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* From Stateline.org…
At least 30 states will be governed by a single-party when new lawmakers and governors are sworn in early next year. Last week’s election gave Republicans control of the legislature and the governor’s office in 20 states, up from nine. Democrats, who controlled 15 states, will see that number shrink to 10.
National map of one-party state governments before election day…
After election day…
* The Question: Considering that the Republicans could not take over either legislative chamber, the governor’s mansion or the Supreme Court during the greatest Republican wave since 1994 (and the largest GOP state legislative wave since 1928), and considering that the GOP will be completely shut out of the redistricting process for the first time since our new state Constitution was adopted, are Statehouse Republicans doomed here? If not, why? If so, for how long? Explain.
* Bonus Question: Either way, what should legislative Republicans do now?
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 11:49 am
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I wouldn’t count Repubs out for 2012. After all, Obama will likely still be a polarizing, wave-inducing figure, and Dems will have voted alone on a tax hike for Illinois.
The map will be devastating, but not enough to completely shut Republicans out of making gains in 2012.
Comment by Solomon Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 11:59 am
“Doomed”? I mean, gerrymandering is horrific, but there’s no way to eliminate all GOP or GOP-leaning districts. It didn’t help that they were led this election by a complete turkey — they’ll get another shot in 2 years and likely have a tax increase to run on.
What to do now? It’d be irresponsible, but be the party of no: call for a flat “across the board budget cut” and bemoan tax increases and pension bloat, keep courting corporate money, let time work for you.
PS to Rich: It’s worth mentioning that Florida passed an anti-gerrymandering referendum, and California re-approved theirs, so while single party rule those states might not be affected as much.
Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:03 pm
Keep working, come up with a plan, complete a forensic audit of the votes and determine how areas should be targeted.
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:06 pm
here’s a fun game, throw out a problem, set a stop watch and wait for a republican to offer up some sort of “forensic audit” as the solution. It’s becoming the most annoying buzz phrase since “synergy”
Comment by L.S. Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:09 pm
The interesting thing about the GOP is that we have enough seats in each house to stop all of the budgetary items which require the 3/5 majority. As such, it would take an absolutely horrific remap to keep the GOP in the super-minority for a while. If the House GOP couldn’t be put into super-minority status during Obama’s tidal wave, I can’t imagine a remap would do them in. However, the Senate Republicans suffered through super-minority status for four years. I wouldn’t put it past them winding up with only 23 seats after the remap.
That being said, I don’t think the House & Senate GOP Caucuses should shun compromise. We missed out on the Governor’s mansion and should have done better in the suburban House races. If we cut some budget/tax deals with the understanding (read: in writing) that the remap won’t put our party back into the political Stone Age, I wouldn’t kick and scream. If we cut deals for nothing in return, we will lose out.
Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:13 pm
Since the Dems couldn’t get things liek tax increases passed in the IL legislature when they had even more votes than they do now, I doubt they can do it now. The GOP will have some say in legislation. Will probably result in gridlock which a lot of voters would probably like.
If the GOP push fiscal conservationism and good policy, like more staff for to uncover fraud, eliminating unfunded education mandates and audits to find stuff the State should leave to the private sector, the GOP will be able to claim they are the policy good guys in 2012.
As far as redistricting goes, wasn’t the current map drawn by the Dems after a coin toss? If so, then don’t see to much different a result.
Comment by Retired Non-Union Guy Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:15 pm
Solomon is it your contention that Obama being on the ballot in Illinois will cause a Republican wave?
Comment by Dirt Digger Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:17 pm
Q1: “Are Statehouse Republicans doomed here? If so, for how long?”
A1: Doomed. In many cases, the Tea Party wing of the party held their noses and held their fire in the interests of helping a conservative wave sweep through Springfield on Election Day. But when the swearing-in is over, they will have little to show for their compromises, so they will be much less willing to compromise in the future. In addition, the Tea Party folks will be emboldened by their congressional victories and the candidates that they sent to Washington.
As a result, the IL-GOP’s “Tea Party problem” will only become more troublesome over the next two years. So while Statehouse Republicans are trying to convince moderate voters that they aren’t right-wing wacos, the Tea Party — from supporters, to funders, to Congress-critters — will be shouting from the rooftops, “We are the Real Republicans™!”
I hesitate to guess how long it will be until the GOP’s fortunes get better because I think it’ll be at least two more years before their fortunes stop getting worse.
Q2: “Either way, what should legislative Republicans do now?”
A2: Juvenile justice reform. The current system of is expensive, ineffective and disproportionately hammers brown kids. And juvenile justice reform is a “Nixon goes to China” stunt that could save the state money and make our streets safer (And might stave off the permanent loss of the state’s Latino vote) which wouldn’t be a terribly bad position for center-right Republican candidates in Illinois.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:19 pm
If it were me, I would throw Cross under the bus and try to work with the Dem’s on solutions.
Comment by Ahoy Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:19 pm
Doomed…no. Severely hamstrung for the next 12 years, absolutely, although I wouldn’t rule out a takeover of the mansion in four years which would make them relevant again.
What should they do now? They should vote no. Not on tax increases, no on pension bond schemes, no on cuts. No on everything. If the dems want to run the show let them, and don’t get fooled by this “what is your plan bs”. They are in the minority, they don’t set the agenda, they don’t need to come up with the plans.
They shouldn’t give Madigan, Cullerton or Quinn one vote on any issue unless they show them a map with at least has some semblamce of fairness. Otherwise vote no. Democrats have a majority, let them take all the tough votes. If that means their silly little bill for the local constituent stays in rules committee, then so be it. At this point they have nothing to lose. The Dems say the GOP is the party of No, so they should prove them right. I think a whole lot of GOP voters sent a whole lot of new faces to DC (and even some to Springfield) to say NO a little more. So do it.
Now this isn’t the best thing for the mess that is now our state government, but that wasn’t the question was it?
Comment by Jaded Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:21 pm
Republicans in this state fail because they carry the national Republican banner, versus a more targeted banner for moderates & conservatives in Illinois.
Republicans are not doomed if they run to the center of the political spectrum on social issues, which could happen as soon as next year in the GA, if they so choose. If there is anything that can be learned from Sen. Kirk’s win last week in Illinois, it’s that the people of Illinois are conservative in name, but moderates on social issues. If the Republicans muted the Democrats on most, if not all, social issues, and clearly drew the line to separate themselves on fiscal stewardship of our state, they would have a chance at being given the keys to drive this state once again.
Comment by Run to the Center Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:21 pm
I mostly agree with Team Sleep, although I would add that with the overall horrendous showing by House and Senate Republican candidates in a “wave” year, both caucuses need to re-evaluate how they’re running their campaigns. Pretty hard to explain why Republicans won every targeted congressional seat, but just won a few state legislative seats at the same time. It’s obviously not working, and if they change nothing with Obama on the ticket in two years, they will be absolutely destroyed.
I think the answer to the question is yes, they are doomed for at least four years. The only chance Republicans have of winning is the off-year elections. By then, Quinn and the Dems will have had four more years to finish the destruction of the state budget that they started eight years ago, possibly with maybe a pension system ever-closer to collapse for good measure. Add on a tax increase, and they’ll have another shot at the governor’s office in four years. Still, I’m not planning to hold my breath.
Comment by Unions Won It For Quinn Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:22 pm
Run to the center has a point.
The ILGOP doesn’t get that right right social policies don’t win elections in Illinois. Just look at the comments here on Quinn’s ads on social issues. The right claimed that those ads were a waste. They never saw that the ads were
going to win the election for Quinn. The GOP-types here never understood the electorate.
On the other hand, give us fiscal conservative, socially liberal candidates and then the GOP would have a chance. I couldn’t care less who decides to marry, and I think if a woman is raped or the victim of incest she should be allowed to have an abortion. Give me candidates who share those views and who want to cut the budget, and they’ve got my vote.
Further, the ILGOP (and Cook County GOP) is also failing to try to reach potential voters in Cook County. There are people like me who grab the Dem primary ballot because the GOP does not give us a choice. Just because we vote Dem in the primary does not mean that we are hard-core Dem. They commpletely fail to look at demographics to see who, on paper, might be on their side and then attempt to reach out to those voters.
Those “lakefront liberals” might become lakefront Republicans if we had a real choice.
Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:43 pm
Doomed if they keep the ‘No’ vote for everything. That takes little effort towards formng a solution. They can do very well if they develop some moderate leaders with no far right leanings that can be jumped all over. They can keep saying ‘No’ about the budget all they want, but make a clear distinction between spending limits/cuts and revenue increases. They would get far better mileage with some moderate approaches that actually help solve the problem. The last thing they need is to go ‘No’ on a tax increase, then find the increase moves Illinois from a low to an average tax burden total and the economy starts to improve.
Comment by zatoichi Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:49 pm
No, I don’t think they are doomed. Never underestimate the ability of the Illinois Democrats to shoot themselves in the foot. Had the Republicans not shot themselves in both feet in this last election, ie; elected Brady instead of Dillard in the primary, I think the outcome would have been totally different.
I wish there was a way to come up with a map that would show votes cast liberal vs moderate vs conservative. And another map showing votes cast Democrat vs Republican. I think the former map would better illustrate how Illinois voters cast their ballots, so I don’t know that a strict Democrat/Republican district map would do as much harm since it is not known which moderate Democrats would vote for a Republican candidate instead of a liberal Democratic candidate.
The Republicans just need to do what they can to get Illinois out of the fiscal mess it is in. They really need to amp up the push to do this. Put Mike Madigan on the spot. They need to push bills that get more revenue into the state and they need to block or refuse to act on any other fluff bills that the Democrats like to push to make themselves look good. Even though they don’t have the members to get the bills through they have to make it THEIR agenda to be very visible trying to fix the problem. They need to take the setting of the agenda out of Mike Madigan’s hands. They must go on the offensive and make it the Democrats who are dragging their feet. If they become the party of solutions they will do well in 2012.
Comment by Irish Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:50 pm
In short, try to build on that powerhouse Downstate base that came through on Tuesday and get organized in Cook County. The Cook suburbs and the Far NW and SW sides are prime growth potential.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:51 pm
The way, and it’s a longshot, to save redistricting is to have a “citizen’s movement” for a computer map and pray that Quinn bites on it.
Comment by kj Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 12:52 pm
No, I don’t think they are doomed. First of all, a super-majority of Democrats in Illinois means pure Democratic policy. This, in turn, means Illinois continues to circle down the drain economically and ethically. Eventually there will be a big enough lash-back to get the governor’s mansion to switch, and probably more Assembly spots then one would first think.
If, miraculously, Democratic policies somehow start becoming effective in Illinois, then who would care about the R’s? Not likely, though. We’re getting deeper in debt, creating worse business environments, and failing to make payments to a host of educational, social, and private entities. I expect to see more of this. False promises for things we can’t afford will only (hopefully!!!) get the Dems so far.
Comment by Liandro Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:02 pm
Agreed with Liandro… we’re about to witness further decay with the deficit, basic service cuts, etc. Things will get so bad that eventually they’ll turn in Illinois - just a little later than the national tide.
Comment by S Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:04 pm
I don’t know if doomed is the right word, but I think they’re relegated to minority status for 12 years or so.
People who think the map will be substantially similar to what it is now don’t know much about drawing a map. It’s about demographic trends and where they’re going, and in this case, the trend ain’t Republicans’ friend. Downstate is depopulating, so there will be less seats in the Republican stronghold. The burbs will be carved with the city to create Dem districts. Look for something like 40-45 heavily Republican seats (R index > 60%) and 73-78 seats that are somewhat-to-very Democratic (D index 51% to 70%+). Dems won’t win all of those seats in 2012, but they’ll be drawn in such a way as to account for population shifts later in the decade. Look for something like a 72-75 member Dem caucus by 2020.
Bonus: Republicans have been the party of no here for what, a decade? How’s that worked out? They need to be adults, sit at the table and offer solutions - and votes - rather than stomping their feet and crying. If they don’t, doomed may be the right word. Repubs hoping for a gubernatorial backstop in four years may be engaging in wishful thinking. If Quinn runs again and is weak, Lisa may be there. If he doesn’t run, she surely will be.
Comment by Thoughts... Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:05 pm
And Ahoy is right - Cross needs to go. The sheer symbolism of golfing on election day rather than rolling up his sleeves should be reason enough. But, if it’s not, then the moribund HRO should seal his fate. I’m doubtful that happens though.
Comment by Thoughts... Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:06 pm
Believe it or not, but the margin Mike Madigan enjoys in 2011 will be a lot more manageable than a “veto-proof” majority for several reasons.
1) it’s impossible to “save” 71 democratic seats in re-districting year. I think Mike Madigan was miserable when he had a large and unyieldy majority. In my opinion, there is such a thing as too large a majority.
2) The smaller the caucus, the more he can pull in Tom Cross to vote for “unpleasant” issues. “Look, Tom, I only have 55 democrats willing to stick their neck out. You’ll have to come up with 5 votes from your side….”
3) The political staff is too thin when there are too many democrats in the House caucus. You can do more with less, as it were.
Comment by Him Say Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:07 pm
To the Bonus Question:
The Republicans need to: a) raise more money, b) recruit better candidates, c) develop a ground game and work it, and d) have the good sense to pull out and reallocate assets when a candidate is coming up short. That’s what Speaker Madigan does and that’s why he wins. He can beat any marginal republican in a swing districts because he has the discipline to stick to the game plan.
Comment by Him Say Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:11 pm
“Doomed…no. Severely hamstrung for the next 12 years, absolutely.”
I think that about sums it up properly.
As for where they should go from here, I think Cross should get the axe ASAP.
Comment by ChrisChicago82-Independent Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:12 pm
Between the new map and the tea party issue that you correctly point out in your syndicated newspaper column, the Republicans will have a difficult time for at least the next ten years.
Not much they can do.
Comment by (618) Democrat Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:12 pm
What’s the difference between “doomed” and “severely hamstrung for 12 years?” That’s picking fly stuff out of pepper.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:19 pm
I would say doomed for the next 2 years, and most liekely longer without som extreme strategy changes.
The GOP has done very well in IL when it stuck to its moderate members and viewpoints. In IL, and elsewhere, the GOP started focusing on its conervative right base uner the beleife the country had come around to their view point.
The probem is the voters who tend to put people in office are the independents and moderates. Mnay of them where in a toss the bums out mood, but still found themselves preferring the bums they new to some of the more extreme viewpoints. The GOP should have swept IL and the Senate on the federal level.
Had they gone to their IL roots and run more people like Dillard, this would have been a blow out year. Right now, they hav underperformed.
Kirk was a moderate and did well. I am fascinatd by he current position of if your not onservaive on everything we want, then we dont want you. The idea that getting some of that you want, but not all, is bad, has undermined the GOP.
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:35 pm
Doomed, no.
Thanks to the budget and other issues the next few years are not going to be fun it state government. The best thing the GOP could do at this point is let the Democrats fight among themselves for a while.
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:38 pm
party of no is bad governance and bad politics. why not give dems a few tax/borrowing votes yet just make the dems wear the jacket for it come election time anyway?
Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:42 pm
-Are Statehouse republicans doommed?–
Only for then next 12 years. I can’t imagine how awesome the computer software is that the Madigan will use to help with redistricting. But, considering the national dialogue, the GOP will never be a “super-minority” even after the remap. So, essentially, the State gop will be playing the same role that it has for the last 14 years (i.e, Ocassionally, the gop will have influence on a few issues brought up after May, etc.)
—–What should the GOP Do?—–
On the plus side, they now have 5 election cycles to get that fair map admendment in place prior to 2020.
Comment by Cuban Pilot Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:44 pm
Let’s not forget that if just 9,707 people (0.00262% of the 3,692,348 ballots cast for Gov. and 0.00283 of the 3,424,211 cast for Quinn & Brady) had voted for Brady instead of Quinn, we’d be having a completely different conversation at the moment.
With the emergence of the tea party sending Kinzinger, etc. to Congress, I wouldn’t day that Republicans are doomed. Especially since Dems. drew the last map. Illinoisans are dissatisfied at the moment and it’s only going to get worse unless entitlement programs are reformed.
That actually creates FAR more problems for Democrats and their base than Republicans in Illinois.
Taxes will go up, but not enough to maintain current funding levels for the next 4 years. Plus, IN, OH, etc. all just voted for Govs. that plan to impose fiscal discipline and maintain or lower tax levels.
Taxes go up in IL, taxes go down everywhere else = competitive disadvantage for IL (though we still have lots to offer). This makes it more difficult to generate additional tax revenue through job creation, since our neighbors offer lower tax and labor rates.
Let’s not forget that each side has trouble to deal with here.
The question is, will the GOP cave in the face of adversity? Or will they let Dems. hang themselves?
Time will tell…
Comment by S Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:45 pm
I was under the impression that Quinn wanted to “reform” the remap process and make it “more fair.” At least that was his position prior to the election. He gave that up and got really nothing in return for it.
All those state senators and state representatives that threw him under the bus and refused to pose for signature with him now need for him to sign off on a new gerrymandered map.
What’s to stop Quinn from flexing his new found muscle on this issue in order to get what he wants elsewhere. He already has posters printed calling him the “jobs governor.” He’s going to make Illinois more “business friendly” by continuing down the same path as the last 8 years?
I think the populist Quinn that everyone remembered will reemerge to the shock of both political parties.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:47 pm
taxes go down everywhere else
Where?
Comment by dave Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:48 pm
Yes, but who will be controlling the various U.S. non-state territories, such as American Samoa, District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, and others?
Comment by Squideshi Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:50 pm
It’s always funny to hear that the ’solution’ to the Republican’s problems are to become more like the Democrats.
The difficulty for the Republicans in Illinois has been and will be the corrupt Chicago machine. It has been able to deliver votes in numbers large enough to eclipse the voices from the rest of the state.
It will soon become clear whether the new boss will be as effective as the old boss in buying the loyalties of the usual suspects with the dwindling pile of taxpayer dollars. How will the special interests position themselves for a piece of the shrinking pie?
It would be wise for the Republicans to make sure the Democrats wear the jacket for the new taxation that seems to be looming in the future.
Comment by Plutocrat03 Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:56 pm
Ahoy said it best Throw Cross and Tebaggers under the bus and deal. Despite the propoganda the dems have not been vindictive against those that never vote for them otherwise I would really be nervous in Macomb and Carbondale.
Rich where were those legislative seats losses? The south?
Comment by western illinois Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:56 pm
I keep thinking Democrats are doomed, and then I read stuff like Plutocrat03 [Summary: “We are doing nothing wrong. Just up against a corrupt Chicago Democrat”] and realize that the Dems likely will hold power for 50 years.
Great Pluto. Stay the course. Don’t change a thing.
Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:59 pm
Republican lawmakers should not even bother going to Springfield. Save taxpayers the expense. Go get real jobs and return the state salaries and per diems to the state.
It’s now official. The GOP is completely irrelevant where state politics is concerned.
By returning taxpayer money they would have been paid for being ineffective, at least they can do something Republican.
Comment by just sayin' Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:02 pm
The GOP is doomed because PQ will have the whole state running so smoothly in a few months to years that the GOP will hahahahahahahahahahahah, that is sooooo funny - PQ will have the state running smoothly HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.
Seriously, the GOP has to figure out how to slate candidates who are 1)not from DuPage Cty and 2) do not have conservative positions that many folk in NE Illinois are squeamish about and 3)have a better ground game in NE Illinois (you know, where most of the voters live). Tall order, no?
Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:03 pm
switch parties.
Comment by Moving to Oklahoma Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:04 pm
Its always funny to hear that any republican who is not a far right conservative is a democrat, and anyone who does not share every extreme point of view is headed in the wrong direction.
It would be weired to consider that *gasp* th world is more grey then black and white. All 5000 years of it.
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:07 pm
Those of you holding out hopes that the GOP legislative caucuuses are not finished for the decade are ignoring basic facts. You also ignore what public policy devastation this brings to the State.
The GOP legislative election ground game was, is, and will be vastly overrun by the Dems — especially in Chicago and Cook — and increasingly in the close-in areas of the collar counties. The GOP no longer has the talent, and I do not see it developing in the pipelines. The Carter Hendrens are retired and gone, replaced by people who have never understood what it takes to win or serve in the majority. The “bloodsport” capability and spirit that Democrats have in Illinois with regard to state legislative races is met by “good guy” attitudes on the part of GOP managers and leaders.
Next year’s map will devastate the capability of the GOP caucuses. Those who posted above apparently do not understand the mechanics of drawing these districts, and the tremendous favorable legal presumption which will attach to a map bill passed and signed by the Governor. Close-in GOP members will lose their careers as the Dem districts “finger” out deep into the suburbs. The only GOP folks left will be far-flung suburbanites with 90% GOP districts, and rural folks who aren’t close to the union strongholds. The Dems have the intention to make Illinois into the bluest state in the union — and they will. The GOP risks being in the superminority in both chambers for the decade. Essentially, the GOP legislative caucuses will be in the mionority until a new map arrives in 2113, and Madigan retires.
GOP Staffers, unless you are nearing a great pension, head to DC or the private sector now — the best of you can get on in DC over the next few weeks if you try. Don’t waste your intellectual talents on a declining situation in a state that is going to be structurally bankrupt for the decade. Don’t think you will be able to author some great compromise on your special issue. Don’t think you are headed for a suite on the second floor. You will be on the losing side of tax and spend bills that will intensify the redistribution of wealth from your constituents to the Democrat interests. You will work for a joke-of-a-state that your colleagues at ALEC and NCSL will sneer at. You will still be in 212 or the carrols on 3 ten years from now. Springfield will continue to fill with even more surface parking lots, big box stores, and scenic commercial boulevards.
GOP members, plan to head to the exits at the end of your next term. You are going to get your heads slowly sawed-off by Madigan. There just is not much fun making one or two deals a year in order to bring home pathetic crumbs to your districts. Just ask your returning colleague David Harris to describe how much fun that was during his first period of service (it takes a real patriot like him to return to the circumstances in Springfield). For those of you who choose to stay for the decade, you will have such little leverage that you will not really be able to bargain for much (perhaps you can make an occasional deal with the Black Caucus). Because of that, I counsel that you should probably become the party of no. Become fierce obstructionists. When the state eventually goes into practical bankruptcy, you can at least have the simple pride of not having contributed directly to the outcome.
If you are a citizen, now is probaby the time for you to consider moving from the Land of Lincoln. The time when Illinois presented great economic and public policy opportunities — the days when Sam Gove and Jim Nolan expounded on the mighty possibilities of the center of the Midwest — are gone. If you stay, you will render unto Caesar an ever-increasing percentage of your hard-earned dollars to pay AFSCME contracts and transfer payments. You will send your children to schools and that cannot replace their roofs, much less keep up with the rest of the world. By the time you need it, your “world class” university will have probably dropped to around #189 on the US News list — but will have the largest contingent of Vice-Presidents. You will inhabit the Flint, Michigan of 1978 — the Pittsburg of 1971 — the NYC at the time of its bankruptcy –the Soviet Union during the days of its decline.
In all, the voters of the State of Illinois have knowingly chosen to continue to run the Ship of State into an iceberg — hoping they will first die drinking champaign at taxpayer expense in their imaginary first class lounge. The Chicago Tribune warned them all. No sane GOP member, staffer, or voter is obliged to ride it out. The lifeboats look very good right now.
Comment by chad Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:07 pm
dave, allow me to clarify and provide a reference for you:
“The outcome bodes ill for Illinois’ business prospects. All around us, state governments will be cutting taxes and reducing regulations while their Republican governors prowl the highways and byways looking for companies to snatch away from us.”
Chuck Sweeney’s Rockford-Register Star article dated 11/06/10, found at: http://www.rrstar.com/insight/x1951115864/Chuck-Sweeny-Illinois-still-true-blue-surrounded-by-a-sea-of-red
There are other independent sources stating the same if you care to look. That’s all I had time to pull up at the moment.
Comment by S Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:08 pm
Oh god, I just read some of the comments on here. The delusion continues. Wake up folks.
Things go from bad to worse with redistricting. That’s a given. And get real, Obama on the ballot in 2012 means more bad news for Republicans. Don’t kid yourself.
And just wait to see how many Republicans vote yes on the tax increase. Forget about the party of no. It’s going to be the party that can’t kiss up enough to Mike Madigan because all they care about is not be redistricted out to extinction.
You’re going to see Republicans going out to pick up Mike’s dry cleaning.
“Hey Skip and Tom, you missed a spot over here on the speaker’s car.”
Comment by just sayin' Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:11 pm
S.,
Maybe because they do things like sell the toll roads.
Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:11 pm
All around us, state governments will be cutting taxes
And again, I ask where? What state governments are cutting taxes?
Quoting a random opinion piece doesn’t tell us anything.
Comment by dave Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:21 pm
Part of the problem is this also.
4,352 Illinois Government Retirees Receiving Pensions Over $100,000; A 20% Increase From FY2009
http://www.ntui.org/news-releases/4352-illinois-government-retirees-receiving-pensions-over-100000-a-20-increase-from-fy2009
Comment by DoubleDown Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:22 pm
Louis said:
===What’s to stop Quinn from flexing his new found muscle on this issue in order to get what he wants elsewhere.===
Oh, I don’t know. Maybe the fact that Cullerton and Madigan will make him commit to a map before he gets any of the votes he wants?
Comment by Thoughts... Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:23 pm
LS
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:31 pm
Some folks are in denial here.
The GOP won big nationwide — a high-water mark.
Across the Midwest, the GOP won big.
The Downstate GOP numbers were off the chart.
Brady left a lot on the field in the suburbs. Kirk got just enough. Turnout was much better in solid D areas. You’ve gotta sell it.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:35 pm
dave, enjoy:
“The result of a significant tax reform, Ohio has substantially lowered the cost of doing business in the state - with the lowest taxes in the Midwest by 2010.”
There’s more, too… from many more sources…
http://www.ohiomeansbusiness.com/incentives-and-tax-reform/
Comment by S Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:39 pm
Interesting S. The two best states on that list had Dem govs. Seems like the study shows that Dems mean low taxes.
Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:42 pm
Just Sayin’ comment “Republican lawmakers should not even bother going to Springfield. Save taxpayers the expense. Go get real jobs and return the state salaries and per diems to the state.”
Let’s take this a step further. Send all dem reps home as well and let madigan do as he pleases.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:43 pm
The statehouse Republicans are doomed for as long as they ignore the entire state. Their 101 county strategy lost again, and will continue to do so. Don’t believe me? Fine, read the census numbers. You better believe Madigan and the Dems will.
Skeeter nailed it earlier, though part of me wishes he hadn’t. If the GOP would invest in recruiting candidates in Chicago, for the GA, for Alderman, Mayor, etc., you’d be surprised at the number of voters who would love a choice here. The GOP can continue to ignore Chicago and be doomed for a decade, or it can spend this lost decade building itself in the city. It’s your choice.
And as others have pointed out: for 30 years the GOP nominated social liberals who were fiscal moderates. Guess what, you won a lot of races then and held the Governor’s mansion for most of my life. The next social conservative elected to the Governor’s office will be the first. As a party, the GOP has to ask itself why that is the case.
My hunch: if you can find a social conservative from Chicago who can win votes in the city, you have a shot at getting this person elected Governor. You’d better start looking for that candidate now, while you have some time on your hands.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:47 pm
If by “doomed” you mean the GOP is highly unlikeley to gain a majority in either House before 2022 at the earliest, yeah, they’re doomed.
They can have a chance at statewide office, since gerrymandering won’t matter at that level. And somke areas will produce GOP reps and senators.
The tougher question is whether the GOP will ever be able to deny a 3/5 majority in either House. It would appear that they will only be able to do so in years where there is a trend their way.
The Dems hould pretty much own this state for the next 10 years–let’s see if they can do better than the last 10.
Comment by Marty Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:48 pm
Doomed? We are all doomed if there is not some kind of challenge to the status quo Spfld government. Maybe it is hopeless, maybe we cannot overcome the votes of the entitlement recipients who are threatened with the loss of same if they don’t elect a Democrat or the union or IEA member who actually believes that they would lose their job and/or pension if they vote Republican. Some must tell the people that the emperor has no clothes. There are three types of people in the state right now. Those who make things happen, those who watch things happen, and those who will wonder what happened. Perhaps we should become the Cassandra party. I am unabashedly Republican, not because I dislike Democrats (I really don’t) but because I love this State of Illinois. I am tired of my state being the butt of late nite talk show jokes. I beleive in Illinois, it’s people and our important place in the Nation. Scoff if you will, but it keeps me going and will continue to cause me to fight nonsense when I see it.
Comment by Lisle Mike Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:49 pm
The bizarre geometric shapes that will emerge from the democrat controlled legislature will be a sight to behold that’s for sure !
Comment by Justica O ! Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:49 pm
Republicans will never be elected in Chicago. That’s just wishful thinking. Chicagoans are hardcore democrats. Many of my neighbors are social conservatives. They talk a good game. But I would say 90% have never and never will vote for a republican. Straight ticket democrat. Much easier not to have to think. Plus you’ll always get that garbage can.
Comment by Windy City Mama Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 2:55 pm
S - thats one state, and one that has already lowered taxes. And it only talks about capital investments.
Further, I notice that IL is second in terms of effective tax rates. Ohio also has higher income taxes for everyone making over $20,000 a year.
So IL is so bad, that it is second best? Is that your point? And it is so bad, that it has a lower income tax than OH?
And due to your support of OH’s tax policies, I assume that you are okay with, and supportive of, a progressive income tax?
Comment by dave Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:02 pm
Skeet, that would be nice if it were true… until you recall that:
1 of those 2 Dem. Govs. (IL) plans to raise taxes.
The 2nd Dem. (OH), was replaced by a Rep. campaigning on a platform of lower taxes and fiscal discipline.
Regardless, that’s irrelevant. The point was that surrounding states elected candidates on the premise that they will impose fiscal discipline and lower taxes. Meanwhile, IL will be raising ours.
Higher labor rates, higher taxes, etc. than one’s competitors make it more difficult to attract new businesses - though we’ll still (hopefully) many, since this is an amazing state.
It’s a basic point, not meant ot be argumentative. Unless the basic rules of econ. have changed since Nov. 2nd.
IL Dems. will have to figure out a way to pay for many of the programs their base expects them to protect. That is becoming increasingly difficult in the state of IL amidst increasing competition from our neighbors.
Comment by S Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:09 pm
what Wordslinger said.
although, actually, I’m more worried about all the other states where the legislatures turned Republican. this could have a long
lasting impact on progressive politics. why, oh why, did the Obama operation lose control of the message?
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:12 pm
dave, you neglect to take into account the totality of circumstances… for example:
- IL is the only state in the country that taxes prescription drugs.
- IL is the only state in the Midwest that taxes food purchased for home consumption (aka groceries).
- IL ranks 48th in job growth.
- etc, etc, etc.
We need to come together as a state and begin developing rational plans to deal with our fiscal situation. The status quo is unsustainable, the Dem. majority must begin making some difficult decisions, and we are facing increased economic competition from surrounding states.
In all sincerity, I hope that Gov. Quinn surprises us all and does amazing things for the state. But let’s not turn a blind eye to the reality of developments in surrounding states.
The Dems. have some difficult choices to make, compounded by an unfavorable economy. Those choices will create additional discontent that may well play into Republican favor over the next few years.
That’s one factor among many (new map, etc.) and a pretty straightforward one at that.
Comment by S Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:24 pm
===- IL is the only state in the country that taxes prescription drugs.
- IL is the only state in the Midwest that taxes food purchased for home consumption (aka groceries).===
Where are you getting your numbers? Illinois has no state sales tax on almost all groceries and prescriptions/medicines. Locals can tax them, but there is no state tax.
You’re done for a while, man.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:31 pm
1.) “Illinois is the only state to also tax prescription drugs.” – January 2009, Wisconsin Legislative Fiscal Bureau, Informational Paper 6: Sales and Use Tax, page 13
http://legis.wisconsin.gov/lfb/Informationalpapers/6_sales%20and%20use%20tax.pdf
2.) “Illinois is the only state with a sales tax that taxes prescription drugs.” – May 2007, Illinois Comptroller Fiscal Focus, pages 12-13
http://www.apps.ioc.state.il.us/ioc-pdf/FFWeb0507.pdf
Comment by S Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:35 pm
dave, you neglect to take into account the totality of circumstances… for example:
As do you.
IL…
- is 49th or 50th in the country in state workers per cap
- IL has one of the lowest taxation levels in the country
- IL has one of the lowest spending levels per cap in the country
- IL is one of the only states that doesn’t tax retirement income
I could go on too…
There are differing opinions about how to stimulate economic growth in a recession, but there are not differing facts on the spending and taxation levels in IL. IL is a low spending state, and a low taxing state.
Comment by dave Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:38 pm
S, you cannot read or you are reading only what you want to read…
===The 6.25% rate does not apply to all goods, however. Food and both prescription and non-prescription drugs are taxed at 1% with the 1%
revenue collected on food and drugs paid to local governments.===
It’s for the locals. The state gets none of it.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:38 pm
Good catch, Rich. As Moynihan so poignantly pointed out, there is a difference between how much latitude one can take with facts compared to opinions.
As a fact, Illinois does NOT have a high state and local tax burden. This is indisputable. You can parse words and numbers and debate whether our state and local tax burden is “about average” or “low”, but no way using real numbers can you get to “high”.
What is “high” is the degree of regressivity of our state and local tax burden.
Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:42 pm
- S - Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 1:45 pm said:
“Let’s not forget that if just 9,707 people (0.00262% of the 3,692,348 ballots cast for Gov. and 0.00283 of the 3,424,211 cast for Quinn & Brady) had voted for Brady instead of Quinn, we’d be having a completely different conversation at the moment.”
Move the decimal point 2 places left when adding a % sign
Comment by Stunod Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:45 pm
Err, RIGHT not left…
Comment by Stunod Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:45 pm
Depressed in terms of statehouse numbers and also(temporarily) depressed in spirit? Yes. Doomed as a party? No. Not in a state where many races ended up split almost half and half between Dem and Republican voters.
Despite the inevitable district composition advantages in different areas of the state, in close elections for either party it is still the ground game that rules, and the R’s were out-hustled in several races where only a few votes, or in the case of Brady a few thousand votes, would have made the difference. I know important lessons were learned and are being digested.
Wordslinger has it exactly right and Skeeter touched on something important, too, with respect to what might happen in the future if R’s actually fielded serious candidates in some areas they have traditionally ignored. Also, any R candidates who continue to focus solely on R primary voter lists from past elections are idiots.
Now, with respect to the new map: Creative gerrymandering is a two edged sword which can cause very unintended consequences– such as sclerotic “entitled” lifetime career politicians who do more harm than good to their party but are almost impossible to get rid of, or conditional mismatches such as befell Mr. Phil Hare in his “safe” Dem district where he was blissfully lulled to complacency until it was too late.
Lastly, sometimes mere symbolism that “change is happening” is important. A humbled Cross should step down from leadership (just as Pelosi needs to graciously step down.)
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:46 pm
And I legitimately did not recall that portion of the paragraph. I didn’t mean to throw that out there knowlingy, and I apologize for it. I thought that IL was the only state to tax prescription drugs - it is, but with that caveat.
Wouldn’t have put that out there if I remembered. And that is a good catch, Rich,
Comment by S Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:51 pm
Controlling the map is a fearsome power. Look for the number of GOP legislators from the county of Cook to continue to dwindle as it did in the last decade.
Look for more Dem districts in the collar counties, including DuPage.
Cross will never be Speaker & Radagno will never be senate pres.
Comment by reformer Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 3:57 pm
Marty/Chad/Him Say took the words out of my mouth. All the heavy lifting is going to be done in the next GA and redistricting will be the hammer wielded to get things done.
Absent winning control of a chamber, all the GOP gains did was allow the Dems to collapse more districts through redistricting without dinging a Dem legislator.
Comment by Robo Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 4:04 pm
Some of these commenters sound a bit hysterical.
You are a Republican and not a Democrat because you “love this state,” Lisle Mike? That’s funny because wasn’t it the Republican candidate for governor who wanted Illinois to be more like Indiana and Tennessee? Please. No party or political ideology loves this state more than the other one. And both of our party’s politicians love themselves more than this state. Period.
And Chad, I hope you are far away from sharp objects with how fatalistic you are about everything given the Republican losses. Because we elected Pat Quinn then Illinois citizens should suddenly flee the state because its the new Soviet Union? Because he wants to our low income taxes by a point?
Hate to break it you but Republicans and Republican ideology don’t have any magic elixir to fix all budgetary and employment woes any more than Democrats do. For example, red as red can be no income tax-having Texas has a $25 billion budget deficit they need to close now. And Wisconsin is shuttering a rail car factory and closing the book on hundreds of jobs because they elected a Republican who doesn’t support federal transportation funding.
It’s just not as simple as Republicans = wonderful prosperity and Democrats = fallen empire.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 4:07 pm
“It’s just not as simple as Republicans = wonderful prosperity and Democrats = fallen empire.”
You’re right about that, but the question was are the IL Statehouse Republicans doomed. For the next 12 years, 90% likely.
Since the cut back election House Republicans have essentially placed their hopes on Dems imploding or a national tsunami. Not a recipe for success. Senate Republicans did well until the 2000 map and now there will be two map cycles that will continue to splinter their GOP base in the suburbs.
And don’t forget IL Congressional districts are under the GA’s redistricting jurisdiction. You’re not going to see another Lipinski-Hastert truce any time soon.
There might be a GOP Governor in that timeframe, but he’ll have to deal with the majority party in the GA, like Thompson had to. But hey, at least they’ll have a place to get a job.
Comment by Robo Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 4:30 pm
Here is a totally radical idea for the Republicans. They could start thinking about the state’s problems from a policy rather than a political perspective and offer realistic proposals for their solution. I know this sounds totally radical, but what do they have to lose?
Comment by jake Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 5:56 pm
Not doomed, look at the gerrymandered 17th Congressional district. Drawn to ensure Lane Evans seat, his handpicked replacement goes out. Look at IL Senate 55, a total R loon (Reynolds) got 38% of the vote with no money and foot in mouth disease. Focus on running qualified candidates in all districts that will get out and work for victory.
Comment by ourMagician Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 6:04 pm
Republicans should join with independents and third parties to push a referendum to reform the Legislature’s House to expand Representation, and perhaps allow some proportional representation (5% of vote=5% of seats) amongst half the Representatives.
Greens and Libertarians should have been pushing this years ago.
Our Founders had one Rep per 50,000 people, so Illinois’ 13M population should have at least 260 representatives in the IL House. Voters should select Representatives, not vice versa, and rules based computer redistricting (compact, contiguous, respect city/county boundaries, random start point) would be far more trustworthy than a so-called “independent” commission.
Too bad Quinn didn’t just cut Rep’s pay instead of reduce our Representation (and real democracy) many years ago.
Besides, we’ve got the technology to have far more House Representatives than horse and carriage days.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 7:45 pm
I rarely do this but due to my own personal time constraint, “just sayin’” at 2:35 p.m. up above is, sadly, but very realistically, probably not very far from hitting the bull’s eye on this subject…the bottom line when you are clearly an Il. legislator out of power at a time like this–find SOMEhow or somewhere to go along with MM and/or J. Cullerton on something important to them in the coming year (yes, even holding your nose for a yes vote on a “revenue surcharge” to save education/lower property taxes, if absolutely necessary) and, if they’re in an overall good mood, they MAY save your safe GOP district, or at worst, allow it to become competitive for you so that it’s no longer a gimme for ya. FOR any GOPer who cherishes survival in the next election after the Remap, there’d better be at least SOME give ‘n take, or you’re very well history…best to wake up and smell the coffee now folks….
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 8:28 pm
I meant “just sayin’”s comments at 2:11 p.m…(and not 2:35)oops–gotta go!
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 8:31 pm
GOP is not doomed - yet - but not looking good. Their possible salvation (ironic) is the horrible state of state. But, if they couldn’t capitalize on that in a year like this, what makes anyone think they can do it in a “normal” year?
They should hope that 2012 will produce a wave like 2010 for most other GOPers if they are to have a fighting chance in a year in which more than a few GOP reps and senators will likely see their districts merged with others’.
Comment by Professor Chaos Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 10:31 pm
If the dems can diddle the GOP worse than last time’s congressional map: 11, 15, and especially 17, then this ought to be good….
Comment by Excessively Rabid Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 10:43 pm
What should the GOP do? Nothing. You wanted Dems, you got Dems.
You have had them in total control since 2002 and Illinois has become a workers paradise or tolerance and prosperity hasn’t it?
When the system in Illinois crashes and the surrounding states are prospering the people in Illinois will realize them have been lied to or they will get comfortable with their suffering like they have the corruption in government here.
Comment by Not a GOP problem Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 10:44 pm
Doubledown,
The headline is misleading. If you read the story, the examples cited are NOT state employees getting those exorbitant pensions … it is former school administrators, municipal workers and legislators …
Comment by Retired Non-Union Guy Tuesday, Nov 9, 10 @ 11:09 pm
–What should the GOP do? Nothing. You wanted Dems, you got Dems.–
Must be the head of the GOP GOTV in Cook County last Tuesday.
Great attitude. People actually voted for representation, you know.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 10, 10 @ 1:25 am