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* I am hearing this myself a lot these days from Republicans…
Sneed is told GOP gubernatorial hopeful Bill Brady got machine-gunned by suburban women voters deluged by direct mailings last week highlighting his “socially-right-wing-not-exactly-pro-female agenda,” according to a GOP source.
Personal PAC did a whole lot of mail, as did other groups. Gov. Pat Quinn doesn’t believe in direct mail, so they had to pick up the slack.
* So, is this true? Well, Brady vastly outperformed Judy Baar Topinka’s 2006 numbers in the collars, but he underperformed Mark Kirk’s percentages…
Kirk also did much better than Brady in suburban Cook County…
Brady Cook suburbs: 276,432 (40%-53%)
Kirk Cook suburbs: 303,758 (44%-52%)
Kirk received almost 14,000 more votes than Brady in Chicago as well.
* The fact that Kirk outperformed Brady in the suburbs and in the city is no huge surprise, since Kirk is a suburban moderate. But Brady’s campaign made the fatal error of thinking they could make up the difference Downstate. Check out these Downstate totals…
Brady Downstate: 832,006
Kirk Downstate: 827,140
Brady simply did not concentrate enough time and effort on the suburbs. He was also never able to assuage suburban women that he wasn’t a wingnut, as Peter Fitzgerald was able to do in 1998. Brady wouldn’t send a moderate message and it cost him dearly…
Just more than one-third of those casting ballots characterized themselves in exit polls as conservatives. Yet a greater proportion - more than two in five - said they were moderates, while one in five said they were liberals.
While almost three in five Kirk voters described themselves as conservatives, about two in five labeled themselves as moderates.
Even among supporters of the Tea Party movement, who overwhelmingly backed Kirk over Giannoulias, more than one-third described themselves as moderate or liberal.
Also, more than four in 10 voters identified with the Democratic Party, compared with just three in 10 who picked the GOP. And despite electing Kirk, Illinois voters did not show a preference for Republican control of the Senate.
* And for all you conservative folks who thought that Kirk wouldn’t play well Downstate, well, now you know how wrong you are.
Brady only received 7 more votes than Kirk in his home county of McLean. And his margin over Quinn was 259 votes less than Kirk’s margin over Giannoulias. Why? Third party and independent candidates.
Scott Lee Cohen spent big bucks and got 4 percent of the vote statewide. The other two third partiers received another 4 percent, for a total of 8 percent for the gubernatorial also-rans. In the US Senate race, the third party candidates received just 5 percent of the vote. That 3 percent was crucial. And it was more prominent in Chicago and the Cook suburbs, where third party and independent gubernatorial candidates received 8 percent while third party US Senate candiates received just 4 percent.
The Brady campaign could never figure out how to deal with Cohen, and his 4 percent really hurt them in that close race. What happened was that some people who couldn’t stand to vote for Quinn took a look at Brady and decided they couldn’t be with him, either, so they went with Cohen. I’m not really sure what they could’ve done, but they didn’t do anything and that was yet another major mistake.
* Now, there were other factors in this. Chicago’s turnout, for example. The superior Democratic ground game. Bigtime union involvement for Quinn. Etc. But Brady’s over-reliance on Downstate to carry the day and his refusal to spend more time and energy portraying himself as a moderate in the suburbs are both his fault. He couldn’t control the Democrats’ game. He could control his own.
…Adding… These exit poll results pretty much say it all…
Look at the difference in the female vote between the two candidates and the difference in how both genders voted for third party candidates. Brady was hurt both ways.
* Related…
* Officials Report Close To 52% Voter Turnout
* Wins For GOP Doesn’t Mean State Turning Red
* Illinois divided at polls
* Local party leaders mull GOP’s ‘phenomenal’ victories
* Southtown: Two years later, voters call for yet more change again
* Illinois Is GOP’s Only ‘Trophy’ Senate Win
* Kirk, Giannoulias Meet for “Beer Summit”
* Alexi and Mark have a beer at the Goat
* Kirk And Giannoulias Grab A Brew
* Kirk could be new senator by end of November
* Court order could expedite Kirk’s swearing in
* Kirk ready for first vote against Obama
* Kirk Victory Could Shift Senate’s Balance of Power in Lame Duck
* Sun-Times: Will the real Mark Kirk stand up for Illinois?
* Kirk supporters say it feels like decades since GOP has been able to celebrate
* If Kirk is Sworn In Early, Who Represents the 10th District?
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:09 am
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The other reason Brady didn’t do so well in his home county … A lot of us here *know* him.
Comment by ShadyBillBrady Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:13 am
Rich - Great take!
It’s funny, when you look at the numbers in their context, there really is no other way to interpret how things went down.
Thanks for the post and “dropping some knowledge” on us, like the kids say …
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:16 am
Thank you Personal PAC, and thank you Republican suburban Chicago women!
Comment by Amalia Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:18 am
Man… look at the Lake County margin that seperates Kirk and Brady… 7 points!
Comment by ChrisChicago82-Independent Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:19 am
Also I wonder what impact the ‘didn’t pay taxes’ argument had on the Brady-Kirk numbers.
You ended up having the guy in a different race from a different party sort of making your argument for you.
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:22 am
As a democrat who was involved in electing Blagojevich twice, I offer my apologies to Governor Quinn and his campaign team. I questioned a lot of what they were doing throughout the campaign, and I felt like they were on the verge of losing to a very weak republican. I couldnt understand why more wasnt being dont to bring the base home, and I upset that more wasnt done to keep Cohen off of the ballot since I thought he would hurt Quinn in the AA community. I was critical of the campaign to other democratic operatives, and my message may, at times, have fueled some of the criticism of te governor from Democrats. I think I felt the way many democrats not working on the campaign felt, and I now understand more about the criticisms I heard while working on the blago campaign that I often dismissed. When working on the campaign, its important to hear what others are saying, but it is equally important to execute your strategy. You have to be flexible enough to adjust strategy when the criticisms become deafening, but, overall, you have to trust your gut and plow ahead. I have a whole new respect for Governor Quinn, and I wish him and his team all the best.
Comment by anon Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:23 am
Rich,
Brady was a flawed candidate but this came down to organization and the Dems had a much better get out the vote effort. The one good thing the GOP can take from this is any other time over the last 20 years the Dems would beat the GOP by 5pts in a race between two bad candidates.
Comment by Fed up Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:24 am
I looked at Cook County Townships and compared the Kirk and Brady votes, and the difference which I called Kirk-NOT-Brady voters and the variance greatest in what I consider the old liberal townships: Oak Park, Evanston, Niles, New Trier (take a look http://baarswestside.blogspot.com/2010/11/those-kirk-quinn-voters.html ) That strikes me as Liberal Good-Government types who weren’t about to vote “Mob Banker”, but stuck with the traditional and familiar Good-Guv Reformer Pat Quinn. I agree Brady didn’t do enough here, but maybe part of what he should have done was play up the Quinn-Blagojevich connections and dispell some of that Quinn Good-Gov image.
Comment by Bill Baar Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:24 am
I don’t know how much more Brady could have done in the suburbs, without appearing dishonest. He did try to send out a message that social issues would not be at the top of his agenda, but his social issue positions were well known and probably really are his positions. Social issues like abortion and teaching creationism in schools are hardly the most important ones these days but they do tend to get a lot of folks upset up here in urban/suburban Illinois. And Brady’s rather vague fiscal plans weren’t enough to override that upset. Still, a race this close is an accomplishment in blue blue Illinois, especially in light of the somewhat flawed Kirk’s victory in the President’s home state and despite the herculean efforts of the Prez and Mrs. Obama at the end.
In many ways, even in Illinois, the Republicans did well. Can they build on it? Given their self destructive behavior even in recent years (and Brady’s candidacy, despite his showing, was self-destructive) I wouldn’t be too sure.
Comment by cassandra Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:26 am
Here’s hoping every GOP statewide candidate for the next 20 yrs prints this post and pastes next to their bathroom mirror.
Comment by Bakersfield Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:27 am
It’s funny, any number of canmpaign “sins” can be covered up with a good field operation.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:27 am
More of the same. Glad we’re still going down this road. Seems to be working out just fine.
Comment by We Todd Did Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:29 am
Bakersfield … “true that”
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:31 am
bill baar is right on. brady’s biggest mistake was not disqualifying quinn personally. he made him wear the jacket for state’s rotten finances and jobs, but let him off the hook for his blago enabling. he should have pounded that hard. suburban woman meme is getting old. they are not as pro-choice as media always lazily portrays.
Comment by joey bishop Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:33 am
I that looking at the Brady/ Kirk numbers side by side is quite informative. Kirk received about 69,000 more votes in Chicago/ Cook/ Collars even though he had some serious hits put on him. He wasn’t as strong as the Kirk that ran in those Congressional races.
I’d suggest that the JBT/ RRB margins are more a function of one candidate just blowing to other out of the water on TV. But the Kirk/ Brady comparison highlights the voters that could have been gained in a more sustained suburban-focused campaign that made Brady connect with suburbanites.
Comment by kanah Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:36 am
Add up another Illinois GOP loss due to their dysfunctional divide between their conservative and moderate factions. Dillard’s support for Obama was anathema for the GOP partisans. Default Brady. Default Quinn. And Illinois democracy muddles to another unsatisfying end.
Comment by Vole Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:40 am
The lesson in this race is that truly conservative candidates are simply not electable statewide in Illinois. I wanted to believe that for once there could be a strong conservative voice in a statewide office, however there just are not enough of us (conservative republicans) to overcome the massive Chicago Liberal vote.
The Brady loss is just another chapter in the ongoing tragedy that is Democratic rule in Illinois. Hope everyone enjoys the continuance of this train wreck.
Comment by Living in Oklahoma Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:41 am
This confirms what I’ve been thinking since Tuesday. If Dillard wins the primary, he wins the general. Amazing how so few votes in a primary can change the course of an entire election.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:45 am
Some co-workers and I were discussing the election along similiar lines to the column Rich wrote about note surewho he was going to choose. The popular water cooler snetiment is that both the Gov and Senate race presented bad choices all around. No one ws happy with who they were left to vote for, they just selected whoever they thought was the lesser of the two evils.
I know a number of people who changed votes from Brady to Quinn based on the fumigation comment Brady made right beofre voting. I think this cost him a few thousand votes all by itself. Not a game changer, but take that out an run on a moderate message as others suggested and this could have been a different race.
In the end, to me, a lot of voters were holding their noses while voting.
Comment by Ghost Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:47 am
On the Lake County side, the guy rarely came up here. I can’t tell you how many R Committeemen talked about how they never saw Bill or Plummer during this race.
Now many would say that the reason for the Kirk vs. Brady discrepancy is because much of Lake County was in Kirk’s old district. However JBT and Rutherford received similar support to Kirk.
So what was the difference? Stances on issues and a very poor presence in the county, that lost him about 13,000 votes in Lake County alone.
Comment by A.B. Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:47 am
I didn’t see the Cohen factor coming. I would have bet a million dollars that he would hurt Quinn more than Brady.
Hard to remember now, but many months ago Quinn and Cohen were destined to run as a team in the general. Whatever Jedi mind-tricks Madigan played on Cohen to get him to withdraw probably won Quinn the election.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:48 am
Brady coasted. Much like he’s done in state government for 17 yrs.
While I’m no huge fan of Quinn’s, the better man won.
Comment by just sayin' Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:51 am
Congrats to Gov Quinn and thanks to the collar counties!!!! You offered the firewall that was needed.
Comment by Leia Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:51 am
I live in Berwyn which is near Oak Park. Can I just say that I never actually saw any indication that Mr. Brady was running for anything? Not much in the way of signs, local parade sitings, I never received mail, of course that could be because I’m a registered Dem. I saw a few billboards but can’t remember the last time one of those caused me to vote for a candidate, try a new restaurant or product or anything else.
Comment by cermak_rd Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:54 am
Word,
So do you think Maddie and Cohen had some kind of deal? Could he possibly be that insightful as too forsee Scott Lee’s role? Whatever. If Scott Lee thought he was going to torpedo Quinn he sure was mistaken. Thanks Scott Lee. We couldn’t have done it without you. Maybe you should run for Mayor of Chicago now.
Comment by Bill Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:56 am
Unbelievably, we’ve just handed the keys back to the guys that wrecked the car. Can’t wait to see how this same group addresses the $15 billion hole they’ve dug. Maybe Planned Parenthood and the teacher’s unions will want to contribute some of their PAC money to that.
Comment by N'ville Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:58 am
No Taxation Without Representation!!!
Those of us in IL-10 who will be without a congressional representative from the time Kirk leaves for the Senate should get a rebate on our taxes. I’m sure Dold will get right on that. Just like he’s working on getting us back to work & creating more jobs.
Comment by Jack S. Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:00 am
Jack S. -
I have heard that you might have Dold sworn in early to fill the void left by Kirk.
Comment by A.B. Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:03 am
@Vole I agree with you. I can speak only for my self and my family we did not vote for Dillard because of the Obama connection.
I did not vote for Brady in the primary either, however to me Dillard was to much Center/Left
Comment by DoubleDown Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:04 am
Bill,
Part of me has a hard time seeing SLC dropping out and the running as an independent without him thinking he was going to get something out of it.
Emphasis on ‘thinking’…
As for a Madigan Jedi mind trick, it would explain a lot, wouldn’t it?
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:05 am
It was inedible that Brady was going to get hurt by the women vote. There are certain positions that are absolute deal breakers to many women-even conservative ones. One of which is not being able to take a morning after pill in the case of rape. Even Brady’s youthful running mate got that.
Although Brady’s folks told us voters didn’t care about social issues this election, they may have wanted to check with the voters first.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:06 am
Kirk represented the 10th District for several terms, so it was no surprise that he held his base and outperformed Brady in Lake County and the suburban townships in Northern Cook County. Kirk always did manage to do well with ticket splitters.
It was Brady’s race to lose and he lost. Quinn staged a late rally and Brady, who had been sitting on a small lead in the polls, had nothing else to counter the Democrat’s GOTV drive.
Comment by Honest Abe Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:07 am
{Whatever Jedi mind-tricks Madigan played on Cohen to get him to withdraw probably won Quinn the election.}
Word
Please see Pawnbroker Regulation Act; (205 ILCS 510/2) (from Ch. 17, par. 4652) Sec. 2., for the rhyme and reason of the Return of the Jedi.
This concludes our lesson for today; that is all.
Comment by Quinn T. Sential Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:12 am
Brady had an interesting balancing act.
Campaigning as a “moderate” in the collars certainly could have gained him some of the non-partisan voters, who, in the end, decided based upon the “social” issues.
Yet, he might have lost as many hardcore, fiscal or social conservatives.
Not sure Dillard could have pulled of this coalition either.
Comment by Balance Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:14 am
Bill - I honestly think it is only a matter of weeks before Cohen announces his candidacy for mayor of Chicago.
Honestly.
Comment by George Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:18 am
I think Brady’s lack of a budget message contributed to his downfall as much as anything. Lots of smart people here kept saying that he shouldn’t offer any specifics regarding his budget plan, that to do so would be suicide. Brady took that advice and offered pablum. He was either silent or silly on the budget, the single most important issue in the Governor’s race.
“I’ll balance the budget while cutting taxes — but you’re going to have to wait for the details until I’m elected.”
Epic fail.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:20 am
===Yet, he might have lost as many hardcore, fiscal or social conservatives.===
You mean, like Kirk did?
Please.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:26 am
Conventional wisdom always had it that SLC would hurt Quinn more so than Brady.
On here Rich picked up that he was hurting Brady more–something the mainstream media didn’t see.
Perhaps MJM had this gut feeling–or Jedi mind message–that SLC would hurt Brady more than Quinn and therefore did nothing to challenge SLCs nominating petitions. It was definitely a smart move on his part.
train111
Comment by train111 Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:28 am
I am a woman in the city of Chicago who has pulled both Democratic and Republican primary ballots in recent years, so I guess I would be viewed as an independent. I was deluged with robocalls in the weeks leading up to the election, many on behalf of Quinn. Not a single call from Brady’s campaign or any group working on his behalf.
The fact that the Brady folks did not seem to reach out to independents might be one of the reasons he came up short.
Comment by What...no call? Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:29 am
=== It was inedible [sic] that Brady was going to get hurt by the women vote. There are certain positions that are absolute deal breakers to many women-even conservative ones. One of which is not being able to take a morning after pill in the case of rape. Even Brady’s youthful running mate got that. ===
Um, suburban dads aren’t too crazy about someone forcing their daughter to have their rapists babies either.
Nor are suburbanites that crazy about making Evolution optional in their schools.
Let’s face it, Brady was never a good fit for the suburbs…his failure to rack up bigger margins in downstate Illinois was his true undoing.
AND, although it hasn’t been said yet, Hats off to Joe Slade White for bringing some message discipline to the Quinn campaign, even when most of the pundits were blaring it wasn’t working.
It did.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:30 am
Spot on analysis, Rich. I also think this particular election result is a case where a stronger, more experienced, more moderate city/suburban based LG candidate running along with Brady could have made a real difference during his campaign–and might have helped Brady enough upstate to pull ahead. A stronger “two-fer” ticket would have meant a broadened and balanced campaign presence: more sound bites, more pre-election events, more meet and greets, etc. Those things can add up over weeks and months. Along with the SLC fiasco this is just another example of why BOTH parties need to take much more interest in the candidates running in their Primaries.
That said, the 2010 team R LG candidate was nominated by voters in the primary, so can’t fault Brady for that choice. I’ve never met him, but IMO Jason has been on the receiving end of some of the most vicious, cruel, juvenile and unwarranted personal attacks I’ve ever seen. He’s young and whatever people might think about his qualifications to be a heartbeat away from the governorship, he seems like a decent, sincere guy. It’s hard to see how he merited the vituperation and hate meted out against him, including frequently on this blog.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:32 am
Yellow Dog Dem, good call on Joe Slade White! I love the series of black and white negative commercials on Brady! Those were some of the best and most noticeable ads of the season but I don’t think the national tv pundit picked up on them and they should have. they built a story line, kept the same creepy video and music, were probably very low on the money aspect of production values, but firmly planted in the voter mind the exact negative picture of Brady that drove voters against him.
I look forward to winners and losers, the consultants edition, on this blog. Joe Slade White. Consultant. big winner.
Comment by Amalia Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:39 am
YDD, maybe his failure to rack up bigger numbers downstate are for the same reasons you gave for his lack of suburban strength?
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:42 am
The City and Cook came out for Quinn. Bottom line. Brady did better than Judy in every collar county and Judy is moderate on right to life issues. Quinn did better in Cook than Rod did in Cook 2006 by over 28k votes. At some point this is about how much power Cook has when it feels like going to the polls. Saying suburban women swung this is not correct. Nobody said that demographic cost Judy 4 years ago and Brady did better in every one of those counties than Judy did.
Comment by erin 17 Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:51 am
Brady still did well in the suburbs. He also did very well in traditional Dem areas like Madison County, the Quad Cities and Rockford.
The important lesson for Republicans who foam at the mouth and allege the “power brokers” determine our up candidates is simple. Moderates perform better than conservatives in statewide general elections. Of course, I’m not intimating that a strong, skilled fundraiser like Aaron Schock or John Shimkus couldn’t win a statewide election. But even in the best GOP year in 16 years, we missed out on the Governor’s Mansion. What a disappointment.
Kirk’s numbers downstate are very good. However, I’ve told friends and coworkers for a while that, if Illinois had a later primary (i.e. Missouri), Pat Hughes could have beaten Kirk. The TEA Party started to amass its real primary electoral strength after the Affordable Care Act was passed and March primary season ended. As a Republican who thought from the beginning that Kirk could pull this off, I’m actually admitting that I’m glad our primary took place before the Super Bowl.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:10 pm
Phineas, are you kidding me? You think Brady’s pro-life/creationist views LOST him votes downstate?
Comment by LN Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:24 pm
Responsa ….
===…the 2010 team R LG candidate was nominated by voters in the primary, so can’t fault Brady for that choice. I’ve never met him, but IMO Jason has been on the receiving end of some of the most vicious, cruel, juvenile and unwarranted personal attacks I’ve ever seen. He’s young and whatever people might think about his qualifications to be a heartbeat away from the governorship, he seems like a decent, sincere guy. It’s hard to see how he merited the vituperation and hate meted out against him, including frequently on this blog.===
Then Jason’s Dad shouldn’t have put up a 28 year old kid with no work experiece outside Dad’s paychecks and interships …You win, you are in the “arena”, and you give THAT resume Jason’s Dad gave when Jason was put up as the LG candidate, then when becoming the nominee, its all fair game after that …
It’s not like Jason made it difficult to nail him … weak resume, horrible on TV, hid (which I supported as a campaigh tactic, BTW!), but what are you left with … Brady was saddled, but a ground game to find 1 vote a precinct more would even make Jason Plummer moot …
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:24 pm
- Jack S. - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:00 am:
No Taxation Without Representation!!! Those of us in IL-10 who will be without a congressional representative from the time Kirk leaves for the Senate should get a rebate on our taxes.
——————————
Well, we effectively had no representation in one of our Senate seats from the time Obama announced his candidacy for president (Feb 2007) until Roland Burris was appointed (Jan 2009) while Obama was campaigning and then working on his transition, and somehow the state survived. Although I do like the tax rebate idea.
Comment by Bluejay Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:39 pm
LN, I don’t know-that’s why I asked the question.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:40 pm
Brady is welcome to still go ahead and fire the Blagojevich holdovers Friday; I give him my permission. I think that promise probably bought Brady a few more votes, but would have done more for him in Springfield and downstate if it had been used earlier and oftener. It might have goaded Quinn to match his offer in self-defense, but my feeling is Quinn must have decided he was stuck with those clowns for good or ill until after the election. Perhaps he will start the real fumigation now, on the back of his new “mandate”, with fours years to work on the next election. Take the opportunity to build a new team, add some new blood, Strategize a collective vision for the next 4 years and show some progress in a new direction. Give the impression that the cowardly waiting around for November is over. God help him and the legislature if they now keep saying they can’t move bills because it is lame duck time, or that they don’t want to vote on controversies so close to the 2010 election. They need to get right with Mike and start flying this plane RIGHT, right away. Making the hard choices but doing it in as smart and considerate a way as possible. That’s all any adult can do.
I think Brady would have won over some more people if he’d offered even a hint of a real budget alternative. He struck me as very insincere. Quinn may be wrong sometimes, but you get the sense that whatever it is he is rambling on about, he really believes in it.
Comment by Newsclown Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:49 pm
Oswego Willy——–Just curious, how did you view 30 year old Alexi when he ran for State Treasurer?
Comment by Wally Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:11 pm
Well in that case, Phineas, your answer is no.
Comment by LN Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:15 pm
Gee, Alexi and Kirk make a cute couple…
Comment by D.P. Gumby Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:16 pm
===Oswego Willy——–Just curious, how did you view 30 year old Alexi when he ran for State Treasurer?===
Like MJM did, underqualified, rich, untested …but
Alexi was not going to be a heartbeat away from running the 5th largest state, on his own, in the country … the Treasurer is not the CEO of every single agency in the state of Illinois and handling a billion dollar budget and THEN get it passed. The Treasurer is not the “Face” of Illinois whose crediblility is up to a challenge when facing other governors, CEO in big business, and at times the President of the United States when meeting in Washington with those other governors …
How did I view Alexi compared to Jason … its apples and oranges, because sometimes that LG becomes a governor … ask Pat Quinn about that!
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:20 pm
That was my response to Wally … thanks
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:21 pm
“Saying suburban women swung this is not correct. Nobody said that demographic cost Judy 4 years ago and Brady did better in every one of those counties than Judy did.”
That is quite true. Brady won EVERY collar county handily, the closest race he had was in Will County and he won that by 7 points (according to the CNN county by county map). If he was scaring off suburban women, that effect seems to have ceased abruptly at the Cook County line.
Comment by Secret Square Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:22 pm
>However, I’ve told friends and coworkers for a while that, if Illinois had a later primary (i.e. Missouri), Pat Hughes could have beaten Kirk. The TEA Party started to amass its real primary electoral strength after the Affordable Care Act was passed and March primary season ended.
And Adam Andrzejewski might had been the nominee for governor too. But it was too late in the game for me to switch candidates because Brady was in the best position to keep RINOs Andy McKenna, Kirk Dillard and Jim Ryan out.
Comment by Segatari Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:38 pm
The last debate with Carol Marin moderating showed Brady at his worst on social issues, when he said he believes in evolution and then said Creationism should be taught in public schools, but not as science. Not a smart position. What does he want, a religion class in public schools? Quinn took a firm stance against teaching religion-as-science in public schools. School boards defeated the teaching of Creationism in different parts of the country–even in conservative Kansas, if I remember rightly.
If some women didn’t vote for Brady because of his social views, I thank them. I don’t need a Bible-belt governor.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:42 pm
“What No Call” is right.
The telephone was ringing off the hook and the mailbox was stuffed with political flyers and GOTV pieces, but there was nothing at all from Brady. Very few Republicans expect to do well in Chicago or Cook County, but all candidates need to maintain some type of presence to offset the huge numbers that the Democratic machine can generate here. If Brady had operatives in Chicago or Cook County, they did an exceptionally poor job. Quinn was a less than perfect candidate (exceedingly dull and bland) and many members of his own party were less than enthusiastic about him, but his percentages in Chicago were unbelievable.
Comment by Honest Abe Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:49 pm
Honest Abe, I should have added in my previous post that in addition to receiving Quinn calls, I also got a few calls from the Kirk campaign, and also several from Roger Keats’ campaign, even though Keats, as a Republican, had NO shot of winning his election for Cook County Board President. You’d think that anyone in as tight of a race as Brady was would reach out to as many independents as possible.
Comment by What...no call? Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 2:52 pm
Brady blew it by saying the people of Illinois are not concerned about social issues, only the economy. Women care very much about social issues and personal character. That final debate with Marin was rather chilling, his far right Tea Party ideals came out coldly, and with obvious disdain for those affected by these issues. Not surprised by the poll’s results.
Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 4:16 pm
Comparing 2010 to 2006 however is a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison. Just about EVERY Republican running in 2010 probably did a bit better, than similarly situated Republicans in 2006. One year was a Democratic wave, last Tuesday it was good to be GOP.
I have no problem believing that Brady did better in suburban counties, in 2010, than Judy did in 2006. That doesn’t mean his failure to do even better, with suburban women, didn’t cost him the election vis-a-vis Quinn.
Comment by ZC Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 5:32 pm
===Phineas, are you kidding me? You think Brady’s pro-life/creationist views LOST him votes downstate? ===
So, you’re saying that Downstate is 100 percent pro-life and creationist?
Really?
Have you ever been Downstate?
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:35 am