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* What will be the biggest Illinois surprise on election day?
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 11:49 am
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Regrettably in the top two races someone will actually win and they will be from the two major parties.
Comment by IrishPirate Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 11:52 am
Quinn wins and Dems retain majority in the House.
Comment by both sides of aisle Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 11:52 am
Robin Kelly victory.
Comment by Chubs Mahoney Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 11:52 am
Rahm Emanuel going to the polls to vote will be the second story on the nightly news instead of the first.
Comment by trees Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 11:54 am
Scott Cohen’s numbers in minority wards.
Comment by Ivoted4Judy Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 11:55 am
Trees: I think Rahm already early voted.
Comment by Ivoted4Judy Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 11:56 am
Scott Lee Cohen will be arrested giving out cash at polling places….oh wait you said a surprise.
All four tv stations have reporters at Rahm Emmanuel’s campaign headquarters… oh wait, let me try again.
Illinois House shocks everyone and the Republicans take the majority.
Comment by A.B. Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 11:57 am
How bad the Democrats may or may not do with US House races
Comment by Rahm's Parking Meter Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 11:57 am
Well he is trying to prove he is a true Chicagoan, so he might go vote again.
Comment by trees Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:00 pm
David Anderson beats Joe Lyons for State Rep.
Comment by Ron Day Voo Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:00 pm
Kirk win called by 8pm.
Comment by 10th Indy Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:00 pm
Robin Kelly wins …
Rutherford can thank Kim and Enriquez for this loss … or credit to Lisa and Jesse for stopping the bleeding
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:01 pm
the biggest surprise will be that any media coverage on election day in the chicago media market will focus on the mayoral race. they may not tell us who won at all. well, maybe after everyone’s gone to bed…
Comment by bored now Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:03 pm
If Russ stewart gets a prediction right.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:05 pm
Ah, what the hell?
Put my pick on Jeremy Karpen edging Toni Berrios.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:06 pm
Me boarding a flight to Puerto Rico leaving that morning for vacation. I’m a little sad I won’t be here for the fun, but the GF and I need a vacation. (voted early this past weekend)
Comment by Davey Boy Smithe Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:07 pm
BTW, Ron Day Voo,
If your prediction is right, the dems might as well pack it in because that would truly be a surprise.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:09 pm
that no winner emerges in the race for Governor due to absentee military ballots coming in late
Comment by DzNuts Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:10 pm
Forrest Claypool forgetting to vote.
Comment by Great Caesar's Ghost! Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:12 pm
Hopefully that Republicans make some big gains in the Assembly. I think the Democrats have had their chances, quite a few of them, over the past decade. I wish we’d seen more turnover of R’s in the primaries, though.
Comment by Liandro Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:13 pm
I was going to say joel pollak getting 40 percent then I looked at his fec report and saw that the guy had twenty seven hundred bucks left in his bank account on september 30th.
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/?_10+H0IL09064
Comment by shore Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:15 pm
Bean underperforming.
Comment by T.J. Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:17 pm
Senator-elect Alexi Giannoulias.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:17 pm
After watching the democrats destroy our state government and spent the state into bankruptcy, why should there even be any close contests?
Comment by seebee Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:18 pm
Scott Lee Cohen will pull out the most surprising victory in electoral history only to be arrested by a joint Federal/Local task force during his victory speech.
There will also be rumors that Interpol was in on the investigation.
PS
No hookers were harmed during the typing of this comment and no illegal substances were injested.
Comment by IrishPirate Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:22 pm
Alexi wins by 8 pm
Comment by Anon Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:22 pm
I’m tempted to say that the surprise will be nobody talking about Illinois. The national news of GOP taking the House and coming within a seat of the Senate (with the possibility of Lieberman finishing off the deal for the GOP) will be all anyone in Illinois or elsewhere will be talking about. Illinois people not talking about Illinois? That would be a surprise.
To the extent that they do talk about Illinois, the surprise will be that the GOP wave really pounds Illinois. Brady, Kirk win. Foster, Hare, Halvorsen all lose. Moreover, despite polling numbers now, the margins will not be narrow. People are saying we will be counting Gov votes for three days. No, it will all be over by 8:30. The margins will be the real story.
The Dems nominated bad candidates for the top two (three including Lt. Gov.) which is going to cost them Gov. and Senate (I like Alexi and will do what I can, but to be honest, there were far better candidates in the party.).
Democrats nationally have done a bad job selling the performance by Obama, Reid, and Pelosi which will cost them the three House seats. Doing a good job is not enough. You need to make people know you’ve done a good job. The Democrats failed at that last one.
Comment by Skeeter Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:25 pm
Foster, Seals and Bean winning the trifecta.
Comment by Reformer Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:25 pm
Bean losing and Been winning
Comment by Reggie P Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:28 pm
At midnight, the top two races will still be too close to call. One will still be too close to call 48-hours later.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:28 pm
Kirk’s winning margin - +7 or better
Comment by Bluejay Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:29 pm
After Alexi concedes defeat, BO announces he will head up Fannie and Freddie!
And Skeeter, what is that old joke about putting lipstick on a pig?????
Comment by Wally Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:30 pm
SLC files his D-2
Comment by OneMan Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:31 pm
Walter Jacobson says the Thompson/Stevenson race is too close to call; slugs an intern when reminded that it’s 2010.
Mike Flannery appears unexpectedly at the Channel 2 desk; Bob Sirott tries to take his seat at the Channel 5 desk.
John Kass appears on Fox News and says there doesn’t appear to be an Obama/Madigan/Daley Conspiracy behind any of the returns. “Really, they’re pretty decent guys,” he adds.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:33 pm
I think there will be something unforseen happening in the last 10 days that really swings the top of the ticket election to one side or the other. Some issue that noone forsees that resonates with voters and determines the election. What that is, I’m not sure but it will be debated heavily afterwords. Now I’m done channeling Nostrodomus.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:34 pm
Alexi and Quinn both win, though in close races that don’t get dealt with until the next day, and the Republicans take the Illinois House.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:34 pm
After unusually bitter concession speech containing the words “screw all of you” - Mark Kirk announces he has a better offer in China anyway.
Comment by just sayin' Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:35 pm
The surprise I predict will be that after all the attention-mongering, the tea party factor will be a fizzle, and the dems are going to do a LOT better than the republicans or the mainstream press figured.
Comment by Gregor Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:36 pm
Scott Lee Cohen wins, but because the Tribune finds some questionable activities during his campaign, he resigns the pending office on Wednesday.
Comment by downstate hack Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:39 pm
Win or Lose Alexi announces he is running for Mayor.
Comment by OneMan Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:43 pm
The Edmonton Oilers beating the Canucks 4-2.
Comment by Jeff Wartman Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:43 pm
my bad, pollak has 486 bucks left in his campaign coffers.
http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/HSRefreshCandList.do?category=disH&stateName=IL&congressId=09&election_yr=2010
Comment by shore Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:45 pm
Dold vs. Seals outcome is one of the closest Congressional races in the country. Winner is decided by less than 250 votes. Flip a coin.
Comment by Anon 7 Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:49 pm
Democratic majority is the state house is down to 5
Comment by OneMan Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:53 pm
Kevin Spacey is Kaizer Soze.
Comment by Solomon Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:54 pm
Turns out that the Rent is not too high.
Comment by Moving to Oklahoma Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:57 pm
Here is a harry osterman rant,enjoy. Rich would you please post this! More no answer!
Comment by Patrick McDonough Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:58 pm
Brady wins and Moody downgrades all Illinois bonds to the BB rating.
Comment by JN Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:59 pm
Who Daley ends up backing for Governor.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:00 pm
Despite winning by a large margin, Tony Peraica demands voter fraud and leads a midnight march to the Board of Elections.
Comment by Anonymiss Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:03 pm
Justice Kilbride receives 57%. Is NOT retained to the Supreme Court.
Comment by Jon Zahm Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:04 pm
That the major networks and cable providers will establish a 24 hour political ad channel, where you can watch attack ads till you head explodes.
Comment by WRMNpolitics Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:09 pm
Moving to Oklahoma, best post of the day.
Comment by just sayin' Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:12 pm
Phineas J. Whoopee - Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 12:34: I’m with you on this one… not sure what, maybe the GOP/Chamber’s foreign fund-raising operation?… I just have that feeling something is going to pop next week.
Comment by VoterUSA Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:12 pm
That Rich Miller will be able to stand without help, from too much victory celebration!!
Comment by He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:13 pm
Jeff Tobolski picks off Tony Peraica for Cook County Commissioner in the 16th District.
Comment by Bring Back Boone's Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:15 pm
The big surprise will be turnout from the dems, pushing one or more of the elections into a recount….
Wordslinger announces he is teaming up with Glen Beck as a co-host…
Bill issues an apology for Blago and announces he will be Quinns next chief of staff…
Comment by Ghost Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:15 pm
===The surprise I predict will be that after all the attention-mongering, the tea party factor will be a fizzle, and the dems are going to do a LOT better than the republicans or the mainstream press figured.===
I agree with Gregor on this one. But it will be a national conversation…not just limited to Illinois. There will be a lot of stories on how the media missed certain trends, that the media fell under the spell of the angry, loudmouth TeaBaggers. Pollsters will be looking at their predictions and comptemplate that they’re gonna have to change their methods. It, therefore, shouldn’t come as any surprise when the right-wingers shout foul and voter fraud..that the liberals around the country played fast and loose with the ballots and the vote count.
Gawd…I hope I’m right.
Comment by Deep South Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:16 pm
Biggest surprise will be that RINOs who run the GOP find out that conservatives WIN elections!
Comment by Segatari Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:17 pm
During a tearful and heartfelt concession speech, Giannoulias thanks Jaws for all his help and support.
Comment by ANON Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:17 pm
–Tony Peraica demands voter fraud and leads a midnight march to the Board of Elections.–
Presumably, he won’t walk in the wrong direction for two blocks this time.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:24 pm
That the world won’t end for the losing party.
Comment by Ahoy Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:25 pm
Cedra Crenshaw beats AJ Wilhelmi and the Machine in the 43rd Senate District.
Comment by Joliet Jackhammers, RIP Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:25 pm
Raymond Hancock and Jason Kyle decide NOT to vote for Scott Lee Cohen.
Comment by Bluefish Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:27 pm
Roland Burris reclaims the Senate seat after defeating Alexi in a free throw contest and defeating Kirk in an lie detector test.
Comment by Davey Boy Smithe Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:30 pm
I will have some I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter spread and despite the hype I will believe that it’s not butter.
Comment by We Todd Did Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:32 pm
Kirk claims in his victory speech that he is now President of the United States.
Comment by CLJ Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:46 pm
That the top 2 offices, Gov and U.S. Senate, will be so close, no winner will be known for weeks.
Comment by Not Rush Limbaugh Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:52 pm
–Kevin Spacey is Kaizer Soze.–
Mark Kirk just gave a speech where he announced that he is Keyser Soze.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:53 pm
That we’ll all wake up on November 3rd and realize that the last 8 years were all just some sort of bad dream.
Comment by Good Thinkin' Lincoln Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:00 pm
LG-elect Jason Plummer releases his tax returns only to ILCA members from 11:00 p.m. to 11:15 p.m. at the Cairo Community Center.
Comment by Vote Quimby! Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:00 pm
That Mark Kirk sees dead people and they vote
Comment by Good Thinkin' Lincoln Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:03 pm
That Norm Davis will be Naomi Jakobsson in the 103rd race! That would be huge.
Comment by CM46 Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:04 pm
Zahm, that might be a surprise to some, but not to me.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:05 pm
I will go with the same answer I gave when you asked the same question in September:
Biggest surprise winner
John Patrick Ryan
and again I will apologize to the Speaker for my sarcastic remark.
My real answer is Robin Kelly will squeek by.
Comment by Been There Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:07 pm
Quinn, Alexi, and Robin all win. Quinn’s very close. But the biggest surprise is Debbie Halvorson winning. It could tip the House to the Democrats.
Comment by John Presta Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:10 pm
Bring Back Boones:
=Jeff Tobolski picks off Tony Peraica for Cook County Commissioner in the 16th District.=
You know, I have a strange feeling that you may be on to something. Tobolski’s signs are all over and Tony’s goons are putting up “Backed By Stroger” stickers on those signs. Manzo must be flipping his wig at the polls to resort to that! Next move for Peraica from his playbook? Calling Tobolski “mobbed up”. When that happens, you’ll know Tony is sweating.
Comment by Him Say Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:10 pm
Sam McCann beats Deanna Demuzio.
Comment by Bob Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:12 pm
Speaker Cross
Comment by rhymin' simon Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:12 pm
low turnout. Although it is really not a surprise, it will be played by the media as if it is the number one story
Comment by anonymouse Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:14 pm
The voters don’t become completely disenfranchised.
Comment by Why Not? Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:14 pm
Quinn wins, Dean Martinez named Sr. Dep Gov. Pat Quinn realizes he made a mistake.
Comment by Statesman Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:17 pm
RICH
When will you give your predictions re: state wide office winners, Senate and House control?
Comment by MOON Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:21 pm
Robert Enriquez will get more votes than dollars contributed to his campaign.
Comment by pathetic Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:22 pm
I hate writing this stuff down, but just in case I’m right, I want to save it for posterity.
Biggest surprise: The “enthusiasm gap” is a myth, or at least not as big as reported. R turnout will be up a few points, but D turnout won’t be depressed.
As a result, Dems will generally do better than expected, Cross will have oversold his potential, and Quinn will eke out a victory on the order of one or two votes per precinct. Get that neck brace, Rich!
Comment by Thoughts... Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:24 pm
I think it’s interesting that pretty much all of the “surprise” election results predicted here are of Democrats winning.
Comment by phocion Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:25 pm
Sorry its unrelated but, Sneed did it again: “Sneed: Executive sweep? The Stroger file.”
Well as it turns out Video: Another oops for Sneed? Stroger claims raid story all wrong
http://blogs.vocalo.org/agill/2010/10/video-another-oops-for-sneed-stroger-claims-raid-story-all-wrong/40544
Comment by Me Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:30 pm
The senate race is too close to call on election night. On November 5th, the declared loser demands a recount. Boards of election are greatly relieved that there is no need to define chads and whether or not they are hanging. Ballots mailed in by those serving in the military determine the winner.
Comment by Aldyth Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:36 pm
Moon, I don’t do predictions. Ever.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:45 pm
–I think it’s interesting that pretty much all of the “surprise” election results predicted here are of Democrats winning–
It would be a surprise because in off-year elections the party in power usually gets whacked. When you add a bad economy, they get doubly whacked. Very few exceptions.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:49 pm
A tie in the house leading to Speaker Saviano
Comment by gfalkes Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:51 pm
Hoffman loses and the House goes 59-59.
Comment by Randolph Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:56 pm
Turnout will be higher than expected - both sides coming out. Dems lose some but not enough to make a big difference, locally or nationally.
Comment by justbabs Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:57 pm
Rich
I have a great deal of respect for your insight and political knowledge. Why don’t you put your predictions on a piece of paper and then share them with us after the election.
You could give all of us some idea as to why you thought the election turned out the way it did.You could also fill us in on why some of your predictions, if that is the case, did not happen. It would be truly enlightning.
Comment by MOON Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 2:58 pm
Moon, as I’ve told others, reporters shouldn’t predict. Too tempting to prove you’re right by tubing the person you predicted you would lose. Notice that on football games the announcers never offer up their predictions. Imprudent.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 3:01 pm
Deena Daily ousts Ron Stephens in Illinois House District 102.
Comment by Southern Illinois Democrat Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 3:01 pm
Rich Whitney unexpectedly wins the governors race. The win is so unexpected that he and his wife immediately leave their bridge game with their neighbors so he can tell the media he only meant to be a protest vote.
Comment by Richard Afflis Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 3:04 pm
Rich -
The flipside of that is journalists trying so hard to distinguish themselves and prove their smarter than the rest of the Pack that they just make absurd predictions.
My favorite was Steve Neal writing “Durkin Could Give Durbin a Run for His Money.”
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 3:07 pm
Isaac Hayes defeats JJJ.
Comment by Katie Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 3:08 pm
Control of the Illinois US Congressional delegation flips to Republican (Currently 2-Senate, 12-House are Democrats).
Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 3:11 pm
YDD, that’s yet another reason to avoid predictions. I already feel like an idiot, I don’t need to prove it.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 3:12 pm
I still think Durbins ad campaign against Durkin with the little kids spelling his name was pure genious.
Comment by Ghost Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 3:19 pm
The amount of money spent.
Comment by Dead Head Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 3:31 pm
A write-in victory for “Meh.”
Comment by Soccermom Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 3:46 pm
Rich Whitey wins the election….
Comment by Ghost Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 3:56 pm
I should make up some Rich Whitey for Governor t-shirts….
Comment by Ghost Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 3:59 pm
===I still think Durbins ad campaign against Durkin with the little kids spelling his name was pure genious. ===
Thanks Ghost. That was my daughter in that commercial.
(and Steve Neal hated Durbin. So Rich was correct that he was just predicting Durkin to make it a close race just to help him)
Comment by Been There Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 4:01 pm
You have a star on your hands
Comment by Ghost Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 4:04 pm
Edgar does NOT comment on the election results
Comment by waitress practicing politics... Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 4:17 pm
The World Series winner, in a shocking revelation, turns out to be the Cubs wearing another team’s uniform.
Comment by What planent is from again? Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 4:35 pm
Giannoulias wins to finish Roland Burris’ term…but Kirk wins the full term.
Or vice-versa…
Comment by Stunod Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 4:52 pm
The Dems win everything except the comptrollers office, retain firm control in the House and Senate. Four more years like the last 2.
Comment by Too Too Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 5:35 pm
Nixon’s Silent Majority shows up at the polls and it’s all over except the celebrating by a half hour after the polls close …
Comment by Retired Non-Union Guy Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 5:45 pm
Junkas defeats McCarthy in the 37th
Comment by Quinn T. Sential Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 5:52 pm
Rich, Kilbride has used the shady Vandermyde to hijack an NRA endorsement and has tricked some pro-life groups into supporting him when everyone knows he is an automatic 4th vote on a Dem redistricting map which would cripple the pro-life and pro-gun causes for 10 years. Notwithstanding all that the good guys are going to stop him from another term. But it’s exhausting work running around 21 counties.
Comment by Jon Zahm Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 6:06 pm
Judy’s back…and FAR more easily than expected, this time in the Comptroller’s Office. On the two “Biggies,” no big mid-term sweep for the “party out of power” here in Illinois. Rather, yes, Quinn pulls it out in a squeaker, (after all, “We KNOW this guy” the Undecideds decide, particularly Undecided Dems and Independents, and, believe it or not, CLINTON will help him more than Obama as well as one, final “knock it out of the park” appeal Ad) BUT the “G Man” is not so lucky and’ll be shoppin’ for a new Bank to buy instead (question is–will the Feds let him)??
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 6:32 pm
First contact. Oh wait, you meant election surprises?
Comment by Squideshi Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 7:36 pm
68
Comment by Cal Skinner Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 8:56 pm
Henry Potter wins. George Bailey is arrested for embezzlement. Clarence turns out to be Dorian Gray. Finally, the four horsemen arrive to close the deal.
Comment by Shellouise Saturday, Oct 23, 10 @ 12:14 am
That the Sun will actually rise the day after the election…
Comment by Siyotanka Saturday, Oct 23, 10 @ 10:20 am