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* TPM looked at the difference between US Senate polls…
When only Giannoulias and Kirk are involved, the TPM Poll Average gives the edge to Giannoulias, 42.4-41.8
When Jones is added to the mix, Kirk gets the edge in the TPM Poll Average, 44.6-42.0-4.8
With all four candidates, the TPM Poll Average swings once again to Giannoulias, who barely leads over Kirk 40.4-39.7. Jones comes in at 5.0, with Labno at 3.6
Seven polls have tested just the two top candidates since August, ten have asked about just three of the candidates and twelve have asked about all four.
* However, five of those 12 polls which tested all four contestants are Democratic candidate polls (one was taken for the DGA and included Giannoulias). Take those out and you’ve got a 2.5-point average lead for Kirk…
So, go figure.
* Well, 538 actually did the figuring and came up with a significant advantage for Kirk…
But the likely election results are still very close…
Nate has Bill Brady’s chances of beating Gov. Pat Quinn at 76.2 percent, by the way.
* Meanwhile, some outlets may play this up, but I really don’t think it’s all that newsworthy…
The state’s highest ranking Republican, Christine Radogno, the GOP leader in the Illinois Senate, tells WLS a tax increase most certainly wouldn’t happen any time soon after the election, but then she left the door open.
“I’ve never been one to say no, never on any kind of a tax increase. And there are others that believe absolutely under any circumstances, no. But I think we need to wait and see. I’m willing to be convinced we don’t need a tax increase,” Radogno said.
From February 23rd of 2009…
While calling for a look first at cutting state programs, both Radogno and Cross said Monday that spending cuts alone can’t fix the problem, which threatens education and health-care funding.
Many expect Quinn, a Chicago Democrat, to propose tax hikes, perhaps even an income tax increase, in his budget plans set to be delivered March 18.
Radogno and Cross bristle at the notion.
“A major tax increase is not the first place to look,” Radogno said. But they concede more tax dollars are needed.
From Greg Hinz today…
But her timing is pretty awkward for Mr. Brady, who’s having lots of trouble convincing lots of voters that his unspecified spending cuts add up to a balanced budget.
Ms. Radogno’s comments won’t help. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn has called for an increase.
That’s true. But, other than that, this is nothing new at all.
*** UPDATE *** From the Quinn campaign…
“Today, the Illinois Senate’s GOP leader Christine Radogno revealed that Republicans are talking about a tax increase.
‘I’m willing to be convinced we don’t need a tax increase,’ Radogno said.
Sen. Brady has said for months we’ll have to wait until after Election Day to see his budget plan—did Sen. Radogno—his leader in the Senate—just reveal it? Apparently, she didn’t get the memo: the GOP is isn’t planning on revealing their secret tax increase plan until AFTER the election—just as Gov. Edgar and Gov. Thompson did.
What does it mean when Sen. Brady’s leader in the Senate, and one of his biggest allies, raises doubts about his position on one of this election’s biggest issues?”
-Mica Matsoff, campaign spokesperson
* From the Brady campaign…
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady today released the following statement in response to eleventh hour assertions about future tax increases in Illinois:
“Despite Pat Quinn’s desperate political assertions and wishful thinking, let there be no mistake – a Brady Administration will not raise taxes,” said Brady. “Period.”
“A Brady administration will force state government to live within its means, cut taxes, and raise long term revenue by enacting pro-growth economic policies that help create real jobs for families across Illinois.”
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 29, 10 @ 1:51 pm
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“I’ve never been one to say no, never on any kind of a tax increase.”
Except her 1997 vote to kill Gov. Edgar’s education funding income tax increase (and property tax reduction) in Senate committee. I’m sure the million Pate dropped in her race had nothing to do with freshman senator Radogno’s vote then.
Glad to hear she’s suddenly open to revenue reform and protecting schools.
Comment by Piling on Friday, Oct 29, 10 @ 2:03 pm
Those polls look about right. What I think may effect them, but won’t change the final results, is how badly conservatives want to win and won’t break from Kirk to Labno, especially if they think they might appear to have been duped by the Democrats to vote for the Libertarian.
I think it will be Kirk by 4 percent and Bady by 10 percent. The normal bias favoring the Demcrats in Illinois is being offset by turn out.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Oct 29, 10 @ 2:04 pm
The ladies vote should be able to carry the day for Giannoulias which only leaves Quinn to pull off an upset. C’mon Obama!
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Friday, Oct 29, 10 @ 2:22 pm
Guess we’re going to have to have an election to sort out the race for U.S. Senate.
May the best candidate win.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Oct 29, 10 @ 2:23 pm