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* Mark Brown is his usual astute self…
Noticeably absent from all three [weekend mayoral candidate announcements] were other elected officials. […]
While their hesitancy could prove a factor in all the campaigns, it was particularly noticeable for Davis, selected as the “consensus candidate'’ of a group that had hoped to winnow the field to avoid splitting the black vote.
Ald. Ed Smith (28th), who isn’t seeking re-election, was the only member of the City Council to stand with the veteran congressman, a further indication of a lack of true consensus among the group that had initially narrowed its endorsement to two finalists — former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun and Board of Review Commissioner Larry Rogers Jr. — only to pull the rug out from under them and throw its support to Davis.
Davis needed a large turnout of elected officials from both the South Side and West Side to give a clear indication of widespread support and remove any confusion. His backers said that will come later, but they lost a chance to get off to a big start.
I still don’t understand the Danny Davis choice unless I look at it as yet another in the endless skirmishes between the oldtimers and the up and comers. The oldtimers have won almost every one of those battles. Obama is the exception, not the rule. And even he lost to Bobby Rush, remember.
* Although Rev. Sen. James Meeks’ habitual use of racial epithets probably didn’t do him much good…
On “Chicago Tonight,” State Sen. Meeks said for the first time that he regrets his repeated use of the N-word to describe African-American allies of Mayor Daley.
“Sure, I regret it,” Meeks said. “I don’t regret being passionate about the subject of education. And for those who would accuse me of using the N-word, I would just want to find any speech they’ve made about education, period.”
Yeah, that makes sense. Sheesh. A refresher…
* Meanwhile, the Teamsters Union commissioned a poll of likely Chicago voters Nov. 8 through 14 with a +/-3.7 percent margin of error. Rahm Emanuel has a big lead…
36 Rahm Emanuel
14 Rep. Danny Davis
13 Moseley Braun
10 Attorney Gery Chico
7 State Sen. James Meeks
4 City Clerk Miguel Del Valle
Among African-Americans…
29 Emanuel
22 Davis
18 Moseley Braun
14 Meeks
2 Chico
1 Del Valle
14 undecided.
Emanuel also leads among whites and Latinos and in all of the city’s congressional districts, according to the poll.
* Emanuel head-to-heads…
Emanuel 54% / Davis 33%
Emanuel 55% / Moseley Braun 32%
* Check out Carol Moseley-Braun’s unfavorables. Not great…
• Gerry Chico 31% Favorable / 16% Unfavorable - 47% Name ID
• Danny Davis 55% Favorable / 24% Unfavorable - 79% Name ID
• Miguel Del Valle 24% Favorable / 13% Unfavorable - 37% Name ID
• Rahm Emanuel 58% Favorable / 29% Unfavorable - 87% Name ID
• James Meeks 34% Favorable / 39% Unfavorable - 73% Name ID
• Carol Moseley Braun 48% Favorable / 42% Unfavorable - 90% Name ID
Her fave/unfaves among blacks are better, but not outstanding at 61-33. But her fave/unfaves among whites are quite bad at 36-55. It’s amazing that she is so disliked after all these years. But, then again, she completely blew it when she had her shot.
Meeks’ unfaves among African-American voters are also relatively high at 36 percent.
* It appears that the residency issue is actually working a bit in Emanuel’s favor…
Chicago voters are aware of the recently-raised residency issues involving Rahm Emanuel, but an overwhelming majority believes he should be allowed to run.
• Almost two-thirds of the electorate is aware of the press reports involving Emanuel’s residency (63%), and - by a greater than 3:1 margin (62% Yes / 20% No) - Chicago voters believe Emanuel meets the residency requirements to run for mayor. In fact, Emanuel’s lead is actually slightly greater among voters who are aware of the residency issues than among those who are not aware.
• Just 24% agree that “because he has spent so much time living outside the city, Emanuel just doesn’t understand the city well enough to be a good mayor”. Almost three-quarters (72%) disagree. [Emphasis added]
The theory is that attacks on his residency are “Machine style” politics, so it helps paint him as the non-Machine guy. That ain’t reality, but it could be the perception.
* TV ads might be able to turn these numbers around, but nobody yet has shown they can raise the cash to do that…
Only 36% of voters agree that, “Emanuel is an opportunist. He left his seat in Congress to work in the White House. Then he abandoned the President to run for Mayor before the difficult mid-term elections. Now, he wants to run for Mayor even though he has not lived here.” A solid majority (59%) disagrees.
Voters also disagree that “Rahm Emanuel’s personality would make it hard for him to get things done as Mayor” (37% Agree/ 50% Disagree).
* Roundup…
* Chicago mayoral filing: Not quite a free-for-all
* Gery Chico Asked for John McCain to Fundraise: GOP Source
* Fire and ice, Meeks and Emanuel, begin the campaign
* U.S. Transportation Secretary on Chicago’s mayoral race: Rahm Emanuel will win
* Burke: Next mayor will be less powerful
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 12:26 pm
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Rahm’s Dead Fish…
… Ready for Delivery.
Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 12:30 pm
If black voters are worried about splitting the vote, they should support majority elections, in the form of either runoff elections or, better yet, Instant Runoff Voting. As a home rule municipality, Chicago could adopt IRV with a referendum.
Comment by Squideshi Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 12:34 pm
===they should support majority elections, in the form of either runoff elections===
Squid, that’s what the mayoral election is.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 12:39 pm
John McCain? Chico just lost my vote.
Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 12:43 pm
I have never been a fan on Meeks and this just cemets my dislike of him. I am donating to Rahm’s campaign now. Thanks Rich.
Comment by Lazy Intern Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 12:44 pm
If you’re running against Rahm, you take support wherever you can find it. The most obvious place is in Washington DC. There are plenty of people with deep pockets who would love to hit back at Rahm. Chico is smart. Smarter still would be to go on Fox News as often as possible. That network will give the right opponent a huge platform to beat up Rahm. Just agree that Rahm is whatever the host says he is and plug your website for online donations.
There’s your fundraising strategy Gery. You can thank me later.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 12:47 pm
Let’s be real; none of these guys has a hope of beating Rahm; this is an elaborate dance to try and wrest future concessions, commitments, and favors for each “challenger” ’s constituency, before gracefully withdrawing and throwing their fund-raising support “for the sake of party unity”.
Meeks is perhaps most transparent of all.
This one will be all about who brings in the most donors.
Comment by Newsclown Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 12:48 pm
I am not surprised that people dislike Braun and Meeks, especially in the black community. Braun let a lot of Black Women down while she was U.S. Senator. Many blacks do not like Meeks. They feel he is too ignorant, partially due to previous controversial statements he has made as shown in the video above.
Comment by JakeCP Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 12:49 pm
The issue is where do the candidates stand on a gambling casino or video poker machines for the city. A majority of citizens oppose. Doug dobmeyer
Comment by doug dobmeyer Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 12:55 pm
Any chances Emanuel can pump up that 36% to a majority and avoid a runoff? Probably not.
That being the case, it looks like there will be Emanuel vs. the Anti-Rahm in the runoff.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 12:57 pm
I would suggest the whole consensus process actually did more harm than good.
Three relatively strong african american candidates is much harder for any to overcome than 10 candidates.
Comment by Jo Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 1:00 pm
== Just 24% agree that “because he has spent so much time living outside the city, Emanuel just doesn’t understand the city well enough to be a good mayor”. ==
No offense, but that’s the completely wrong message to test.
Try this one:
“Rahm Emmanuel used his political connections to rake-in millions running Freddie Mac and as a Wall Street banker, and now he’s relying on clout to run for Mayor. Rahm Emanuel can’t be trusted to end backroom deals and corruption at City Hall.”
If John Doe had rented out for the past two years and lived halfway across the country, no one in his right mind believes he’d be allowed to stay on the ballot, even if it was always his “intent” to return.
BTW, you won’t find intent anywhere in the Election Code regarding candidates and their residency.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 1:14 pm
am i the only voter who hasnt forgotten danny davis’s role in the bizarro rev moon ceremony in dc a few years back? how can anyone take this guy seriously after that?
Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 1:37 pm
hisgirl: Rich mentioned this fiasco this week…I have a close friend who is African American and he says that Danny has had his time and should have exited the political stage a couple of campaigns ago…I couldn’t agree more or in a more polite way…
Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 1:42 pm
hisgirlfriday, you are not. But we might be only a few…
Comment by colby Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 1:53 pm
I also want to point out the Danny Davis may be the only candidate for mayor who does not have a campaign website. If he does have one, then it is really hard to find.
Comment by JakeCP Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 2:09 pm
The only one with a chance to beat Rahm (and its a small one) is Chico. He’ll have enough money to get into a runoff, if none of the three African-American candidates can break from the pack. If he does, then there are two questions. 1: will the losing candidates unite behind him in an “anybody but Rahm” coalition 2: If they do, can he win a majority of the black vote and a nontrivial minority of the white vote. I doubt it, but its not impossible if Rahm’s negatives (which are substantial) get enough media coverage. I actually think Chico may have an easier time getting white votes than black votes in a runoff. But if he can find a way to win the trust of the black community he has a “puncher’s chance.” Easier said than done, but not impossible. I don’t see a path to victory over Rahm for anyone else.
Comment by centrist Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 2:12 pm
Centrist
Chico also has experience in running a large organization during a crisis.But its bad experience he ran Altheimer & Gray into the dissolution . An 88 year old law firm apparently couldn’t survive his leadership what makes you think the City of Chicago could survive.
Comment by fed up Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 2:26 pm
==* Burke: Next mayor will be less powerful==
Not if Rahm wins, Ed! The city council,you included, will fold like a cheap suit and settle for crumbs like they always do.
Rahm will make Little Dick seem like Mother Teresa. Aldermen will be falling all over themselves begging to sell out their constituents for peanuts out of greed and fear of the little giant. Why can’t we elect someone of normal size so we don’t have to deal with the Napoleon complex?
Comment by Bill Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 2:35 pm
===Why can’t we elect someone of normal size so we don’t have to deal with the Napoleon complex?===
Why not elect JRT to Mayor? He’s definitely not little.
Comment by Obamarama Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 2:37 pm
Should’ve picked Larry Rogers. Braun is what she is, Meeks is exciting but volatile, Davis is a legacy pick when people want an activist. For his fundraising woes you could’ve turned Larry Rogers into whatever you wanted him to be: do gooder with a sharp mind, Barack 2.0, racial unifer. Because he’s unknown and would’ve been beholden to the community that selected him you’d've had a blank slate black candidate with no baggage that you could’ve sold.
Comment by hammer Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 2:40 pm
Sandi jackson would be the best person for a consenus candiate.
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 2:53 pm
Ghost,
Sandi Jackson can’t even find her way around her ward without a driver. Put her and Rahm together and they might be able to find (insert name of neighborhood here) if you gave them enough time and gasoline.
The black candidates either seem to be “has beens” or “will nevers”. If they had a candidate with cross racial appeal and less baggage you might get a black mayor. Right now they don’t have that candidate.
Rahm is beatable, but you can’t beat him with the current crop of candidates of any color.
Comment by Irishpirate Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 2:58 pm
Cheryl44 @ 12:43 p.m.:
If that story is true, I’m with you. The story is suspect to me because it cites one anonymous Republican source (not that the GOP would be trying to screw around with someone’s campaign — God knows they’ve NEVER done that…) and notes the Chico campaign’s rather vehement denial. Time will tell on this one.
Comment by Northsider Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 3:26 pm
It’s really sad that the black elected officials are thinking so racially. It’s so 80’s like. In case they haven’t noticed, the electorate has moved on and really could care less what the Mayor’s ethnic background is.
They are painting themselves into a corner. Compete for the whole city-no one cares about race this time unless you make them care.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 3:27 pm
Does anyone know who gathered the candidates’ petitions? The numbers being tossed around are pretty high. Have many ward organizations lined up with the candidates?
Comment by Oakparker Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 3:51 pm
Tom Dart….change your mind, PLEASE!!!!!
Comment by Who Cares Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 4:04 pm
James Meeks should be ashamed to call himself a Christian. I would never ever ever ever vote for that man.
Comment by whitemale Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 4:31 pm
PJW: If you look at how different groups voted in 2008 and 2010, it is obvious which groups vote overwhelmingly based upon race vs. candidate qualifications, etc. I don’t know if it was that bad in the 80’s. I believe that SCOTUS Chief Judge John Roberts once made a statement to effect that the best way to end discrimination is to stop discriminating. Mind blowing insight and logic when you really consider it.
Comment by Logic not emotion Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 4:44 pm
If the council isn’t powerful enough to find a halfway decent opponent to Rahm I fail to see how its governmental capacity will be any different.
Comment by Dirt Digger Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 5:12 pm
Could Chico be trying to run as a crypto-Republican to try and combine GOP and Latino votes to get in the runoff?
Comment by kj Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 5:22 pm
James Meeks seems like a decent man but should’ve done the noble thing and defer to the older, wiser, calm, well-balnced experienced statesman who everybody likes and respects: Danny Davis. But he stubbornly refused and there’s likely no way he’ll drop out now. Braun has been washed up for years but is in denial and can’t win–she should see a shrink or better yet, a minister– how’s about Rev. Meeks? Because if the two of them don’t do THAT in a hurry and defer to the savvy, most deserving of all the candidates, and dedicated servant of the people, the Congressman, and do the right thing, and graciously withdraw NOW, start planning the inauguration party for (and I can hardly believe I’d ever be writing it) Mayor Rahm. The numbers here don’t lie. With Danny alone, the race is on, and closer to 36% to 34% with weeks and weeks to go–like with Quinn, (and Harold in ‘83) make no mistake–if that miraculously were to happen, the African American community would rally behind Danny, make it a close race, and throw in enough Lakefront and other, tacit Dem. Liberals scattered throughout the City and the Congressman could yet MAYYYYYBE, pull it out. Otherwise, and I realize this comment will upset some, but Meeks and Braun will have cost Congressman (and not beyond the realm of reasonably possible) Mayor Davis the election. This is Chicago. Danny’s one of us–he’s labored for our best interest for decades. HE, and he alone, can still win this thing if what I say occurred, because a LOT of folks are not impressed by Hollywood Rahm swooping back-in from the White House like a vulture, ready to spend millions on TV Ads to “take over” Chicago like Rahmbo could. They want someone real, some one understanding and smart, someone down to earth, and a guy named Danny, like a Harold, is their only other best alternative….
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 5:34 pm
keep an eye on Mr. Chicos wife!review her political backround and that will explain for interesting alignments and requests!!!
Comment by railrat Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 5:59 pm
Rahm dodged a bullet in my opinion when Sen. Kwame Raoul decided not to get into this race.
There are some very talented and up-and-coming African American politicians in Chicago (Alderman Anthony Beale would be another nominee, as well as Alderman Sharon Dixon). Unfortunately, the timing isn’t quite right for any of them, and some of them (the aldermen) don’t really have a sufficient platform from which to run.
Meeks is also a talented up and comer, and I were backing a candidate from the current field, in the end I’d go with James Meeks. He probably cannot win but he’s saying a lot of important things. He’s the clear standout amongst the African-American “mentioned” in this race.
Comment by ZC Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 6:07 pm
I fail to see how Rahm is a ‘vulture’ yet Davis is somehow real? If I recall, Davis was briefly interested in being Cook County Board President….now this. Sorry, but a perpetual candidate, always looking for his next gig is not an appealing choice to me.
Comment by StreetervilleSnookie Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 6:29 pm
Meeks won me over with his vote at the impeachment trial…”we’ve got this thing called impeachment….and it’s bleeping golden”. Then again with his program for school vouchers for the poorest of the poor kids. His party couldn’t stomach that, but I liked it a lot. Good luck Rev.
Comment by Park Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 7:02 pm
ZC,
Rahm had nothing to fear from Kwame. Kwame is the anti-Davis. While Davis always wants to run, Kwame never does. Kwame is big on the whole “good thing I don’t have to make a choice” thing. Watch to see if he actually backs anyone in the race. Probably not. Expect to see him on the sidelines. He’s just not a leader.
If there was a bullet dodged, it was when Will Burns decided he wanted to be alderman. Will Burns, if he could raise money (always the golden question) would have made this a real race.
Comment by Jasper Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 8:05 pm
I must be getting old, StreetervilleSnookie, but unlike Rahm, both in this City, as Alderman, County, as Commissioner, and bothe Chicago and D.C. as Congressman, Danny Davis has earned his stripes as a proven, competent, dedicated public servant–he’s EARNED this shot. And although it may sound like ancient history, he’s publicly exhibited his desire to govern the Windy City and even challenged Mayor Daley to stand up for his beliefs and seek THIS Office–way back in 1991. He loves this City and has proven it time and again, so I’m sorry, but the “perennial candidate” attack just doesn’t hold much water in his case….
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 8:32 pm
===Squid, that’s what the mayoral election is.===
Chicago uses runoff elections for mayoral races? Why is there any concern about a “consensus candidate” and “splitting the vote” then?
Comment by Squideshi Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 9:42 pm
Rahm Emanuel, brought to you by the people who tried to sell you Alexi Gianoulias.
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 9:50 pm
–Chicago uses runoff elections for mayoral races? Why is there any concern about a “consensus candidate” and “splitting the vote” then?–
50 Wards, 76 neighborhoods, race, religion, ethnicity — pretty much the whole stew. You have to get the right amount of ingredients.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 10:04 pm
So much of this election baffles me.
First of all, it’s kind of funny that there’s a need for a consensus BLACK candidate when there isn’t a single Irish or Eastern-European Catholic to try to go against in the first place.
Secondly, why do people take Gery Chico so much more seriously than Miguel Del Valle, the Latino candidate in the race who has actually won an election (actually several) before? I mean I know Chico has the better money connections for fundraising and all those Daley appointments on his resume, but what has he accomplished in life that Mayor Daley didn’t give him and how would he govern any differently than Mayor Daley? It seems all his comments in the press are just trashing Rahm.
What legislation has Danny Davis sponsored in Congress, as a county commissioner or as an alderman that recommends him as mayor, Just the Way It Is One? Also, how has Danny Davis “publicly exhibited” his desire to govern the Windy City any more than the other candidates? What has he given up to run? I mean Del Valle gave up the city clerk gig, Rahm gave up white house chief of staff and Meeks has given up his church to some extent. But Davis?
Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Nov 16, 10 @ 11:02 pm