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Sunday question

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Illinois

* Your predictions for how this lame duck session will end?

posted by Rich Miller
Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 2:01 pm

Comments

badly…

Comment by bored now Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 2:10 pm
Ah, c’mon, you can do better than that.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 2:13 pm
whimpering without a tax increase.

Comment by Draznnl Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 2:17 pm
Quinn will have a new Budget Director after the tax increase/borrowing gambit results in a failure of both.

Comment by Realist Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 2:23 pm
Members have been protected and coddled for way too long. They will fail to recognize the gravity of the situation and will squander the opportunity this brief window affords them to make tough votes. They will behave just as they did last April and the previous May believing that if only they stick their head in the sand a little longer someone will eventually come forward and fix all their problems without having to take any tough votes. And then the cycle of excuses will begin anew.

Comment by The Captain Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 2:27 pm
sorry, rich, that’s the extend to my insight of the illinois legislature. it feels like this session will end very disappointingly for those of us hoping that the state will get a handle on its problems and start a path towards fiscal sanity…

Comment by bored now Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 2:28 pm
why is a list of receptions listed as subscriber only?

Comment by Shore Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 2:48 pm
I predict that the House Republicans will offer a realistic plan to balance the budget without a tax increase.
I also predict that the Cubs will win a playoff game next year.
Admittedly, I have a long history of making ridiculous predictions.
All snark aside, I predict that Quinn will do what Todd Stroger did — pass a huge tax increase thinking that the voters will forget in four years. Just like with Todd, they won’t.

Comment by Skeeter Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 2:48 pm
Shore, because I said so.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 2:50 pm
I don’t know whether Quinn et al. have a backup plan if the tax increase package is not palatable or loses. I have no reason to believe that they do.

In my opinion, Madigan played politics when he had an opportunity to rally support for the temporary tax increase bill in 2009, which was much smaller. Waiting for the budget deficit to grow and then getting behind larger tax increase legislation has a very good chance of backfiring.

My fear as a unionized state employee is that the failure to raise revenue now might result in a political situation like one that is happening in Wisconsin, wherein a governor will want to decimate public employee unions, who will increasingly be seen as being responsible for the financial mess.

Comment by Grandson of Man Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 2:51 pm
I agree with Gil and Grandson.

Comment by Cheryl44 Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:01 pm
It will end as the first step toward the Michiganization of Illinois.

Comment by DuPage Moderate Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:04 pm
Cheryl44,

I think Gil wants public employee unions to be decimated, as I put it. That would be done via outlawing collective bargaining.

Comment by Grandson of Man Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:04 pm
I’ll try. Taxes raised to 4%, property tax rebate nixed. I really hope they don’t slam business with the proposed hike. And the Cubs make it to the playoffs.

Comment by Wensicia Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:05 pm
Also, Grandson of Man… The decimation of the Unions in Illinois would save our state, not destroy it. Enjoy not being laid off for the next three years with your raise guaranteed! Ridiculous.

Comment by heet101 Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:08 pm
Deleted heet101, I put a lot of work into that list. If I want to make it for subscribers, I can do so. If you don’t like it, bite me.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:11 pm
heet101,

Just because I’m in a union doesn’t mean I need to have that end. Nothing precludes my employer from tough negotiations and a take-it-or-leave-it approach.

Comment by Grandson of Man Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:16 pm
Hey, Rich, don’t you think ‘bugger off’ comes prerry close to profanity?

Comment by DuPage Moderate 2 Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:17 pm
DM2, yes, it does. It’s now a banned word, as a matter of fact. It wasn’t on my list before. lol

Sorry. I should’ve just said “bite me.” I changed it.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:25 pm
I am profoundly saddened by the state into which Illinois has gotten itself. This state has so much going for it that it has simply squandered. We have a better than average educated workforce, we have a tradition of being willing to spend the money for decent schools (everyplace except Chicago) and public services. We’re spending enough money that we should have far better public services than we do. I blame the historical pandering to the unions for a large part of the problem. When I finally understood that the purpose of the unions is NOT to contribute to the betterment of the state but instead to improve pay and benefits FOR THEIR DUES PAYING MEMBERS, I realized that they are not, at all, part of the solution to our problems.

Now — I am not bashing public employees. They are doing, pretty much, the best they can under really difficult circumstances. And I don’t think, overall, their pay is excessive. (In some cases, the comparatively generous pension system is making up for many years of poor pay.)

But I think our leaders need to take a deep breath, figure out what is reasonable for the taxpayers AND for the state employees, and take the tough decisions necessary to implement this.

Do I think that will happen? Not a chance.

Comment by DuPage Moderate 2 Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:27 pm
The Real question is did the House even meet today? I know the Senate is due to meet Monday Afternoon.

Comment by John Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:30 pm
This lame-duck session will “Quack up.”

Comment by You Can't Stop What's Coming Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:33 pm
John, Exec is meeting now. The House will convene afterward.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:35 pm
Rich,
Thanks. Something must be up if it’s in Executive Session. Maybe they don’t have the votes? So who knows how this will end.

Comment by John Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:36 pm
They’ll crank it back to 4.25 on the personal and equivalent ratio on corporate to keep it under 10% with the replacement tax. It will pass both houses, magically, with the bare minimum.

I’m guessing the GOP leadership won’t holler too much about that. They’d like the issue to go away and let the Dems wear the jacket.

If that doesn’t happen, you’re all in for a long summer.

Comment by wordslinger Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 3:46 pm
Wordslinger is probably not too far off the mark. A tax increase will definitely pass. Everyone’s talking about Quinn’s backup plan like that matters. Madigan runs this show and in the end, Quinn will sign almost any tax increase that makes it to his desk. Madigan does have a plan. Everything that has gone on in the House in the last month didn’t just materialize out of thin air. I agree that they’ve all been coddled too much and don’t really seem to understand the dire circumstances here, but when the push from the top comes, there will be enough votes.

Comment by end it Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 4:11 pm
Wordslinger and end it,
This Republican agree with you something is going to happen. I think what it will end up being is a 33% increase in the income tax with the Corporate Tax Rate likely going from 4.8% to 6-6.5% give or take and the Cigarette Tax Increase will stay as is most likely.

I don’t know of anything but they have to have a backup plan Mike Madigan is not dumb enough not to have one.

JP

Comment by John Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 4:47 pm
Madigan’s state rep job and position in the Illinois Democratic Party are as secure as it gets, in politics. He has political flexibility. He can get on both sides of unpopular bills, like he did when he didn’t support the smaller income tax bill of 2009 and like he’s doing now with this very unpopular legislation.

Comment by Grandson of Man Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 5:02 pm
If MJM says it shall be so…then it shall, although his TABOR plan did not…or did he really want that to pass in the first place?

Comment by DoubleD Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 6:01 pm
Always nice to see a number of “excused absences” when it’s crunch time, and there is a HUGE tax increase vote on the menu.

Comment by Quinn T. Sential Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 6:04 pm
Middle class taxpayers have little clout but the corporate sector has big clout. It would be politically risky to reduce the corporate proposal and leave the personal proposal at 2.25. In order to appease the corporates, the personal goes up 1.0 plus .25 to pay off the big loan. The .25 is temporary. The “education” (heh heh) 1.0 is permanent. The corporate proposal is also reduced, not sure to what.

Of course, as others have said, negotiators always ask for more than they really will take. So this could all be choreographed.

I would note that when I called our Democratic leaders yesterday to oppose the income tax increase I got a range of response. At Madigan’s office, a nice young man answered the phone and took down my name and address and recommendation. Quinn’s mailbox was full. Nobody answered Cullerton’s phone. No answer to state rep, state sen (Harmon, Lilly) e-mails. One out of five. So much for responsive government. Easier to live in the bubble even when you are going for billions in new cash.

.

Comment by cassandra Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 6:11 pm
The only thing the big tax proposal has going for it is that it will set Illlinois on the path to solvency, and nothing less extreme will do that. So other than the fact that it faces economic reality squarely, it is bad. It reminds me of Winston Churchill’s dictum that democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others. The tax proposal outlined by Cullerton in his presser is the worst solution to our problems, except for all the others. No amount of political posturing, whining, maneuvering, etc., is going to change that.

Comment by jake Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 7:09 pm
“They’ll crank it back to 4.25 on the personal and equivalent ratio on corporate to keep it under 10% with the replacement tax. It will pass both houses, magically, with the bare minimum.”

That sounds plausible to me. Keeping the corporate tax under that double digit psychological barrier is critical.

Comment by Bookworm Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 7:09 pm
My guess: We’ll time out this GA, without a tax increase, and it will come out that Madigan and Cullerton could never quite get Quinn’s focus and pragmatic participation. In the coming months, the State’s finances will completely deteriorate, and one fiscal crisis after another will ensue. There will be rumbles about recalling the Governor (an ironic development, given that it was Quinn’s idea), and then finally things will come around to what Madigan suggested all along (whatever that is). Play ball now or later, but play ball you will.

Comment by Anon Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 8:15 pm
– There will be rumbles about recalling the Governor (an ironic development, given that it was Quinn’s idea)–

How?

Comment by wordslinger Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 8:18 pm
Never mind, I forgot that it passed. Mea culpa.

Comment by wordslinger Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 8:27 pm
4.25% will be the negotiated number with 2% cuts, corp goes up 1%, no property tax changes, Spending caps will be adopted by GA or Quinn. that way all the sides get something. Unfortunately it will not solve the basic issues. It’ll slow the process, but anyone doing business with the state will still get dinged by cuts and increased real costs in the rest of the world that continue to inch upward.

Comment by zatoichi Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 9:02 pm
Four year increase in the personal income tax to 4.5%, 7.2% corporate income tax rate.

If they’re smart, Democrats will pay for the cut in corporate income tax rate by sunsetting most if not all corporate tax expenditures.

Workers’ comp won’t pass.

Tax hike passes without any Republican votes.

No new money for schools or human services. Madigan wants to tie education money to reforms, and human services are the little sister that’s just along for the ride.

Gambling expansion to fund borrowing to pay off past due bills.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 10:00 pm
4.25% +/- makes sense. A permanent +1% (individuals from 3% to 4%) with the cuts that have been made and with ongoing fiscal restraint seems sufficient in the absence of the recession’s effects and of the backlog of unpaid bills; in other words the portion of the structural deficit that could not be resolved without a tax increase even if the recession had not occurred.

Dealing with the recession’s effects and backlog is best done through borrowing, which spreads costs over the long-term so as not to hurt recovery further in the short-term. It helps that interest rates are currently still favorable. Add 0.25-0.50% to cover bonds to catch up with payments and to buffer most of the recession’s fy11/fy12 effects.

On the political side, it will take fear to get an increase passed. If the sj-r is correct that borrowing takes a super-majority, then what brings in the Republican votes? Fear that this is the last opportunity they will see for workers comp reform, fear that businesses will fail if the State does not pay its bills, and fear of a general State fiscal disaster that can be blamed on them for not supporting borrowing. What gets the Democrats who are hoping for more to accept a lower increase? The need to have Republican support for borrowing, fear of a huge number of social service and other agencies going under if they are not paid soon, and fear that this is their last opportunity to get most of what they want.

But this has to unfold at the last hour when backs are against the wall. Presumably this is why there is the rush to have a workers comp bill to dangle as part of the package.

It will be surprising if a deal is not worked out. It will also be catastrophic.

Comment by east central Sunday, Jan 9, 11 @ 10:05 pm
No tax hike. No workers comp reform. Fiscal picture worsens. Can’t expect different results with the same cast of characters. No real reform or budget resold until Madigan leaves the GA.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 12:46 am
@east central -

It does take a super-majority to approve borrowing, but only a majority to approve the revenue stream.

IF Democrats approve a .25% tax increase to provide a revenue stream for borrowing to eliminate the state’s backlog of unpaid bills, I expect the Republicans to get on board sooner or later.

The money is going to be spent one way or another. But right now, we’re paying the state’s vendors 1% interest per month. That’s an awful interest rate compared to any borrowing plan.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 1:57 am