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* David Ormsby noted something interesting about yesterday’s Rasmussen poll. While Rasmussen has found that the number of self-identified tea party movement members is dropping nationally - to 17 percent in early October from 24 percent in April - it’s rising fast in Illinois…
According to… a March 8, 2010 Rasmussen Reports survey, 13% of Illinois voters identified themselves as members of the Tea Party movement, in contrast with a new survey on October 26 by the pollster which now identifies 22% of Illinois voters as part of the movement—a 75% increase. […]
In Illinois, only the precipitous drop among the 18-29 age demographic tracks the national numbers. In the March 8 survey, 21% of Illinois 18-29 voters self-identified as Tea Party members, while only 6% did so in the October 26 poll, a 71.4% drop.
However, Illinois women who claimed Tea Party membership spiked from 10% in March to 18% in October, an 80% increase. Self-identified men increased the protest movement’s ranks from 17% to 26%, a 52.9% jump.
* According to Public Policy Polling, the likely Illinois electorate is no more Democratic than it was in August, suggesting that there is no Democratic interest surge here…
In a couple of other key states though Democrats aren’t showing any increased interest and in some cases could even be sliding backward. The likely electorate in Illinois in August was Obama +9 and when we polled there last weekend it was still Obama +9. Usually for a Republican to win in a blue state like Illinois they would need a massive advantage with independents and to win over a fair number of Democrats. Mark Kirk and Bill Brady are doing neither of those things but still in a position to win because of what’s likely to be a massive drop in Democratic turnout in the state.
* The Right is certainly being stirred up here by shows like Fox & Friends, which told at least two blatant lies today…
The story is about how Cook County Jail inmates are suppposedly “taking priority” over soldiers. “Felons vote, soldiers don’t… at least, that seems to be the attitude in Cook County, Illinois,” said the show’s guest, Quinn Hillyer of the Washington Times.
The segment delved into the 2600 ballots that were allegedly delivered to jail inmates, which the show claimed, is the same number of ballots that were sent late to soldiers serving overseas “from that area.”
Actually, Cook County and Chicago sent overseas absentee ballots on time. Chicago’s board of elections sent the overseas applications two weeks ahead of the federal deadline.
They also claim on the Fox show that the city’s board “hand-delivered” ballots to inmates at the county jail. “It’s awful,” said Hillyer, who also claimed that “inmates don’t even have to request the ballots.”
Actually, no. From the city’s election board…
A ballot is delivered to a detainee only if we receive an absentee application from a valid registered voter who is not yet convicted – under the standard of innocent until proven guilty. If the application is from someone who is convicted between the date they requested the ballot and election day, that sealed ballot, whether or not it’s from a registered voter, is not allowed into the count. Through [October 20th], there were 1,373 applications. [Emphasis added.]
So, to sum up: Inmates have to request the ballots. Only those who aren’t convicted are sent ballots. And soldiers received their ballots ahead of schedule. Other than that, the show was quite accurate. Except, there was no other than that.
* Speaking of stirring people up, blood always runs hot this time of year. But there’s hot and then there’s boiling…
* The organizer’s goal is to convince people to work precincts for Bill Brady’s campaign…
BILL BRADY NEEDS 400,000-450,000 VOTES Cook County aka Liberal Hell, and if you think the tea party princess is going to magically sprinkle winning tea leaves on him to win, without your help… Well, you are wrong.
Mike Madigan will have 500 foot soldiers out in Worth Township and the 19th Ward protecting his home front this weekend. This. Is. Dangerous.
Plus, that lunatic, Toni Periwinkle, has earmarked $400,000-$450,000 to defeat conservatives on the Southwest Side. She has also promised to round up members of the Purple Army, members of SEIU! I needn’t explain that just because these people are not wearing Brown shirts doesn’t make them any different than their brothers and sisters from decades ago.
They have been flooding the Southwest Side and we need to defeat them.
If we lose, call the movers because we won’t have a prayer.
* Related…
* Green: Where Quinn must get votes to eke out victory over Brady: Quinn must also narrowly win suburban Cook County; get beat by fewer than 125,000 votes in the collar counties, and get trounced by fewer than 200,000 votes Downstate. Key to Quinn losing the collars and Downstate by less than expected margins will likely be the success in these regions of Whitney, who is again running for governor on the Green Party ticket, and independent candidate Scott Lee Cohen.Brady, on the other hand, wins if the Chicago turnout is not robust and he is able to hold Quinn’s winning margin there to 375,000 votes, while breaking even in suburban Cook County. But he must also win the collar counties by 150,000 votes and totally demolish Quinn Downstate, with a margin of at least 250,000 votes.And unlike the Quinn scenario, Brady must minimize the vote for Whitney and Cohen in his base — the five collar counties and Downstate.
* Brady receives warm welcome at Tea Party rally
* Governors rally for Brady, Obama stumps for Dems
* Party Like It’s 1994
* McQueary: Homer Glen Tea Party should scare Dems
* Rove’s group ramping up ad buys in target races
* Abortion rights group attacks Brady in ad
* Sweeny: Durbin predicts Democrats will hold Senate
* Brady, Quinn miles apart on health care overhaul
* Democrats: ‘If We’re Gonna Lose, Let’s Go Down Running Away From Every Legislative Accomplishment We’ve Made’
* Republican tracker follows Illinois Governor Pat Quinn to Moline
* Which Races Could Latinos Decide on Tuesday?
* At ISU, third-party governor candidates blast two-party system
* Scott Lee Cohen Picks Up Endorsement
* The Conversation: Independents’ Impact on 2010 Elections
* Famous dad gives Sheila Simon inroad with elderly Aurorans
* VIDEO: Barbour, Jindal and McDonnell push Brady
* VIDEO: URF President on Fox News
* VIDEO: Colonel North tributes U.S. troops at Illinois Family Institute fundraiser
* VIDEO: Jason Plummer becomes punch line for Leno
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 2:36 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: *** UPDATED x3 - WSIL SAYS THEY DIDN’T PULL BRADY AD - BRADY CAMPAIGN EXPLAINS, DENIES - Quinn claims Brady attack ad pulled for falsehoods *** Bill Brady ads are pulled from Chicago TV and radio over unpaid bills
Next Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
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Reading that Tea Party flier, I hear the voice of Walter in “The Big Lebowski.”
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 2:46 pm
“Toni Periwinkle”?
Comment by enn Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 2:55 pm
Rich, some additional information on the Rasmussen poll you reference.
Friday, October 08, 2010
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say they are Tea Party members or have close friends or family members who are part of the movement.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 17% describe themselves as members of the Tea Party, up four points from late August. Twelve percent (12%) more say they are not members themselves but have friends or family who are involved in the small government, anti-tax movement.
Just after Democrats in Congress passed the national health care bill in late March, 24% of voters said they were Tea Party members, with 10% more saying they had close friends or family members who were participants.
Unchanged from the previous survey are the 60% who now say they have no ties to the Tea Party, but that’s down from 69% in May. Eleven percent (11%) are not sure.
Comment by Truth Seeker Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 3:02 pm
I have sympathy for Illinois reporters who are getting what texas reporters got in the bush years and arkansas reporters got in the clinto years only times 10000 with every conservative in the country making illinois ground zero for their conspiracy theory.
What I don’t have sympathy for is the clerks that deal with these voter issues. Number 1 because they have nothing else to do every 2-4 years than this and because this is one task that doesn’t really change. Their websites are also awful, poorly presented and take a long time to count votes.
This veteran voter thing might be a good law for governor brady or whoever takes over next year to address pronto.
Comment by shore Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 3:03 pm
fyi, the tea party nut who sent the flyer comparing SEIU people to Hitler’s Brown Shirts is on the payroll of Bill Brady’s campaign. It’s not a big secret.
Comment by too obvious Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 3:11 pm
The Tea Party is the party of “Angry White Christians” that bear striking similarities to white southerners in the antebellum and Civil War-era American South: http://www.baptisthistory.org/bhhs/bsb/bsb2010_10.html#first%20story
Comment by Bruce Gourley Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 3:12 pm
Even more Tea Party Polling
PJTV Tracking Study of 1000 Likely Voters
Conducted October 24, 2010 - By Pulse Opinion Research
Copyright (c) 2010 PJTV
Given your current knowledge of the Tea Party Movement and their positions on the issues, would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the Tea Party Movement?
28.84% Strongly support
25.32% Somewhat support
11.53% Somewhat oppose
31.86% Strongly oppose
2.45% Not sure
About your level of support for the Tea Party, have you publicly shown support for the Tea Party Movement by speaking openly about it or is your support for the Tea Party Movement a private matter? (Asked only of those who support the Tea Party movement)
38.29% You publicly support the Tea Party Movement
50.75% You support the Tea Party Movement privately
10.96% Not sure
Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party Movement or do have any close friends or family members who are part of the Tea Party Movement?
16.14% You are a Member of Tea Party
13.87% You are not member of the Tea Party but have friends or family who are
60.99% You have no ties to the Tea Party
9.00% Not sure
How likely are you to vote for a candidate for Congress who the Tea Party Movement supports?
25.94% Very likely
21.61% Somewhat likely
13.66% Not very likely
28.62% Not at all likely
10.18% Not sure
Special Question for this Week
News analyst Juan Williams recently said, “when I get on the plane, I got to tell you, if I see people who are in Muslim garb and I think, you know, they are identifying themselves first and foremost as Muslims, I get worried. I get nervous.” As a result he was fired by National Public Radio. He was then hired by Fox News. How strongly do you agree with the statement, “I approve of National Public Radio’s decision to fire Juan Williams.”?
12.40% Strongly Agree
10.06% Somewhat Agree
18.43% Somewhat Disagree
51.70% Strongly Disagree
7.41% Not Sure
In the wake of Juan Williams firing by National Public Radio, some people are calling for NPR’s public funding to be reduced. How strongly do you agree that National Public Radio’s public funding should be reduced?
36.73% Strongly Agree
11.53% Somewhat Agree
12.52% Somewhat Disagree
29.91% Strongly Disagree
9.31% Not Sure
NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence
Comment by Truth Seeker Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 3:15 pm
Truth Seeker, didn’t you omit a question from that poll:
About your level of understanding the issues, which of the following news sources do you watch/listen to the most:
FOX News: 100%
Rush Limbaugh: 100%
Local newspapers: 12%
Washington Times: 88%
New York Times: 1%
NPR: 0%
PBS: 0%
Seriously, who are these people? The Juan Williams questions reveal a lot about the pollster’s intentions in crafting this “survey.” I’d be very careful of using this poll to draw any conclusions or extrapolate anything meaningful about the larger public.
Note: I have a 95% level of confidence that this poll oversampled idiots.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 3:27 pm
47th,
I’ve emailed the cross tabs of the poll Truth Seeker quoted, we’ll let Rich determine if the sampling is off base.
P.S. I already know the answer…
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 3:58 pm
From the Tea Party Flyer
===JOIN US FOR THE BIG VICTORY PARTY
Please join us any time after 6:30 p.m., at the Rusty Nail, 5763 W. 95th Street, in Oak Lawn. There will be pizza, junk food served, and a cash bar.====
Somebody tell Toby Trimmer that one of his, long ago, favorite bars to sing Joe Cocker on Karaoke nite is being hijacked by the GOP and Teabaggers.
Comment by Been There Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 4:17 pm
150 years or so ago the tea party was called the Know Nothing party. The only change is the name.
Comment by DuPage Dave Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 4:42 pm
These guys are flako’s. But an interesting column by Peggy Noonan in last Monday’s WSJ about the ‘tea party’. must read.
Comment by Park Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 6:18 pm
–Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say they are Tea Party members or have close friends or family members who are part of the movement.–
If you read the recent series from the Washington Post, which busted its hump trying to interview every self-identified Tea Party group in the country, you’ll be frustrated and confused.
The only unifying concept among a very diverse group — many sincere, some wacko, and others, like Armey and the Koch boys, profoundly cynical — is that they’re angry about the bad economy and deficit spending. Yeah, well, join the club. Like the man said, stuff happens and you can never buy too much beer.
But what’s the point, after the initial anger and the shallow emotionalism? Do they think they can indulge their anger without getting down to sober, kitchen table problem-solving?
The wisest thing my old man ever told me was “don’t come to me with problems, come to me with solutions.” In other words, whatever the issue, get over it and make it work. You’re in for the long haul. The idea that your problems are unique or unbearable is nothing but vanity.
Cowboy up, Tea Party. Bring me a Bob Gibson fastball from Missouri and Show Me. Otherwise, it’s just weak whining.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 6:53 pm
When my neighbors march, I do not insult them.
When they go to the polls to vote, I do not insult them.
They may hold differing opinions, but I trust that their actions are sincere and honest. I don’t consider my neighbors beneath me. I don’t consider them idiots. I don’t consider them misinformed. I just don’t.
I believe in diversity. I do not believe in insulting political groups when they are motivated to take action in the ballot box. I have seen and read enough history to know that whatever happens, we end up making things work out when we all participate.
Political forces come and go. Some of them make an impact, and others do not. But they happen for a reason.
Consequentially, over the past year, I have been so frustrated reading all the insults about these Tea Parties. Had the Democrats shown any respect for them, they would not be losing their power Tuesday. Had they simply listened, the Democrats would have recognized the similarities they had with the Tea Partiers, and have really help neutralize them politically.
Instead, I have been reading hundred of bloviating political players forgetting the first rule of democratic politics - the guy with the most votes wins. I have watched arrogant insulting close minded people so convinced of their own superiority, they simply cannot tolerate being told that the political direction they wish to take isn’t acceptable to people they consider less intelligent than they.
This has been happening for over 20 years. Al Gore had a huge problem with this. Obama has a huge problem with this. Pelosi and Reid are downright suicidal politically over this.
And they are all going to go down the tubes next Tuesday, because they stopped listening respectfully to the folks with the votes. While they spoke about diversity, and spoke about bipartisanship, and spoke about caring for everyone - their actions clearly demonstrate the opposite.
So - out they go, and good riddance!
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 6:55 pm
–When my neighbors march, I do not insult them.
When they go to the polls to vote, I do not insult them.–
Dude, are you kidding? Read what you write. You have a printed record, brother.
The other day, you wanted to “outlaw and fine out of existence” the Democratic Party because Alexi, or someone who likes him, put out that Labno mailer. At the most, that was a lame dirty trick (not really), but you wanted to bring down totalitarian punishment.
Not the words of a 1st Amendment supporter or one who supports liberty.
You regularly question the patriotism of those who don’t agree with you. You claim to be a Democrat to use as a shield to rip them. You pay lip service to anarchic, laissez faire capitalism from a comfy perch in a union, state job. Get real and get over yourself.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 7:39 pm
–150 years or so ago the tea party was called the Know Nothing party. The only change is the name.–
DD, I don’t think that’s accurate.
The Know-Nothings, despite their attempts at secrecy, were clearly anti-Catholic, which translated in their time to hatred of Irish and German immigrants.
That’s what scared them back in the 1850s (thank God we got rid of all those Irish, and Germans and Catholics; they would have wrecked everything!).
The Tea Party folks are scared, too. Most are really scared over the economy, some use that fear to advance their bigotries, some use that fear to further their financial interests, like the Koch Bros. (can you believe that, by the way? the Koch Bros?; A Shanda Fer Die Goy!).
When things get better, like they inevitably wiil, they’ll fade away and we’ll put them on the shelf like Father Coughlin and the Militia Movement.
Good and bad, warts and all, American history has been driven by optimism and progress and has always triumphed over gloom and doom. Plenty of bumps along the road, but it’s been a pretty sweet ride.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 8:01 pm
=Good and bad, warts and all, American history has been driven by optimism and progress and has always triumphed over gloom and doom. Plenty of bumps along the road, but it’s been a pretty sweet ride. =
Awww….word…that was truly beautiful.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 8:08 pm
Except maybe for the “warts” part. Maybe a different word, word?
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 8:09 pm
===They may hold differing opinions, but I trust that their actions are sincere and honest. I don’t consider my neighbors beneath me. I don’t consider them idiots. I don’t consider them misinformed. I just don’t.===
VM, I’ve never met your neighbors, and if I did I assure you I wouldn’t insult them. But if I had a neighbor that thought the web page above was perfectly legitimate political discourse, I’d strongly disagree. I’d probably move too, since that sort of violent imagery kind of scares me. Lock and load? Take them out? Only an idiot would think that’s a way to discuss politics in this country. If you don’t like it, too bad.
And for a pollster to include the Juan Williams questions, and for commenters to cut and paste it here in a lame attempt to make some kind of larger statement about — what? I’m not sure what they were trying to say.
Did this pollster ask in another survey about Jimmy the Greek, or any of the dozens of other media personalities who got fired for saying/doing stupid things? I doubt it. But this is clearly an attempt by the pollster to add to the meme that it’s OK to single out Muslim Americans, that all Muslims are terrorists. The fake outrage of FOX News and others who’ve demogogued this Juan Williams thing are beneath contempt. What FOX News is doing is some sort of weird, bizarro political correctness. It’s disgusting.
Idiots is the proper term. And if my neighbor is an idiot, that’s one thing. If his idiotic actions threaten violence or reveal open bigotry, then yeah, I wouldn’t hesitate to insult him. Sometimes people are wrong. Sometimes well meaning people are wrong. Calling them out for being wrong isn’t insulting.
You might find it perfectly fine to march in line and not offend anyone. That doesn’t say much for you, other than you’re too cowardly to speak out and stand up for something that isn’t popular.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 10:00 pm
It cracks me up, all these people hypothesizing about the tea party. Unbiased opinions, of course. I think a lot more vile nonsense is spewed about the tea party then I’ve heard spoken at one.
Comment by Liandro Friday, Oct 29, 10 @ 12:02 am
Does anybody else find it odd that the Tea Party flier uses soldiers in Red Coats? I’m not a history major, but I seem to recall that the original Tea Partiers and red-coated soldiers were less than simpatico.
Comment by duck duck goose Friday, Oct 29, 10 @ 8:40 am
When I was fifty-two
It was a very weird year
It was a very weird year of Tea party girls
And twisted extremes
With their right wing dreams
They didn’t have a clue
When I was fifty-two
But now the days are short
We’re in the autumn of the years
And now I think of this place
As Wonder Bread turned green from mold
To rocks from gold
We were gripped by fear
It was a very weird year….
Tom Degan, age 52
http://www.tomdegan.blogspot.com
Comment by Tom Degan Friday, Oct 29, 10 @ 9:00 am