children??
Comment by Indy Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:27 pm
BTW, it’s funny to see Brady who ran so smug now figuring out that the women’s vote is a problem.
Trouble is, it’s an insurmountable problem.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:28 pm
Quinn just lost!
Comment by Its over Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:29 pm
Yep, everyone should all repeat “Quinn is toast”
Oh wait, nobody voted yet-maybe I missed the prediction blog so I’ll chime in here. Quinn by 10 points.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:32 pm
The 1st ad is a great hits Quinn hard and helps to remind the elector of Quinn’s bad decisions in the past.
The 2nd ad is not quite as good as the first one but hits a similar message and I think that Brady comes off as rather personable and friendly in the ad.
The 3rd ad is probably the weakest, but I think it is a pretty good ad too. It any an effective counter to attempts by Quinn to paint him as some kind of women hating orge
Comment by RMW Stanford Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:39 pm
10, 7, 8
Yeah it might be a bit late to try to define Bill Brady but it is a bit of a counter to the Who Is This Guy stuff…
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:41 pm
At the end of the day she was not George Sangmeister and for that she fails.
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:43 pm
Ad 1 - 7.5. It isn’t nearly as good as Hynes’ early release ads.
Ad 2 - 4. Pretty boring ad, with little substance and cheesy punchline.
Ad 3 - 2. No one cares what your daughter thinks about you as a candidate.
Comment by dave Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 1:39 pm
First ad was the Willie Horton ad that I’ve been expecting. It closed a huge gap for Dan Hynes in a hurry, so the Brady campaign would’ve been foolish to not use it. That ad should run over and over for the rest of the campaign…there’s no way Quinn can recover from it, in my opinion. I’d give it a 9.5 out 10.
Second ad, 6.5 out of 10. Nothing special, but may get someone’s attention.
Third ad, 8 out of 10. To political insiders, it’s not impressive, but to the average woman voter, it’s a nice ad. My wife hates politics and she loved it.
Comment by eastsider Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 1:48 pm
Nearly Normal—You are certainly free to open your own home construction firm and control your destiny. I read real estate reports from all over and very few builders/developers were not impacted the last couple of years, even the very best.
But, have at it if you feel you are a superior business person.
Comment by Fred Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 1:49 pm
Brady should do the MGT push attack from here on out and do multiple variations of it. This was all Quinn. He can’t say that he inherited HIS administration’s secret early prison fiasco. This issue should haunt him to his grave.
It is in real poor taste to suggest, as some commenters have here, that Quinn should counter on the abortion issue to cover him on having let dangerous offenders out early some of who went on to engage in criminal sexual assaults against minors or who are alleged to have murdered a grandmother with her 8 month granddaughter witnessing the killing. Quinn supporters are a lot like Quinn. I believe the NW Herald summed Quinn up accurately when it referred to him as ‘frightening.’ Why would or should any woman feel good or safe with Quinn leading this state?
The important thing to keep in mind about MGT Push was that it was a secret Quinn administration policy that Quinn admitted that he knew about before it was launched. Of course he didn’t want to admit that at first, but he was forced to.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 1:55 pm
The one thing I will add in response to the commenters bashing the daughter ad: Megan McCain. Some may be thinking, “Huh?!” Ms. McCain disagrees with many of her dad’s stances and often times would not appear with him in 2008. Alan Keyes daughter apparently won’t speak to her dad. It’s not a given that a candidate’s kid would do a commercial for - or even vote for - his or her parent. Sounds trite, but you never know.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 1:55 pm
Nothing new = no impact. We’ve heard it a million times before financed by millions of dollars worth of advertising.
Comment by Quinn-bashing fad Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 2:05 pm
#3 is gravy $ for the consultants … “Is this your daughter? Let’s do an ad with her! She’ll be great.”
#1 should be up for the remainder.
Comment by Pioneer P. Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 2:07 pm
Katie Brady for Lt. Gov!! She is about the same age as Plummer, is a lot more likable, and even has a real job. I bet she would release her tax returns too…
Comment by wise guy Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 2:09 pm
Yes, Wise Guy, that would be great. And, with no offense to Jason, she’s much prettier.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 2:12 pm
Judging by the responses, the Quinn fans are worried about MGT Push. As well they should be.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 2:13 pm
The first thing I notice in the first one is that it boldly starts w/ a number, but then says “many” have committed crimes…seemed a little McCarthy-esque.
Comment by D.P. Gumby Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 2:16 pm
I think Stephen Colbert’s got the fear campaign covered. Do we really want a politician who’s a master spin-doctor? Let’s consider for once the positive side of Quinn’s management style: honest, caring, fair, supportive, hard-working, efficient, straightforward, knowledgable, experienced, practical, it just keeps getting better and better and the list goes on and on…
Comment by Quinn-bashing fad Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 2:39 pm
C’mon man, Quinn’s a decent guy but he’s not a CEO. If he had a strong Chief of Staff like Jim Reilly, it’s a different story.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 2:50 pm
Quinn knows state government like the back of his hand. This ain’t the ivy league, this is government for, by, and of the people.
Comment by Quinn-bashing fad Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 3:08 pm
Well, QBF, based on the past 21 months, I dispute your notion that Quinn knows state government “like the back of his hand”.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 3:11 pm
I think the point of the daughter ad is to humanize Brady. The presumed cognescenti have been beating Brady up as a puppy killer, anti-women and such, for a long time. What better rebuttal to that meme than his attractive daughter?
Comment by Cincinnatus Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 3:18 pm
Good ads, all of them. The first two dwell on the Governor’s mess of freeing felons to save a buck, and the results of that mess.
The last is intended to humanize Brady. You have a daughter? Then you’ll get it’s appeal. It is always good for a candidate to show that they are human by revealing their very real children.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 4:02 pm
A CEO can answer tough questions from the shareholders. A CEO has a real budget plan. A CEO has a record of real accomplishments.
Comment by Quinn-bashing fad Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 4:04 pm