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(Important update below. Until I hear back from the pollster, I have almost zero confidence in these poll results.)
(Second important update below. The pollster has now explained this and I now believe the numbers.)
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll is out. See all results here.
REPUBLICAN SECTION (500 PRIMARY VOTERS)
MARGIN FOR ERROR IS 4.5%QUESTION: If the primary election for Governor were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?
ALL MEN WOMEN 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
Judy Baar Topinka 36% 32% 40% 38% 34% 36% 35%
Jim Oberweis 25% 28% 22% 23% 27% 26% 27%
Ron Gidwitz 19% 20% 18% 22% 17% 20% 18%
Bill Brady 11% 13% 9% 8% 14% 11% 13%
Andy Martin 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 2%
Undecided 8% 6% 10% 8% 8% 6% 5%
And here are the Dem results.
DEMOCRATIC SECTION (323 DEMOCRATS IN OVERALL SAMPLE) MARGIN FOR ERROR IS 5.8%
QUESTION: If the primary election for Governor were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?
Rod Blagojevich 61%
Edwin Eisendrath 26%
Undecided 13%
They asked a million questions, but apparently didn’t do the state treasurer’s race.
IMPORTANT UPDATE: (Deleted because the pollster explained his numbers.)
IMPORTANT UPDATE 2: I just got off the phone with the pollster. He explained that he went back and did an oversample of likely Republican primary voters, which, for whatever reason, the Post-Dispatch never explained.
Some of those in the original sample of 247 Republicans were used (those who said they were voting in the primary) along with those in the follow-up oversample who said they were likely GOP primary voters. So, the numbers do add up to 500 Republicans and, more importantly, they are Republican primary voters.
Sorry for the momentary confusion (caused by faulty Post-Dispatch reporting). But these numbers do appear to be correct.
UPDATE: For a little context, here is the last Tribune poll from early February (I hear the Trib is in the field now and will have results maybe by Tuesday). The new Post-Dispatch numbers are bracketed.
Topinka 38 [36]
Oberweis 17 [25]
Gidwitz 11 [19]
Brady 8 [11]
Martin <1 [1]
Undecided 25 [8]Blagojevich 62 [61]
Eisendrath 18 [26]
Other 2
Undecided 18 [13]
Topinka has mostly held, while everyone else is moving up. That’s to be expected. She is essentially an incumbent type of candidate, so it wasn’t too hard to figure that undecideds would mostly break away from her. As long as her opponents are splitting the vote as undecideds begin to make up their minds, Topinka stays on top. If someone can consolidate that group, she’s in trouble.
Gidwitz is running a new TV ad (no link yet) that attacks both Topinka and Oberweis. He and his family have dropped more than $1.3 million into the campaign this week alone. He’s reportedly running 50/50 positives and negatives in his latest ad buy.
UPDATE: Sunday’s Tribune “almost” endorses Eisendrath, but not quite. Neither candidate gets the nod, but the Tribune does close with this: “Democrats who want to send a message to the governor have a way to convey it: Vote for Edwin Eisendrath.”
posted by Rich Miller
Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 10:36 am
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Looks like Judy’s still on top, and Gidwitz has come up the most, Oberweis just a it.
Udecideds down to 8%? Not much to win over- gains will have to come from an opponent.
Do I see a gender gap between Judy’s & Oberseis’ numbers?
Comment by Rick Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 10:43 am
Also, note that Oberweis + Brady + Topinka, while Topinka + Gidwitz dwarfs the conservatives.
Comment by Rick Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 10:59 am
Does this poll consider the republicans who will crossover in the primary to vote for EE? There are a lot of folks who would rather vote against Blago and accept whoever Republican wins. Then in Nov., you can vote against Blago again.
Comment by Mr. Ethics Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 11:22 am
How ’bout the numbers on the smoking ban? 68 percent in favor? I thought it’d be a majority, but wasn’t expecting more than two-thirds support. That’s awesome!
Comment by Webguy Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 11:23 am
The numbers are not surprising at least on the Democratic side, as Eisendraft is essentially running in Cook County to send a message to Blago.
On the Repub side I think you will see Gidwitz take off and leave Brady and Overweiss in the dust, leaving a shootout w/Judy.
The race has not reached a climax, although w/the issues that may not happen until the November election.
Comment by Doug Dobmeyer Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 11:25 am
Oberweis still has a chance, but he’s running out of time. I think Topinka will win comfortably, especially since the Democrats don’t have a horse race. Most independents and maybe even a few Democrats will choose Republican ballots and they will vote disproportionately for Topinka.
Comment by Anon Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 11:37 am
I have to echo the comments of Mr. Ethics. I wonder how many repubs will pull a dem ballot in the primary to vote against Puffery. I know that is what I am going to do. I urge everyone who is fed up with the stunts of the current administration to pull a dem ballot and vote for EE. Blogo has to go. To quote a bumper sticker that I saw yesterday - Buck Flagojevich! If you haven’t seen it, check out Illinoize.
Comment by "B Team" Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 11:38 am
And once again polling in the southern part of the state was almost nill.I guess they haven’t figured out that we have almost caught up with the rest of the world.You know phones,computers,in-door plumbing.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 11:41 am
Brady can’t win but he is doing a great job of helping Judy. He is keeping Diary boy in a position which will not allow him to win. My prediciton is Brady does better than you think. Probably second to Judy. If he had more money, and a go mainstream TV ad, he could win.
Comment by Poltical Hack Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 11:41 am
Repubs are not going to pull a Dem ballot. However, I think EE is going to pull at least 35 percent — if he goes higher than 40 percent it is going to be downright embarassing for G-Rod.
Comment by Just Observing Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 11:42 am
And remember, middle-of-the-road voters in Hyde’s district will have to choose between casting a vote in the Dem primary for that seat or choosing a moderate in the GOP primary for governor. It’d be a tough choice, but it doesn’t help that neither one looks like it will have a huge impact in November — so far anyway.
Comment by Webguy Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 11:43 am
In the Democratic contest they counted 323 democrats.
In the Republican contest they counted 500.
There were only 247 Republicans in the sample.
What’s the explanation? Did they include independents?
Comment by Curious George Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 12:04 pm
Curious George, you’re right. This appears hinky. See the update.
Comment by Rich Miller Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 12:34 pm
Yeah, it looks like the pollster didn’t know what he was doing. Including all independents in the Republican sample would bias things for Topinka and Gidwitz against Oberweis and Brady. Just how much is hard to say. I think most independents will take a Republican ballot (because it’s close and the Democratic race isn’t)– but certainly not all of them
Comment by Realist Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 12:37 pm
Sorry for the confusion (caused by faulty Post-Dispatch reporting), but these numbers do appear to be correct.
Comment by Rich Miller Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 12:50 pm
I sincerely doubt many strategically thinking Repubs are going to pull a D ballot to “send a message” to Blago. With a potentially close race for the Repub govs, the best bet to dump Blago is to vote for Topinka. If Oberweiss wins, Blago wins. It could be as bad as Keyes (well, maybe not that bad). (Unless Meeks runs- then Oberweis might actually have a shot- but that would be a wild and wacky set of circumstances.) So if there is any strategic cross-party ballot pulling, I suspect it would be from moderate Dems who have an interest in pulling IL state gov operations back from the abyss– they would be pulling the R ballot to vote for Judy. But of course there is little more than anecdotal evidence for this sort of strategic voting in open primaries ever occuring. It is mainly a bugaboo concern of party organization types.
Comment by anon Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 1:01 pm
You guys talking about the crossover votes…you’re living in fantasyland. It just doesn’t happen.
As far as voters in the 6th wondering which ballot to pull - you’re missing the point. Folks who vote in primaries don’t typically walk in wondering, “hmm…do I vote Democratic or Republican today?” If they voted in past Dem or GOP primaries, most likely they’ll be doing the same this year.
Comment by SenorAnon Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 1:03 pm
Rich still does not explain the fact that there were only 87 interviews in the south. Blago was put over the top with the southern vote which this time everyone has jumped ship including a lot of Democrats.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 1:04 pm
I still think EE will pull at least 40% in the Democrat primary from Vandalia on south. Blago is not liked in this part of the state, no matter what the poll says.
Comment by Southern Illinois Democrat Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 1:10 pm
“Downstate,” southern Illinois is a large area with a lot of counties, but it doesn’t have a huge amount of people.
Comment by Rich Miller Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 1:11 pm
Hey, Miller, did you see that your paper ripped you off today? Why didn’t the Sun-Times report that you had the scoop on the governor’s proclamations? They stole it all for themselves.
Time for a blogger ethics panel.
Comment by Robbed! Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 1:33 pm
Southern Illinois Democrat,
I’m not sure that you’re right about the Dem primary. Doesn’t a good part of the Democratic vote in Southern Illinois comes from metro East which is heavily black and thus good territory for Blago? Also isn’t it true that EE has done very little (if any) TV down there? Do people really know who he is down there? But maybe I’m missing something. I’m sure you know your part of the state better than I do.
Comment by Realist Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 1:38 pm
To SenorAnon,
I had to laugh at your crossover comment, because this morning I voted early and cast a crossover vote for EE. I would guess that my wife will do the same. Certainly not a trend, but not fantasyland either. In the last 24 years I’ve asked for D ballots and R ballots depending upon the candidate pool.
My vote this year was a vote to say that I’m very disapointed in the leadership of the state. I’m a middle class, white, heterosexual, who lives downstate and isn’t represented by a union. That’s five strikes against me in this administration. I couldn’t think of one thing that the current Governor did that benefitted me.
I did, however, witness gross incompetence at high levels in government, blatent misrepresentation of fiscal data, and an alarming degradation of state services. I left because I couldn’t remain and play a part in an administration that was in way over their heads and, frankly, played loose and fast with ethical and legal rules.
I didn’t want to vote R this time because there’s no one on that ballot that I connect with. So, I voted D and cast a protest vote. That’s not a fantasy.
Comment by Former MC Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 3:20 pm
Realist You are probably right about the metro east area. But, the rural part of southern Illinois does not see Rod as a friend. There are alot of good Dems in this part of Illinois who feel that they delivered the election to Rod 4 years ago and have not been repaid for that effort. Thats why you will hear Angry Frank Watson and other Republicans in this part of the state talk about Rod not living in Springfield and sending so much to Chicago. They want to send the message that we were used 4 years ago and we should not be used again. I’ll still be surprised if EE does not get 40% down here but that may be without totals from the metro area.
Comment by Southern Illinois Democrat Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 3:33 pm
Southern Illinoisans need to remember that out of 59 state Senators, just 8 are from south of Springfield - Demuzio, Watson, Jones, Righter, Haine, Clayborne, Luechtefeld and Forby. It’s a big area, but, as I’ve pointed out above, there just aren’t many voters down there. They can be pivotal, but only if they are united and usually only if it’s a relatively close statewide race.
Comment by Rich Miller Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 4:27 pm
The Trib is coming out with a non-endorsement of EE tomorrow. The Sun-Times and Post-Dispatch endorse Blago. The Trib’s piece is kind of funny. It basically says that EE is too pathetic to endorse, but we hate Blago, so maybe you want to do a protest vote for EE. Unlikely to mattter much, not just because it’s so tepid, but also because Dems. tend to view the Trib as a Republican newpaper and are less influenced by it.
Comment by Realist Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 4:40 pm
Maybe Oberweis should guarantee Billy Boy a 1.5 million dollar contribution to his next political endeavor, if he drops from this race.
Now that would be something to watch.
Comment by B Hicks Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 4:55 pm
there will NOT be any measurable cross over vote. You can go to the bank on that. Any professional in this business knows it doesn’t happen but once in a blue moon. We’ve polled it, we checked it and it ain’t happening this cycle. Next hacking theory??
Comment by Political Hack Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 5:21 pm
For months we’ve been hearing about how obie is going to pound judy and yadda, yadda, yadda. so obie’s first hit he has to bactrack from and he’s never recovered. and now he’s exactly in the same spot he was two years ago.
Two words: Groundhog Day
Comment by A.J. Pierzynski Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 5:22 pm
Since this poll looks nothing like what I have seen or heard about, I question the validity. Although the pollster shows the breakdown of the overall poll they do not do the same for the Republican primary questions.
Rich, could you get the pollster to give you the breakdown of the Republican voters?
Comment by Anonymous Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 7:00 pm
For those who are commenting on the Metro East. I want to speak from a position of authority. Mayor Carl Officer of East St. Louis, and I are working to build a coalition that is definitely going to benefit Eisendrath. I have met his Campaign Manager Felicia Davis. She is very intelligent. She definitely was a key volunteer for Senator Obama in his campaign. Eisendrath’s Communications Director, Monica is a very sharp young lady as well. To top it off, Edwin Eisendrath is going to run a competitive campaign in the Metro East. He has the right message. The St. Clair County Democratic machine is in disarray. With the voter fraud and vote buying convictions fresh on the minds of the St. Clair County bosses, the vote buying should be supressed. Expect a lighter turn out in the African-American communities. Edwin’s campaign team is organized, up and running in the Metro East. This election is about trust, and qualification. Blagojevich is in for a shocker. Alexi is going to take care of business in the Treasurer’s race, Bill Berry will run well for Apellate judge in the Metro East and I will do well against Jerry Costello in the State Central Committeeman race in the 12th Congressional District. There are many people like Felicia Davis who are very bright and work behind the scenes for qualified candidates with integrity. That is what is going to make our Democratic party stay strong. We are witnessing the changing of the guard. Our state deserves better than what we have gotten over these last few years. A lot will happen in the next couple weeks. The last thing I want to say is I thank God for Edwin Eisendrath, Judy Baar Topinka, Alexander Giannoulias, Bill Berry, and others who give the voters some candidates who believe that integrity and honest government is the wave of the future in this great state of Illinois. And without a doubt, Mr. Obama has set the standard for our future. He has set the bar real high. We must take advantage of a new wision. YES WE CAN!!!!!
And WE WILL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Government is run by those who show up. Let’s all get out here and work for the candidate of your choice. On March 21, 2006, let’s get out and vote.
Comment by Ray Coleman Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 7:25 pm
I think the sample size is a little iffy at best. 243 is pretty shotty survey research. They should have had similar sample sizes. If I tried to show that survey size for a research paper I would be laughed at!
Comment by southernilrepub Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 9:07 pm
I believe the pollster has overestimated those “likely” to vote. I’ve been working in politics for 30 years, and I have never seen such disinterest in an election in my life. I’m in a collar county, and I’m beginning to believe that everyone who wants to vote already has voted.
There will be no crossover votes (except for that one guy above), and the double RRs (those that have voted in the last two Republican Primaries) will be the only ones voting come 3/21. Where the double RRs come from may determine who will win the Republican primary.
Remember - no one really cares about politics. Not real people anyway. They have lives to lead, and unless there is some crisis, a major scandal, or some important local issue (like a garbage dump), the “nominal” voter will stay home. This March it seems like everyone is going to stay home except the double RRs.
The poll that asks those “MOST likely to vote” will be the most accurate.
Comment by Right Wing Republican Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 11:04 pm
====For those who are commenting on the Metro East. I want to speak from a position of authority. Mayor Carl Officer of East St. Louis, and I are working to build a coalition that is definitely going to benefit Eisendrath.
I hear Carl has told the Governor he won’t allow the National Guard in again. How’s the maternity ward doing?
Comment by ArchPundit Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 11:26 pm
Lo and behold. Just finished talking about polls, when I come across the latest poll released by the Brady camp. It was done on March 7th. The following is an excerpt:
“The Brady campaign’s latest poll, taken March 7 with 800 likely Republican primary voters, shows support for challengers Judy Baar Topinka and Jim Oberweis sinking. Both Brady and Ron Gidwitz stood at 15 percent. Oberweis received the support of only 11 percent of those polled, while Topinka had fallen to 28 percent. The margin of error is 4.1 percent.
In the St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Southern Illinoisan poll, 44 percent of those interviewed were from Chicago and suburban Cook County, when traditionally Republican voters account for closer to 20 percent in that area.
Only 19 percent of those interviewed lived in the collar counties, about half of the actual number of Republican primary voters there.
For the rest of the state, they interviewed only 299 voters, just 37 percent when Downstate traditionally accounts for about 45 percent of the Republican primary vote total.
In addition, the poll did not use lists to identify Republican voters lists but used random-digit dialing and merely asked whether the person who answered the phone was a registered voter and if they intended to vote Republican or Democrat.”
Huge difference in Obiewon’s numbers. From 25% by the Post, to 11% for Brady’s pollster. Somebody is counting wrong.
Comment by Right Wing Republican Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 11:28 pm
Ray Coleman,
I applaud your idealism. I wish you a long and successful political career. You sound like a great guy who is truly motivated to help people. I hope many of the things you predict will come to pass–I really do. Unfortunately, I think most of them will not. (After all-I am a Realist). Nevertheless, I encourage you to keep fighting the good fight. Perhaps you will be right and I will be wrong. (I really hope so.) And if not, then I hope that,in time, your idealism will ultimately be successful in shaping a new reality.
Comment by Realist Saturday, Mar 11, 06 @ 11:31 pm
Margin of error is 4.5% the poll is a joke. It’s designed to deceive people and will.
Comment by Anon Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 1:55 am
Something that a lot of people have not taken into consideration is the total dislike people have for this governor.Ray good luck on your run and I wish I was in your area to vote for you.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 6:43 am
I wonder if the poll takes into consideration people crossing party lines. I am one of those switching party lines to vote for Bill Brady this primary. However, if it comes down to Judy and Rob in the general election - I might seriously need to consider an independent/third party candidate.
Comment by Marta Elena Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 7:03 am
Marla Elena,
That is not considered crossing over. It is a throw away vote. Does absolutly NOTHING.
Comment by TINMAN Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 7:38 am
Totally unrelated, but is anyone else as annoyed as I am with those stupid McSweeney commercials? Gawd.
His ditzy wife: “He’s such a family man.” (make me puke)
Comment by Anon Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 7:46 am
It looks like all that money(at least a couple of million statewide) spent on all those ads have done nothing to move Blago’s numbers. He is right where he was in the last poll.
Comment by INADAZE Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 8:46 am
Tribune must think Dem voters are as dumb as GOPs (as in MOPEs). The Tribune is probably already written the election nite story that X% Esquared gets in the primary represents GRODs weakness. The bigger the number the more clucking.
Bottom line GRod better than any of the GOPs
Comment by Reddbyrd Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 8:54 am
Ray Coleman I want to say something that has been on my mind for a couple of elections.Why does the Democrats think that they own the Black vote or that the African-American community owes there something?This state seems to be the worst in the nation for that chain of thought.I see other states breaking that mold.You have some fine African-Americans leading their race in a different direction and it seems to be pushing their causes ahead.I thought Meeks was going to do that but it looks like he has got back in line.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 9:52 am
To Anon at 7:46 AM, actually I and my wife really liked those McSweeney commercials. Your comment that you think they were bad is pretty ironic. I don’t even know who McSweeney is but my wife and I both commented to each other last night after seeing a McSweeney political ad that finally, here is a great professionally done political ad. I guess that this just shows that we don’t all think alike. We thought his wife was excellent in it. We could finally identify with a candidate who had values similar to our own.
Comment by Beowulf Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 10:23 am
Poll Analysis:
Topinka has a solid 35-40% of the Republican base. That’s not going to move.
There’s been some conservative hand-wringing over having two conservative candidates in the race, but the numbers show that even in a two-way race, Topinka would still win. (Lots of different ways to slice it up, but any reasonable allocation of the Gidwitz, Brady and Undecided numbers still puts Topinka over 50%)
Gidwitz and Brady are no longer in a race against Topinka. Since both would like future political careers they must change strategies and run for second place (beat expectations and lay claim to being the frontrunner in a future campaign.)
That’s a much easier task. With Oberweiss’ high negatives and the desire of most mainstream Republicans not to be saddled with another Keyes, people who just can’t bring themselves to vote for Topinka might be persuaded to switch to one of them as Oberweiss continues to self-destruct.
The poll proves something that most politicians hate to admit — contested primaries are good. They bring out the charges early and give the winning candidate a preview of the general and an opportunity to bat down the charges. Absent any new evidence,Blagojevich will be reduced to repeating the same discredited accusations against Topinka that Oberweiss has used. In the meantime, the neverending string of scandals coming from his administration will provide new fodder almost daily for the Topinka campaign.
One final note to the Blagojevich campaign: your posts encouraging Republicans to take a Democrat ballot to cast a “protest” vote are laughable and transparent. I’m hope you’re at least smart enough to not be using campaign computers this time around. It’s your fascination with these kinds of silly games that gives us Republicans hope that your own stupidity and arrogance will do you in.
Comment by Old Elephant Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 10:23 am
Regarding the polling numbers, Gidwitz finally seems to be beginning to reap the rewards of spending a lot of money to achieve some needed name recognition. I wonder if he has enough time left to make a difference though?
In Sunday’s (March 12th) Joliet Herald News, Ron Gidwitz was interviewed by a reporter named Chuck Pelkie. The interview dealt with the controversial Will County issue of a federally subsidized HUD project called Evergreen Terrace Apartments. Gidwitz presented “his side of the story” regarding his less than 1% investment interest in these apartments. It was very enlightening and portrayed Gidwitz in a much softer light than the Joliet city officials had been trying to portray him in for the past 2 years.
Gidwitz should have come forth much earlier to defend himself against these accusations. He would have certainly helped himself on March 21st, if he had. It is hard to get your message or “your side of the story” out with only 9 days left before an election. Not everybody reads the newspapers each day.
Comment by Beowulf Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 10:43 am
I always thought the Chicago Suntimes was a 2nd class newspaper. Excuse me, but they don’t even rate that high. Their endorsement of Bubba Blago is so far off the radar. He certainty does deserve at least 4 years, but in the slammer. To take all those negatives and try and spin them into something positive is absolutely absurd!!!
Comment by Anon Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 10:58 am
The Tribune damned blogo with faint praise. Even a lukewarm endorsement is better than nothing. The Trib had it right. People are fed up with the childish antics of a man who claimed he had the “vesicular virility to stand up to his father in law”. All of the programs that have been crammed thorough legislature have been to blogo’s political benefit as he attempts to run for re-election. He has not cleaned up government as he claimed. He has saddled the state with more debt than ever. He has hired incompetent people to fill positions that require knowledge and experience. He has played fast and loose with facts and figures.
I for one will pull a dem ballot and vote for EE.
Mine will be a vote against a man who was elected on promises to “Not do business as usual.”
Comment by " B Team" Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 11:10 am
“Rod Blagojevich is a charmer, a born salesman,likeable enough you want to TRUST that what he’s saying is true.”
“EDWIN EISENDRATH is a bright, independent, solid cadidate with a record of fixing what’s broken”
“HE IS ENDORSED”
Quoted from Peoria Journal Star Endorsement of EE in todays newspaper.
Comment by Anon Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 12:15 pm
Apparently the CaptFax is dozing and missed the litty le ditty that appears in Crains’ on Alexander Giannoulias. Here are a few highlights
Gun shop, convicted felon got loans from state treasurer candidate’s bank
On his campaign Web site, Illinois treasurer hopeful Alexi Giannoulias describes himself as “a banker — a community banker, to be more precise.” It’s an indication that Mr. Giannoulias’ job as vice-president and chief loan officer at Chicago’s Broadway Bank is his main credential in running to become one of the state’s two elected fiscal officers.
I understand why Mr. Giannoulias plays up the credential. “Community” implies little guys struggling to buy three-flats in Edgewater and start up businesses in Uptown — something Mr. Giannoulias says indeed has been accomplished by himself and his father, who founded Broadway Bank in the late 1970s. “Banker” suggests financial savvy, a point the Web site underlines in reporting that Crain’s “has ranked Broadway Bank as the No. 1 bank in Illinois for the past four years based on return on assets.”
Indeed, we did. Good things surely do happen at Mr. Giannoulias’ bank. But there are a few other things voters might want to know before putting a 29-year-old Democrat who never has held government office in charge of investing $7 billion of your money each year.
Like how Broadway Bank financed property used for a gun store so notorious that it was sued by Mayor Richard M. Daley and finally shut down by federal authorities. Or how the bank lent money to a crime figure convicted of running a national prostitution ring to buy land in Florida. Not to mention the Texas lawsuit that contends Mr. Giannoulias and the bank “extorted” a nearly $100,000 loan fee. And the $5,000 campaign donation Mr. Giannoulias returned after revelations that the donor bought a fleet of gambling boats from a group including indicted Washington, D.C., lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
Apparently “community” is an expansive term. The specifics:
• According to official property records, Broadway Bank made a series of mortgage loans for as much as $400,000 between 2001 and 2004 to Ugur Yildiz for land at 3309-3315 N. Mannheim Road in Franklin Park. That’s where Bell’s Gun & Sport Shop Inc. has operated since at least the mid-1990s. State records list Mr. Yildiz as the incorporator and agent for the company that owned the business.
Bell’s was sued by the city of Chicago in 1998 over allegations that hundreds of its firearms ended up in the hands of criminals. Though the suit was dismissed, the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) revoked its license last fall because of “serious inventory bookkeeping errors,” says an ATF spokesman. “There’s no denying they sold a large amount of guns that were acquired in criminal investigations,” he adds. New owners since have taken over. ….
There’s more check it out
Comment by Mr. ANON Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 12:37 pm
To Realist, and Downstate, I want to thank you for your words of encouragement. I operate on faith, and pragmatism. Realist, I am a big dreamer. I am also a Realist. I honestly believe the electorate will do the right thing when they have the right candidates running for office.
I happen to believe Barack Obama was no fluke. When I hear Barack speak, I don’t just listen and not hear. I walk away with the messages because the messages he delivers are the recipe for fair and balanced government that’s transparent.
Downstate, thanks for the question. First of all the Democrats have owned the Black votes. Usually when you pay for something you own it (yes, I am talking about vote buying). This is also the reason the Democratic Party feels the Black vote is owed to them. The educated African-American voters understand we don’t owe the Democratic Party a vote. We also understand the Republican Party is not owed a vote either. Our continued support for the Democratic Party is based on failed leadership, lack of a coherent demand for fair representation, and a Republican Party that is worse than the Democratic Party. It comes down to the fact that the basic nature of human beings is to be selfish and self centered. The Democratic establishment understands that. They feed our leaders and force them to sell out the community. African-Americans have a lot of faith in God. It will take the manifestation of our inherent Christian faith that will lead us out of the dark ages of Democratic deception, and Republican missteps.
Don’t be dismayed Downstate. Illinois is about to follow the trend of other parts of the country. We are about to send shock waves around this state and around the country. Don’t be discouraged by Reverend Meeks. There is a subliminal message coming from Reverend Meeks. You must wait until November to see the results of all the undercurrents. The progressives will prevail.
To ArchPundit, I don’t have time for idle chit-chat. If you have a point to make that is clear and answerable, I would love to dialogue with you. Communication is the key to all relationships. These sound bites comments are not productive for advancing any cause.
Comment by Ray Coleman Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 12:39 pm
There’s probably more crossover vote in Cook County, as the Democrat primary will determine who runs the County Board and probably some other key local races. The same is true in party strongholds where the other party is mostly irrelevant…the silly games we play.
Since elections are really just formal surveys, it’s too bad we don’t have instant runoff voting to cut all the tax money wasted on primaries. Simply run campaigns for a year (plenty of time to sling mud and rebut in a much more exciting multi-candidate horse race) then rank every candidate simultaneously and find out what citizen’s really think.
Of course, incumbents succeeded in the existing primary system, so how would getting people’s real opinions improve our government?
Comment by Anonymous Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 2:07 pm
I have recently been noticing that the St. Louis Post Dispatch has been providing excellent coverage of our gubernatorial election… even though they’re in another state! (I am going to be in Missouri this week, helping out with their special election for state senate… The climate there - and the Republican Party there! - is much different from the one in Illinois!!)
Regarding the poll figures, these can be highly misleading, especially with regard to a primary election, when voter turnout is a wild card. Also keep in mind the poll figure that the public sees are different from the ones that each campaign has; the internal polling figures are secret, and are supposed to be more accurate than the public polls (though that may not always be the case). Anyway, polling overall can be very misleading… I have seen major primary-day shockers happen on a number of occasions. And I am only 24.
Comment by Aakash Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 3:35 pm
These numbers roughly track the tracking polls I’ve heard about.
This poll is indeed top-heavy in Cook interviews, as Cook is only 20% of the GOP primary vote (though still the No. 1 county by far, some 50% more than Dupage in 2002.) It is obviously based on overall population distribution. I’m not convinced that it makes a difference between JBT and Oberweis, though, as the downstate HTH with Blago doesn’t show any geographic disparity in favor of Oberweis. His is an ideological campaign, anyway.
A poll that is top-heavy with Cook might overstate Gidwitz a bit, and understate Brady, but that is speculation on my part.
A drop-out by one of the other three at this point would hardly mean the end for JBT. Only Oberweis’ 20% or so hard-core vote strikes me as monolithic. Brady and Gidwitz votes would redistribute, but hardly 100% to one candidate.
Comment by Bubs Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 3:57 pm
The only cross-over will be Dems for Judy, who want an alternative to the Gov. that can win. And that will be very small.
Comment by Anon Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 4:17 pm
This poll does not measure Dem women who are crossing over to vote for Judy. They are pro-choice and hate Blago. She is their savior. Topinka is going to win rather easily.
Comment by Schiznitz Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 6:25 pm
The McSweeney ad is bad because it’s like having your wife or your mommy write a letter of recommendation to a potential employer. And there’s something about his wife’s voice that grates against my nerves.
Comment by Anon Sunday, Mar 12, 06 @ 7:25 pm
Rich — I’ll grant you the on-line data charts could have used a more detailed explanation of the methodology (regarding over-sampling). But if I could make a small request, as the reporter on the accompanying story: Let’s be careful about throwing around terms like “faulty Post-Dispatch reporting,'’ as if someone was misquoted or something.
Comment by Kevin McDermott Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 2:59 am
LOL–as a fan of yours, I can see the point, but the general phrase “faulty Post-Dispatch reporting” is pretty useful unless it is you or Wagman involved.
The last poll the P-D released had a bunch of problems too–I had to get the results from the Hotline–not your fault at all Kevin, but there is a general problem there.
Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 3:29 am
I’ve noticed reporters can beat politicians like a baby seal, but HOWL like a stuck pig if the tables are turned. Funny.
Comment by Schiznitz Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 11:07 am
Reagan Democrat/Reagan Republican, please make up your mind who you are before you post again.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 11:52 am
Another nice thing about instant run-off is that if something bizarre causes one of your candidates to plummet, you’ve still got backup and the race isn’t over before it really started, such as Jack Ryan.
The voters still have serious choices…and maybe some extra not-so-serious choices, which might add a bit of comedic relief to the tedium of politics.
The media should like the extra ad revenue!
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 3:05 am