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Notice that this is the first time that the Tribune has published a poll on the county board president’s race. I figured that meant their last poll had Stroger with a huge lead. Maybe I’m just cynical.
The poll of 475 Cook County registered voters likely to cast ballots in the Democratic primary showed Stroger leading Claypool 47 percent to 37 percent. The survey was conducted Wednesday through Sunday by Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect and has an error margin of 5 percentage points.The poll showed that although a plurality of voters have a favorable impression of Stroger and believe he is doing a good job, his favorability and job approval numbers are below 50 percent, an indication of vulnerability for an incumbent.
Among city voters, Stroger holds a 19 percentage point lead, while Claypool has a 6 point lead in the suburbs. Three-fourths of black voters say they prefer Stroger, who is black, while 54 percent of white voters say they support Claypool, who is white.
Stroger’s 41 percent job approval rating in the suburbs is only 4 percentage points below his countywide rating, an indication Claypool has not fully made a case for change among a portion of the electorate whose support he badly needs.
No kidding.
UPDATE: Bill Clinton appears in Stroger radio ads.
UPDATE: You all know by now that Stroger is in the hospital. Let’s keep the rumors to a minimum, shall we? I’m going to go back and delete a few comments here because they are just too over the top. We’ll all know more soon. (And for crying out loud, people, the man is in the hospital, so let’s keep the nastiness at bay.)
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 3:35 am
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As you speculate, the Tribune may have withheld an earlier poll showing President Stroger way ahead (why, might we ask?), but it is interesting and instructive to note that in January the SunTimes reported on a poll by the Glengariff group that showed Claypool ahead by 3% — and now Stroger is ahead by 10%. That reversal may indicate that there is a surge for Stoger that has been developing despite all the negative campaigning.
Also, note that the tightening race in the Republican Primary for Governor may bode ill for CLaypool by pulling a lot of white suburban male independents away from Claypool since that seems to be his biggest base of support.
Comment by Dem Bob Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 4:21 am
Remember what the late Mike Royko told people to do when a pollster calls them… lie.
I am more than a bit skeptical about any single poll dealing with a race that cuts so closely to the heart of Democratic machine. In any case, should Stroger prevail (Heaven Forbid!) on March 21, you can put me down as the first person to join Democrats for Peraica on March 22.
As for Bill Clinton’s endorsement of Stroger, I guess I’ll have to rethink any idea of supporting his wife in the future. How can I support the Clintons if Bubba is so clearly out of touch with the problems here in Cook County?
In the meantime, I’ll spend this last week concentrating on electing my good friend Frank Avila to the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District in the Democratic Primary.
RANDALL SHERMAN
Secretar/Treasurer, Illinois Committee for Honest Government
Comment by Randall Sherman Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 8:46 am
The Chicago Tribune is reporting that Stroger has been admitted to the hospital feeling “tired”. Anybody else think that this might change this race in the last week?
Comment by good guys wear black Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 8:59 am
I’m still undecided on the race for Metropolitan Water Reclamation District. Any idea when Clinton plans to announce his endorsements?
Comment by soccermom Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 10:01 am
Clinton is with Bogislaw “Bogie” Stefanski for Water Reclamation District.
Comment by Just Observing Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 10:08 am
Hey guys, word to the wise, this Tribune poll is waaaay off. I’ve been spending a lot of time in the 6th, 7th, 9th, and 34rd ward and I am finding very little interest in Stroger. I suspect a sampling error by the Tribune.
I wish Stroger a speedy recovery.
Comment by jlk Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 11:38 am
Hope Stroger’s feeling better, but the timing of this episode certainly can’t help him next week. Might reinforce with some people that he’s getting up there in years, has been in office forever, etc.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 12:25 pm
So I read Stroeger is in the hospital for leg pain, but it’s not Stroeger Hospital. Is Rush closer to the county building?
Yes, it is a serious question. I live 50 miles away.
Comment by Cal Skinner Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 12:31 pm
He was not at the County Building when he was taken to the Hospital. The ambulance took him to Advocate and his own doc had him transferred to Rush.
Comment by good guys wear black Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 12:36 pm
Let’s say that Stroger wins narrowly next Tuesday.
Is there any sort of realistic chance that Peraica might defeat him in November or is that just wishful thinking for Cook County Republicans?
Might Claypool decide to support Peraica, either tacitly or openly?
Comment by Establishment Republican Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 1:11 pm
Just a warning, rumors and ugly comments about Stroger’s hospitalization will be deleted. If you are deleted more than once, you could be banned, so please stop now.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 1:40 pm
Rich,
It does make one wonder if Stroger’s hospitalization will make a difference in this election. The man is in his 70’s and had quadruple heart surgery in the past.
This is “crunch time” and will make some voters think twice. Do they vote for someone who might step down (or worse) and then be replaced by the insiders or vote for someone else that was chosen by a public vote?
Comment by Nearly Normal Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 2:06 pm
This from the Claypool campaign:
For those who work closely with election stats, the poll published in this morning’s Chicago Tribune raises more questions than it answers. But, when you put it together with our own tracking data from this past week, it begins to paint a picture of how Forrest will win this race.
Our poll, a more extensive and in-depth survey of those who actually have a history of primary voting, shows Forrest just one point ahead of John Stroger. And, among the subset of voters who say they’re “paying close attention to the race,†and are likely to vote on Tuesday, he enjoys a 7 point lead. With a sample of 700 voters conducted by the Bennenson Strategy Group, we feel very confident in these numbers.
When we re-weight the Tribune poll to more accurately reflect the turnout numbers from past primary elections, the newspaper’s numbers come out looking a lot like ours
Comment by Claypool Responds Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 2:22 pm
A couple of quick points here: IN my experience, it`s the polling in the CHICAGO TRIBUNE that is consistently the poorest predictor of the actual vote result on Election Day. I`m sure Market Shares has a stellar reputation but I remember more than a few examples where their polls just did not match the actual result. The Sun-Times` polling is far more accurate, it`s a shame they do so little of it anymore.
As for Stroger….don`t kid yourself, this changes the tenor of the race especially since the County Bd. President is holding onto a slim 10-point lead. Stroger is spending the night in the hospital so this will reinforce the imagery of a 76-yr.-old man who`s fought diabetes, heart problems and weight issues. I would think the Stroger strategists would want to get him out of the hospital as quickly as possible.
Comment by Jimmy P. Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 4:53 pm
Nobody will vote Tuesday = Stroger win by 9 points
Comment by thomas paine Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 5:08 pm
Sorry..guess I should have posted to this thread…I’m with Jimmy P. I’m active on the southwest side and it was going to be pulling teeth just to carry Stroger in a precinct. If there’s doubt his health, forget it.
Comment by Napoleon Dynamite Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 5:58 pm
The entire tenor of this race has changed. At this hour, The CHICAGO TRIBUNE website has confirmed that John Stroger suffered a stroke.
Comment by Jimmy P. Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 5:59 pm
Indeed, it appears that Stroger suffered a stroke. What the concequences of the stroke will mean for future, it’s still unkown. However, voters need to look at this race much more closely because I believe that Stroger will not be able to carry out his duties if he were to be elected to another term.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 6:14 pm
This does change things dramatically. Hope he recovers.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 6:17 pm
There’s no reason, medically, that a person who suffers a stroke and recovers shouldn’t be able to perform his or her duties. Clearly the President will need to recover, but he will not be ther first elected official to carry out their duties after a stroke.
As for the political implications, the 10 point lead is consistent with all the in-house polls prior to its release. Clearly the Trib was not happy with the results it was getting before today, and so it held off on the poll.
Don’t be surprised if there is a significant uptick in Stroger support from the areas that were going to support him anyway, which will compensate for any dropoff that comes from concerns about his health. Additionally, look for Claypool to try and promise the moon to every committeman in Cook County in order to get them to lay down on Tuesday. Claypool knows that the committemen maximize their influence with a Stroger win–whether he serves the term out, or sees the election through to the end.
In other words, why would the committeemen surrender their influence to Claypool if, in the back of their minds, they become more powerful if Stroger wins (and either doesn’t run in November or runs but retires during the term).
Now is the time A LOT of electeds will want the status quo, not the unknown.
So this is as bad a situation for Claypool as it is, personally, for John Stroger.
Comment by Wow Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 6:59 pm
It is very unfortunate that President Stroger suffered a stroke and our prayers are with him.
BREAKING NEWS:
Word has it the Claypool Campaign has already started pulling their contrast ads off of the air - lest the Campaign be deemed “insensitive.”
What’s fascinating, however, is that the Stroger Campaign is continuing to hammer away at Mr. Claypool with a very heavy broadcast and cable buy in the Chicago market.
Some may argue that Claypool is “doing the right thing” here - certainly the “sensitive” thing to do - but an argument can be made that the President’s condition is not justification enough to “drop your dukes” and stop defending yourself with just one week remaining in a race that Tribune polling shows (with margin of error +/- 5%) as a potential dead-heat.
Stroger will continue to hammer Claypool thru Friday with his attack ads while Claypool airs “warm-and-fuzzy” puff spots. It’s doubtful anyone envies the position Claypool’s consultants are in - a true Catch-22. But, if Stroger eeks this one out in a nail-biter, this strategic move by Claypool will likely catch the blame.
Again, best wishes to President Stroger for a speedy recovery - he’s a decent man with a big heart and I’m sure Mr. Claypool is equally concerned for his health.
But what an unbelievable turn of events at precisely the worst time for the Claypool Camp…
Comment by Tom DeLay's Mom Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 7:10 pm
Very interesting comments from Wow! at 6:59. I still believe today`s medical developments change the race dramatically. I`m unable to see any major positive fall-out for the Board President. Stroger has been in less than optimum physical condition for many years now and that observation is only exacerbated by what happened earlier today.
As for the comment on the status quo, you make a very good point there, but as far as the fifth floor of City Hall is concerned, it`s a “win-win” no matter who emerges as the winner next Tuesday night. Claypool has ties to Mayor Daley that are as definitive as Stroger`s. Claypool served as Daley`s chief of staff and also was head of the Park District under Daley`s reign. I sincerely doubt the Mayor will be “put-out” if John Stroger doesn`t win next week? Plus, the Mayor always has his Ace in the Hole, his brother John is the head of the Finance Committee at the County Board and that will not change under either Claypool and Stroger. The purse strings will still be controlled by the Daley “combine,” to use a John Kass term. So don`t kid yourself, for the powers-that-be, there will not be a major sea change if Forrest Claypool wins the Democratic Primary on March 21st.
As for the observation of
Comment by Jimmy P. Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 7:21 pm
I’m surprised by the people that think this is bad for Claypool’s campaign… while, it is unfortunate from a political perspective that Claypool had to pull the negative ads or look mean-spirited, I think this just might seal Claypools election as people will be uncertain what a post-stroke-Stroger will bring. In some ways it is bad for Claypool as it seems like he is still the underdog, but positive Claypool ads coupled with news stories of an ailing Stroger just might do it. I don’t mean to sound cold or uncaring… I certainly wish Stroger all the best and a speedy recovery, but I’m speaking strictly from a political perspective.
Comment by Just Observing Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 7:51 pm
Quite possible, Jimmy P. But I am not sure that local committeemen and the Mayor are on the same page on this one. Particularly because a vote for Stroger is a vote for control of the nomination and the Presidency, eventually. A vote for Claypool means dealing with Claypool, and if the Mayor is the only one who gets deference in a Claypool administration, that may mean everyone else gets shut out. It’s not just about the Mayor. Not much of an incentive for committeemen to move to Claypool.
Cannot discount the urgency that this now brings to the campaign for both sides. But now, unlike before, Stroger supporters have a true rallying “cause,” an emotional reason to support the President that didnt exist before today for most. Plus, this is the most media that one will see on this race: first a poll showing a ten point lead, now a medical condition and the difficulty of a challenger to address it without coming off mean.
Comment by Wow Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 8:10 pm
Are we delicately avoiding the issue here, Wow? If so, I appreciate the delicacy and I`ll withdraw the issue, but if the President is severly incapicatated after today`s episode yet still manages to win re-election, that would mean someone else (unknown at this point) would get to pull the strings and determine the priorities? Perhaps that is what these committemen are holding onto ever so tightly, the fact that nature abhors a void and will move quickly to fill it? I understand Chicago politics as well as anyone here and if that`s the real issue, disguised ever so cleverly behind the language, well, then no one should really be surprised? This is, after all, Chicago.
Comment by Jimmy P. Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 9:06 pm
Wow! is definitely on to something. Mike Flannery just reported on ch. 2 news at 10PM that 7th Ward alderman and committeeman Bill Beavers is preparing for a full-scale effort on behalf of John Stroger next Tuesday. Beavers has no qualifiers, his ward will go all out for the Co. Bd. President. Meanwhile, ch. 2 medical editor Mary Anne Childers reports that Stroger is unable to walk or move his left arm. His speech is severly slurred and yet the campaign continues. I could insert a comment here, but I think this report speaks for itself.
Comment by Jimmy P. Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 10:18 pm
Lights are still on at Camp Claypool tonight. Word has it they were holding onto a bombshell for the last week that they can’t now release without being the heavies, and Pres. Stroger’s stroke has changed the entire campaign. Think Axelrod’s finally met his match, beaten not by Stroger but by fate?
Comment by middleman Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 10:29 pm
Anyone notice that Stroger went to Rush nd not Stroger Hospital?
Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Mar 15, 06 @ 6:44 am
I’mjust saying that if I had a hospital with my name on it, I’d try to make it there. Unless i didn’t trust them.
Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Mar 15, 06 @ 7:13 am
Gee, Wumpus, is that what you’re saying? None of us got it. Thanks for explaining it.
So lame, indeed.
Comment by Wow Wednesday, Mar 15, 06 @ 3:02 pm