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*** UPDATE *** From the Tribune…
Mayoral candidate Rahm Emanuel’s wife will not have to appear to testify at tomorrow’s election board hearing challenging Emanuel’s Chicago residency, a hearing officer said today.
Burt Odelson, the lead attorney in the challenge, has dropped his bid to bring Amy Rule to Chicago, and hearing officer Joseph A. Morris said he had he heard nothing from other objectors that showed Rule had to be called.
* Rahm Emanuel’s campaign just released its own poll, which shows that Emanuel may be within sight of avoiding a runoff…
43 percent Emanuel
11 percent Carol Moseley Braun
10 percent Danny Davis
9 percent Gery Chico
8 percent Miguel Del Valle
7 percent James Meeks
1 percent Roland Burris
2 percent Other
7 percent Undecided
The poll was conducted December 1-8 of 1,020 likely voters and the MoE is 3.07 percent.
More…
Among blacks polled, Emanuel was at 39 percent to 21 percent for Davis, to 14 percent for Meeks, to 13 percent for Moseley Braun, to 3 percent for Chico, 2 percent for Burris and 7 percent at undecided.
Chicago City Clerk Miguel Del Valle is the top candidate of Hispanics surveyed, getting 37 percent of the Hispanic vote to 32 percent for Emanuel, 9 percent for Chico, 5 percent for Moseley Braun and everyone else under 4 percent. […]
From the Greenberg Quinlan memo: Emanuel’s “lead is built upon a very positive profile, with Emanuel by 91 percent of the voters, 54 percent offering warm or positive ratings and just 22 percent cool or negative ratings. Voters are much more mixed in their views of the other well known candidates including Moseley Braun, who garners net negative ratings (34 percent, 39 percent cool, 90 percent name identification), and Chico (25 percent warm, 22 percent cool, 65 percent name identification).”
* Meanwhile, Gery Chico claims his campaign raised $100,000 a day for three days straight…
“He’s about as good as anyone I’ve worked with, fund-raising,” said Ken Snyder, senior strategist for the campaign, who has helped with campaigns across the country and locally for Toni Preckwinkle and John Stroger. “He just works his heart out. There’s no easy way to do it. It’s just elbow grease. It can be a humble and humiliating experience even, but candidates have to do it. He works hard at it. He’s on the phone hours and hours and hours every day.”
Chico didn’t do a bad fundraising job when he ran for Senate, but he finished way out of the money when it came to actual votes. However, he’s definitely running the scrappiest campaign of all the others so far.
* Related…
* Q&A with the Rev. James Meeks: I’m going to give the Chicago Teachers Union one year to create a policy of establishing what is an effective teacher, what is an ineffective teacher, and how do we dismiss an ineffective teacher. If they don’t come up with a policy in a year, then I would ask the General Assembly for that policy. I think all teachers get a bum rap because of bad teachers. Teachers don’t want bad teachers either.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 3:40 pm
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How on earth can CMB be in 3rd place?
Comment by Cheryl44 Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 3:43 pm
Second place, I mean.
Comment by Cheryl44 Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 3:43 pm
Aren’t polls done by a candidate that show himself or herself in the lead just for their own propaganda purposes? why publish them? to the chicago press- you are being used. why cover Emanuel if he won’t answer your questions?? I wouldn’t show up to anything he does.
Comment by bdogg Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 3:48 pm
Rich, do you mean “Chico” instead of Chicago? Probably your auto-correct.
Comment by What's in a name? Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 3:49 pm
===why cover Emanuel if he won’t answer your questions?? I wouldn’t show up to anything he does. ===
Do you actually read what you post?
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 3:49 pm
===Probably your auto-correct. ===
Rented thumbs.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 3:51 pm
Rich, that’s Chico, aka Gery Chicago, and he ran for US Senate not Governor.
Comment by Disgusted Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 3:54 pm
Again, rented thumbs.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 3:54 pm
===why cover Emanuel if he won’t answer your questions??===
I’ve been saying the same thing about Sarah Palin.
Comment by Deep South Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 4:05 pm
bdogg, I seriously doubt that Rahm’s team is paying GQR tens of thousands of dollars to do a poll just for the benefit of a “propaganda” memo. If the data from the poll is faulty then the real victim is the campaign, not the Chicago press.
Comment by Scooby Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 4:08 pm
You can’t not cover a major candidate for mayor. That’s probably the dumbest idea ever. If he won’t answer questions, then get more forceful. Too often, the questions asked leave huge room for evasion. Follow-up and precision are important. Not always easy to do, but necessary.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 4:11 pm
The poll is to stop that money flowing to Chico and to a lesser degree Braun, Meeks and whoever else.
Comment by Spliff Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 4:15 pm
==Do you actually read what you post?==
Rich, I second that. bdogg, how would you even know whether your questions would be answered if you don’t bother to show up.
Comment by Lee Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 4:16 pm
If Rev. Meeks believes the General Assembly should tackle teacher evaluations, then he should stay there and work on it, rather than running for mayor.
Comment by Wensicia Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 4:19 pm
What do you suppose are Rahm’s chances if he gets in a runoff? I’m curious to see how this system will work in a competitive election, although the results probably won’t be as exciting as what happened in the Oakland mayoral race last month.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 6:26 pm
As of today, I doubt Emanuel can get the 50% plus 1 to avoid a runoff. Name recognition won’t be enough; odds are there will be a Rahm and an anti-Rahm.
I wouldn’t count out an anti-Rahm at all in a run-off. Money and support will be focused. Is Rahm a heavyweight in a one-on-one citywide election? I don’t see why. What’s his base and where’s the enthusiasm?
One-on-one softball interviews with swooning columnists and TV personalities still angling for White House holiday party invites will only go so far. At some point, he’ll have to venture into the muck.
If I were the anti-Rahm, I’d focus on how he sold out Obama. At the beginning of the year, there was a spate of stories in the national press about “If only Obama would listen to that genius Rahm.” Gee, where did those come from?
Then, of course, he bailed before the election wipeout, even after Obama was quoted as expecting him to stay through the balloting.
The dude’s a mile wide and an inch deep. Who’s got his back?
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 6:33 pm
If I were Chico and others, I wouldn’t get discouraged by these polls. I’m guessing that people w/cell phones are NOT being polled, as is usually the case. It would seem that Chicago, like most big cities, has a fair percentage of the voting age population that rely on cell phones rather than land lines.
Chico etc., remember Bill Brady! Polls can be very wrong. The goal here is to make it to a run off, and prevent the Rahmster from getting more than 50 percent. It would be impossible for him to pull that off. He’s not Mayor Daley, yet.
Comment by BF Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 6:58 pm
this might be a silly question and not sure if this is the correct place to ask it … but if Rahm is ineligible for the election because he was in DC, even though his permanent residence was in Chicago (albeit rented to someone else), wouldn’t Davis also be ineligible?
Comment by crg Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 7:24 pm
It’s not just TV. Rahm is running advertisements on Youtube. I came across one when looking up Janelle Monae.
Guy has an organized media outreach.
Comment by ZC Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 7:49 pm
As a Congressman, Davis has to be a resident (of the State, if not the district). So, he’s fine.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 8:04 pm
Here’s something to consider:
The city is basically 1/3rd hispanic, black, and white. I know it’s not equal and the percentages are off a bit. If you look at the data, Rahm’s percentage is close to that of the white vote in Chicago. If you add up the black candidates, it’s almost equal to the black vote as well. The interesting thing is Del Valle and Chico only account for 17% of the vote which is about 10% less than the total hispanic vote in the city. If a run-off becomes a reality, it will be interesting to see where the black/hispanic vote goes. I think I’d buy the ability of a hispanic candidate to win vs. that of a black candidate versus Rahm.
Comment by Logical Thinker Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 9:03 pm
How the heck is Joe Morris moderating the hearing? I am sure he is the smartest guy in the room, he will let you know. I am just curious.
Comment by Wumpus Monday, Dec 13, 10 @ 11:03 pm
LT - As the crosstabs above indicate, there is currently not much racial block voting. Rahm is pulling 39% of the black vote and 32% of the Hispanic vote
Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Dec 14, 10 @ 12:07 am
LT,
While I know part of the reason for your post is to reply to someone who seemed not even to recognize that the poll had crosstabs and that Rich had posted them, it’s still worth noting that we’ve seen other high-profile races in which the black vote gravitated to the black candidate relatively late. Rahm might end up with 39% of the black vote in the first round … but I wouldn’t put money on it.
Comment by irv & ashland Tuesday, Dec 14, 10 @ 1:00 am
NBC5 Chicago has the hearings live on their cable channel and there are updates going live on MSNBC.
Comment by amalia Tuesday, Dec 14, 10 @ 9:22 am