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*** UPDATE 1 *** You can find Illinois exit polling data by clicking here when the polls close at 7.
*** UPDATE 2 *** The White House is telling people that Drudge’s US Senate result is wrong. They claim it’s “in the margin.” Drudge has Kirk up by 6. I’ve taken down his result while I check.
*** UPDATE 3 *** OK, from what I can gather, Drudge was using the first round of exit polls. The second round, combined with the first round, shows Kirk up by 3. We’re now waiting on Round 3.
*** UPDATE 4 *** More reason to distrust even that second round. From a commenter…
The early votes and mail votes will be counted after today’s votes, which will skew any such exit polling numbers
Keep in mind that we have two weekend polls showing that the Democrats did better with people who’ve already voted.
* Normal turnout everywhere? So says the state board…
“Most of it seems to be what we’ve expected,’’ says Rupert Borgsmiller of the Illinois State Board of Elections. “We haven’t heard of any overwhelming numbers anywhere. You certainly can’t blame it on the weather.” […]
In the Metro East, election officials are predicting their normal off-year turnouts. Madison County Clerk Mark Von Nida said absentee and early voting figures as of Monday indicated the county will about 40 percent (or about 80,000 votes), which is considered normal for an off-year election.
* If Chicago and Cook County have a normal turnout and aren’t depressed by the national mood, it could be because of people like this…
All those nasty TV ads beating up on Democrats and the unfavorable news coverage of the tea partiers was bound to keep them motivated.
* The AP reports on national exit polling…
About a third say their household suffered a job loss in the past two years, but that didn’t give a clear direction to their voting. They divided over which party to support in Tuesday’s House races.
About four in 10 say they are worse off financially than they were two years ago. More than 80 percent said they were worried about the direction of the economy over the next year.
Only about a quarter of voters in Tuesday’s House races blamed Obama for the nation’s economic troubles. But about half think Obama’s policies will hurt the country.
About four out of 10 voters said they support the tea party movement, and they overwhelmingly voted Republican.
A Word Of Advice On Leaked Exit Polls
You’re going to start to see them. A lot of them. Here in Studio 47 at the CBS Broadcast Center in New York, I’m looking at all of them right now, and I can tell you that there is NOT much you can say about the major questions of the night based on the data we have now. That’s because, for the most part, the third wave of numbers, which incorporates a new tranche of voters, hasn’t been processed. Do not believe your eyes… yet. This blog will neither leak nor refer to exit polls until polls in states are closed.
* Attorney General Lisa Madigan sent out an advisory to local election authorities today warning them to follow the law. Apparently, the AG’s office was worried that people would bring their completed absentee ballots to the polls (remember that problem with the Democrats’ coordinated committee mailing out the ballot apps late?) or don’t bring their ballots ballots and could be told that they need to vote with a provisional ballot. State law says they can vote with their completed absentees, and if they don’t have one they can sign an affidavit and vote like everybody else. Click here to read Madigan’s letter.
I asked the AG’s office for more information about how widespread this problem is. They said they had a handful of calls, did the research and decided to put out an advisory.
Nicely, um, coordinated.
* A Kane County blogger tried to vote without a photo ID today and the polling judges insisted he needed one. After a long rigmarole, he was finally allowed to vote, but claims that this is happening in more than just his precinct…
Foster campaign was sending an attorney over to that polling place. I advised them that they just might have a county-wide problem, since there was general agreement at that polling place that they had all been trained in this fictitious new federal law.
They thanked me, called me back again to say they had a subsequent complaint of the same problem from another polling place, also in Kane County, but in another community.
* The President gets into the act…
President Obama was interviewed on Chicago hip hop station WGCI Tuesday morning, urging young voters to get out to the polls.
In an interview with WGCI’s Loni Swain, Obama explained how important Tuesday’s election was to him, and how it will effect the lives of young people in Chicago and beyond.
“The truth of the matter is that even though we had 30,000 people come to the [Chicago] rally, there are a lot of folks out there who still haven’t got the message that this is a really important election,” Obama said. “Making sure that folks have health care when they need it, making sure that young people are able to get college scholarships, all those things that we’ve worked on so hard for the last couple years are at stake, and the key is going to be everybody turning out to vote.”
* Zorn doubles down on his Brady prediction…
Read the Quincy Herald-Whig endorsement in the governor’s race. It’s well researched, serious, dispassionate. The editorialist basically praises the job Gov. Pat Quinn did under awful circumstances, eviscerates Brady’s vague, hollow “plans,” notes disagreement with his positions on social issues, then shrugs and says:
Brady is being endorsed because we cannot change the direction of this state without a change in leadership.And this is what I predict at least a plurality if not a majority of voters are going to tell us today: They’re not happy with the way Illinois’ ship of state is listing and heading for the rocks, so it’s time to give someone else a chance to grab the helm.
* What? No big jobs announcement tomorrow? Hmmm…
* Here’s your opportunity to give us your final precinct reports. What’s going on out there? Some of us are in bubbles and need to know. Thanks much for all you do!
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:14 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
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From our small conservative southern Illinois county, 13000 voters.
I just got off the phone with our County Clerk.
With the new numbers just gathered, her prediction is high 20s to low 30s percent for total turn out.
Comment by (618) Democrat Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:21 pm
may I suggest an open thread for national politics. A seperate open thread for state politics and if you can do it, put the feeds from tv stations so we can just plant ourselves here and not have to have other windows open for chicago tv stations.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:25 pm
From Waukegan, I voted after work (3:30), number displayed by my voting machine was pretty high. Up here we have many who are angry, but they’re not Tea Party members. They are the working poor, teachers, minorities, worried about losing state benefits. I’ve heard on the news Lake County voting is high. Can’t tell who it benefits more.
Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:33 pm
I served as a pollwatcher for 6 hours in my little south-central illinois county. My precienct, which has 860 registered voters (accordign to the election judges), had 424 in person voters as of 3:00 p.m., and I think the rumour is that this precienct had 91 absentee/early voters. So, my precienct should be close to 70 percent voter turnout.
however, my county is pretty conservative. To illustrated, alan keyes got over 66 percent in 2004.
Comment by cuban pilot Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:39 pm
Rememver to divide the number displayed in half (if you do paper ballots). Because you have each voter putting in two ballots.
Comment by ok Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:41 pm
Looks like an average off-year turnout afterall. Things are so ginned up with cable news and internet emotion that a huge turnout was not only expected but seen as inevitable. Go figure.
Comment by DuPage Dave Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:44 pm
ok,
I don’t know what you mean, our voters only put in one ballot. Also, I am talkign about we had 424 receipts (i.e., that little thing that people sign before voting, that was where I cam up with my number). 2 ballots?
Comment by cuban pilot Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:44 pm
In cook county, because of about 100 judicial retentions, the ballot was 2 pages. Probably does not apply anywhere else
Comment by Anonymouse Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:47 pm
cuban pilot, there was a second ballot which contained a measure to allow voters to recall the governor. That ballot wasn’t given to voters in your precinct??
Comment by Anonymous ZZZ Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:49 pm
Hate exit polls but I’m still crossing my fingers. That would be huge in Illinois if that’s accurate.
Comment by A.B. Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:50 pm
anon at 5:47,
I forget. Of coarse, that leads to the question, “how long does it take for an old person” to complete that ballot in Cook?
In any event, this system with how we elect and keep judges, is way to akward. If there is ever another con. con., that should be at the top of the list of issues to be addressed.
Comment by cuban pilot Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:51 pm
Anonymous ZZZ,
Depends on what county you were in. In most, if not all of, the central Illinois ballots the admendment was on same ballot as all of the candidates
Comment by RMW Stanford Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:51 pm
We are up to 7 unsealed boxes in the 33rd. Movin on.
Comment by 42nd Ward Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:51 pm
After trying to foist the weakess slate ILGOP are hoping to win something tonitte so they don’t look at the bottom of the GOP barrell
Fire, Aim Ready
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:52 pm
Anon ZZZ,
No, that question was actually on the actual ballot with all the other contests. In fact, it was up first on our ballot.
Also, that reminds me. The biggest question asked by voters to election workers was about the “special” election for Senate. Several really smart and well informed people asked that question.
Comment by cuban pilot Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:54 pm
I was number 371 of 935 at 5 pm in my St. Clair county precinct (Belleville, Shiloh, Swansea area) All of the precincts in the building reported steady, but never heavy, traffic all day long.
On another note, I received an unusual robo-call over the weekend urging a no vote on ALL judicial retention votes in St. Clair county.
Comment by ElConquistador Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:54 pm
In Chicago’s 33 Ward, 1st precinct, turn-out was strong and Ald. Mell, who cruised by, reports strong turn-out through out the ward.
Comment by Louis XVI Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 5:57 pm
Kane County, Campton 7.
Overall turnout, no idea. All I know is that everybody working was pretty busy.
15 voting stations, plenty of parking, got there at 05:05 PM, all stations full up all the time, 7 people waiting for a station (already had their voting code), 7 besides myself waiting to get our “voting code”.
When I finally got to my voting station, there were 12 people after me waiting for a station, and 19 more people in lines getting their “voting codes”.
When I got done voting (couple of minutes at most), there were 16-17 people waiting for a voting machine, and at least another 2 dozen people in process of getting their “voting code”.
And with even more people coming in to vote…
In: 05:05 PM
Out: 05.42 PM
All in all, not too bad.
Comment by Judgment Day Is On The Way Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:04 pm
RMW Stanford and cuban pilot - yeah, I wasn’t even thinking about how all of the judges on the ballot in Cook County knocked the recall provision to a second ballot until I saw Anonymouse’s post.
And cuban pilot - as for how long it took to complete the ballot, it took me about 20 minutes.
Comment by Anonymous ZZZ Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:05 pm
Champaign County clerk’s office has begun turning away droves of students, no word so far as to why. A friend of mine was turned away and I personally called and complained and they admitted they had made a mistake. Definitely frustrating…
Comment by U of I student Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:06 pm
Not just the tea party — The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and their ilk don’t understand the meaning of “overkill” and think people are idiots and don’t get suspicious why these mostly-anonymous groups are spending so much money against the Dems.
Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:07 pm
cuban, the alternative of merit selection, also known as whoever madigan would choose, is not a good alternative either.
Comment by Anonymouse Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:08 pm
The video clip is somewhat predictable since the woman voter is from Lakeview (the Merlo library branch sign appears behind her). If the video camera was of a voter in the 41st Ward, the answer might have been different.
Comment by Honest Abe Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:10 pm
estimated 50 percent turnout as of 5pm in my cluster of precincts in the 48th as per poll workers I talked to.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:12 pm
Rich, why even release exit poll data when polls are still open? Just because cruddy Drudge is doing it?
Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:16 pm
I mean, you took the link down, but the report is still up.
Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:17 pm
So, the White House is now a Pollster?
Comment by TimB Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:17 pm
Drudge being wrong?! wouldn’t be the first time.
Comment by Jo Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:17 pm
Go easy on Drudge — he was the first to break the news about Obama’s running mate Evan Bayh.
Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:20 pm
===So, the White House is now a Pollster? ===
No, but they do have access to the AP tranches.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:22 pm
6pm count at Tinley Park church with six precincts…42%
A little last minute fun watching Hynes show up to do some electioneering…didn’t see what placards he was holding though
Comment by COPN Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:27 pm
The progressive fox seems more like a progressive ass. Why is it a big deal to have a photo id?
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:30 pm
With 45 minutes to go, my polling location on the far southwest side of Springfield had 60%.
Comment by Wally Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:33 pm
===Why is it a big deal to have a photo id? ===
Go read the law and report back, please.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:34 pm
So why is everyone freaking out over exit polling today? The early votes and mail votes will be counted after today’s votes, which will skew any such exit polling numbers?
In my precinct of 572 voters, 80 early voted (14%) and another 40 requested mail and/or absentee ballots. Of the 80 early voters, 62 were predictable Republican or Democratic voters according to our Voter Vault analysis. If half the mail ballots are returned, that means 18% of my precinct cannot be “exit polled” on election day, and the “Hard R” and “Hard D” voter numbers will be discounted.
Take a breath everyone. You’ll be getting actual numbers shortly.
Let’s pay attention to voter turn out in regions such as Chicago areas, suburban Cook, collar counties and downstate, and in areas where there are some hot local issues (Lake Bluff Park District Referendum, Recall of Trustee in Buffalo Grove are two in my region).
By the way, in my region, voter turn out on election appears higher than the last governor race, without factoring in the early votes. But then again, we also have a number of interesting local races that voters may be turning out for.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:45 pm
Anon at 608
you are right. However, this is such a major problem and these judges just have so much power. There really is no good way of doing it because the big-league politicians will then just control the selection process (err, merit selection).
However, I have an odd idea on judges. (this is my pie in the sky solution and completely off topic). Allow circuit court judges only one 10-year term. Further, put a minimum experience requirment of say 15 or 20 years as a member of the bar. This will eliminate some of the politics of judicial selection, and this will put mostly competent late 40 or early 50 year old attorneys on the bench who aren’t complete schmucks and/or major politicians. Just my stupid solution.
Comment by cuban pilot Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:54 pm
ditto to cuban pilot. also, make sure that judges actually have trial experience, cause, you know, they have to judge trials!
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:58 pm
Here we go….
Comment by Jo Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:59 pm
Change that to they have to run for reelection every 10 years and you have my vote. It would be better than retention and would not result in judges for life and their would still be accountability
Comment by Anonymouse Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 6:59 pm
Retired folk are tending Republican these days — it’s the 1950s generation, remember — and they’ll vote in the morning while everyone else is at work. So it’s natural that Kirk should do well on early polling I’d think.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 7:00 pm
Still,
With all the drama, isn’t this fun? This is way more enjoyable than x-mas? For most of the people on this blog, we have talked about this specific election for over 18 moths.
Christ, the primary was 9 months ago. Conceivably, you could have gotten your wife knocked up and had her shoot the baby out by now. If you did, your baby has a chance to be the gop lt. gov nominee in 2014.
Anyway, here in just a short period of time, we may know how this all turned out. I guess this is my cheessy way of saying, I love this.
Comment by cuban pilot Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 7:02 pm
My wife just got her absentee ballot request from “Election Headquarters” today. Somebody at HQ is doing a heck of a job.
I don’t know which is worse, the incompetent boobs who mailed it late, or the crack team at the US Postal Service who delivered it later.
She voted in person today, so no worries, but it was a fine waste of postage and printing. A good idea poorly executed, which could be the new slogan for the Democratic Party after tonight.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 7:06 pm
ow, according to the exit polling, Rich Whitey has 0% of Black voters voting for him
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 7:08 pm
47th ward, I can’t be the only Illinois Democrat annoyed/disappointed at the DNC funneling so much cash into Madigan’s coffers.
You know the Illinois Dems won’t put that money toward long-term campaign infrastructure or a better Web site or anything useful but stupid projects like this.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 7:10 pm
Reports from office holders are that half of Williamson County’s precincts needed additional ballots brought from the courthouse. Big sheriff and county commissioner races helped turnout.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 7:12 pm
hisgirl,
I’m in 100% agreement with you on the lack of a Democratic Party operation in Illinois, but this particular debacle was the brainchild of the coordinated campaign co-chaired by Durbin and Cullerton.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 7:16 pm
47th and hisgirl,
I don’t mean to rub it in. however, as a republican, this is the first time that I have been somewhat proud of the gop “ground game.” Regardless of what happens to Bill Brady, Steve Schoeffel is an unsung hero in my book.
Comment by cuban pilot Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 7:22 pm
Cuban Pilot
Speaking for myself, go ahead and rub it in good. I’d do the same if things were reversed. Congratulations on rebuilding the GOP in Illinois. As a Chicagoan, I hope the GOP does some party building here too. It’s ripe territory for you, especially with the mayoral coming up. To be perfectly frank, Daley was basicky a Republican anyway, so I think you have a good chance at gaining some traction here.
The Democratic Party in Illinois is and has always been a wholly-owned subsidiary of the House Democratic Campaign Organization. We’ll keep a majority in the House, but I wish my party would aim a bit higher. Congress matters to me, even if Madigan doesn’t care.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 7:30 pm
Hisgirl - the IL Coordinated Campaign is all Durbin.
Don’t blame Madigan for this one. While you’re all at it - can we please stop blaming everything on Madigan? There are enough problems and enough blame to go around, let’s make sure they all get their fair share. Thanks.
Comment by siriusly Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 7:32 pm
Take you 3 hours to answer the exit poll questions
Comment by Foster Brooks Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 7:53 pm
Chatham was crowded at its polling place at 11:30 today — county officials predict a 60 - 65% voter turnout. Probably good for Brady; still a Republican area.
Comment by Capitol View Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 8:20 pm
Tinley Park church with six precincts…two precints with minor malfunctions causing delay, but all others showing substantial leads for republican gov, us senate, and state house (McCarthy/Junkas) and senate (Crotty/Wojcik).
Of note, Berrios was third in each Assesor tally and Claypool led in all but one, which he was behind by only 6 votes.
Comment by COPN Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 8:23 pm
Illinois House, 112th District
14434 . . . Jay Hoffman (D)
15913 . . . Dwight Kay (R)
Another political politician bites the dust…not quite over, but close.
Comment by Roy Slade Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 9:55 pm