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A look at the tea leaves

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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column takes a look at some legislative tea leaves

What started out as a slow state legislative veto session suddenly accelerated Thursday. Senate President John Cullerton formed two new bipartisan committees and charged them with reforming workers compensation and Medicaid. The catch is that the committees must finish their work by Jan. 3.

That means votes could be taken on workers comp and Medicaid reform before the new General Assembly is sworn in about a week later.

Republicans have been clamoring for those very reforms for years. So that means, if all goes well, the Republicans will have two fewer excuses to refuse to put votes on the big bills the Democrats really want, like borrowing to make the state’s pension payment, gaming expansion or, perhaps, even a tax hike.

Cullerton also introduced major legislation last week that would force the termination of Rod Blagojevich’s appointees whose terms have expired but who have not yet had another Senate confirmation vote.

More than a dozen state agency directors and hundreds of others would be kicked out of government by the legislation, unless Gov. Pat Quinn renominates them. House Speaker Michael Madigan added his name as chief House sponsor of the measure, which is a good indication that this thing is moving fast.

Quinn acted quickly, however, and asked for the resignations of all his cabinet members the following day. Change is in the air.

This new movement wasn’t confined to the Senate or to the governor’s office. Both legislative chambers advanced several state finance and government reform measures Thursday, and more may be on the way. For instance, a reform of the police and firefighters pension system likely will be unveiled in the House after the Thanksgiving break.

Madigan took over sponsorship of a bill Thursday that would create a $300 million short-term, no-interest loan program for the state’s health care and human service providers, most of whom have been waiting months to be paid money the state owes them. A bill requiring 30-day reviews of state leases passed the House unanimously the same day. Legislation forcing the Regional Transportation Authority to submit to the state’s executive inspector general sailed through the Senate a day earlier.

House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie amended a bill to sweep special funds related to the Department of Financial and Professional Regulation. The sweeps will shore up other depleted funds that pay for oversight or regulatory activities. Currie passed a bill unanimously Thursday to allow the state’s ethics commissions to close some gift ban loopholes.

A Senate bill that has been stalled in the House Rules Committee since March suddenly was given new life and assigned to the House Executive Committee, the usual destination of high-priority bills. The legislation would require the state to make monthly payments to the state’s pension systems when revenue growth reaches a certain point. There’s no real growth now, but there will be some day.

Numerous other bills also were advanced last week, giving the impression of a whole lot of movement designed to placate various groups of legislators. The legislative leaders will need to make as many legislators as happy as possible if they want to do anything really major.

A long-stalled microloan program for small business, backed by several House liberals, suddenly was revived and sent to the Senate Executive Committee. Legislation favored by south suburban legislators creating the Southeast Commuter Rail Transit District passed the House. Casino owners are pushing hard for an exemption to the state’s smoking ban, and a bill to do that was moved through the House Executive Committee and teed up for a vote.

Some potentially interesting revenue bills moved as well. A bill making what is known in the lingo as a “technical change” to the Income Tax Act, which once was sponsored by Speaker Madigan and is co-sponsored by Majority Leader Currie, was moved to the House floor. Keep an eye on that one. It could be amended with a tax hike. A former Madigan bill was amended to decouple the state’s estate tax from federal levels. That very well could be advanced.

This burst of activity has the feel to some observers of things being put into place so that the really big stuff can be moved later on. Whether the trigger ever will be pulled on that big stuff is yet to be seen. Stay tuned.

* Meanwhile, Dave McKinney has an excellent piece about lame ducks and what they want

SPRINGFIELD — Rep. Michael Boland (D-East Moline) said he has never voted for a tax increase in 16 years and would “feel bad spiritually” doing so now.

Rep. Suzie Bassi (R-Palatine) wants to see 401(k)-style retirement accounts established for new state workers, Medicaid reforms and an end to free transit rides for all senior citizens before she’d consider a tax hike.

And Rep. Paul Froehlich (D-Schaumburg), a Republican-turned-Democrat who voted against hiking the income tax as recently as last year, now seems to be warming up to it.

Meet three of the 18 departing Illinois state representatives — who along with a group of returning House members — figure to play a key role in determining whether Gov. Quinn gets a 33-percent increase in the state income tax in January, when his proposal is most likely to surface. […]

But if it was tricky for Quinn to cobble together a miniscule, 19,000-vote win in the governor’s race, getting to 60 votes in the Illinois House — the threshold he needs to pass a tax increase after the start of the year — could be every bit as vexing, if not more so.

Make sure to read the whole thing.

* Related…

* Is workers’ comp change on way in Springfield?

* State lawmakers expect busy spring

* Political writer: Troubles ahead in Washington, Springfield

* Erickson: Election is over; wait for solution isn’t

* Veto session: Second week could be frenzy or fizzle

* Statehouse Insider: About Quinn’s ‘mandate‘ …

* How to sell a tax increase

* Legislature must take next vital step in reforming public employee pensions

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 22, 10 @ 4:56 am

Comments

  1. –Rep. Michael Boland (D-East Moline) said he has never voted for a tax increase in 16 years and would “feel bad spiritually” doing so now.–

    Oh, ye of little faith. With just a mustard seed’s worth, he could move mountains.

    How does he “feel spiritually” about being a chronic, world-class deadbeat? Maybe he should consult his Ouja board about what to do. Since his spirit is not strong enough to deal with Earthly matters, his exorcism from the GA can’t come soon enough.

    Was there an end-of-year award for Most Ludicrous, Navel-Gazing Quote?

    Comment by wordslinger Monday, Nov 22, 10 @ 6:48 am

  2. This comment from Pearson during his romp in Cdale was a real side splitter…..

    “Pearson believed lawmakers needed to work to convince the public a tax increase would be wise.

    “Before any tax increase, there has to be a demonstration of real cuts for people,” Pearson said. “I don’t know where those will come from.”

    ….. Huh? Keep in mind this is from the newspaper that battered any candidate who whisphered the words tax hike.

    Now they want a sales job?

    Apparently the writer of this story was dozing during the campaign, missed the assaults and “forgot” to ask Pearson about the apparent Trib flip flop.
    Too bad
    Maybe someone else can

    Comment by CircularFiringSquad Monday, Nov 22, 10 @ 8:53 am

  3. Rich - any idea when Cook County will have the candidate filings online? Today is the last day to file petitions, but they have yet to post any candidates.

    Comment by Jeff Monday, Nov 22, 10 @ 10:56 am

  4. Does Medicaid reform make sense in light of the impending national changes which will go into effect in 2014. Do we know enough about these local changes to be certain that any changes we make in Illinois will fit well with the new system–or will they be trivial or unnecessary or even prohibited when 2014 arrives. Has anybody looked at California’s plan to upgrade its Medicaid system to conform with 2014 ahead of time in exchange for a multibillion dollar federal grant. California is in bad financial shape too.There must be a reason they are accelerating, and it may have something to do with more federal $$$$ sooner.

    I hope the Republicans aren’t going to push through some extremely trivial Medicaid reforms which will disappear in 2014, kind of similar to the Democrats’ fumigation bill strategy. The folks to be potentially let go from their lucrative state jobs are mostly Democrats, after all, and the Dems take care of their own, even if they were appointed by our Blago. I wouldn’t expect many actual departures–a couple of early retirees, maybe, they can say they fired. And a lot of Republicans live off the public purse too. Medicaid “reforms” could allow them to pretend they’ve done something about the budget in exchange for an income tax increase. I suspect many are as anxious as the Democrats to increase the cash flow from taxpayers into the state piggy bank, notwithstanding the current economic malaise.

    Comment by cassandra Monday, Nov 22, 10 @ 11:04 am

  5. Jeff - if you’re interested in the Chicago candidate filings, they are at the Chgo Brd of Elections site here - http://www.chicagoelections.com/page.php?id=95

    Comment by Monstrum Monday, Nov 22, 10 @ 12:02 pm

  6. During his 26-year political career “Rep. Michael Boland (D-East Moline) said he has never voted for a tax increase…”, nor did he accomplish anything worth noting! Fact is, Boland is a self-serving politician more interested in cashing his pension check than fixing problems he manufactured.

    Comment by RadnalL Monday, Nov 22, 10 @ 12:20 pm

  7. One of the biggest financial impediments to the Republicans’ push for global Medicaid managed care is that the state is currently deferring payments to providers and thus avoiding costs. A managed care plan would expect 30 or perhaps 60 day cycles, which means the state would have to pay a lot faster than it does now. You’re looking at a one-time catch-up of maybe $500 million or more. Last I heard, we don’t have half of a billion lying around.

    Plus, the savings for managed care are nominal, if any. The first thing HMOs would want are higher rates for doctors and hospitals, which would seriously erode any managed utilization savings. The Medicaid reform stuff has long been used by Republicans for political cover for saying no to revenue options.

    Comment by Budget Watcher Monday, Nov 22, 10 @ 12:50 pm

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