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Bean releases poll

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• Illinois

I wrote about this in this morning’s Capitol Fax, but since Melissa Bean’s campaign has issued a press release, I figured it was safe to disclose it now.

LAKE ZURICH – With three weeks to go before the election, Melissa Bean has surged in the polls and is now in a statistical dead heat with U.S. Rep. Phil Crane in the campaign to represent Illinois’ 8th Congressional district.  Melissa Bean has closed to within two points, 44%-46%, against Crane, the most senior Republican in the House of Representatives, according to polling released by the Bean campaign. [Snip]

Since June, Bean has increased her support among all partisan groups, especially the pivotal groups of Independents and Republicans. [Snip]

Just 37% rated Crane’s performance as a Member of Congress as “excellent” or “good” while 47% rated his performance as “only fair” or “poor.”  Crane has a favorable rating of just 38% positive and 29% negative. [Snip]

The results are a summary of findings from a telephone survey conducted by Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal among 400 likely voters in the Eighth Congressional District of Illinois. Interviews were conducted October 6-7, 2004. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

That’s a pretty high margin of error.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 14, 04 @ 4:12 pm

Comments

1. I’ve looked at polls for senate and president on other websites and it looks like the margin of error is usually somewhere between 4-7 points. 4.9% doesn’t seem high to me.

   Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 14, 04 @ 7:59 pm

2. the “margin of error” is miller’s

   Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 14, 04 @ 8:12 pm

3. A 2-point lead with a 5 percent margin of error means the lead has only a 66 percent chance of being correct. A 2-point lead with a 3 percent margin of error jacks that probability up to 75 percent.

   Start here for more.

   Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 14, 04 @ 8:51 pm

4. So what will be the impact of the Lahood jugernaut on this race….$15K and a busload of precinct walkers vs. public comments critical of his fellow republican….

   Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 15, 04 @ 10:15 am

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