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* If Melissa Bean’s election results don’t show the rank stupidity of her campaign and the DCCC, then I don’t know what does.
Even if she somehow manages to overcome her 553-vote deficit - and that’s doubtful - this never should’ve been close.
Joe Walsh had tons of people in the field, marching in parades, knocking on doors. Bean didn’t. Bean made some bad votes for her district (health insurance, stimulus, etc.). She had always run as a conservative to moderate Democrat, but then she changed. Unfortunately for Bean, her district didn’t.
* Bean also didn’t realize until it way was too late that she was in trouble, and she quickly tried to flood the airwaves with negative ads. By then, everybody else was already on the air with their ads. She was drowned out.
And what did the DCCC do? Nothing. They could’ve weighed in late, but they didn’t. They probably thought she had it in the bag and was just being a typical whiner incumbent who always thinks she’s in trouble.
Bean won her first two races with 52 and 51 percent, respectively. She behaved like a moderate in Congress. Then she clobbered her GOP opponent two years ago, so maybe she and the DCCC figured she was unbeatable and Bean could do whatever she wanted. But 2008 was a Democratic landslide, especially here in Illinois. This time, Illinoisans were clearly furious with the Democratic Congress, and they made those feeilings known. Just ask Phil Hare, Debbie Halvorson, Bill Foster, Dan Seals and Alexi Giannoulias.
Bean apparently believed her own hype and thought she could sit on what she thought was her lead. Wave rules didn’t apply to her. And her campaign was clearly convinced that Joe Walsh’s numerous personal problems disqualified him in voters’ minds. Wrongo.
* And then there was this…
The presence of Green Party candidate Bill Scheurer of Lindenhurst also likely hurt Bean’s re-election bid.
Scheurer’s name was already familiar, since he ran for Congress in 2008 and for state representative as a Democrat in 2004. And Mezey said most of the 6,400 voters who backed Scheurer on Tuesday are probably progressive liberals who would have otherwise voted Democratic.
Third party candidates aren’t viable in Illinois, but as Bill Brady found out the hard way, they can still do you in. Bean’s campaign and the DCCC’s non-involvement was a screwup from beginning to end. And the third party angle was just one of the bigger reasons behind it.
* If anything, I now have a bit more respect for the We Ask America polling firm. While they didn’t get the final point spread right, they did have Walsh leading Bean in their last survey, and they showed the Green Party candidate getting over 5 percent. He ended up with 3, but that’s well within the margin of error.
They were also the only public pollster to predict that Bob Dold would beat Dan Seals. They got the spread way wrong, but the end result was the same. They also had Hultgren over Foster.
* Related…
* 4 Ill. House seats flip to GOP
* Dem machine wins what it most wants while losing U.S. House seats
* Behind by 553 votes, Bean won’t concede to Walsh
* Tea party favorite claims victory in U.S. House race — but nothing settled yet
* Walsh claims victory with all precincts counted
* Lyons: Tsunami unexpectedly splashed 8th District
* Dold credits catchy ad and other strategies in House win
* How Walsh surprised Bean
* Dold wants to extend tax cuts, boost economy
* Replacing Health Care Bill a Priority: Bob Dold
* In victory, Dold takes a centrist tack
* Hultgren says national issues propelled win
* Faith guides Congressman-elect Randy Hultgren
* Congressman-elect tours 14th District
* Hultgren win part of national wave
* Victory ‘humbling’ for Kinzinger
* Politics has long been a passion for U.S. Rep.-elect Kinzinger
* Kinzinger’s win no surprise to those around him
* Afghan, Iraq vet unseats Dem incumbent
* Need to Bring Government to People: Kinzinger
* Schilling out thanking voters after upset win over Hare in 17th Congressional District
* Schilling says voters are real winners
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:22 pm
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Right on the nose with Bean’s campaign. You never take anything for granted. Field staff is important - it allows voters a connection to the campaign and the candidate, at least an extension of it.
Comment by Aaron Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:29 pm
Utterly disappointing. She should be ashamed.
Comment by anon Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:45 pm
Hard to believe a Democrat could take anything for granted in that district in any year, much less this one.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:47 pm
Where was AR Consulting this time to make sure Scheurer didn’t make it to the ballot like in 2006?
http://www.alternet.org/blogs/themix/38043/
Comment by Feech Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:49 pm
She was obama’s national campaign chairwoman. HAH!
Also I’d love to hear from cindi canary and the rest of the “good government” people that always complain about money in politics and how it buys campaigns and elections about how if that’s so, bean lost.
You have to wonder what these defeats will do for democrats on redistricting at the congressional level. I would think the goal would be to add some of the city to beans district and kirk’s old district to soften them up, but this is going to make it hard for them.
Comment by shore Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:49 pm
The redistricting question is something I have been wondering too, shore. Since Dems run everything at the state level, which freshman do the heavily target? Which way are population centers moving? Oh, for balanced government. Neither party should so completely manipulate the map like this. Admittedly its worse knowing it’s the other guys drawing it up. =P
Comment by Liandro Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:55 pm
Even more telling is that Mussman won and the NE Burbs stayed Dem in the house. Roskam killed, Milner won, Walsh won. I give credit for people there being smart enough to make their own decisions, but hate them for electing a Madigan rubber stamp (my opinion).
She is the only one who lost.
Comment by Wumpus Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:55 pm
I think the ‘Clueless’ award goes to voters in the 8th, who now have the ‘honor’ of being represented by Joe Walsh.
Make ‘em proud Joe. LOL.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:57 pm
I have always been underwhelemd by Bean, so this does not surprise me.
I seem to recall there being several dont take anything for granted advisorys floating around for a while, but apparently where Bean was concerned they did just that, even while Madigan was making sure to shore up his own district.
Comment by Ghost Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:04 pm
We Ask America also on the nose with Schilling getting 52 percent.
Comment by QuincyNews Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:05 pm
As an 8th Dist. resident, I recall hearing a lot more from her in 2004, 2006 and 2008 than I ever did this year. It is a center-right district and that is terrain that is doubly hard for a Dem to defend in a year like this. She’s always seemed a bit “meh” to appeal strongly to progressives, and I think she got outworked and lost too many moderates.
Comment by 60010 Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:08 pm
Sorry. I was wrong. WAA shorted Schilling by a point. He ended up topping 53.
Comment by QuincyNews Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:10 pm
Bean deserves to lose. She has been arrogant, smug, and aloof. She ignored her constituents by avoiding public forums and refusing to move into the District. Even the media thought she and her office were routinely defensive and unresponsive.
Comment by Whatever Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:13 pm
I think the Bean loss (if not for Quinn’s victory), would have been the story of the election. This is an absolute stunner.
Here’s the issue with redistricting that I’m not sure the Dems in Springfield will have an answer to: the collar counties all went to Brady over Quinn. If Illinois has 17 Congressional seats, you can only divide Chicago up into so many parts. Furthermore, it remains to be seen if the results in the counties away from Chicago (Sangamon, Madison, Rock) are outliers on this election or indicative of a bigger trend.
Comment by Logical Thinker Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:18 pm
Bean screwed up this time but if I was Joe Walsh I wouldnt get too comfy. 2012 when Obama is on the ballot and turnout is up I think a tea partier like him gets bounced. of course a lot can change in two yrs as this election showed… sigh
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:25 pm
Has the Senate already set its clock back one hour in order to take advantage of the upcoming scheduled time change?
Perhaps an extra hour of sleep by the House of Lords would inhibit them from doing any more damage to the citizens than they might otherwise be inclined to do.
Comment by Quinn T. Sential Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:31 pm
not familiar enough with the District and the numbers from previous campaigns, but one thing that may have worked against her was the highly personal nature of the campaign on the part of Walsh. one thing that I like about the Tea Party folks is that they try to really connect with the voters, though I loathe how they do it. Walsh seemed to do that. Melissa did not.
the question of the cult of personality and appearance in politics is a thorny one. Obama benefitted from those aspects in his primary and general run. he did not use those to his advantage in the White House…..teleprompters are offputting. but Walsh excites people and that’s not a bad thing. It’s just bad that he’s a bad person policy wise.
also too bad that the Dem party is down two women leaders. We need more visible women besides Lisa and Jan. time to cultivate new leaders who connect with voters. Susana Mendoza is running for City Clerk, she’s a spunky one to watch.
Comment by Amalia Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:43 pm
LOL,
All that took was a little wake up call from QTS, and the Senate is all of a sudden ready to get down to business.
Appropriately, they are opening with a prayer. Hopefully they are praying for us, rather than themselves.
Comment by Quinn T. Sential Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:43 pm
When your’e dealing with very small percentages, the margin of error is much smaller. So it probably is not true that:
“last survey…..showed the Green Party candidate getting over 5 percent. He ended up with 3, but that’s well within the margin of error.”
A poll with a 5% error (N=400) has about a 3.3% error for a percentages as low as 5 percent
Minor parties almost do better in the polls than in the elections…
Comment by Gary Klass Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:56 pm
*almost __always__
Comment by Gary Klass Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 2:03 pm
If I were Bean, I’d start fundraising and walking yesterday for a 2012 run.
Comment by Wumpus Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 2:09 pm
Bean and Seals both should have won easily, even with the down economy, Republican motivation and older electorate this time around. Both had 95%+ name recognition and plenty of money to do whatever they wanted.
60010 nailed it right on the head. OUTWORKED. The candidates and the DCCC blew it.
Comment by State Sen. Clay Davis Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 2:09 pm
wumpus you assume the disctrict wil remain intact. If we loose 1 seat it will be tough to cut a new map. Even loosing 2 seats, with them trying to protect Costello, what do they do next, wipe out the 10th and cut it up? you can only make the downstate districts so big and keep them dem. What merge the 17th and 18th to try and run Schock out? merge 13 & 6 while giving some more to the 11th?
with loosing 4 seats, and not gaining the 10th dist, there is only so much they can do, unless they think they are going to draw city districts out to dupage and cut it up. that may create mor outrage then they would want
Comment by todd Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 2:16 pm
Probably part of the problem for Bean — which isn’t her fault — is that with so many other incumbents considered more vulneralbe they weren’t putting the resources into th 8th like they have done years past. Not just the DCCC, but the Chamber of Commerce, Emily’s List, etc.
Comment by Just Observing Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 2:25 pm
oh, look, Rahm is on the Oprah United plane to California! as if it wasn’t weird enough in Illinois politics already…….
Comment by Amalia Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 2:27 pm
The Bean loss is one of the more obvious (and sad) consequences of the early passing of Botterman. He would never have let it happen.
Comment by Vibes Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 2:45 pm
I would not be surprised if they give all of McHenry and GOP parts of Lake to Manzullo and merge 10 and 8’s Lake portion into a More Democratic friendly distict (partially merge it with 9) and give more of the City to Quigley. Therefore, it forces Manzullo and Walsh into a primary against each other and Schakowsky could go after Dold. Thoughts?
Comment by Rahm's Parking Meter Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 3:06 pm
Rahm’s Parking Meter: i think you are on the right track.
Comment by Amalia Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 3:10 pm
Downstate dems now have only one Congressman. Here’s a scenario for the downstate Congressional Dems to gain back the 17th District Seat…Split Peoria County along the Kohler Senate District lines and merge into the 17th Congressional District. Then dump Quincy and Adams County south into Shimkus’s 19th. Schock has to choose which GOP Congressman he wants to take out and the 17th becomes more democratic than today. Former 18th District Congressman, Ray LaHood didn’t want to split Peoria County because he wanted to keep Evans out of his media market and deny local dems the Evans campaign expertise. Without a downstate democratic congressman, local and county democratic organizations will become even more impendent than they are today.
Comment by Louis Howe Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 3:26 pm
Bean was a reliable vote for the financial sector. She was consistent.
She voted for making it harder to declare bankruptcy b/c the financial sector wanted it.
She voted for the health care bill–which forces Americans to buy low quality health insurance–because the financial sector wanted it.
The media may portray the health care bill as “liberal”. However, most liberals see the health care bill as serving the interests of insurance companies (the power of gov’t is used to pressure people to buy their product) and the interests of gov’t (less of people using Medicaid and other gov’t programs for catastrophic expenses).
If there was a public option in the health care bill then you can say the liberals owned the bill. But without a public option, it’s not the liberal’s health care bill.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 3:35 pm
Joe Walsh … life’s been good to him so far
Comment by Bluejay Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 3:37 pm
Are Illinois voters “furious” at Congressional Democrats? What are they furious about?
Are they “furious” the economy sucks and the government isn’t doing enough about it?
Or are they furious about some policy the Congressional Dems implemented? Which policy?
The health care bill? What percentage of Americans want the health care bill repealed when they understand it?
How seriously should elected officials take the whims of citizens who don’t understand policy? Should politicians pander to people who are ignorant? Do you want to live in a society where partisan media outlets seek to make their audiences ignorant so voters will pander to the ignorance?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 3:40 pm
sounds like the internal polling for the last few weeks scared the crap out of bean’s people, but they really didn’t find this out until late summer when it was too late to build a massive GOTV effort. you have to remember, bean never was a grassroots member of congress. she didn’t have an existing infrastructure from cycle-to-cycle. instead, the business community has been her biggest backers since 2006. anyway, it seems to me they thought they could blow walsh out through the air by going negative on tv.
bean’s been a great congresswoman, but they totally underestimated how many democratic voters would stay home and how many moderates didn’t care about bean’s personal work for them in congress. people vote angry.
Comment by streeterville Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 3:47 pm
AP just declared Quinn the winner. Even more pressure on Brady to concede now.
Comment by EazyTurner Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 3:55 pm
I worked on Bean’s 2006 campaign where she pulled off a squeaker. She should have known that the next mid term, 2010, would be similar at best. She started 2006 as one of the top five target races nationally. Due to the Dem surge that year she dropped out of the top 20 by election day but still only one by one percentage point. Obviously, 2006 was a much more favorable Dem climate than 2010.
The DCCC just looked at her 2008 poll numbers and didn’t realize that she had gotten an Obama Favorite Son bounce, like all of the other Dem candidates in Illinois that year. Obama won counties in 2008 that hadn’t gone Democratic on a county wide basis since 1854.
DCCC should have focused on races like this, where they could have made a difference, instead of trying to shore up first term Blue Dogs in 65% Rep districts across the country. They also lost the 17th, which had been Democratic with Lane Evans for many years.
If yard signs were any sign, Bean signs were few and far between in Lake and McHenry counties whereas Walsh signs were everywhere.
Comment by McHenry Mike Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 3:59 pm
Apparently everyone has forgotten that the DCCC under Rahm was transformed into a brilliant and effective campaigning machine capable of no errors or mistakes!
You all need to take a step back, re-read Naftali Bendavid’s hagiography, “The Thumpin’: How Rahm Emanuel and the Democrats Learned to Be Ruthless and Ended the Republican Revolution” and contemplate the obvious error of your ways.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 4:06 pm
Louis…look at the map. Downstate doesn’t deserve more than one Democratic Congressman right now.
Unless, of course, you want to figure out a way to have a Republican Congressman representing the South Side.
Comment by QuincyNews Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 4:14 pm
MrJM - Rahm hasn’t been there for awhile now. Not sure how he’s responsible for 2010.
Mike - Totally agree with you. I’ll never understand the confidence exuded for the last 8 months re: the 8th District. Almost every factor was working against Bean here and 2008’s numbers were completely worthless. If you were an R in Il-8, you had nothing to vote for in 2008. President, Senate, and Congress had been settled for months by E-Day. Conversely, if you were an R, you had EVERYTHING to vote for in 2010, putting aside the national trends. Throw in the Democratic enthusiasm gap and the Green candidate, and the red lights should have glowing since Feb.
Two other things:
1. I think Walsh came off so terrible in March and April that he almost lulled the D’s to sleep By the time everyone started paying attention, his personal problems were old news.
which leads me too…
2. The early primary really hurt the D’s from top to bottom. And this is an example because a terrible joke of a candidate like Walsh was able to steal the primary and then have plenty of time to adjust to his personal transgressions.
Comment by streeterville Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 4:14 pm
@logical thinker, I think we already know the trend Downstate, which is part of a broader national trend in which urban centers are becoming more Democratic and rural areas including small to medium cities more Republican. I don’t expect to see that change unless the Democrats become much more serious about economic issues. The Establishment of both parties is more or less OK about economic trends that are hollowing out small town America. Ironically enough, the closest economic ally this slice of the country has is probably the Fed, whose quantitative easing encourages foreign exchange trading that has the practical effect of raising the value of foreign currency while lowering that of the dollar and maintaining low interest rates — about as good a scenario for US manufacturers as you can imagine. And not surprisingly, US manufacturing has been on a strong upward trend since the bailouts began. These small towns are going to start to see some benefit from this. Who they’ll give credit to is another question. Certainly not the Rock Island County Board or the associated local Democratic old guard, that’s for sure.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 4:17 pm
Before the Ds get too comfortable with their plans for dispatching Mr. Walsh, consider that the metldown of Illinois may come before the next election, thus poisoning the attitudes of the everyday voter toward Democratic leaders everywhere in this state.
Comment by Plutocrat03 Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 4:31 pm
As others here have mentioned, Bean started out well and warmly with her district. Then she got sloppy or lazy or changed (depending on who you ask). According to a number of people who notice these things she slowly and gradually seemed to get seduced by the Washington milieu and by the attention and fawning of the Dem House leadership. She spent less and less time with her constituents who reasonably expect services and some interactive two-way communication.
Still, nearly everyone I’ve talked to in the 8th thinks Bean would have been re-elected if she had just shown some of her previously vaunted independence, listened to and heeded her district’s impassioned pleas, told Mrs.Pelosi to go pound sand on this one— and voted against Obamacare. She can blame her staff, her pollsters the DCCC, or whomever else she wants, but it was Melissa Bean, herself, who in March decided to cast that vote in congress which many believe sealed her electoral fate on Nov.2 because it infuriated and dissed so much of her district.
In the Walsh-Bean race there are some really important lessons for future incumbents.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 4:38 pm
Costello won by 40,000 votes. His district should be left alone.
But I think there’s things the Dems could do downstate to strengthen their positions if this is not gonna be a bipartisan map.
Like fix the mess of the 17th so that Rock Island’s district gets parts of urban Peoria, now that the mapmakers aren’t going to be worrying about protecting or keeping happy Ray LaHood any more.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 5:17 pm
Angry Chicagoan,
The Fed’s shenanigans also have the consequence of increasing the price of crops as investors buy more commodities rather than treasuries which is good for agribusiness as well (albeit not necessarily the individual farmer who has to pay more for fuel, fertilizer, etc…) but I am not sure exactly how what is good for manufacturers and big ag is automatically good for individual workers. It seems to me in this economy the default CEO position right now is pocket the profits rather than invest more going forward in workers and cut cut cut every way you can using the crisis as an excuse to shake down your workers even more.
In case you can’t tell… I would hardly call the Fed a friend to small town America or anyone but banksters.
Also, destroying the dollar makes gas prices go up so that folks in small town America, who have already seen their small towns lose all their hometown stores to big boxes in the “big” town 20-40 miles away and schools consolidated have to spend more of their income at the pump. Thanks Fed!
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 5:32 pm
eliminate a city district. Make th edistricts look like they are not gerrymandered. Nice squares or rectangles please.
Comment by Wumpus Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 6:15 pm
McHenry Mike, the DCCC doesn’t believe in yard signs. Or polling place visibility. Or having the candidate do anything but fundraise money to fund TV ads. Or treating people like human beings.
Comment by State Sen. Clay Davis Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 6:42 pm
I just checked. It seems that Mr. Walsh’s lead is down to 365 with Cook Co. processing some absentee votes. Lake and McHenry are being reported as not processing the rest of their absentees until Nov. 16th.
Comment by MikeMacD Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 8:29 pm
Are there any left in cook? Methinks Lake and McHenry won’t be nearly as generous….
Comment by anon Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 9:04 pm
Thank you State Sen. Davis. I worked very hard on the ground game for Bean in 2006 and by election day we had the most effective operation I had ever seen in our county. I actually almost got arrested on election day while the Reps were invisible. Somehow the Bean campaign let all that slip by the wayside this year. The RNC did nothing for Walsh either.
Comment by McHenry Mike Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 9:42 pm
Bean performed exactly as Crane before her - ignored her constituents. After hiding in the weeds for 2 terms, she finally had to vote her real self. She got what she deserved. Joe will serve well and is a far better human than a lying piece of debris such as Melissa Bean. Seals is just a bad candidate. I can’t believe this loser was chosen by the Dems again. Finally, to you upset Dems and angry Chicagoan’s, wait until the massive Quinn/Madigan income tax bill comes due for the continued payoff of union bosses, friends, and patronage (the usual). The herds are already forming before the stampede of money leaves Illinois. Then you’ll be forced to either work or starve! I wish you good luck; you’ll need it!
Comment by Movin' Money Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 9:06 am
By my count the difference is now down to 177. It will be interesting to see how this ends.
Comment by MikeMacD Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:20 am
365 according to DH today at 10 am
Comment by anon Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:06 pm
anon,
New results came out after the DH article.
Comment by MikeMacD Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 3:01 pm
link?
Comment by anon Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 4:39 pm