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* More bad news for Democrats…
“We’re down about 60,000 registered voters from where we were two years ago,” said Chicago Election Board Chairman Langdon Neal. […]
“We did a major canvass in which we verify our rolls to make sure they’re clean this summer,” Neal said. “So, we’ve cleaned the rolls so that our voting rolls are very accurate in terms of eligible voters, so that results in some loss of voters.” […]
Outside of Chicago there has been a spike in registration compared to 2006. In each of the collar counties, the numbers of registered voters is up: in DuPage, Will, Lake, Kane and McHenry counties the increase totals almost 110,000 new voters.
* The Question: How big of a GOP wave are you predicting for this year? Quantify it, please and explain.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:07 am
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Two weeks ago I would have said BIG, but as we get closer to Nov.2 It looks more and more like Indies are going to stay with the Dems. Also, I do think the whole tea-party thing is backfiring, helping the Dems.
Comment by VoterUSA Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:14 am
severe thunderstorm not a tsunami.
Halvorson/Quinn/Alexi lose-rain
Foster/Seals/dems lose us house -severe thunderstorm
bean/Hare/dems lose illinois house/us senate /Tsunami
Comment by shore Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:15 am
In Illinois, less than I thought a couple of months ago, when I expected the lousy economy and the Dems control of Springfield and Washington to produce a GOP tsunami.
Based on recent polls, Alexi and Quinn are still in the hunt, which is very surprising to me, especially Alexi. I thought Kirk was a strong candidate and Alexi an empty suit with a bad bank.
Alexi’s still all that, but Kirk, besides shooting himself in the foot, just doesn’t seem to connect in a strong way with anyone.
Put it this way, if it’s not a bloodbath at the top with Sen. and Gov., Dems can right the ship with Jesse and Lisa and maybe there’s not so much trouble for Dems farther down the ballot.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:20 am
Given that Democrats have been migrating to the burbs, the loss of Chicago voters may be a wash.
Perhaps 3-4 House seats; 2-3 Senate seats. Downstate has turned on the Dems.
Comment by David Ormsby Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:20 am
I’m guessing more IL GOPers in the US house. I’d guess Brady barely edges out Quinn. Not sure about the US Senate. Not sure how the rest of the state house turns out.
I think number is higher in the collar counties because people feel fooled by seeing Blagojevich voted twice without them actively participating in the vote (I haven’t looked to see how many voters came out in ‘02 and ‘06, so I could be wrong). I think that was the wake up call. I’d guess that there’s more registered voters because of state issues, not so much federal issues.
Comment by Davey Boy Smithe Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:20 am
The statewide races will be narrower as people always stick to their partisan guns. However, just from observation in Central Illinois, Democrat campaigns from County Board to US Senate are putting forth an anemic effort.
The Republican candidates, many of whom have nothing to worry about in a bad year, are piling on.
Forget Brady and Kirk carrying each other to victory; the local candidates may simply run up the vote downstate, where (I think) around 40% of the vote is.
Prediction: Within 6 points for statewide races.
Comment by Matt Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:21 am
I see a big GOP wave, but because of some newer incumbent Dems and some “stoppers” on the ballot, it won’t be a clean sweep like 1994.
IL House Dems lose 5 seats net (-7 +2)
IL Senate Dems lose 3 seats net (-3)
Congressional delegation net loss of 1 (Debbie and Hare lose, Dems pick up the Kirk seat)
Senate, Treasurer and Comptroller all go GOP.
The Gov’s race is still too close for me to call, 10 days ago I would have put money on Brady - now I’m just not sure.
Comment by Siriusly Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:22 am
IL does better for Dems than what we thought a few weeks ago and better than the national scene. Quinn wins by 2 or 3 points with women voters proving decisive. Alexi wins in a squeeker involving a recount. White and Lisa win (duh). Topinka womps Miller. Kelly wins barely. IL House stays Dem but just barely. Halvorson and Foster lose. Hare squeeks out a victory but with a recount.
Comment by Just Sayin' Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:24 am
This is not surprising to me at all. Chicago has been slowly losing Democratic voters for years and they are moving to the burbs. We need to look at the numbers for the burbs before we can anaylze anything. Chicago is not the city it once was for Democrats. Chicago does not carry the state for the Democratic party instead the burbs now do. Chicago is only about 20% of the states voting population.
Comment by Publius Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:25 am
As we get closer to the big day excitement is going to build, not decay. I’m going to go against my cynical gut and say tsunami. GOP edges Dems in voter turn out.
Add rocketing gas prices to the list of complaints.
Comment by Greg B. Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:27 am
The lower voter registration number underscores what I see as a bad trend for Democratic candidates. There seems to be an “enthusiasm” factor that will lead to an increase in GOP turnout. Given fewer registered voters in Democratic Cook County coupled with already expected low turnout could be the death knell for Quinn and Alexi. At this point, I see Cross gaining 6-8 seats, Radogno picking up 2-3 and Brady winning by 2-3 points.
Comment by culatr Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:28 am
Nov. 2nd will be a good day for the Republicans, but probably not on the level of 1994. Brady beats Quinn, Kirk probably edges Alexi, Rutherford and Topkina win and the GOP picks few US house seats and in the state House and Senate. Nation wide the GOP picks up the House but does not quite make it in the senate.
Comment by RMW Stanford Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:33 am
Biggest GOP sweep in our lifetime.
Only White and Madigan survive statewide.
Hare, Halvorson, Foster all lose.
Dold wins.
Kirk wins.
GOP takes both House and Senate.
Bigger than 1994, by far.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:48 am
I think the Republicans are putting a bit too much faith that the Tea Party/Independents will help carry them.
As I see it Independents for the most part will be voting against incumbents.
I generally agree with RMW. However might see a big pickup of both Senate and House on the national scene. It ain’t working the way it is so pretty much anything will help to modify the party of spend and the party of no.
As for me, I’m tired of the incompetence and thievery. I say throw them all out.
Comment by Justice Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:49 am
There will be Republican gains, but I think Illinois is not going to equal the national trend. The Illinois GOP is still weak and crossover voters who are intending to vote for Republican candidates are not so much in favor of the Republicans as they are angry and dissatisfied with the Democrats. Brady and Kirk may be elected, but I question if they will serve more than single terms. There will be some Congressional pick ups also. I see Halvorson and Foster going down. Bean has a free ride due to her opponent. The two to watch are Dold/Seals and Hare/Schilling.
Chicago’s decline as a voting bloc has to be seen in context. Voter apathy is a factor, but so is immigration. In addition to losing residents to the suburbs, Chicago has a substantial population of immigrants (legal and illegal), who are simply ineligible to register and vote. All wards are supposed to have similar base populations, but if you look at the election results posted in the various majority Latino wards, voter participation rates are pathetic. All the same, these districts have representation based upon the small number of people who actually cast ballots. It is worth recalling that some immigrants come from home countries where voting is disdained since political corruption is so rampant. During the reign of Richard J. Daley, voters could trade their votes for city services (new garbage cans, tree pruning or removal, a sidewalk repair), but what do they get now? Nothing.
The Downstate vote is going to be more important in 2010. I see Brady getting some votes simply due to his being a Downstate candidate rather than a Chicagoan.
Comment by Honest Abe Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:50 am
I forgot to mention that Illinois Supreme Court Justice Thomas Kilbride is going to have to work to be retained in his judicial district. He may not be retained and ordinarily retention is a slam dunk. Kilbride’s opponents need only 40.1% of the vote to send him packing.
Comment by Honest Abe Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 11:54 am
VM, I’m going to clip and save your post.
I think this will be a very good year for the GOP nationally, and the GOP will take the US House. In Illinois, Cross will gain a few seats as will Radogno. Topinka wins, Rutherford maybe, Kirk and Brady have a good shot at victory.
But it ain’t going to be a tidal wave. There is no straight ticket voting in Illinois anymore (thank you Lee Daniels), so that will limit the damage. And the Tea Party candidates are scaring the heck out of independents, which only helps the Democrats.
Poor turnout is what the real story will be: Democrats staying home will lead to whatever gains the GOP realizes.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 12:02 pm
Not much of a wave -
Alexi beats Kirk
Quinn beats Brady - too much of a change in Brady’s positions recently lose him votes. (Hopefully Whitney gets at least 10%)
Halverson loses
Illinois House goes Republican -push back against Incumbants and Madigan- This is a hope.
Most US House seats go to incumbants so Dems hold their seats. Schock might be in trouble for his anti stimulus money vote and position. He came out hard against the Obama administration in spite of the fact that his popular mentor and predecessor is part of that administration. With CAT in his district that probably wasn’t a good idea.
Topinka, White, and Madigan are shoe-ins.
The divisions in the Republican Party, Crossroads/Tea Party/Moderates do not allow them to fully take advantage of any anti - status quo movement.
Comment by Irish Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 12:06 pm
May be wishful thinking, but the Republican wave may be peaking too early and the counter wave response from Dem side may be building as best it can at just the right time. Everything will be tight with a long night and probable re-counts and surprises, but mixed narratives.
Comment by D.P. Gumby Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 12:09 pm
Brady wins.
Kirk wins.
Seals wins.
Kinzinger wins.
Foster wins.
Schilling wins.
The House GOPs pick up 8 seats to make it close.
The Senate GOPs pick up 4 seats to make it interesting.
The wave will be bigger in other states. The registered Dem numbers vs. registered GOP numbers just makes it too tough for us to have the same wave effect that will occur nationally. However, winning the Governor’s Mansion, a Senate seat and having 9 out of the 19 Congressional seats is a good start and it gives us something good to build upon for 2012 and 2014.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 12:16 pm
Irish, not to potshot you, but Schock will win by 30%.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 12:17 pm
It should be noted that while the Chicago board of elections does a pretty good job in purging outdated voter registrations, the same can not be said for the office our five-term goofus, Cook County Clerk David Orr, who has screwed up the conducting of suburban elections for 20 years. And only the Good Lord knows how well the collar counties do in keeping an up-to-date and accurate voter registration list during a time of rising populations and minimal additionalbudget allocations to those offices.
What I am trying to note is that we have heard past tales of disaster for Democrats based on a reduced number of voter registrations within the City of Chicago. Generally, those predictions have not come to pass, in part because they fail to take into accout the fact that purging of outdated voting records is far more commonly done in the city than in the suburbs, collar counties or Downstate.
Comment by fedup dem Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 12:17 pm
Brady/Kirk/Rutherford/Judy Baar win
Kinzinger/Dold/Schilling win.
IL House GOP +3, IL Senate GOP +2(Cedra Crenshaw stuns AJ Wilhelmi)
Nationally-GOP does not take US House, Dems have a 3 seat majority. US Senate-GOP gains 3 seats, Dems retain control.
Comment by Joliet Jackhammers, RIP Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 12:27 pm
Very close statewide races could be decided by weather. 70 degrees and sunny in Chicago, dems win.
Comment by whatever Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 12:45 pm
I read some data on this voter registration thing and GOP registration is up 2:1 over the Democrats. What could have been a national wave of 100 seats in the US House is blunted by Democrats coming home, but still will be way too little to overcome the number of Independents that vote Republican. Tea Party activism will be shown (after analysis) to have added only 2 points to the GOP percentages and will be part of the reason for voter preference, but will be swamped by anti-incumbentism. Regardless:
US House - +51 GOP
US Senate - +6 GOP
I made these two predictions in February, 2009 and am sticking with them.
Closer to home:
Kirk +2.5 over Alexi because of the raw number of dollars that will be sunk into this race by Kirk and outside organizations. Kirk will do better downstate and in the collars than predicted
Brady +5 over Quinn The recent polling showing Quinn either slightly ahead or even with Brady represent Quinn’s peak polls. Brady and Brady supporters flood airwaves with negative ads about early prison release, sweetheart union deals and the budget deficit and they stick with voters.
ILHouse - GOP +7
IL Senate - GOP +4
Two or three surprise winners for the GOP will happen in some unlikely areas. It will be attributed to Brady’s and to a much lesser degree Kirk’s coattails.
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 12:46 pm
So big that even an empty suit like Bill Brady has a shot at winning.
Comment by just sayin' Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 12:51 pm
While there appears to be much enthusiasm in the republican camp, the democrats have not been in charge for as long as they have by not snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. The democrats appear to be starting to wake up.
If held today, I would have to call the governor and senate races democrat. Kinzinger wins a seat that was historically republican so that is not much of a gain. As much as I hate to utter this- it looks like Seals may win.
Republicans gain at least two Illinois constitutional offices, three house seats, one senate seat. At the federal level, gain two congressional seats. Governor and Senator will be incredibly close- possibly as close as republican primary.
Comment by Richard Afflis Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 12:53 pm
Nationally, big Republican gains. In Illinois, not much change.
Comment by Eugene Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 1:07 pm
Honestly a big republican wave in Illinois.
Lets step back.
Guv. Quinn is seeing movement up in the polls, seems to be a real trend, he wins.
Down ballot on the state wide, toss up, White, Madigan, of course, Judy Barr, perhaps, but come on, she comes across as yesterday’s bitter old leader.
Illinois House and Senate races, lets not kids ourselves here, the map wasn’t drawn for people to loss their seats, not much change here or there, and a republican take over is only the dreams of the GOP.
Will Alexi lose? He could, but I can’t see the national dems letting that happen, he wins by two points.
Congressional races, sure there will probably be a couple of dems lose here in Illinois, but again these maps weren’t drawn for incumbents to lose.
2012 will be when things get interesting look for a lot of people to lose seats i.e. Shimkus is toast, and then the Illinois House and Senate races should be interesting.
Comment by (618)662 Dem Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 1:20 pm
Quinn and Alexi win, Halverson loses, House loses 4 seats and Senate loses two or three. Tom Cross quits and tries to get a real job. Not much of a storm. Mike Madigan resigns after he is appointed Pope by the College of Cardinals.
Comment by Bill Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 1:30 pm
It’s a Tidal Wave…Elections are determined by the people who show up. This year the GOP base is motivated and democrats aren’t, especially Illinois Democrats. Unlike other parts of the country, Illinois doesn’t have any high profile “Tea Party Candidates” to scare the B-Jesus out of democrats and independents. The economy is in the tank and Obama is generating barely enough energy to get out of bed in the morning. Any Democrat that is not 6 to 8 points ahead in their polls on Election Day will lose.
US Senate: Kirk holds on to win
Gov: Quinn deserves to lose and will….
Comment by Louis Howe Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 1:31 pm
The Cook County Clerk’s office also canvassed this summer and purged more than 70,000 from it’s rolls. The number of registered voters in suburban Cook grew in the last few weeks by about 10,000, which is typical before any election. This information was left out of the news report.
Comment by Courtney Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 1:50 pm
I see lisa madigan and Jessie White winning for the dems state wide. Kirk and brady eek out wins small gains in the state house for the GOP. Halverson goes down, Seals loses again and opens Ice cream shop. Lead story on evening news Nov 2 in Chicago Rahm visits nursing home and meeks stops by Mannys for corned Beef, Dart still considering run for mayor. Obama states over all it was a good day.
Comment by fed up Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 1:50 pm
===I see lisa madigan and Jessie White winning for the dems state wide. ===
You really went out on a thin limb there, man. lol
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 1:55 pm
trying to be positive for the dems Rich. I think Preckwinkle will win too.
Comment by fed up Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 1:58 pm
The GOP nationwide will capture between 6-8 seats in the Senate and 60-75 seats in the House. Current pundits are claiming 10 in the Senate but I haven’t seen a prior election where 10 more Senate seats changed hands in the same year. The release of the latest unemployment numbers tomorrow will cement the Dems fate where it stands at 26.2 million unemployed.
Comment by Segatari Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 2:33 pm
Courtney, any statement made by the chronicly-mismanaged office of Cook County Clerk David Orr regarding any cliamed accomplishment in the operation of the election process needs to be taken with a quarry full of salt!
Comment by fedup dem Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 3:28 pm
I agree with those who say the national tide will run stronger than the tide in Illinois. One, the President is still much more popular in IL than he is nationwide and I think we will see some of him and the first lady in the next 20 days, as well as a few Cabinet sightings.
Two, the map is a D map. Three, it doesn’t look like there will be a huge win at the top of the ticket to bring along some lower races that might be on the bubble.
So, very good year for we Rs nationally, decent year here in Illinois but not a realignment year.
Comment by steve schnorf Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 4:16 pm
I stick by my earlier prediction. Brady by at least 5%, Kirk squeaks by at 1 or 2 percent. Big gains in the House for Republicans.
Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 4:21 pm
Curious.
Judy never seems to say much about Alexi’s bright start losses.
Hmmmm.
Wonder why.
You’d think she’d be doing daily testimonials for fellow GOPer Kirk to back him up.
Odd.
Comment by Piling on Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 4:28 pm
My shocker upset pick is Pollack over Schakowsky by a handful of votes.
Pollack is getting huge local Tea Pary support, and he neutralizes some of Schakowsky’s base among north suburban Jews.
I don’t see Schilling over Phil Hare as an upset any more, and Hultgren should beat Foster in a Republican district. I’m concerned about Bob Dold’s chances against Seals.
Comment by Bubs Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 4:38 pm
I think statewide dems will still buy the kool-aid and believe in the Chicago D’s who run everything for one more election cycle. I think the big dissafection/stay home will come four years from now. In the meantime, I can’t believe PQ will be elected. Otherwise, not too many D losses this time.
Comment by Park Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 8:49 pm
US House GOP takes it (with a non-working majority)
US Senate GOP picks up 8 seats
IL Gov-GOP (especially if Scott Lee Cohen is only worht $5-$6 Million)
Treasurer to GOP
US Sen-GOP
Kinzinger Wins
Dold Wins
Bean Wins
Hare=Embarrassingly close win (55%+)
and on the 6AM news 11/3 the Chicago Media asks what the implications about this election are for the Mayoral race.
Comment by JCIII Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 10:23 pm